2024-25 NCAA Basketball Thread

[PGsHeroes32]

UCLA with one of the biggest free throws line gag jobs you will see in that second half

[GoldenEagles03]

UCLA with one of the biggest free throws line gag jobs you will see in that second half

They lost!?!

Wow. I gave up on that one when they went up 17 in the first half. That's a bad loss at home to a very disappointing MN team.

[MuggsyB]

Whoa.  I assumed that was an autowin for the Bruins. 

That Mississippi St. team is interesting.  Hubbard can really ball. 

[PGsHeroes32]

They lost!?!

Wow. I have up on that one when they went up 17 in the first half. That's a bad loss at home to a very disappointing MN team.

That gopher team playing a lot better the last month+

But yeah. They let Dawson go for 25 in the second half and UClA was 5/15 from the line in 2nd half. MIss every late one. Gagged it.

[MuggsyB]

Is Zippy still alive?  Akron has won 14 straight. 

[GoldenEagles03]

Rooting interest for tonight.

Go Vandy! vs. Kentucky
Go Bama! vs. Mizzou
Go DePaul! vs. St. John's

Any others?

Go Bradley! vs. Illinois State for Rico

[We R Final Four]

What do you believe is the ideal time to foul up 3, WAFF? Sounds like less than 5 seconds?

The situation that happened to Niagara was the exact scenario Majerus used in explaining why he never fouled up 3. "The only way you can lose in regulation time is by giving up 4 points on that possession."

Ideally, 3-5 seconds.....prior to the genesis of the potential game tying 3. Surprised how poorly teams are attempting to execute this strategy. Either fouling way too soon, fouling in shooting motion, etc.
Letting the other team get off a good looking 3 in a risk........tip in/tip out on a missed FT is a risk.......fouling on a 3 is a risk.
Need to minimize that risk dependent on the circumstances.

[MU82]

Ideally, 3-5 seconds.....prior to the genesis of the potential game tying 3. Surprised how poorly teams are attempting to execute this strategy. Either fouling way too soon, fouling in shooting motion, etc.
Letting the other team get off a good looking 3 in a risk........tip in/tip out on a missed FT is a risk.......fouling on a 3 is a risk.
Need to minimize that risk dependent on the circumstances.

Thanks.

I wish somebody had done a more recent study on what the best strategy really is. The only one that I know that's out there had it as a toss-up.

I like to think that if I were coaching, I'd do it on a case-by-case basis - How is this opponent shooting? How are we rebounding against them? Etc. But if there's no set strategy it invites on-the-fly emotional decisions, and those probably aren't good, either.

[MU82]

From Yahoo Sports:

The top-ranked Auburn Tigers, who earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA's early bracket reveal, are extremely good.* They're also extremely old.‌

The average age of Auburn's starting five (23.2) is nearly the same as the average age of the NBA Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (24.1).

‌Chad Baker-Mazara: 25 (Super Senior)
Denver Jones: 24 (Super Senior)
Dylan Cardwell: 23 (Super Senior)
Johni Broome: 22 (Super Senior)
Miles Kelly: 22 (Senior)

Seven of the nine players averaging 10+ minutes per game for No. 1 Auburn are seniors (or super seniors). That's two more than No. 2 Florida and No. 3 Duke have in their rotations, combined.

Auburn's roster reflects the current state of college basketball, where unlimited transfers and NIL money have allowed programs to build experienced rosters on the strength of veteran talent.

‌Sure, some powerhouses still rely on one-and-done players, but countering that youth with maturity is a new recipe for success, and teams can recruit new upperclassmen each year in what is essentially free agency.

To wit, eight of the 15 players who've suited up for Auburn are upperclassmen transfers, and the Tigers aren't alone. No. 4 Alabama, their SEC rival, has six such players. No. 9 St. John's, enjoying their best season in decades, has seven.

[rocky_warrior]

I wish somebody had done a more recent study on what the best strategy really is. The only one that I know that's out there had it as a toss-up.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.13289

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[WhiteTrash]

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.13289

You cannot view this attachment.

I was told there would be no math on this fan site. 

[MU82]

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.13289

You cannot view this attachment.

I'm not enough of a math guy or data guy to know if this person's methodology was good or not.

After reading the full report, he suggests to foul up 3 with 6-9 seconds left on the game clock as long as there are at least 3 seconds left on the shot clock (or if the shot clock is turned off) OR to foul with 12+ seconds on the game clock.

