2026 MLB Thread

[The Sultan]

The only thing that's 100% is Willie posting after a Marquette loss

Do you think we could convince his overbearing wife to change his wifi password?

[Pakuni]

And yet...they'll 3 peat.  When is the last time we have seen a 3 peat in any major American sport?  College football or men's basketball or the NHL, MBL, NBA, or NFL?  Over a quarter century ago with the Lakers?

Just like I said all last year and turned out to be right, the Dodgers are the only team with a chance to win the World Series this year.

The Chicago Bulls had two three-peats in the 90s ... in a capped league.

The Florida Panthers nearly had a three-peat (two Cups and a loss in the Final) from 2023-25 ... in a capped league.

The KC Chiefs nearly had a three-peat (two Super Bowl wins and a loss) from 2023-25 ... in a capped league.

[Uncle Rico]

Do you think we could convince his overbearing wife to change his wifi password?

Are you kidding?  She's probably thrilled he's online instead of telling her about a game in 1924 when it was pure ball

[wadesworld]

The Chicago Bulls had two three-peats in the 90s ... in a capped league.

The Florida Panthers nearly had a three-peat (two Cups and a loss in the Final) from 2023-25 ... in a capped league.

The KC Chiefs nearly had a three-peat (two Super Bowl wins and a loss) from 2023-25 ... in a capped league.

So 3 peats haven't happened in over a quarter century in the 6 biggest leagues in America, but the Dodgers are the favorites to complete a 3 peat and will probably go out and sign Skubal this offseason.  And they'll probably defer 98% of his salary so they're only taxed on like 55% of his salary.

[Pakuni]

So 3 peats haven't happened in over a quarter century in the 6 biggest leagues in America, but the Dodgers are the favorites to complete a 3 peat and will probably go out and sign Skubal this offseason.

You're being a little pedantic here. Clearly both the Chiefs and Panthers built teams in capped leagues that capable of three-peats. The Chiefs, in fact, were favored to do so. And the Panthers currently are co-favorites for next season.

Had Miguel Rojas popped out instead of hit a home run in game 7, would everything be OK?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There have been dynasties in capped leagues...but those sports are more conducive to dynasties. If you draft/sign the best QB, you have a good chance to have a dynasty in the NFL. If you draft/sign the best goalie, you have a good chance to have a dynasty in the NHL. In the NBA, you really only need to get the right three stars to have a dynasty (and the NBA has successfully countered that via a capped system).

Baseball is different. There's not one position where getting it right gives you an outsized impact. Aces can only pitch once every five days (three or four during the postseason), closers can't go every night, star batters only bat once every 9 plate appearances.

You also can't sign three superstars and surround them with replacement level players. For example, Trout and Ohtani, arguably the two greatest players of the modern era, were on the same team for six years and they never made the playoffs.

To create a dynasty in baseball, you have to have at least what, 15? 20? quality players, with several of them being stars, year after year. The only way you can realistically do that is by having a significantly larger payroll than most teams and signing the best talent every year.

Baseball should have the most parity of any of the leagues. The fact that it's comparable to the other leagues is a result of the salary cap.

[Pakuni]

There have been dynasties in capped leagues...but those sports are more conducive to dynasties. If you draft/sign the best QB, you have a good chance to have a dynasty in the NFL. If you draft/sign the best goalie, you have a good chance to have a dynasty in the NHL. In the NBA, you really only need to get the right three stars to have a dynasty (and the NBA has successfully countered that via a capped system).

Baseball is different. There's not one position where getting it right gives you an outsized impact. Aces can only pitch once every five days (three or four during the postseason), closers can't go every night, star batters only bat once every 9 plate appearances.

You also can't sign three superstars and surround them with replacement level players. For example, Trout and Ohtani, arguably the two greatest players of the modern era, were on the same team for six years and they never made the playoffs.

To create a dynasty in baseball, you have to have at least what, 15? 20? quality players, with several of them being stars, year after year. The only way you can realistically do that is by having a significantly larger payroll than most teams and signing the best talent every year.

Baseball should have the most parity of any of the leagues. The fact that it's comparable to the other leagues is a result of the salary cap.

You make some fair points, and some I strongly disagree with (you may want to check out the goaltending of Stanley Cup champs over the past couple decades).
But rather than quibble, let me ask ... Have we shifted the discussion away from competitive balance and to ... dynasties and hypothetical three-peats?

And, had Miguel Rojas popped out, would everything be OK?

[MU82]

Of note: The Dodgers haven't actually threepeated.

Also ...

We heard all of the same stuff from 1996 to 2000, when the Yankees won 4 titles in 5 years.

Nobody else even has a chance!

