The unpredictable dawn

[DoctorV]

It's March 1.

Lets first give credence to one of the best months of the year, for many reasons, but one of which we all know to be March Madness.

We are nearly 30 games in. We've broken it all down, we've seen what we need to see, as the coach once said 'they are who we thought they were!'
Let this sink in- it's an emotion packed realization. This season will be over in the next 3 weeks unless Marquette is in the S16.

Don't think too much deeper, because it's possible that tonight was Marquettes last win of the season!!
Don't attack me, I'm just one mind
@UConn, vStJ, likely v X and 6/7 v 10/11 seed game on a 3 game slide to end the season makes the above scenario not so wild, not so impossible.
That would f'ing suck huh?

Or, it could end with a thrill, a S16 and elite 8 thrill. A BET title game thrill.

Best part is that we watch more Marquette ball than most in the world and we have no idea which will happen. It's part of the beauty of college basketball, it's part of the madness.

Not sure why I even started this thread at this point other than realizing that the end is near, hopefully just for this season and not for eternity.

I'll try to make a point though-
Ill give 3 scenarios possibly at play

1- Lose @Uconn and v StJ and get a 4 seed in BET. Lose to a hungry X that needs a win and go in as a 6/7 seed, get upset by a 10/11.

2- Win at UConn. Carry that to a win on senior day and beat Creighton in the 2v3. Get a 3/4 seed depending on if they win the BET tourney title.

3- Lose at UConn. Beat StJ in a close one on St day and beat X in a close one in NYC. Carry that to another win against the Johnnie's at the Garden and get a likely 4 seed after losing the final to UConn.
I think this lends itself to nice confidence going into the big dance and a nice run.

Obviously there are many other scenarios, these are just the ones that, after 1000 similations, my brain has spit out at me.

For the record I see #3 as the most likely scenario.
I didn't mention tourney results for option #2 for a reason, but I could see the confidence of a few wins over StJ playing a huge role in a tourney run.

Best part is that even option 1 could lead to a nice run in the dance and a successful ending.
I believe the term that this board got addicted to is "crapshoot" with regards to protecting their feelings if Marquette were to fail in the dance as a 2 seed.

Sometimes, a hungry 4-6 seed with a chip on its shoulder, and the abilities of a 2 seed, is a good place to be if led by Shaka Smart

[MUfan12]

Tonight was a perfect example of why I wouldn't be surprised by them losing out, nor a second weekend run.

With all caveats about the competition, when they play like they did from U16 timeout to U16 timeout I see a really tough out. But the team that coughed up 16 points of a lead, lacking the focus and energy required could easily be upset fodder.

I would have thought a veteran team could fight that complacency off, but they've made a habit of it this year.

I'm buckled in and ready to see where this ride goes.

[MU82]

I'll like our chances in the NCAA Tournament every time we get a 25+ lead.

Lots of teams - legit NCAA title contenders - have down stretches after building a huge lead. We still covered by a mile. Enjoy it.

[NCMUFan]

Looking forward to the next two games.

[tower912]

MU played 29 solid minutes.  The first 25 and the last 4.  Never take for granted building a 28 point lead on the road.  At that point, due to human nature, some sort of push is nearly inevitable.

[FairWeatherEagle]

We'll just have to see. I have hope for a few more wins. It's not like we're 9-9 in the BE and hoping for a BET run to get us in like some years. So it's not a vain hope.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Let's see how this upcoming week goes. 

We seem to be playing better and are winning, but also winning against the dregs of the conference.  Hard to know what to take away from that. 

If we are competitive this week, not even necessarily winning but playing decisively and giving ourselves a real chance to win, then I'll feel pretty good about BET and NCAA chances. These last two are tough. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we are competitive this week, not even necessarily winning but playing decisively and giving ourselves a real chance to win, then I'll feel pretty good about BET and NCAA chances. These last two are tough. 

I don't believe you. We were playing decisively and gave ourselves real chances to win at SJU and at Creighton, a tougher two games than these last two,  and scoop was in meltdown mode.

Reality is if we win, scoop will be optimistic,  if we lose,  scoop will be pessimistic.

[wadesworld]

I don't believe you. We were playing decisively and gave ourselves real chances to win at SJU and at Creighton, a tougher two games than these last two,  and scoop was in meltdown mode.

Reality is if we win, scoop will be optimistic,  if we lose,  scoop will be pessimistic.

Eh. If we beat UCONN Scoop will say UCONN is a bubble team that a lot of bad teams beat. If we beat SJU Scoop will say it was a home game against a team with nothing to play for. They'll say we'll finally learn about this team in NYC, after saying the same thing about the GT game and then the next two games, and probably start a poll. It's the Scoop way.

