Oso planning to go pro
When I say full shutdown, I am largely saying what places like CT did. Other states really never went there. They allowed employers to determine who was "essential". In some of these areas that meant many businesses just deemed most of their staff "essential". And businesses labeled themselves as "essential". Some of those areas are particularly hard hit right now.
So here is what is interesting to me. What do you do about a place like Ohio? You have the case explosions, but even assuming 2 week lags, hospitalizations and deaths aren’t following, both well below 21 day averages. Outside of a boilerplate “just wait 2 more weeks!!” response. What do you do with a state that has cases ramping without the “severe” cases or effects? Whether this be from a weakened strain, less intense exposure, younger patients whatever.
I think most states need a full 4-week shutdown. And I mean full, grocery stores being an exception. After that reopen, but this time no bars, or inside seating at restaurants. Most other things can safely reopen with social distancing and masks. If we do that now, we may be able to save some concept of school this fall. What we can't afford is to go into fall/winter at all time high trending of cases.
I would let the data guide the response. What is their contact tracing saying. Family events, frat parties, bars. Then use public health communication or action if needed to reduce the activity.
So here is what is interesting to me. What do you do about a place like Ohio? You have the case explosions, but even assuming 2 week lags, hospitalizations and deaths aren’t following, both well below 21 day averages. Outside of a boilerplate “just wait 2 more weeks!!” response. What do you do with a state that has cases ramping without the “severe” cases or effects? Whether this be from a weakened strain, less intense exposure, younger patients whatever.Mandate masks and emphasize the isolating of at risk? And see where you go? I feel like full lockdown in that scenario is a tough sell. It’s totally merited and needed for places like FL or TX that are getting ripped up by their true first waves, but the others are more nuanced.Also, unrelated, if I there is one thing I look forward to not hearing about ever again post COVID, it’s people trying to honestly use New Zealand as a comparative success to critique other countries response. The US could have Fauci with unilateral unchecked power to dictate COVID response and it would be a stupid flawed comparison
A large group of other states like Louisiana, Wisconsin, South Carolina, North Carolina, and more, likely should shut down. They are teetering on the edge right now, and gambling that mask-measures will be enough to turn the corner. If they are wrong, it will get significantly worse. The safe bet is a 2-4 week shutdown.
Now why would Wisconsin be in “should shut down” more than Ohio? Still very low in total cases, no meaningful spikes in hospitalizations to accompany rising case numbers, and deaths still tending downward. I believe I saw a positivity rate of between 6-7%. I couldn’t find the the R0, but it looks like another situation like Ohio where risings cases are not being followed by escalating hospitalizations and deaths. My buddy who basically vacillates between 2 hospitals in the MKE as a perfusionist said they have no meaningful buzz or pop in hospitalizations in either of them. I totally agree about the shutdown needed for places in the SunBelt that are getting explosive. But I don’t see it for somewhere like Ohio or Wisconsin. Mask up and social distance, sure absolutely, but the curve is already still flat for everything but cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.htmlDidn't see this posted anywhere.This seems like a bad decision.
Sounds like a good idea, but....trump just ordered hospitals to bypass CDC and send data to White House. Keeps getting worse, bordering on criminal.
I am torn on this from what I have read. Clearly there is a data problem at the CDC and Birx is extremely upset with the info an manner they are reporting. Apparently hospitals are already reporting to the CDC and doing things again to other agencies just to satisfy all demands. So there is a legitimate case to be made to change this. Alternatively, even prior republican appointed admins in the public health space feel like the tactic here is not right and they should fix the CDC instead of re-routing data/info. Plus the trust levels are clearly at an all time low.So even if we think the intention could be pure, it has the appearance of another ham-handed way to generate even more distrust than already exists. Health Professionals all seem to know this is unusual and not right. Yet no communication even trying to justify it. Mind boggling.
RNC scale being reduced.Good. Glad to see there is some sense of reason.
Deaths about to skyrocket.
Is this just a random prediction or is there an article or other factor prompting you to post this?