Except then the Yankees won only 1 title in the next 25 years. I guess other teams had a chance.

[wadesworld]

You make some fair points, and some I strongly disagree with (you may want to check out the goaltending of Stanley Cup champs over the past couple decades).
But rather than quibble, let me ask ... Have we shifted the discussion away from competitive balance and to ... dynasties and hypothetical three-peats?

And, had Miguel Rojas popped out, would everything be OK?

No, because then the Dodgers went and paid Kyle Tucker. In December ESPN projected him to get $38MM/year. In early January heavy.com projected him to get $34MM/year. In late January the Dodgers actually gave him $60MM/year.

They also signed Edwin Diaz, closing the only hole on their team.

They gave Shohei $70MM/year but are only taxed on $46MM/year.

You can talk all you want about how a team almost beat them. Reality is they're about to be the first major sports team in America to 3 peat in over a quarter century.

Oh and they have either the #2 or #1 farm system in baseball, depending on where you look, because instead of having to trade for talent they just give guys like Kyle Tucker 58% more than what they're projected to get. Most teams couldn't afford to give Shohei Ohtani $60MM/year. The Dodgers are giving that to Kyle Tucker.

[wadesworld]

Of note: The Dodgers haven't actually threepeated.

Also ...

We heard all of the same stuff from 1996 to 2000, when the Yankees won 4 titles in 5 years.

Nobody else even has a chance!

Except then the Yankees won only 1 title in the next 25 years. I guess other teams had a chance.

You were saying the same things last year when I said the Dodgers were winning the World Series.

[MU82]

You were saying the same things last year when I said the Dodgers were winning the World Series.

wades, you also were quite certain the Knicks weren't gonna win the NBA title. And that's ok; I've had my share of wrong predictions, too.

I'll wait until the Dodgers actually threepeat before I start comparing them to teams that have threepeated.

And regardless, I'll stick with my prediction that there won't be a salary cap. The owners always cave before the players do, and it'll happen again.

[GB Warrior]

I think Wades nailed it. The deferred money and the ability to be complete unconstrained by the luxury tax rules is unhinged and is the first thing that has to go. Deferred money should be accelerated onto your payroll if you're above a certain number. For better or worse, I think the apron restrictions in the NBA serve a good purpose because of those restrictions they apply.

The Dodgers WS odds vs the field are nearly 40%. While there is a lot good in the sport right now, that's not a recipe for a healthy sport long term. The expanded wild card has given more teams a bite at the apple but for now, it's largely just for pageantry.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Of note: The Dodgers haven't actually threepeated.

Also ...

We heard all of the same stuff from 1996 to 2000, when the Yankees won 4 titles in 5 years.

And they had the highest payroll in baseball every one of those years.

It doesn't guarantee anything (especially when you hold to aging stars like those Yankees tended to do), but it sure gives you extra chances.

[Pakuni]

I think Wades nailed it. The deferred money and the ability to be complete unconstrained by the luxury tax rules is unhinged and is the first thing that has to go. Deferred money should be accelerated onto your payroll if you're above a certain number. For better or worse, I think the apron restrictions in the NBA serve a good purpose because of those restrictions they apply.

The Dodgers WS odds vs the field are nearly 40%. While there is a lot good in the sport right now, that's not a recipe for a healthy sport long term. The expanded wild card has given more teams a bite at the apple but for now, it's largely just for pageantry.

1. There's nothing preventing other teams from giving out contracts with deferred compensation (and, in fact, most do ... the Dodgers just went bigger with it). These complaints amount to little more than sour grapes from fans whose teams are less creative and less willing to lay their nuts on the table.

2. If MLB owners really cared about competitive balance or revenue imbalances, really thought the Dodgers were getting out of hand, they could address those issues without a salary cap. But that's not the goal here. The goal is to create cost certainty that will depress wages and provide cost certainties that literally will guarantee profitability (see: 10% escrow proposal) and further enhance franchise values.

3. Dynasties are good for sports. They draw more attention/viewers,  and give fans in other markets a villain to root against. MLB somehow survived the Yankees winning nine titles in 15 years in the late 40s to early 60s. Survived the As winning three in a row in the 70s. Survived the Big Red Machine. Survived the Yankees winning four in five years (and appearing in two others) in the late 90s/early 2000s. Survived the Giants winning three titles between 2010-14. It'll survive this Dodgers' run as well. In fact, it seems to be thriving amid this Dodgers' run. World Series ratings weren't up nearly 20% last year because people were tuning in to watch the Blue Jays.
 

[Pakuni]

And they had the highest payroll in baseball every one of those years.

It doesn't guarantee anything (especially when you hold to aging stars like those Yankees tended to do), but it sure gives you extra chances.

