Will we ever be happy?

[ATL MU Warrior]

I'm curious how this thread would go if their KP luck factor was around 150 instead of 242...

Pretty sure that was due to the last 30 seconds of the DePaul game where that guy hit like 5 threes.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You're not entirely wrong. These things can and do occur with any team or coach. The questions arise when these things keep happening to the same team or coach.
Getting upset by a double digit seed happens to every coach once in a while. Getting upset by a double digit seed three times in five years is a little harder to write off as bad luck.

I wouldn't call it bad luck, but more a reflection of the inherent variance of a single elimination tournament played by amateur basketball players. That's 3 out of 166 games played in those 5 seasons. To be clear, I'm not saying that the other 163 were well coached (they weren't), just a recognition that bad games happen and three of them happening in the last game of the season in five years isn't the statistical anomaly it may seem to be.

I truly don't believe there's anything special or magical about coaching in the tournament. Weird crap happens in madness. That being said, if Shaka disagrees, I hope he tries to address it. He always talks about seeking out coaches who are good at the things he's bad at in the offseason. Maybe talk to Hurley, Wright, Izzo, or any other coach that seems to have less variance in their March performances to see if there's any wisdom he can gleam.

[PointWarrior]

Pakuni, Point Warrior, do you want Shaka fired?  Do you think he is not the long term answer?  If so, say it, spell it out in small words for us dumb scoopers, and own it.

Never said I want Shaka fired. I think there is room to say he is a great coach, great ambassador for the university, and yet has room for improvement as evidence by his NCAA results.

[PointWarrior]

No but his entire recruiting strategy shifted back to closer to VCU. It'd be a better point to use VCU and MU together as they're more similar strategies. Unless you know about a bunch of 5 star sure top prospects that have been coming through MU's door that I dont

it's disappointing to be lumped into a same category as VCU - I was led to believe that Marquette has significantly better basketball resources than VCU.

[PointWarrior]

Yeah, Pakuni has clearly said he supports Shaka even though he isn't satisfied with the March results and with some of the roster construction.

Point Warrior has found his schtick - call anybody who isn't going berserk about Shaka's abject failure part of the "CoS."

It doesn't matter if you have occasionally criticized Shaka when warranted or if you have repeatedly said you were disappointed in the way this year finished. As the leader of the Hate on Shaka Cult, he considers you part of the CoS.

He hasn't really said what he expects or whether he'll quit being a Marquette fan if his expectations aren't met. That's not part of his HoSC schtick.

Really not fair MU82, I do not hate Shaka but mock those who think he is infallible. But I will still buy beers I owe you.     

I like Shaka as the coach for Marquette. But we failed in the NCAA the past 4 years, and apologizing for it is CoS. This year was maddening to rinse and repeat the offense woes they had since at least Jan 3.

Shaka was hired pre/early-NIL. NIL has changed the landscape (see mostly P4 teams in the S16). Is Shaka's anti-portal position because he does not truly believe in bag drops or cause Marquette can't afford it. 

I struggle on two fronts - the offense blew and Shaka did not adapt and I think Marquette can't compete in NIL for transfers.

[Galway Eagle]

it's disappointing to be lumped into a same category as VCU - I was led to believe that Marquette has significantly better basketball resources than VCU.

This is purposely being obtuse. That's not what I said and you know it, reducing the very real fact that Shaka's strategy at MU looks more similar to VCU than Texas to somehow mean that I'm equating our program to VCU is ridiculous.

[muwarrior69]

I wouldn't call it bad luck, but more a reflection of the inherent variance of a single elimination tournament played by amateur basketball players. That's 3 out of 166 games played in those 5 seasons. To be clear, I'm not saying that the other 163 were well coached (they weren't), just a recognition that bad games happen and three of them happening in the last game of the season in five years isn't the statistical anomaly it may seem to be.