[PGsHeroes32]

Eh. If we beat UCONN Scoop will say UCONN is a bubble team that a lot of bad teams beat. If we beat SJU Scoop will say it was a home game against a team with nothing to play for. They'll say we'll finally learn about this team in NYC, after saying the same thing about the GT game and then the next two games, and probably start a poll. It's the Scoop way.

I won't say that if we beat SJU.


But what you said is part of why I find it wild most are acting like winning that game is beating the dynasty warriors.

SJU is a good team. But we played them to the wire at the garden. Anyone thinking at home, senior day is a probable loss is nuts.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

With a surging Ben Gold I am more optimistic about our chances

[ATL MU Warrior]

I don't believe you. We were playing decisively and gave ourselves real chances to win at SJU and at Creighton, a tougher two games than these last two,  and scoop was in meltdown mode.

Reality is if we win, scoop will be optimistic,  if we lose,  scoop will be pessimistic.

I wasn't talking about Scoop...was talking about myself.

[MUfan12]

The adjustments Shaka and staff has made defensively will serve them well in the STJ game. Seeing more hedging, less switching, more containment to force misses rather than just TOs.

It's something I've been hoping to see, especially when it seemed like the team was run down.

It'll be interesting to see how they approach the UConn game. On NMD they saw the doubles coming and passed around them, much like Nova in the second meeting.

[Scoop Snoop]

The adjustments Shaka and staff has made defensively will serve them well in the STJ game. Seeing more hedging, less switching, more containment to force misses rather than just TOs.

It's something I've been hoping to see, especially when it seemed like the team was run down.

It'll be interesting to see how they approach the UConn game. On NMD they saw the doubles coming and passed around them, much like Nova in the second meeting.

I am cautiously optimistic on both games, and your post lays out  why. Thanks!

While challenging our team's chances based upon Ws over weaker opponents is valid, the margins and dominance counterbalances that to a large degree.

[willie warrior]

With a surging Ben Gold I am more optimistic about our chances

Yeah, let's see if he surges I'm next 2 games. Hoping he does.

[BM1090]

The adjustments Shaka and staff has made defensively will serve them well in the STJ game. Seeing more hedging, less switching, more containment to force misses rather than just TOs.

It's something I've been hoping to see, especially when it seemed like the team was run down.

It'll be interesting to see how they approach the UConn game. On NMD they saw the doubles coming and passed around them, much like Nova in the second meeting.

Thanks for explaining what I thought I'd been seeing. There have been less easy buckets the last few games. Nova just got crazy hot. Good to see them return to early season form in that regard.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I wasn't talking about Scoop...was talking about myself.

Were you feeling pretty good about our chances the rest of the season after losing close games against SJU and Creighton?

[The Thing]

What do you think our floor looks like if we go 0-3 in our next three? 7 or 8 seed? Asking for a friend.

[Viper]

I don't believe you. We were playing decisively and gave ourselves real chances to win at SJU and at Creighton, a tougher two games than these last two,  and scoop was in meltdown mode.

Reality is if we win, scoop will be optimistic,  if we lose,  scoop will be pessimistic.

"I don't believe you"...seriously?

[BM1090]

"I don't believe you"...seriously?

Not believing someone when their past behavior indicates that wouldn't be the case is pretty normal.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Were you feeling pretty good about our chances the rest of the season after losing close games against SJU and Creighton?

Not really. Because we were coming off a stretch of games where we mostly played like crap, against mostly bad teams, and we lost against any decent team we played. Now, we are coming off a stretch of games where we've looked much better, albeit against lousy teams. If we are competitive against UConn and St. John's I can probably convince myself we are trending upwards, even if we lose.

For me, the broader context matters.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Not believing someone when their past behavior indicates that wouldn't be the case is pretty normal.

Past behavior?  What is that?  Accurately stating that the team has been playing poorly for a long stretch of time, which is 100% backed up by the stats others have posted here?

Other posters have taken the optimistic view, posting things like Shaka's record at MU over and over and over again as if that has anything at all to do with the team's performance in the prior game. Others,  myself included, correctly point out flaws based on our actual performances and are castigated for it, even though they are 100% correct.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

"I don't believe you"...seriously?

Yes seriously. Do you believe everything you read on the internet?

[tower912]

Both are correct.  And both are castigated.  Message board.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not really. Because we were coming off a stretch of games where we mostly played like crap, against mostly bad teams, and we lost against any decent team we played. Now, we are coming off a stretch of games where we've looked much better, albeit against lousy teams. If we are competitive against UConn and St. John's I can probably convince myself we are trending upwards, even if we lose.

For me, the broader context matters.

Thanks explaining your thinking.

My experience is that game to game momentum in sports is mostly something made up by fans. Marquette is still the team that dominated November and could play like that in their next game.  They are still the team that played like crap in February and could play like that in their next game.

All teams have ceilings and floors. I don't think playing a game yesterday near our ceiling has any meaningful impact on whether we'll play close to our ceiling or our floor in the next game.