10 Seed in the NCAA

[CTWarrior]

Right I'd say we are a 6. 

Win the first game of BET and we are a 5.

Win the second game and we could reach a 4, but most likely stay at a 5.

agree with the first line. i think if we lose in the first round we get a 7. i disagree with the second line i think we need to beat shrek on thurs to get a 5 and make it to the final to get a 4

Lose first round we are an 8 or 9.
Win one we are a 7.
Win two we are a 6.
Win three we are a 5/6.
Win the tournament we are a 4/5.

[scooter]

Right I'd say we are a 6. 

Win the first game of BET and we are a 5.

Win the second game and we could reach a 4, but most likely stay at a 5.

agree with the first line. i think if we lose in the first round we get a 7. i disagree with the second line i think we need to beat shrek on thurs to get a 5 and make it to the final to get a 4

Win the tournament we are a 4/5.

And hopefully not "spent" from playing all those games in such a short time.

[The Lens]

The one thing we have going for us this year is no bad losses.  Another thing is our Last 10 looks ok, should be at worst 7-3 provided we play to our seed in the BET.

[79Warrior]

Excellent point.  The league has caught up to our three amigos.  The way it should be is that the three should be considerably better than the last two years.  They should not have been caught up to.  Their athleticism has improved, their skills have not.  It is tough to win when the other BE teams seem to be constantly improving.  Look at UCONN over the last couple years.  Look at L'Ville this year.  We are moving slowly in the wrong direction.  I hate to say it (but I am used to it as a Cubs fan) but next year is our year.

So if the league has "caught up" to the three amigos, how did we win 11 games in the league....oh, and with the #2 schedule in the conference (perhaps #1 by end of today)?  Makes no sense.

Last year we played an easier Big East schedule...if we played last year's Big East schedule we probably win 13 Big East games this year.

We won 11 games partly because we played 2 more than last year. You also neglect to mention that, while our schedule was tough, we lost most of the tough games.

[mu_hilltopper]

That's the thing that sticks in my belly the most.  Our schedule WAS tough.  And we LOST most of the tough games, which clearly indicates where we stand.  It'd almost be better to NOT have played such a tough slate, so the committee would have to "guess" as to how good we are by using RPI, etc.

I'll say it again .. in order to be a top 50 team, you've gotta play the top 50 and come out with a .500 record to show you belong.

All the RPI and Pomeroy and Sagarin numbers .. they are numerical crap, designed to postulate a ranking based on not-everyone playing everyone.  MU filled in a lot of the data points by playing 11 top 50 teams, and losing to 8 of them.  No fancy logarithmic algebra is necessary. 

2007-8    3 for 11 vs. Top 50 and ..?
2006-7    5 for 11 vs. Top 50 and one and done in NCAAs. 
2005-6    3 for 9  vs. Top 50 and one and done in NCAAs.

I think we prove ourselves, BY WINNING OR LOSING, to be somewhere between #33-64 every year and losing in the first round, rating numbers be damned.  (I'd say #40th each year, including this year.) --

And that's what kills us, is that the experts say we're top 25, the RPI, Pomeroy, say we're top ~25.  But when the rubber hits the road, and we're playing the GAMES that are the only damn thing that really counts, we don't beat top 25 teams at at least a .500 clip.  Those are the expectations that are killing us, and bring out the trolls when we lose.  NO FREAKING WONDER. 

[muwarrior87]

last year our drop in seed was due to losing arguably our best defender. Don't see that happening right now and I hope it doesn't. That being said, we are in the 20's in the rankings right now, divided by 4 teams at each seeding...would mean we're around 5-7. We win our game Wednesday we're at least a 7, win our second round game and probably a 6 since it would be another win against a top 25 team and a top 25 rpi.

[NavinRJohnson]

I his latest Bracketology update (today), JL still has MU as a 5 seed. I think we have work to do to get that, but that's encouraging anyway.