They had the highest payroll in baseball every year from 2004 to 2013. Appeared in one World Series over that decade.

In fact, the team with the highest payroll has won a title all of two times over the last 25 years.

Yes, teams with lots of good players tend to win more than teams with lots of bad players. And good players cost more than bad players.

[MU82]

The Dodgers WS odds vs the field are nearly 40%.

So, the odds are better than 60% that any team other than the Dodgers win the World Series? Interesting.

[TallTitan34]

17 different MLB teams have won titles since 2000.
16 different NHL teams have won titles since 2000.
14 different NFL teams have won titles since 2000.
14 different NBA teams have won titles since 2000.
14 different WNBA teams have won titles since 2000.
13 different MLS teams have won titles since 2000.

[wadesworld]

So, the odds are better than 60% that any team other than the Dodgers win the World Series? Interesting.

Wake me up when the Dodgers don't win the World Series with Shohei on their roster.  After they 3 peat this year, I'm sure they'll have a "40%" chance of winning the World Series next August with a rotation of Skubal, Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Wrobleski and Sasaki as their 6th starter.

[The Sultan]

Wake me up when the Dodgers don't win the World Series with Shohei on their roster.  After they 3 peat this year, I'm sure they'll have a "40%" chance of winning the World Series next August with a rotation of Skubal, Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Wrobleski and Sasaki as their 6th starter.

If you don't like the Dodgers, just say that.

[wadesworld]

If you don't like the Dodgers, just say that.

I have no problem with the Dodgers.  They make the most money and they use that money to put together an All Star team.

I'm happy to be a Brewers fan, they've been incredibly well run for a good number of years now.  But to pretend they have a chance to win the World Series with this version of the Dodgers out there is out of touch with reality.  Even trading for Skubal, they aren't beating the Dodgers.   2018 was the year for the Brewers to break through.  Unfortunately didn't happen.

But some Scoopers think that because the MLB keeps expanding the number of teams that makes the Playoffs that there's competitive balance in baseball.  There certainly isn't that.

Per Pak's own admission, good teams have good players, and good players cost more money.  The payroll gap between the top spenders and the rest of the MLB is as big as it's ever been, and it continues to grow every year.  If nothing changes, it will continue to trend that way.

[Pakuni]

I have no problem with the Dodgers.  They make the most money and they use that money to put together an All Star team.

I'm happy to be a Brewers fan, they've been incredibly well run for a good number of years now.  But to pretend they have a chance to win the World Series with this version of the Dodgers out there is out of touch with reality.  Even trading for Skubal, they aren't beating the Dodgers.   2018 was the year for the Brewers to break through.  Unfortunately didn't happen.

But some Scoopers think that because the MLB keeps expanding the number of teams that makes the Playoffs that there's competitive balance in baseball.  There certainly isn't that.

KC Chiefs win consecutive titles and are favored for a third = competitive balance.
Florida Panthers win consecutive titles and are favored for a third = competitive balance.
LA Dodgers win consecutive titles and are favored for a third = unfair?

[wadesworld]

KC Chiefs win consecutive titles and are favored for a third = competitive balance.
Florida Panthers win consecutive titles and are favored for a third = competitive balance.
LA Dodgers win consecutive titles and are favored for a third = unfair?

You'll have to quote where I've said those things as I must've been blacking out.

[TallTitan34]

Please stop acting like the Brewers can't compete for a title.

They've won the division four of the last five years and currently are tied for the best record in baseball... after having the best record in baseball last year.

[wadesworld]

But if we want to compare sports, each of the last 10 World Series champions were defined as large-market (15 largest media markets) clubs.  The NFL has had 4 "small market" champions (3 by the Chiefs), the NBA has had 4 "small market" champions, and the NHL has had 7 "small market" champions (Penguins and Panthers each twice in there) in the last 10 years.

So champions from "small markets" over the last decade: NHL 70%, NBA and NFL 40%, MLB 0%.

Over the last decade, the MLB is the only major sport of the 4 major professional leagues in the US that sees the teams in the top 5 markets outperform teams in the bottom 5 markets in regular seasons.  MLB's top 5 markets have a win percentage .043 better than bottom 5 teams, NHL's top 5 markets have a win percentage .008 worse than bottom 5 markets, NBA top 5 market teams have a win percentage .048 worse than bottom 5 markets, and NFL top 5 market teams have a win percentage .088 worse than bottom 5 markets.

[wadesworld]

Please stop acting like the Brewers can't compete for a title.

They've won the division four of the last five years and currently are tied for the best record in baseball... after having the best record in baseball last year.

Correct.  And they have ZERO chance of beating the Dodgers this year.  Just like they did last year.

Hence the problem in baseball.