US Economy, part 2

[MU82]

Yes, there is science disputing global blah blah, but unfortunately there isnt any money in those positions. 

One case in point- the raising and lower of Lake Michigan levels.  When the levels were seriously down a few years ago...damn that global warming.  Now that they are back up and there is evidence of shore line erosion...ruh-roh, damn that global blah blah again.

The Lake Michigan water levels have been recorded daily since the early 1900's and the may 2024 reading recorded by the army corps of engineers at 579.36 feet above sea level which is almost the average of what has been recorded over the past century for may.  Back in 2013, the climate people were gleefully panicking due to the seemingly low levels of the lake around 575 feet. Well over the next few years (2020) it rose to 582 feet.  You guessed it- renewed panic kicked in...well it has since dropped 3 feet to its present level

If only global blah blah would sit still eyna?

It is used by "scientists" to get papers published and by politicians to justify requesting and spending money         hey, the climate boogy man is here...just pay him to go away

Wrong again, keeping your decades-long streak alive. Congrats.

[MU82]

Inflation report this morning and a Fed statement this afternoon - fascinating kind of day to be a market watcher.

A few minutes ago, the inflation report came in, and it was cooler than expected. That is making Mr. Market want to celebrate, and futures are up. But there's a cautious tone ahead of whatever Powell and the Fed are gonna signal a few hours from now.

Here's Seeking Alpha's article on May CPI: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115144-mays-cpi-cools-more-than-expected-with-core-cpi-rising-34-yy?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yes, there is science disputing global blah blah, but unfortunately there isnt any money in those positions. 

Fox News:



vs. Reality


Thermometers have a well-known liberal bias

[Skatastrophy]

I don't think the weather will have an impact on the economy.

[Pakuni]

Yes, there is science disputing global blah blah, but unfortunately there isnt any money in those positions. 

LOL.
The oil industry literally has spent billions of dollars trying to deny climate science.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/08/oil-companies-climate-crisis-pr-spending

[Pakuni]

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are rallying Wednesday following a surprisingly encouraging update on inflation.

The S&P 500 was 0.9% higher in early trading and on track to add to its record set a day earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 297 points, or 0.8%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.2% higher.

The action was even stronger in the bond market, where Treasury yields tumbled after the report showed U.S. consumers paid prices that were 3.3% higher for food, insurance and everything else last month, versus a year earlier. Economists had been expecting to see the inflation rate stuck at 3.4%.

https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-fed-rates-inflation-67e0a324c1f203de37dcf4d4390d53c3

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Everything interest rate sensitive in my portfolio is going crazy, one might even say overreacting to a very minor tick down in inflation.

[MU82]

Everything interest rate sensitive in my portfolio is going crazy, one might even say overreacting to a very minor tick down in inflation.

It's wild, especially considering that Powell & Co. could throw cold water on the market in a few hours.

[Not all scoop users are created equal apparently]

Yes, there is science disputing global blah blah, but unfortunately there isnt any money in those positions. 

One case in point- the raising and lower of Lake Michigan levels.  When the levels were seriously down a few years ago...damn that global warming.  Now that they are back up and there is evidence of shore line erosion...ruh-roh, damn that global blah blah again.

The Lake Michigan water levels have been recorded daily since the early 1900's and the may 2024 reading recorded by the army corps of engineers at 579.36 feet above sea level which is almost the average of what has been recorded over the past century for may.  Back in 2013, the climate people were gleefully panicking due to the seemingly low levels of the lake around 575 feet. Well over the next few years (2020) it rose to 582 feet.  You guessed it- renewed panic kicked in...well it has since dropped 3 feet to its present level

If only global blah blah would sit still eyna?

It is used by "scientists" to get papers published and by politicians to justify requesting and spending money         hey, the climate boogy man is here...just pay him to go away

[Hards Alumni]

Thermometers have a well-known liberal bias

Careful, the billionaire scientist class will come for you next!

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The metal support frame snapped on my tractor and I had to buy a new tractor for mowing my lawn this week.  Not an inexpensive purchase anymore I quickly realized.  The guy at Lowe's said they had record sales for outdoor power equipment this season and people are still buying. 

[Goose]

MUFan

There is no doubt the cost of lawn tractor and mowers have skyrocketed. That said, I do not believe the average sales guy at Lowe's fully understands the whole story on record sales. If a tractor doubled in price, they better have record sales. I have mentioned before that my neighbor owns two Culvers and the number one thing he checks is number or transactions. If transactions go down is when he is gets nervous.

[The Sultan]

MUFan

There is no doubt the cost of lawn tractor and mowers have skyrocketed. That said, I do not believe the average sales guy at Lowe's fully understands the whole story on record sales. If a tractor doubled in price, they better have record sales. I have mentioned before that my neighbor owns two Culvers and the number one thing he checks is number or transactions. If transactions go down is when he is gets nervous.

Not sure buying a durable good like a lawn tractor, which is done once a decade or so, is really comparable to a value meal.

But sure. I'm sure the guy who sells them doesn't understand the whole story.