[Avenue Commons]

Does that seem like a logical seed for this team?  Unless they can win 2 in the BE tournament.


I thought they'd lose today, but the flame out wasn't expected.  Not smart with the ball at all.

We're the number 24/25 team in the country. There no way the committee feels we are actually the 40-44th best team in the tournament.

[MuMark]

"I'll say it again .. in order to be a top 50 team, you've gotta play the top 50 and come out with a .500 record to show you belong."

22 teams have a record over .500 against the top 50 this year and that includes Stephen A Austin 1-0 and Geroge Mason 2-1.

7 more have a .500 record on the nose including Boise State(1-1)21-8 record against SOS rated 210 and Wake Forrest (3-3) total record of 17-12 against SOS rated 85.

So that still gives us only 29 teams that fit your criteria of a top 50 team.

Anyone think that Stephen A Austin is better then us? They are 24-4 so maybe they are........SOS is a not exactly steller 258.

Our SOS is 36.

[mu_hilltopper]

I thought it would go without saying that you need a certain # of games for that stat to mean anything.   A walk-on who goes 1 for 1 on free throws for the season does not get the award for best FT shooter.

[mu_eyeballs]

I wonder if our lower seeds the past two years has anything to do with some of our losses being to teams like North Dakota State ('07 RPI 160) at home or Providence ('07 RPI 76) or DePaul ('07 RPI 68)?  It seems to me that this year as long as we beat SH (yes that is wood that you hear me knocking)...our "bad" loss is to a desperate SU (~RPI 50ish) on the road. 

[RawdogDX]

I thought it would go without saying that you need a certain # of games for that stat to mean anything.   A walk-on who goes 1 for 1 on free throws for the season does not get the award for best FT shooter.

That dosen't change the point that there aren't 50 teams with winning records against top 50 opponents.  SO if there aren't 50 teams that do that then there have to be teams in the top 50 with losing reccords against top 50 teams.

[Marquette84]

Last year Memphis was just 1-2 against the top 50.

Its nice to know that a team that doesn't belong in the top 50 can wind up making the final four.

[ChicosBailBonds]

That's the thing that sticks in my belly the most.  Our schedule WAS tough.  And we LOST most of the tough games, which clearly indicates where we stand.  It'd almost be better to NOT have played such a tough slate, so the committee would have to "guess" as to how good we are by using RPI, etc.

I'll say it again .. in order to be a top 50 team, you've gotta play the top 50 and come out with a .500 record to show you belong.

All the RPI and Pomeroy and Sagarin numbers .. they are numerical crap, designed to postulate a ranking based on not-everyone playing everyone.  MU filled in a lot of the data points by playing 11 top 50 teams, and losing to 8 of them.  No fancy logarithmic algebra is necessary. 

2007-8    3 for 11 vs. Top 50 and ..?
2006-7    5 for 11 vs. Top 50 and one and done in NCAAs. 
2005-6    3 for 9  vs. Top 50 and one and done in NCAAs.

I think we prove ourselves, BY WINNING OR LOSING, to be somewhere between #33-64 every year and losing in the first round, rating numbers be damned.  (I'd say #40th each year, including this year.) --

And that's what kills us, is that the experts say we're top 25, the RPI, Pomeroy, say we're top ~25.  But when the rubber hits the road, and we're playing the GAMES that are the only damn thing that really counts, we don't beat top 25 teams at at least a .500 clip.  Those are the expectations that are killing us, and bring out the trolls when we lose.  NO FREAKING WONDER. 

Yes but 8 of those 11 were against top 25 teams...so they were weighted heavily to the very top of the cream of the crop.  Of those 8...5 were on the road and one neutral site.

Last year we played 7 top 25 teams, but only TWO were on the road.

Again, important to look deeper into the numbers...where the games are played and against who.

[TVDirector]

6-7 seed, depending on our play in the be tourny.
1 win and a decent loss against a good ND team, no biggie imo.

lose tonight and we're a 7