Chances vs the Weasels?

[brewcity77]

Remind me - why did McKay transfer out?  Was it his position/role?

Yes, he came assuming he would be a 3/4 wing, but Buzz saw him better suited at the 5. They also weren't sure Otule would be back that year, so that might have impacted the minutes he'd get. So he went to Iowa State where he played two seasons entirely at the 5.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Northwestern could not get WI turnovers but if Marquette can like TCU did and Marquette makes 3s we have a chance

[vogue65]

This is just misguided. Shaka could use the transfer portal all he wants - he just doesn't want to.

And this team was ranked in the top 10 just a year ago.

Stop being so dramatic.

Shaka has a boss.
If the boss wanted transfers, the boss would get transfers.
Sorry, that's probably a little too dramatic.
O.K., if an academically qualified player with a strong basketball resume, good references and recommendations wanted to transfer and he would demonstrably fill a need, he would be signed. 
Now to find such an individual.

[The Sultan]

Shaka has a boss.
If the boss wanted transfers, the boss would get transfers.
Sorry, that's probably a little too dramatic.
O.K., if an academically qualified player with a strong basketball resume, good references and recommendations wanted to transfer and he would demonstrably fill a need, he would be signed. 
Now to find such an individual.

If Shaka wanted transfers, Marquette would accept transfers. Why is this so hard to understand?

[wisblue]

It wouldn't be.

If you go through T-Rank, Marquette was playing like the #16 team in the country to that point of the 2023 season, Wisconsin was playing like the #55 team in the country. It isn't quite apples to apples, but when current #56 Butler plays at #15 St. John's this year, T-Rank has Butler as a +12.2 point underdog with a 14% chance to win.

Currently, T-Rank has us as a +10.4 underdog with an 18% chance to win. That's using preseason data. If you filter it to just this year, we are ranked #112 and Wisconsin is #35. If you look at when current #112 DePaul plays at current #38 Creighton, they are +11.4 with a 15% chance to win.

The spread was likely lower at the time because Vegas was factoring in preseason expectations that had us ranked #32 in kenpom and Wisconsin just slightly behind at #47, but we all know the gap in reality was much larger between those two teams. Any way you split it, the probabilities would be within a few points on either spreads or percentages.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this point.

When UW beat MU in 2022 it wasn't considered an upset. If MU wins on Saturday as a double digit underdog it would be a shocker, especially to anyone who has watched MU struggle at home against CMU and Valpo. 

[vogue65]

If Shaka wanted transfers, Marquette would accept transfers. Why is this so hard to understand?

Because there are selection criteria. 
You are correct, I don't know the rest of the story.  Nevertheless, Marquette looks to me more like Northwestern or Princeton than St. John's or Seton Hall. 
Remember when the decision-makers wanted MU to reassemble Duke?

[The Sultan]

When UW beat MU in 2022 it wasn't considered an upset.

It was literally an upset.

[The Sultan]

Because there are selection criteria. 
You are correct, I don't know the rest of the story.  Nevertheless, Marquette looks to me more like Northwestern or Princeton than St. John's or Seton Hall. 
Remember when the decision-makers wanted MU to reassemble Duke?

I think it's safe to say that you don't know any of the story.

[cheebs09]

Yes, he came assuming he would be a 3/4 wing, but Buzz saw him better suited at the 5. They also weren't sure Otule would be back that year, so that might have impacted the minutes he'd get. So he went to Iowa State where he played two seasons entirely at the 5.

Wasn't there talk of redshirting him too? Maybe I'm misremembering that part.

[wisblue]

It was literally an upset.

If you consider it an upset any time a team favored by a couple of points loses,maybe it was. But I'll bet if you went back and looked at reports of that game you wouldn't see headlines like "Badgers Upset Eagles" or "Wisconsin Shocks Marquette".

If Marquette wins Saturday you will definitely see words like that thrown around. In my book there's a pretty big difference in expectation for a game with a 4 point spread as opposed to a double digit spread.

