War with Iran

[TSmith34, Inc.]

China, Russia (especially), war criminal Bibi, and the IRG big winners. Everyone else big losers.

Trump once again does exactly what his handler wants him to do.

[The Sultan]

From Axios:

China has far more oil stashed away than any other country — giving it a strategic edge during the biggest oil shock in history, new U.S. government data shows.

Why it matters: China is a huge winner in the Iran war, due in large part to energy, including its oil stockpile. China also owns over 70% of the global solar, wind, battery and EV supply chains.

Those are all seeing a boost as import-dependent countries turn from oil and natural gas to renewables.

MCGA!

This isn't that big of a deal since we have four times as many untapped oil reserves as China, and largely control the oil production of Venezuela on top of that.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

This isn't that big of a deal since we have four times as many untapped oil reserves as China, and largely control the oil production of Venezuela on top of that.

If it were as easy as just turning the spigot on.

And the Venezuelan oil is going straight into Trump's offshore account.

[The Sultan]

If it were as easy as just turning the spigot on.

China is much more reliant on a petroleum reserve than the United States is. China only produces a third of the oil they consume.

The United States produces pretty much exactly what it consumes - we import and export different types of crude because it is more economical to do so.

The fact that China has significantly more in reserves than the United States doesn't really mean anything more than they need it to meet demand.

[Uncle Rico]

China is much more reliant on a petroleum reserve than the United States is. China only produces a third of the oil they consume.

The United States produces pretty much exactly what it consumes - we import and export different types of crude because it is more economical to do so.

The fact that China has significantly more in reserves than the United States doesn't really mean anything more than they need it to meet demand.

Part of the reason China hasn't been afraid to pivot towards other forms of energy.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

China is much more reliant on a petroleum reserve than the United States is. China only produces a third of the oil they consume.

The United States produces pretty much exactly what it consumes - we import and export different types of crude because it is more economical to do so.

The fact that China has significantly more in reserves than the United States doesn't really mean anything more than they need it to meet demand.

My point was, when you said the U.S. has 4x untapped reserves, is that production is relatively inelastic--it takes a long time to increase production meaningfully.

I agree the chart itself is meaningless without comparing the reserves to demand usage.

[TallTitan34]

China also owns over 70% of the global solar, wind, battery and EV supply chains.

Those Chinese whales are f'd.

[The Sultan]

My point was, when you said the U.S. has 4x untapped reserves, is that production is relatively inelastic--it takes a long time to increase production meaningfully.

I agree the chart itself is meaningless without comparing the reserves to demand usage.

We already produce more than we consume.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

We already produce more than we consume.

Then having 4x untapped reserves is meaningless, right?

[Hards Alumni]

From Axios:

China has far more oil stashed away than any other country — giving it a strategic edge during the biggest oil shock in history, new U.S. government data shows.

Why it matters: China is a huge winner in the Iran war, due in large part to energy, including its oil stockpile. China also owns over 70% of the global solar, wind, battery and EV supply chains.

Those are all seeing a boost as import-dependent countries turn from oil and natural gas to renewables.

MCGA!

Not sure I buy this.  China has little to no production of its own, and that reserve was from December.  They've certainly had to dip into it.  While the US doesn't have a large reserve that isn't a problem since we produce so much of our own.

One problem that China is sure to face is that with the draw down of their reserves, they may have to push back their invasion date of Taiwan... if they plan to even attempt it.

Good on China for recognizing their national weakness and swapping towards an economy based more on renewable energy, but their oil situation is definitely not enviable.  And the military runs on oil.

[Uncle Rico]

https://bsky.app/profile/thebulwark.com/post/3mk6tfr2jgp2c

Don't write that I'm mad.  I'm not mad

[The Sultan]

https://bsky.app/profile/thebulwark.com/post/3mk6tfr2jgp2c

Don't write that I'm mad.  I'm not mad

Comparing this to Vietnam is a great polical strategy.

[Uncle Rico]

Comparing this to Vietnam is a great polical strategy.

Many strong army men have come up to him and said, "Sir, look how long Vietnam was thank you for ending that war" and then wept openly

[Uncle Rico]

How can Sleepy Donny lead us through a war?

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mk6r4rnofs2g

[MU82]

At least he had an exit strategy for Vietnam.

[tower912]

Yeah, now the spurs are spur of the moment.  Which is how a self-initiated war should be run.

[cheebs09]

At least he had an exit strategy for Vietnam.