I truly don't believe there's anything special or magical about coaching in the tournament. Weird crap happens in madness. That being said, if Shaka disagrees, I hope he tries to address it. He always talks about seeking out coaches who are good at the things he's bad at in the offseason. Maybe talk to Hurley, Wright, Izzo, or any other coach that seems to have less variance in their March performances to see if there's any wisdom he can gleam.

I would not call players being paid amateurs, semi-professionals?

[Viper]

I wouldn't call it bad luck, but more a reflection of the inherent variance of a single elimination tournament played by amateur basketball players. That's 3 out of 166 games played in those 5 seasons. To be clear, I'm not saying that the other 163 were well coached (they weren't), just a recognition that bad games happen and three of them happening in the last game of the season in five years isn't the statistical anomaly it may seem to be.

I truly don't believe there's anything special or magical about coaching in the tournament. Weird crap happens in madness. That being said, if Shaka disagrees, I hope he tries to address it. He always talks about seeking out coaches who are good at the things he's bad at in the offseason. Maybe talk to Hurley, Wright, Izzo, or any other coach that seems to have less variance in their March performances to see if there's any wisdom he can gleam.

but there isn't much variance in Shaka's March performances. Consistently coming up short. That's the point...too consistent on the wrong side.

[Viper]

Sure. But his results at TX were 6 years, 0 tournament wins. The results at MU (3 wins in 4 years) are significantly better. And he did change his philosophy completely, so I think it's worth noting that his results have been a lot better here both in the regular season and the tournament.

Does he need to get better in the tournament? Absolutely. But you could easily make a case he's trending upwards doing things his way at MU.

except the eye test of this season would suggest otherwise. From January onward, this season was a dog, capped by a quick out in the ncaat. Returning cast, incoming reinforcements...I'm not even cautiously optimistic. Rather, cautious. I feel like Shaka is operating out of spite...NIL? Portal? Adjustments? Adapt?...I'll show you, you...

[Scoop Snoop]

Really not fair MU82,     

 CoS.

 Is Shaka's anti-portal position because he does not truly believe in bag drops or cause Marquette can't afford it. 

I struggle on two fronts -

1) I think MU82 was fair and spot on.

2) CoS has become your kneejerk response. You look silly chanting it so often.

3) Shaka has made it clear that he wants to go with HS recruits and developing them. You added two other possibilities-opposing bag drops and cannot afford.

4) You struggle. Period.

[MU82]

Really not fair MU82, I do not hate Shaka but mock those who think he is infallible. But I will still buy beers I owe you.   

The CoS thing got old quickly, and it's lazy. And, to quote you, it's "really not fair." Just because some of us don't rip, rip and rip some more in every post about Shaka, it doesn't mean we think he's "infallible." That's just silly.

I think there is room to say he is a great coach, great ambassador for the university, and yet has room for improvement as evidence by his NCAA results.

As do I and most other Scoopers who value what Shaka has brought as coach. I guess we're all in the same cult after all. Kumbaya.

[Uncle Rico]

The CoS thing got old quickly, and it's lazy. And, to quote you, it's "really not fair." Just because some of us don't rip, rip and rip some more in every post about Shaka, it doesn't mean we think he's "infallible." That's just silly.

As do I and most other Scoopers who value what Shaka has brought as coach. I guess we're all in the same cult after all. Kumbaya.

Put me in the COW Camp: Cult of Wardle

[Pakuni]

I wouldn't call it bad luck, but more a reflection of the inherent variance of a single elimination tournament played by amateur basketball players. That's 3 out of 166 games played in those 5 seasons. To be clear, I'm not saying that the other 163 were well coached (they weren't), just a recognition that bad games happen and three of them happening in the last game of the season in five years isn't the statistical anomaly it may seem to be.

I truly don't believe there's anything special or magical about coaching in the tournament. Weird crap happens in madness. That being said, if Shaka disagrees, I hope he tries to address it. He always talks about seeking out coaches who are good at the things he's bad at in the offseason. Maybe talk to Hurley, Wright, Izzo, or any other coach that seems to have less variance in their March performances to see if there's any wisdom he can gleam.