The latter goes against conventional wisdom, and even the 6-9 seconds seems a little early ... but who knows?

He also acknowledges that the data doesn't account for information such as if the trailing team is a very good rebounding team.

I'd be hesitant to rely on this information ... but I did ask if there had been a more recent study, and you provided it. So thanks.

[Viper]

From Yahoo Sports:

The top-ranked Auburn Tigers, who earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA's early bracket reveal, are extremely good.* They're also extremely old.‌

The average age of Auburn's starting five (23.2) is nearly the same as the average age of the NBA Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (24.1).

‌Chad Baker-Mazara: 25 (Super Senior)
Denver Jones: 24 (Super Senior)
Dylan Cardwell: 23 (Super Senior)
Johni Broome: 22 (Super Senior)
Miles Kelly: 22 (Senior)

Seven of the nine players averaging 10+ minutes per game for No. 1 Auburn are seniors (or super seniors). That's two more than No. 2 Florida and No. 3 Duke have in their rotations, combined.

Auburn's roster reflects the current state of college basketball, where unlimited transfers and NIL money have allowed programs to build experienced rosters on the strength of veteran talent.

‌Sure, some powerhouses still rely on one-and-done players, but countering that youth with maturity is a new recipe for success, and teams can recruit new upperclassmen each year in what is essentially free agency.

To wit, eight of the 15 players who've suited up for Auburn are upperclassmen transfers, and the Tigers aren't alone. No. 4 Alabama, their SEC rival, has six such players. No. 9 St. John's, enjoying their best season in decades, has seven.

Tonje for UW is what, 24, 25? All their big guys are true or 5th yr seniors. I mentioned here prior that Tonje could ball and RED signing him was big for Gard after losing Hepburn...but it's not just that. He's experienced. Doesn't get rattled. I've noticed the same w/Auburn. Their game at 'Bama? Took the crowd out for the most part. Contrast to Duke. They start 3 fresh, I believe. I don't see Duke going deep for two reasons...ACC is a mirage. Weak. And, experience (age) at tourney time is huge.

[tower912]

Next season sees the end of the COVID season.  Fewer 24-5 year-olds going forward.

[wisblue]

I was also puzzling about the part of the "fouling up by 3":study dealing with fouls with more than 10 seconds left in the game.

Is there any coach that would say that he would foul intentionally that early? I would expect that most, if not all, fouls committed with that much time left were not intentional.

[Uncle Rico]

Next season sees the end of the COVID season.  Fewer 24-5 year-olds going forward.

Too bad.  Wanted to see Nigel James try and take to the hoop against Alcindor

[Uncle Rico]

Anyway, Bradley travels to Illinois State tonight at 7PM on CBSS.

The Barves look to avoid a letdown after beating Drake this weekend.

[tower912]

Too bad.  Wanted to see Nigel James try and take to the hoop against Alcindor

Nope.  In that match up, Nigel would get Kareem-ed.

[wadesworld]

Next season sees the end of the COVID season.  Fewer 24-5 year-olds going forward.

Until they approve 5 years of eligibility.

[Scoop Snoop]

Anyway, Bradley travels to Illinois State tonight at 7PM on CBSS.

The Barves look to avoid a letdown after beating Drake this weekend.

The what?

[Scoop Snoop]

In a classic example of schadenfreude, take a look at the NC St./UNC game on ESPN. 67-43 UNC as of now. NC St is 10-15, 3-11. Yeah, I know...a lot of good that does Marquette now, but again...schadenfreude works for me here.

[tower912]

Probably hit the portal hard and are waiting for the pieces to fall into place.

[We R Final Four]

Tonje for UW is what, 24, 25? All their big guys are true or 5th yr seniors. I mentioned here prior that Tonje could ball and RED signing him was big for Gard after losing Hepburn...but it's not just that. He's experienced. Doesn't get rattled. I've noticed the same w/Auburn. Their game at 'Bama? Took the crowd out for the most part. Contrast to Duke. They start 3 fresh, I believe. I don't see Duke going deep for two reasons...ACC is a mirage. Weak. And, experience (age) at tourney time is huge.

You dont even attempt to hide your live for Red on here.

[rocky_warrior]

Is there any coach that would say that he would foul intentionally that early? I would expect that most, if not all, fouls committed with that much time left were not intentional.

Maybe they should study more data before answering.

[Uncle Rico]

Barves down 8 at half to the Redbirds