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MU82

Should be in the Doom thread.
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

GB Warrior

Amazing concept that innovation can come from appropriate resource optimization (both capital, compute). But we should seed Altman a couple more billion.

pbiflyer


Uncle Rico

Quote from: pbiflyer on January 26, 2025, 02:58:29 PM

I always ask myself, why does AI want to destroy humanity?  Shouldn't humanity ask itself that question?
Support Lutheran Family Services

MU82

Quote from: pbiflyer on January 26, 2025, 02:58:29 PM

Eddie Furlong was a great young actor. Once upon a time.
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

Shaka Shart

Just incredibly funny, but also given how much of our market growth has been tied up in AI probably not super great for the ole portfolios
" Ya gotta take the Scout board with a grain of salt. They fly off the handle too much. Besides you won't get banned over here for sayin', Crean farts in the bathtub." - 4everwarriors

Re: Who's Buzz in Memphis for?

February 17th, 2012

mu_hilltopper

#10
Ruh oh.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/27/deepseek-nvidia-stocks-magnificent-7


Truly, I've always wondered how the AI companies, Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc .. how they spend multiple billions on "AI" research.  Meta is gonna spend $65b on AI this year.

I mean .. there's hardware and programmers.  It's not like you need to convert diamonds into firetrucks.  You hire a bunch of code slingers and they code.  Yeah, yeah, you need beefy hardware. 

But .. 65 billion?   Maybe someone can explain.

jesmu84

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 27, 2025, 07:49:11 AMRuh oh.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/27/deepseek-nvidia-stocks-magnificent-7


Truly, I've always wondered how the AI companies, Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc .. how they spend multiple billions on "AI" research.  Meta is gonna spend $65b on AI this year.

I mean .. there's hardware and programmers.  It's not like you need to convert diamonds into firetrucks.  You hire a bunch of code slingers and they code.  Yeah, yeah, you need beefy hardware. 

But .. 65 billion?   Maybe someone can explain.


Seems silicon valley folks have been focusing on creating monopolies and eliminating competition more than development while also trying to gobble up as much money - privately and publicly - as possible.

Money grab > r&d

Shaka Shart

Quote from: jesmu84 on January 27, 2025, 09:36:02 AMSeems silicon valley folks have been focusing on creating monopolies and eliminating competition more than development while also trying to gobble up as much money - privately and publicly - as possible.

Money grab > r&d

R&D in the US a lot of times is just M&A now anyway
" Ya gotta take the Scout board with a grain of salt. They fly off the handle too much. Besides you won't get banned over here for sayin', Crean farts in the bathtub." - 4everwarriors

Re: Who's Buzz in Memphis for?

February 17th, 2012


Jockey

Not surprising.

The real purpose of AI is to control the flow of information. It's the reason that data is the #1 most valuable commodity in the world.

jesmu84

Quote from: Pakuni on January 27, 2025, 03:29:20 PMWeird.

https://x.com/KyleJGlen/status/1883968411556069853

Not weird.

No surprise the Chinese controlled software would have internal censors.

That doesn't take away from the rest of the story

Shaka Shart

Quote from: jesmu84 on January 27, 2025, 04:46:22 PMNot weird.

No surprise the Chinese controlled software would have internal censors.

That doesn't take away from the rest of the story

Yeah I assume they don't want to be arrested for their product
" Ya gotta take the Scout board with a grain of salt. They fly off the handle too much. Besides you won't get banned over here for sayin', Crean farts in the bathtub." - 4everwarriors

Re: Who's Buzz in Memphis for?

February 17th, 2012

Skatastrophy

#17
Quote from: jesmu84 on January 27, 2025, 04:46:22 PMNot weird.

No surprise the Chinese controlled software would have internal censors.

That doesn't take away from the rest of the story
The only real interesting part fo the story is how less resource intensive this product is, imo.

We are experiencing great leaps forward in this technology right now, it's getting both better and cheaper. And fast.

Nvidia not having to manufacture so many CPUs at such a high rate is a very good thing for humanity. Even though there's a little market turbulence about it.

I have no doubt the other AI companies will catch up quick once they see how it's done. You can install DeepStateSeek locally, so it'll be reverse engineered pretty quickly I'd imagine.

A CIO I talked to today estimated that this takes the cost of his company taking a product to market from ~$500MM to ~$5M. We're about to see a revolution where every company is leveraging AI models in interesting ways, not just the rich companies.

Shaka Shart

Quote from: Skatastrophy on January 27, 2025, 05:34:26 PMThe only real interesting part fo the story is how less resource intensive this product is, imo.