This seems to suggest he's an outlier. I don't know why he's an outlier, but his tournament results are worse than his peers. Maybe it truly is a case of bad luck. I really don't know. At what point does inherent variance become a trend?

[Hards Alumni]

Put me in the COW Camp: Cult of Wardle

He'd be a perfect fit for MUUUUUUUUUUU

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Statistics have a way of evening out over time.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This seems to suggest he's an outlier. I don't know why he's an outlier, but his tournament results are worse than his peers. Maybe it truly is a case of bad luck. I really don't know. At what point does inherent variance become a trend?

Again,  this is pulling 20 games out of a sample of over 450 games. I just don't think theres anything magic about coaching in March. But I've also never coached so maybe I'm wrong.

I'm also seeing Matt Painter in the "avoid    them" category. He was national runner up last season.  You get enough high seeds,  you eventually break through.

[Scoop Snoop]

He'd be a perfect fit for MUUUUUUUUUUU

There are some farms here that have a breed of cattle that is French in origin. They go moi, mooooiiiii

[Pakuni]

Again,  this is pulling 20 games out of a sample of over 450 games. I just don't think theres anything magic about coaching in March. But I've also never coached so maybe I'm wrong.

I'm also seeing Matt Painter in the "avoid    them" category. He was national runner up last season.  You get enough high seeds,  you eventually break through.

You are, of course, free to view it as you wish, but I think coaching in March is quite a bit different than a Wednesday night game in January, and I don't think you can evaluate tournament games the same why you evaluate buy games in mid-December.
You have less time to scout and prepare for your opponent.
You have the added pressure of an elimination scenario.
You have added media/public scrutiny.
Your players are almost certainly feeling more pressure.
You're traveling to and practicing in an unfamiliar location.
You're playing the game in an unfamiliar arena.

Would your philosophy extend to other sports. Is coaching the Super Bowl the same as a mid-October game? Is coaching in the World Cup the same as a friendly or a league game?
I would suggest circumstances matter a lot when coaching, and not all games are equal, but you're free to disagree.

As for Painter, have his teams underachieved in the tournament over the course of his tenure?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You are, of course, free to view it as you wish, but I think coaching in March is quite a bit different than a Wednesday night game in January.
You have less time to scout and prepare for your opponent.
You have the added pressure of an elimination scenario.
You have added media/public scrutiny.
Your players are almost certainly feeling more pressure.
You're traveling to and practicing in an unfamiliar location.
You're playing the game in an unfamiliar arena.

Would your philosophy extend to other sports. Is coaching the Super Bowl the same as a mid-October game? Is coaching in the World Cup the same as a league game?

Yes.

Other than less time to scout (which is true in the second round not the first round) those sound like things that would impact players a lot more than coaches.

[Pakuni]

Yes.

Other than less time to scout (which is true in the second round not the first round) those sound like things that would impact players a lot more than coaches.

If only these college basketball programs could hire someone tasked with getting the best out of players while they deal with those circumstances.

And yes, you have way less time to scout and prepare for the first round of the tournament than a regular season game. You're learning your opponent Sunday evening and have, at most, five days to prepare.
Shaka and his staff know right now who they're playing next season and have a minimum 7.5 months and as much as 10 months to prepare for them.
Are you under the impression that they don't start prepping for these games until it's the next one on the calendar? They'll be prepping game plans for UConn and Creighton and St. John's this summer.

And just so we're clear, coaching a regular season NFL game is no different than coaching a Super Bowl, and coaching a friendly is no different than coaching a World Cup Final?

[Its DJOver]

This seems to suggest he's an outlier. I don't know why he's an outlier, but his tournament results are worse than his peers. Maybe it truly is a case of bad luck. I really don't know. At what point does inherent variance become a trend?

How old is this data, I see a ton of inaccuracies.

