[Cracked Sidewalks] Cracketology: Maddening March

[brewcity77]

It's March, and we have our first bracket of college basketball's most magical month! Today we dig deep into some of the difficult decisions for bracketologists and the Selection Committee, starting with the last teams for 1-seeds and 2-seeds, where Marquette falls on the S-Curve, and making decisions for a bubble where virtually every team has what would typically be fatal flaws.

Maddening March

[GoldenEagles03]

Dumb question, but what determines where the play in games falls seeing wise? Is it as simple as how many bid stealers?

I see some brackets have them as 11 seeds, some have them as 12 seeds, some have one of each.

[The Sultan]

Dumb question, but what determines where the play in games falls seeing wise? Is it as simple as how many bid stealers?

I see some brackets have them as 11 seeds, some have them as 12 seeds, some have one of each.

I think it depends on how many autobids are seeded higher than the at-larges. For instance, if Drake wins Arch Madness, they may jump ahead of a couple at larges which moves a play-in game down to a 12 seed.

[brewcity77]

Dumb question, but what determines where the play in games falls seeing wise? Is it as simple as how many bid stealers?

I see some brackets have them as 11 seeds, some have them as 12 seeds, some have one of each.

More often than not they land on the 11-line. Typically the 22 lowest auto bids fill 12-16, then the play in games are the last 11s.

However, I think Drake & UCSD clearly have better resumes than the bottom of the at-large teams, so I moved them up to the 11 and dropped the Dayton games down. If Drake & UCSD end up as at-larges, or there are enough bid thieves, I could see them going back to the 11.

[FairWeatherEagle]

Thanks for the article. Surprised at how weak Xavier's resume is evaluated. On the surface a BE 11-7 (19-10) would guarantee a bid. But because it's actually weak, shows a weakness in the BE as a whole.

I think 2 more BE wins for them gets them in. @BT, PV.

We need 5 teams in and 3 to get to the S16 to keep a good look for the conference. Big ask.

[tower912]

Thanks for the article. Surprised at how weak Xavier's resume is evaluated. On the surface a BE 11-7 (19-10) would guarantee a bid. But because it's actually weak, shows a weakness in the BE as a whole.

I think 2 more BE wins for them gets them in. @BT, PV.

We need 5 teams in and 3 to get to the S16 to keep a good look for the conference. Big ask.

Yes, the Big East as a whole should have done better OOC.  MU is exemplary for the schedule they played and where they were willing to play.

[brewcity77]

Thanks for the article. Surprised at how weak Xavier's resume is evaluated. On the surface a BE 11-7 (19-10) would guarantee a bid. But because it's actually weak, shows a weakness in the BE as a whole.

I think 2 more BE wins for them gets them in. @BT, PV.

We need 5 teams in and 3 to get to the S16 to keep a good look for the conference. Big ask.

X's lack of Q1 is a killer. I think they probably need to win out and get a Q1 win on Thursday at the BET. I'm usually skeptical on those games mattering but later week games did matter to the reveal so I'll probably give them a little more weight. Even still, bid thieves could knock them out.

[GoldenEagles03]

X's lack of Q1 is a killer. I think they probably need to win out and get a Q1 win on Thursday at the BET. I'm usually skeptical on those games mattering but later week games did matter to the reveal so I'll probably give them a little more weight. Even still, bid thieves could knock them out.

I don't see how they could possibly be in without winning the Big East Tourney...but I think they are actually a perfect bid stealer candidate themselves.

[GoldenEagles03]

Actually just looked at last year's bracket and the play in games were both 10 seeds!

That I don't recall and seems to be outside the norm.

[The Sultan]

Actually just looked at last year's bracket and the play in games were both 10 seeds!

That I don't recall and seems to be outside the norm.

That's because the five bid stealers (Duquesne, UAB, NC State, New Mexico, Oregon) took four 11 seeds and one 12 seed. So the lowest level at-larges were 10 seeds. Had those teams not won their conference, you likely would have seen teams like Oklahoma, Indiana State and Seton Hall playing as 11 seeds in Dayton.

[GoldenEagles03]

That's because the five bid stealers (Duquesne, UAB, NC State, New Mexico, Oregon) took four 11 seeds and one 12 seed. So the lowest level at-larges were 10 seeds. Had those teams not won their conference, you likely would have seen teams like Oklahoma, Indiana State and Seton Hall playing as 11 seeds in Dayton.