We are experiencing great leaps forward in this technology right now, it's getting both better and cheaper. And fast.

Nvidia not having to manufacture so many CPUs at such a high rate is a very good thing for humanity. Even though there's a little market turbulence about it.

I have no doubt the other AI companies will catch up quick once they see how it's done. You can install DeepStateSeek locally, so it'll be reverse engineered pretty quickly I'd imagine.

If it makes the fraud Sam Altman eat s***, all the better
" Ya gotta take the Scout board with a grain of salt. They fly off the handle too much. Besides you won't get banned over here for sayin', Crean farts in the bathtub." - 4everwarriors

Re: Who's Buzz in Memphis for?

February 17th, 2012

Skatastrophy

Quote from: Shaka Shart on January 27, 2025, 05:35:53 PMIf it makes the fraud Sam Altman eat s***, all the better
Yep, the more competition, the better in all industries. Concentration of power amplifies personality traits, turning eccentric people into the dangerous oligarch types.

jesmu84

Quote from: Skatastrophy on January 27, 2025, 05:51:07 PMYep, the more competition, the better in all industries. Concentration of power amplifies personality traits, turning eccentric people into the dangerous oligarch types.


Where are Taft and Roosevelt these days?

GB Warrior

Quote from: Skatastrophy on January 27, 2025, 05:51:07 PMYep, the more competition, the better in all industries. Concentration of power amplifies personality traits, turning eccentric people into the dangerous oligarch types.


Benevolent dictator and/or oligarchy is a cute theory but in practice they are all such fcking dweebs

forgetful

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 27, 2025, 07:49:11 AMRuh oh.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/27/deepseek-nvidia-stocks-magnificent-7


Truly, I've always wondered how the AI companies, Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc .. how they spend multiple billions on "AI" research.  Meta is gonna spend $65b on AI this year.

I mean .. there's hardware and programmers.  It's not like you need to convert diamonds into firetrucks.  You hire a bunch of code slingers and they code.  Yeah, yeah, you need beefy hardware. 

But .. 65 billion?   Maybe someone can explain.


I'm not an expert, but have an interest in this area. So I wouldn't take the below as 100% truth.

Bottom line is it is very expensive. For a 30,000 GPU data center (similar to OpenAI's usage) using the most recent tech, you are looking at ~$3b just for the hardware.

So why the high cost? Well, the Stargate plan is for a minimum of 10 of these data centers in the $100b Texas build. So that is ~$30b for the hardware.

Then you have to power them, at (back of the envelope calculation) 600-1000 MegaWatts of energy. The current plan is to power them with Small Modular Nuclear Reactors.

Cost for the reactors: ~$6-10b.

Add in massive infrastructure costs and other build costs and you are probably at $60-70b, without even starting to run them yet.

What is cool about DeepSeek's technology, is they are getting similar performance with 10x less computing power.

So scale everything back by a factor of 10, which opens the door for more capabilities.

That is what led to a sell-off today. The thought that maybe they won't need as many GPUs.

I'm not an expert, but my guess is that is 50% true. You can get excellent performance at lower cost. That will lead (in my opinion) to two outcomes.

1. More companies build their own systems with OpenAI type performance, but 10x lower cost. This allows the little guys to play in the big field.

2. Those with massive resources, still go the 30k+ GPU route, but now just increase the parameter size of their training models, and the capacity of their algorithms.

I think this might lead to an increased demand for chips longer term.

Coleman

This whole thing is fucking hilarious to me.

All of these "geniuses" blowing billions of dollars and China shows up and does it at a tiny fraction of the cost and computing power.

Mark Zuckerberg got rich because he made a website to creep on hot girls at Harvard University which is now used exclusively by boomers to share conspiracy theories. He doesn't know dick about AI. All of these oligarchs just got blown out of the water. And it is really satisfying.

mu_hilltopper

I think the current thought process for AI, the billions on hardware, CPU, and the need for gigawatts of energy .. just got completely blown up.

There was an article that had the amount of energy for ONE AI search pegged at 10 cents.    It should not come as a surprise that someone (today, Deepseek) figured out how to do it at 1 cent per search.

I'll guarantee that in 1-2-3 years, that number will be down to .1 cent.  The race has ALWAYS been on to invent a better mousetrap.  Hell, they'll use AI to optimize AI.  In 10 years, it'll be .001 cents.

I think Nvidia and all those who are in the process of investing billions are going to find themselves with a tsunami of processing power that won't be necessary.


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