Reasonable Expectations

[MDMU04]

What do you all think reasonable expectations for this team's performance in the NCAA tournament look like?

I have been prone to drink a little kool-aid from time to time, and I must confess, I still get a little giddy when I see that Marquette word on the bracket sheet.  I'll always have that obligatory bracket where that Marquette word gets written a few more times than it should, probably just to get it out of my system.  It feels good.  Whatever.

It should be obvious to anyone who cares to pay attention that expectations for this team should go up from years in the more recent past.  This is this current team core's third shot at this thing.  Getting in isn't enough anymore.  It's abundantly clear to me that it is time to win some games.

But looking at this draw, how far does this team realistically have a shot go?  Win one game?  Get a little crazy...scorch the nets for a few games and wind up in the elite eight?  Wet the bed and go into the locker room at halftime down 15 points and only hit like 6 FGs in the first half?  I've seen it all happen.  Hell, it's all happened this season.

Personally, I think tempered expectations for this team are beating Kentucky, and playing tight with Stanford in the 2nd round...being close enough at the end of that game to have a shot fall the right way and knock out the Cardinal.  I am of the opinion that a sweet 16 apperance would slightly exceed my expectations for this team, given the seeding and potential matchups.

[1990Warrior]

I have us losing to Memphis in my bracket, although I think we could play them very tough. In fact, the only teams that I would put in a completely higher caliber than us are NC, Kan and UCLA.

[SoCalEagle]

I expect us to get to the Sweet 16.  This team shouldn't have much of a problem with Kentucky.  A second round win over Stanford, IMO, is likely.  Being on the west coast, I've seen Stanford play a handful of times.  They are good, but not athletic and not as good as half of the teams in the BEast.  I believe that we will handle them pretty easily and win by about 10.  That's what I think, but that and $3.50 will get you a vanilla latte at Starbucks.     

[muarmy81]

I think the sweet 16 is reasonable but I think Texas is the best team in our bracket and that they will make it to the final 4.

[dwaderoy2004]

As far as draws go, this is pretty favorable.  Kentucky frankly, isn't that good, and with Patrick Patterson out, they have no advantages over our team.  A matchup with Stanford is scary because of the Lopez twins, but the Stanford guards are really bad, and if we can pressure them and make it an uptempo game, it's ours for the taking.  Texas is a team eerily similar to us, just with a more consistent point guard in DJ Augustin.  If James can play him to a draw, the rest of their team is nothing we can;t handle.  They have no post bigs and rely on the three.  The problem with both Stanford and Texas is the location of those possible games: Anaheim and Houston. 

Minimum Expectation:  Round of 32
Reasonable Expectation: Sweet 16, but wouldn't be surprised to see us in the Elite Eight. 

[swimmer]

I've got Marquette winning the national championship over Wisconsin in a shoot-out-- 23 to 18.  Wisco will control the tempo in the first half, going into the locker room 9-1 (the one being a Dwight Burke granny freethrow.)  Tom Crean will pull one out of his sleeve and send the team out for the second half in Chuck Taylor's and short shorts, led by none other than one John Glaser (who at halftime found out he still had 20 minutes of eligibility and offered his services to Crean).  Marquette will implement the four corners offense and end each possession with a half court hook shot from Murf, and the rest will be as the say "history."

[BrewCity83]

I'm pretty much in the same camp as the commenters above.  I expect that MU either gets to at least the Sweet 16, or within a really close loss to Stanford of getting to it.  If they lose to Stanford because they play poorly or give the game away, it will be another underchievement.  If they make it to 16, I think pretty much everyone would agree that they met reasonable expectations, and any wins beyond that are "frosting on the gravy".

[CTWarrior]

Reasonable expectation is to win the opening round game and play Stanford close in game 2.  I certainly think we may do better, but at this point I would settle for us winning the game we are supposed to win.  

Since the NCAA officially started seeding, our performance has been:
1979:  Seeded 3, beat 6 Pacific, lost to 2 DePaul
1980:  Seeded 9, lost to 8 Villanova
1982:  Seeded 7, beat 10 Evansville, lost to 2 Missouri
1983:  Seeded 9, lost to 8 Tennessee
1993:  Seeded 12, lose to 5 Oklahoma State
1994:  Seeded 6, beat 11 SW Lousiana, beat 3 Kentucky, lost to 2 Duke
1996:  Seeded 4, beat 13 Monmouth, lose to 12 Arkansas
1997:  Seeded 7, lose to 10 Providence
2002:  Seeded 5, lose to 12 Tulsa
2003:  Seeded 3, beat 14 Holy Cross, beat 6 Missouri, beat 2 Pitt, beat 1 Kentucky, lost to 2 Kansas
2006:  Seeded 7, lose to 10 Alabama
2007:  Seeded 8, lose to 9 Michigan State

Since seeding began, we have only won half the games (4-4) when we were the better seed (6-5 overall as the better seed).  We've lost as a 5, a 7 twice and an 8.  

When we are the worse seed, we are 0-3 in the first round, but 3-7 overall, with two of those wins being our last 2 NCAA meetings with Kentucky.  

[Daniel]

I want to beat Kentucky tomorrow.  Then we can talk some more   Let's get the first one!!  We're good enough fo this so let's do it.....

GO MARQUETTE!!!