Makes for a very interesting few weeks.

[1971muhs]

Brew--what's hurting us more in the seeding?-the crappy NC schedule + the performance of the rest of the Big East pre-season...or the 2 quad 2 losses?

[The Sultan]

Brew--what's hurting us more in the seeding?-the crappy NC schedule + the performance of the rest of the Big East pre-season...or the 2 quad 2 losses?

??? We went 9-2 against one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country.

[BrewCity83]

??? We went 9-2 against one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country.

I think he meant the crappy NC schedules of the rest of the Big East

[The Sultan]

I think he meant the crappy NC schedules of the rest of the Big East

Ah. My apologies if I misinterpreted.

[K1 Lover]

I don't see how they could possibly be in without winning the Big East Tourney...but I think they are actually a perfect bid stealer candidate themselves.

Can't remember which BE game this was said in last week, but an announcer mentioned that, to this date, every Big East team that has ever had 21+ wins entering the BE tournament has also made it to the NCAA tournament. Sitting at 19 wins currently, Xavier could get to 21 if they win their remaining games against Butler and Providence.

Hopefully this stays true and Xavier wins out.

[brewcity77]

Brew--what's hurting us more in the seeding?-the crappy NC schedule + the performance of the rest of the Big East pre-season...or the 2 quad 2 losses?

Of those two, the former.

The Big East's non-con performance, particularly buy level losses and under-performances by Villanova, Providence, Butler, & SHU were crushing to the league.

If Butler, Providence, and Georgetown were 60-75 in the NET instead of 76-90, Marquette would effectively turn 3 Q3 wins into Q1 wins. That alone would have Marquette closer to the 4 line than sitting on the 5/6 cutoff. The Q2 losses aren't ideal, but aren't bad losses until you get to the 1/2 lines.

[Scoop Snoop]

Of those two, the former.

The Big East's non-con performance, particularly buy level losses and under-performances by Villanova, Providence, Butler, & SHU were crushing to the league.

If Butler, Providence, and Georgetown were 60-75 in the NET instead of 76-90, Marquette would effectively turn 3 Q3 wins into Q1 wins. That alone would have Marquette closer to the 4 line than sitting on the 5/6 cutoff. The Q2 losses aren't ideal, but aren't bad losses until you get to the 1/2 lines.

This is exactly why, early in the season, I posted (but not in these words) that scoopers celebrating our BE brethren's OOC losses were also celebrating a weaker BE.  It has bitten us in the ass. Not Rocket Science. 

[wadesworld]

This is exactly why, early in the season, I posted (but not in these words) that scoopers celebrating our BE brethren's OOC losses were also celebrating a weaker BE.  It has bitten us in the ass. Not Rocket Science. 

Sucks we're on the outside looking in.

The beautiful thing about Shaka is that we don't need other teams to help us.

[MuMark]

Sucks we're on the outside looking in.

The beautiful thing about Shaka is that we don't need other teams to help us.

Who misses the seasons of being known as " team bubble watch"? 

Ah those were the days.......

[fjm]

Sucks we're on the outside looking in.

The beautiful thing about Shaka is that we don't need other teams to help us.

Weak response to his comment. Hes not wrong, most would rather be a 4 seed because strong OOC BEast schedules and results than saying "we don't need to worry cause we have shaka so a 5/6 is ok".

[Uncle Rico]

Xavier is better than Marquette.  They should be ahead of us.  #facts

[tower912]

MU controlled what they can control.

[wadesworld]

Weak response to his comment. Hes not wrong, most would rather be a 4 seed because strong OOC BEast schedules and results than saying "we don't need to worry cause we have shaka so a 5/6 is ok".

We've had chances. We lost road games to UCONN, Nova, SJU, and a home game to Creighton. We don't need other teams to prop us up. Gonzaga typically has no issues playing in a bad league. I'm fine rooting against BE teams with Shaka as our coach.

[fjm]

We've had chances. We lost road games to UCONN, Nova, SJU, and a home game to Creighton. We don't need other teams to prop us up. Gonzaga typically has no issues playing in a bad league. I'm fine rooting against BE teams with Shaka as our coach.

Very fair and valid points.