[Hards Alumni]

If only these college basketball programs could hire someone tasked with getting the best out of players while they deal with those circumstances.

And yes, you have way less time to scout and prepare for the first round of the tournament than a regular season game. You're learning your opponent Sunday evening and have, at most, five days to prepare.
Shaka and his staff know right now who they're playing next season and have a minimum 7.5 months and as much as 10 months to prepare for them.
Are you under the impression that they don't start prepping for these games until it's the next one on the calendar? They'll be prepping game plans for UConn and Creighton and St. John's this summer.

And just so we're clear, coaching a regular season NFL game is no different than coaching a Super Bowl, and coaching a friendly is no different than coaching a World Cup Final?

The presupposition here is that teams are static and the scouting from the off-season (where your 7 months is coming from) is relevant to any opponent throughout the season.  Injuries, development, game planning all becomes somewhat irrelevant viewed through your lens.

Additionally, saying that the team you're playing could be anyone is a bit silly (I realize it is not explicitly what you said, but roll with it).  Coaches and their staffs would be doing themselves a disservice if they didn't have any clue.  Given what we know around here, coaches should be able to pare down who they would probably be playing.  Assuming you think your team is on the 7 or 8 line, there are around 10 teams to prepare for, and even then, there is at minimum three days of specific prep for the first team, and then two teams to prepare for afterwards, with limited time of course.  But the opponents aren't total unknowns.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If only these college basketball programs could hire someone tasked with getting the best out of players while they deal with those circumstances.

And yes, you have way less time to scout and prepare for the first round of the tournament than a regular season game. You're learning your opponent Sunday evening and have, at most, five days to prepare.
Shaka and his staff know right now who they're playing next season and have a minimum 7.5 months and as much as 10 months to prepare for them.
Are you under the impression that they don't start prepping for these games until it's the next one on the calendar? They'll be prepping game plans for UConn and Creighton and St. John's this summer.

And just so we're clear, coaching a regular season NFL game is no different than coaching a Super Bowl, and coaching a friendly is no different than coaching a World Cup Final?

That's what the yes was for.

You make a good point that while trans do only prep for one team at a time,  they can bring in knowledge from previous experience against conference opponents that gives them a head start.  Maybe thats the difference? I'm skepitcal but maybe.

I'm also skeptical that Shaka is bad at the player management in March but not the regular season but maybe that's the case. If it is,  i hope he seeks out wisdom to help him

[Uncle Rico]

I'll be happy if Tre Norman is back

[Pakuni]

The presupposition here is that teams are static and the scouting from the off-season (where your 7 months is coming from) is relevant to any opponent throughout the season.  Injuries, development, game planning all becomes somewhat irrelevant viewed through your lens.

Sure, there can be injuries, but I don't think those significantly change game prep. Greg McDermott isn't going to completely change his offensive scheme or defensive philosophy if Steven Ashworth misses a game. He'll just bring in a lesser player and ask him to replicate what Ashworth does. And Marquette would have prepared for that player as well.

Additionally, saying that the team you're playing could be anyone is a bit silly (I realize it is not explicitly what you said, but roll with it).  Coaches and their staffs would be doing themselves a disservice if they didn't have any clue.  Given what we know around here, coaches should be able to pare down who they would probably be playing.  Assuming you think your team is on the 7 or 8 line, there are around 10 teams to prepare for, and even then, there is at minimum three days of specific prep for the first team, and then two teams to prepare for afterwards, with limited time of course.  But the opponents aren't total unknowns.

I'd actually be pretty surprised if the coaching staff is spending significant time during the conference tournament scouting 10+ teams. And I think it would have to be more than 10. If you think you're a 7 or 8 seed - something you really wouldn't know until your conference tournament is over - that means you need to prepare for every possible 7 seed (so, anyone in the 6-8 range) and every possible 9 seed (everyone in the 7-10 range). So, there are going to be at least 19 teams to consider. How much legit scouting of 19 teams can you do in a day or two?