6 year outlook -

[Friends call me Shaka]

Like many on the board, I was disappointed with the hire, but trying to come to terms with what the BOT was thinking. Given that we are probably paying Buzz somewhere around 600K($3.6M) and have a buyout of 300K(just a guess), our investment is relatively light. Also, assume Miller's buyout was $2M as reported. I will try and map out worse case scenario how this may make economic sense -

Year 1 - the 3 amigos return and have familar face to coach them who they seem to like. Little upheaval in the program and maybe we make a run at Sweet 16. Sr go out knowing what they did to save program and everyone feels good. Our investment now drops to $3M remaining.

Year 2- he convinces Taylor/Williams to stay and we have a rebuilding year- any coach would have had this so its not a surprise when we finish in bottom half of Big East. Now we down to $2.4M remaining. Any coach is going have problems after the sr. leave.

Year 3- maybe we land a top 100 guy and pipe stays healthy, but we stink on the court and people call for his head. SC has now had 3 years to look at coaching landscape and the job is more attractive because there is upside to grow the program up vs. maintain as it is today. We are down to only $1.8M remaining on contract(less than Miller's buyout) and we get a new coach. We paid out $1.8M, and got a chance to see what the guy could do in a transitional period.

that is worse case - best case, he turns into a great hire and we have a steal(of course what good is a contract) for 6 years.

[ErickJD08]

Thats the worst case for Buzz, not Marquette.  What happens after three years when the program is in the toilet?  You think Marquette can make a big hire then?  I am supporting Buzz but Marquette had a chance to make a big name hire and didn't.  Lets hope it was the right or at least, a decent move.

[Norm]

In the worse case scenario I would think that neither Taylor or Nick Williams ever even enroll at MU, which makes year 2 in your scenario even scarier.

[mu_hilltopper]

Yup.  Your worst case scenario isn't even close to worse case.

Year 1 - The 3 senior starters stay .. While I never believed Crean was a great X/O coach, Buzz can't be much better with how little HC experience he has.   Buzz wins 2 less than Crean would have in BRUTAL BE, we make the NCAAs as a 10 seed, one and done.

Year 2- TT, Williams, no Top 100 guy comes to MU because who the hell is Buzz?  We go 8-8 in BE, and go to NIT.

Year 3- Still no Top 100 guy recruited, because the perception is MU is in the toilet.  We go 6-12 in the BE, are lucky the BET now lets all 16 teams play.

There's your worst-case scenario.

[Phi Iota Gamma 84]

Before PRN hijacks with negativity

No way we go 9-9 I think 11-7 or 10-6

Year 2 Buzz keeps 3 Eric Williams (top 50) 4 Mbakwe stays and 5 Otule develops
Need 1 Cubillan or Ack and a 2 Lazar

Still an over 500 team in BE

Year 3 your set at 2 to 5 need a point 

[MUinCO]

Scenario 1
We will have a new coach before his contract is up.  Our still very wet behind the ears, 35-year-old former assistant, gets eaten alive on a nightly basis by the likes of Boeheim, Pitino, Calhoun, Huggins, Thompson, Dixon, -shutter-Brey, etc., etc. and by year 4 he's done.

Probably unfair, but he will be judged way more harshly than Crean ever was simply because this is his first "real" head coaching gig and most of the national press is completely underwhelmed with our choice for HC.

Scenario 2
He convinces the likes of Taylor/Hurley to come to MU, lands even more superstar recruits, and displays outstanding head coaching talent right out the gate in his first gig at major D1 program.  Leads our guys through some surprising upsets, finishes no lower than 4 or 5 in the BE and gets at least into the 2nd round.

Again, unfair, but that one little final four ride allowed Crean to ride a wave of mediocre post season success for several years without any real pressure…Buzz won't have this luxury.  He will have to totally kick butt right out the gate and do as well or better than TC or it all collapses like a house of cards and he faces the firing squad.

[Friends call me Shaka]

understood that the worst case scenario can get really ugly in Year 3, but just trying to understand (more from economic viewpoint) what the BOT was thinking. Basically, maybe that thought we can get an "interim" coach while giving him a 6 year deal and not really being out that much cash if it doesn't work out.

At the end of year 3, they can determine if we are better or worse off. A new coach coming in would probably want to try and build something up without the pressure vs. maintain....

Sorry - just trying to play contrarian and make sense of what is going on in their heads....

[MUinCO]

understood that the worst case scenario can get really ugly in Year 3, but just trying to understand (more from economic viewpoint) what the BOT was thinking. Basically, maybe that thought we can get an "interim" coach while giving him a 6 year deal and not really being out that much cash if it doesn't work out.

At the end of year 3, they can determine if we are better or worse off. A new coach coming in would probably want to try and build something up without the pressure vs. maintain....

Sorry - just trying to play contrarian and make sense of what is going on in their heads....

I think that makes sense.  The fact is, and thanks in part to Wade, is that MU will not fall as far as it did pre-Crean.  We'll still be in the BE, we did just pay the last guy $1.6M and can do it again, we still have great facilities, etc.  IF we fall, it will only be as far as the seat and not quite all the way into the toilette.

[tower912]

Whatever, the scenario, PRN complains.

[77ncaachamps]

Thats the worst case for Buzz, not Marquette.  What happens after three years when the program is in the toilet?  You think Marquette can make a big hire then?  I am supporting Buzz but Marquette had a chance to make a big name hire and didn't.  Lets hope it was the right or at least, a decent move.

Would love to know what big name hires would have MU landed realistically?

Is Trent Johnson a big name hire?

Is Tony Bennett a big name hire?

Would $1.2 million a year for Tony Bennett be okay with you?

IMHO, there weren't many big names available, and much less big enough names that would give MU a sniff. It's the latter part of that sentence that troubles me the most.

[MUinCO]

Thats the worst case for Buzz, not Marquette.  What happens after three years when the program is in the toilet?  You think Marquette can make a big hire then?  I am supporting Buzz but Marquette had a chance to make a big name hire and didn't.  Lets hope it was the right or at least, a decent move.

Would love to know what big name hires would have MU landed realistically?

Is Trent Johnson a big name hire?

Is Tony Bennett a big name hire?

Would $1.2 million a year for Tony Bennett be okay with you?

IMHO, there weren't many big names available, and much less big enough names that would give MU a sniff. It's the latter part of that sentence that troubles me the most.

For us yes they were in our league as a "big name hire."  Bennett has, at the very least, proven results as a Head Coach of a D1 program in a major conference.  He has actually led a program, with minimal resources mind you, into the tournament.

I would have paid him $1.5M.

[mwbauer7]

Worst case scenario is SC still being around in 3 years.


edit: SC being Steve Cottingham