How dare you overlook the personal Vietnam this Christian president battled on the front lines of in America. To put himself at risk for all those STD's and come out on the other side deserves our respect.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think alluding to Vietnam in comparison to your current war--essentially saying the current one isn't as long as Vietnam, yet--is a wise political strategy.

[rocky_warrior]

is a wise political strategy.

Lamest duck. DGAF

[Uncle Rico]

Lamest duck. DGAF

Man, I hope so

[Uncle Rico]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iran-war-trump-uk-falklands-pentagon-email-b2964133.html

Going to take a lot of work to fix the mess this administration is making with our allies

[Uncle Rico]

Gin Diesel throwing allies under the bus.

https://bsky.app/profile/thebulwark.com/post/3mkajh5q73s2c

Why is he making these comments?

1. There was no coalition building outside of Israel leading up to this war.  Strategic blunder of epic proportions.  Instead of doing the diplomatic legwork, America acted alone expecting the world to applaud.  Indefensible strategy.  The type of thing historians will use as an example of poor planning centuries from now.  American hubris.

2. Concerns over arms shortages.  The deployment of missiles in this war have depleted our inventory.  We want other countries involved to preserve munitions.  We won't run out, we love bombs, but being able to take on China should they make a move in Taiwan?  Not feasible anymore.  Again, incompetent planning and strategy short term and long term. 

3. Any resolution as things stand now will be an embarrassing result for America throughout the world.  The only option to "save face" is to bomb more, depleting more inventory, or use ground troops as an invasion force resulting in nation building and more nightly news stories of dead soldiers.

Just a truly incompetent and embarrassing military strategy.  Will go down in history as one of the worst planned and executed military exercises.

[Uncle Rico]

Lololololol

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mkallmf6lz2n

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

I have to believe there are people in the UK and France thinking, "We'll support the US in this conflict over the Strait of Hormuz in the same manner the US supported our countries in 1956 on the Suez Canal." I could sympathize with DJT's point about the lack of NATO support for this conflict if NATO had been in on this in the first place. But the US decided to do this on its own with Israel. If I was a UK citizen who's going to have to deal with all the negative economic fallout from the US actions, I doubt I would want my government to bail the US out. DJT got us into this mess on his own and now he needs to figure out how to get us out of it.

On another note, I knew next to nothing about Pete Hegseth before he joined the Cabinet but OMG what an embarrassment to our country. Do people really approve of all the posturing? Especially from the Secretary of Defense? It's mind boggling.

[Hards Alumni]

I have to believe there are people in the UK and France thinking, "We'll support the US in this conflict over the Strait of Hormuz in the same manner the US supported our countries in 1956 on the Suez Canal." I could sympathize with DJT's point about the lack of NATO support for this conflict if NATO had been in on this in the first place. But the US decided to do this on its own with Israel. If I was a UK citizen who's going to have to deal with all the negative economic fallout from the US actions, I doubt I would want my government to bail the US out. DJT got us into this mess on his own and now he needs to figure out how to get us out of it.

On another note, I knew next to nothing about Pete Hegseth before he joined the Cabinet but OMG what an embarrassment to our country. Do people really approve of all the posturing? Especially from the Secretary of Defense? It's mind boggling.

NATO is a defensive alliance.  That is all that any of those countries should have said when Trump asked for help (that he didn't need, he says).  On the topic of getting us out of this mess.  He can't.  If he abandons the project (he should do this) he will have to answer what the point of the entire quagmire was.  There is no good answer to this question.  Israel forced him to do it, and enough people in the administration have wanted to go after Iran for decades, so they just YOLOed it.  There was/is no plan.  The only concept of a plan was to try to be a global bully, and that hasn't worked.  Iran punched back far harder than anyone in the Trump admin expected and now he's stuck.  Dropping more bombs or ruining Iran's infrastructure doesn't achieve any goals other than collective punishment of the civilian population.  Iran will still be able to launch drones, lay mines in the straight of Hormuz, and generally cause global financial chaos no matter how much ordinance the US military drops.  It was a fools errand from the start.  Trump likely thought he could get the same easy W in Iran that he got in Venezuela, and I absolutely believe that Bibi convinced him of this when they decided to start operation Epstein Fury.

Peter Hegseth and people like him should never be anywhere near serious government.  He was never ranked higher than a Major in the Army.  He had no previous Department of Defense experience either.  Meaning, he has no unnatural carnal knowledgeing clue what he is doing.  But he kissed ass, acted macho, and is a fool, so of course he should be The Secretary of Defense... I'm sorry, Secretary of War.  There has never been another person less qualified to hold this position, but that's nothing new to the Trump administration.