[Uncle Rico]

MUFan

There is no doubt the cost of lawn tractor and mowers have skyrocketed. That said, I do not believe the average sales guy at Lowe's fully understands the whole story on record sales. If a tractor doubled in price, they better have record sales. I have mentioned before that my neighbor owns two Culvers and the number one thing he checks is number or transactions. If transactions go down is when he is gets nervous.

Seasonal sales items like lawnmowers are often weather dependent.  Not sure the weather situation in Connecticut, but here in Wisconsin, I'm sure those sales are through the roof as well.

Just like this past winter, snow removal items would have slumped.

[Goose]

Sultan

My point is they can have record sales on lawn garden and still likely have a 25+% reduction in units sold. I am very active in the lawn and garden space and one major brand is down over 40% on units made this year. Transactions are extremely important and are a big part of the sales story.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

MUFan

There is no doubt the cost of lawn tractor and mowers have skyrocketed. That said, I do not believe the average sales guy at Lowe's fully understands the whole story on record sales. If a tractor doubled in price, they better have record sales. I have mentioned before that my neighbor owns two Culvers and the number one thing he checks is number or transactions. If transactions go down is when he is gets nervous.

He meant the number of units sold, not sales dollars (which is obviously probably up).

I have to wait on my bagger unit (which I don't need until September anyway) because they aren't even available for sale until Toro can put more in inventory.  He said Lowe's was out nationwide.  (They seemed available Sunday, but yesterday was the first chance I had to buy.)

[Pakuni]

Just fwiw

The U.S. Lawn Mower Market is projected to grow from USD 6,102.19 million in 2023 to an estimated USD 9,796.06 million by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.40% from 2024 to 2032. This robust growth trajectory is driven by increasing consumer interest in lawn care and landscaping, coupled with technological advancements in lawn mower design and functionality. As homeowners continue to invest in the aesthetic appeal and maintenance of their outdoor spaces, the demand for efficient and innovative lawn mowers is set to rise steadily over the forecast period.

https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/us-lawn-mower-market

I am genuinely curious why a guy who sells lawnmowers doesn't understand the big picture of his industry, but the guy who sells ButterBurgers is an expert on macroeconomics.

[Goose]

Pakuni

I would think a business owner might be a better judge of the economy over a Lowe's sales guy, but I'll follow your lead.

MUFan
I am somewhat skeptical on number of units sold but will take your word on it. Again, our client is a very well know player in lawn and garden and they projected to be down roughly 20% this year and now are forecasting a 40% reduction in units made. Granted they had inventory and their sales at the moment are not down 40%.

Hey, I listen to the idiot the owns two successful Culvers to get some insight on the economy and I should be listening to the guy at Lowe's. Lesson learned.

[Pakuni]

Pakuni

I would think a business owner might be a better judge of the economy over a Lowe's sales guy, but I'll follow your lead.

MUFan
I am somewhat skeptical on number of units sold but will take your word on it. Again, our client is a very well know player in lawn and garden and they projected to be down roughly 20% this year and now are forecasting a 40% reduction in units made. Granted they had inventory and their sales at the moment are not down 40%.

Hey, I listen to the idiot the owns two successful Culvers to get some insight on the economy and I should be listening to the guy at Lowe's. Lesson learned.

In summary:
Anecdotal evidence that supports your view = good.
Anecdotal evidence that contradicts your view = bad.

[The Sultan]

Hey, I listen to the idiot the owns two successful Culvers to get some insight on the economy and I should be listening to the guy at Lowe's. Lesson learned.

Nobody said or inferred that. It's that you dismiss what the guy from Lowes thinks, but take it for gospel what the guy who owns a Culvers thinks.  Even though the two industries aren't all that comparable.

[Goose]

Sultan,

My neighbor is one of many people I talk to about the economy and the consumer in general. We have roughly 40 active clients and the 75% is consumer goods related across countless product categories. Our clients serve every large box store, e-commerce on their own and every major e-commerce platform. Getting an overview of every industry/business I find to be valuable.

For the record, I always ask sales guys at box stores how business is going and appreciate their feedback. That said, I always ask follow up questions. For example, if a guy says we sell every item the minute it arrives to the store, I ask if they are getting enough product delivered and how many people ask for a product and cannot buy it because of out of stock.

So, not dismissing the Lowe's guy, only questioning if he has the full story or not. As for the Culvers guy, I sure hope he does know the whole story at his business.

[Hards Alumni]

Culver's just prints money.  Personally, I wouldn't use them as bellwether for the economy.

[Skatastrophy]

People still go to box stores? Lol

[JWags85]

People still go to box stores? Lol

I live 5 min from a Home Depot and the parking lot is almost ALWAYS crowded.  On the weekends its a zoo

[MU82]

Goose, serious question: You know lots of business owners and execs; does every single one of them think the economy is no good?

I'm sure I don't know as many as you do, but those I have talked to ... some say the economy is working very well for their industry, and some say the economy's not working all that well for their business right now. The one thing every one of them agrees on is that things are a hell of a lot better now than it was 4 years ago.

But maybe in your case, everyone you deal with is in "look out below!" mode. Interested to know. Thanks.