[Its DJOver]

If <insert definition of an upset> happened, then maybe it's an upset.

[The Sultan]

If <insert definition of an upset> happened, then maybe it's an upset.

LOL. Right?

[WhiteTrash]

If Shaka wanted transfers, Marquette would accept transfers. Why is this so hard to understand?

The idea that a coach with Shaka's resume would be handcuffed by the administration on a ubiquitous roster building strategy is laughable.

[wisblue]

In the context of this conversation, I am disputing the statement that a double digit underdog winning would be no "crazier" than a four point underdog winning.

Even if the Badgers win over MU in 2022 was technically an "upset" by the broadest definition of the word, it was not considered one or reported that way at the time.

[BM1090]

In the context of this conversation, I am disputing the statement that a double digit underdog winning would be no "crazier" than a four point underdog winning.

Even if the Badgers win over MU in 2022 was technically an "upset" by the broadest definition of the word, it was not considered one or reported that way at the time.

Marquette was favored by 6. It was an upset.

When Marquette upset #1 Villanova in 2017, we were 5 point underdogs.

[MuggsyB]

Marquette was favored by 6. It was an upset.

When Marquette upset #1 Villanova in 2017, we were 5 point underdogs.

Yes and Yes.

[wisblue]

So, what everyone seems to be saying is that if a 5 point underdog winning is an upset, and a 12 point underdog winning is an upset, then a 12 point underdog winning is no "crazier" than a 5 point underdog winning.

I don't agree with that logic.

[wisblue]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2022/12/03/wisconsin-badgers-vs-marquette-golden-eagles-college-basketball-game-updates-at-fiserv-forum/69694329007/

Here is the JSOnline story on that game. I see no reference to the UW victory being an upset, surprise, or shock.

I guarantee that, in the unlikely event MU wins on Saturday, some of those words will appear.

[BM1090]

So, what everyone seems to be saying is that if a 5 point underdog winning is an upset, and a 12 point underdog winning is an upset, then a 12 point underdog winning is no "crazier" than a 5 point underdog winning.

I don't agree with that logic.

What I was saying is that if UW beating Marquette wasn't an upset, then neither was MU taking down #1 and eventual national champion Nova. And we all know the latter was an upset. So the former was too.

[MuggsyB]

Who the F cares!  We should all be focused on a wide range of strategies to beat them and salvage at least aninfinitesimal crumb of the season.

[wisblue]

Who the F cares!  We should all be focused on a wide range of strategies to beat them and salvage at least a infinitesimal crumb of the season.

I might do that if I had any chance to have an impact on the outcome.

[Biggie Clausen]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2022/12/03/wisconsin-badgers-vs-marquette-golden-eagles-college-basketball-game-updates-at-fiserv-forum/69694329007/

Here is the JSOnline story on that game. I see no reference to the UW victory being an upset, surprise, or shock.

I guarantee that, in the unlikely event MU wins on Saturday, some of those words will appear.

This was a fun article to reread.  I had *completely* forgotten about those two failed inbounds passes from Kolek, but now remember how pissed I was at him and Shaka at the time for not drawing up something that would, you know, at least give us a chance to take a freaking shot.  Funny how some games or moments stick with you, and some don't. 

[brewcity77]

So, what everyone seems to be saying is that if a 5 point underdog winning is an upset, and a 12 point underdog winning is an upset, then a 12 point underdog winning is no "crazier" than a 5 point underdog winning.

I don't agree with that logic.

No, that's not the point. The point was that had those teams been accurately reflected without preseason bias impacting the projections, we would've been a bigger favorite in that game, similar to the line we're likely to see on Saturday.

[Billy Hoyle]

Remember when the decision-makers wanted MU to reassemble Duke?

I didn't know Duke had to be put back together

[wadesworld]

Tyler Kolek couldn't read but we're a roster of Princeton students?

How out of touch have MU fans become? Good Lord.