Mortgage rates and the housing market

[wadesworld]

actually no, i'm down in Az enjoying 90+ last thursday thru monday, tuesday it climate changed down to mid-high 70's into 80's mid afternoon.  today, the climate changed down to high 40's early morning and now will probably get into mid 70's slight breeze, but in direct sun it feels pretty warm.  must have been a lot of diesel burning and heavy breathing all that CO2 fluctuating 

And this dude does science for his job...

[forgetful]

Climate Change Should Make You Rethink Homeownership

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/opinion/renting-owning-climate-change.html?

As the Southeast begins to recover from back-to-back hurricanes, potential home buyers across the country should take notice of the billions of dollars in property damage from the storms, some of it uninsured. The tremendous loss in places such as Swannanoa, N.C., and Keaton Beach, Fla., shows that homeownership in a world of growing disaster risk is less of an asset than it once was.

Homeownership is not simply a financial decision, but also a deeply emotional one. It's core to the American dream, representing financial permanence and a sense of stability for young and old families alike. But climate change is likely making homeownership more expensive and less predictable in large swaths of the country, and it's only getting worse.

As insurance premiums and property taxes rise, and future home values grow more uncertain, it's time for some prospective buyers set on living in areas with high risk of hurricanes, floods, wildfires and tornadoes to reconsider homeownership as a financial goal. Renting is quickly becoming a better way for many people to enjoy these places with much less financial baggage.

One of the biggest reasons homeownership is not what it used to be is the turmoil in property insurance markets. According to a recent report by Intercontinental Exchange Inc., a data and technology firm, the average property insurance payment for a mortgaged single family home has increased by 52 percent around the country since 2019.

My research with Philip Mulder at the University of Wisconsin- Madison shows a sharp increase in property insurance in the most disaster-prone parts of the country. In Florida, for example, average premiums have increased by $1,450 between 2020 and 2023. In essence, the insurance industry has decided that the risk of living in certain areas is now greater than it was previously.

For many wealthier homeowners, paying more in insurance premiums isn't a deal breaker. Other homeowners may adjust to growing insurance costs by bearing more of the risk themselves: raising their deductibles, reducing their coverage or dropping insurance policies altogether. But without coverage, families will face crushing losses in the event of a disaster.

A second cost borne by homeowners in a warming world is higher property taxes in part because towns and cities must pay for resiliency and repair efforts. Those taxes have increased on average by 18 percent for single family homes since 2019, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. found, and growth has been stronger in areas more prone to climate risk. If communities want to protect themselves against future disaster risks, the cost of large infrastructure investments — like sea walls or improved storm water drainage — are going to be felt by local taxpayers.

These two costs, insurance and property taxes, usually adjust on an annual basis, so they can change quickly, and uncertainty about them is making it harder to budget for the expected costs of homeownership. Historically, buying a house with cash or a fixed-rate mortgage was thought to broadly lock in housing expenses. This is no longer true, with important consequences for retirees on a fixed income or low-income home buyers looking for predictability.

There is also greater uncertainty around the value of the house itself. To date, we've seen little evidence that house prices truly capture the cost of climate change. But the prices of houses in places with growing climate risk should reflect that risk, and eventually decline. That means some homes won't end up being the good investments they now appear to be.

All of those issues with owning are making renting a safer, lower-risk option for many people who want to avoid those costs, maintain flexibility and put their wealth in assets that aren't exposed to weather risk. While landlords still have to take on the risk, they may have more resources for and experience shopping for insurance, giving them better coverage in the long run.

There are very real downsides to renting. Renters may find themselves needing to move if the property is destroyed, unsafe or redeveloped, or if rent increases are too high. Landlords may not maintain the property well, or they may be slow to invest in ways to make it more resilient to extreme weather. In some rental markets, landlords may pass along much of these costs of climate change to their tenants. Many households have also enjoyed the freedom and stability of homeownership for years and don't want to go back to dealing with a landlord.

But at a minimum, the choice between renting and owning should be made with clear information about risks.

The idea that people should forgo buying a house because of these rising costs, and rent instead, doesn't make sense.

Those same rising costs, will lead to increases in rental prices, leading to a net benefit in owning still.

This reads like it was written by investment firms further trying to corner the real estate market so they can monopolize the housing industry and profit off of the need for shelter.

[MU82]

The idea that people should forgo buying a house because of these rising costs, and rent instead, doesn't make sense.

Those same rising costs, will lead to increases in rental prices, leading to a net benefit in owning still.

This reads like it was written by investment firms further trying to corner the real estate market so they can monopolize the housing industry and profit off of the need for shelter.

Yes and no. Landlords will pass along most rising costs to renters, yes. But there are still  price points at which renting makes more sense than buying, and good calculators that can help determine those.

There are all kinds of costs and commitments that go with homeownership. Renting is better for lots of people - even many who could afford owning.

We have rented for long stretches and also have owned 5 houses in 3 metro areas, and there were pros and cons to both.

[CreightonWarrior]

Outlook is very rough for mortgage rates.

[forgetful]

Outlook is very rough for mortgage rates.

Expectations are that mortgage rates and inflation will rise significantly.

[MU82]

Could be a strange, wild ride. If tariffs push inflation higher and the Fed wants to raise rates again to tackle that, will it have the independence to do so?

Mortgage rates are already frustrating.

[rocket surgeon]

btw, i remember some here poking fun(shocker) at me for suggesting the surge in illegals would increase cost of home buying-ahem, sally et.al. there are many articles showing that i was correct. not holding my beath on sally issuing an apology


chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Camarota-Testimony.pdf

https://www.fairus.org/news/executive/course-illegal-immigration-driving-cost-housing

and there are many more

[The Sultan]

btw, i remember some here poking fun(shocker) at me for suggesting the surge in illegals would increase cost of home buying-ahem, sally et.al. there are many articles showing that i was correct. not holding my beath on sally issuing an apology


chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Camarota-Testimony.pdf

https://www.fairus.org/news/executive/course-illegal-immigration-driving-cost-housing

and there are many more

1. One of your links is bad.
2. Posting from clearly biased sources doesn't really prove anything.
3. Rocky announced a politics ban that I hope you have the ability to follow.

[Skatastrophy]

1. One of your links is bad.
2. Posting from clearly biased sources doesn't really prove anything.
3. Rocky announced a politics ban that I hope you have the ability to follow.

I have an off-topic hair-brained scheme that will improve Scoop.

Rocky should run for office. Then, anytime someone mentions him, he could ban them for politics.

[Pakuni]

btw, i remember some here poking fun(shocker) at me for suggesting the surge in illegals would increase cost of home buying-ahem, sally et.al. there are many articles showing that i was correct. not holding my beath on sally issuing an apology


chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Camarota-Testimony.pdf

https://www.fairus.org/news/executive/course-illegal-immigration-driving-cost-housing

and there are many more

Not true.

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/18/nx-s1-5138059/examining-how-undocumented-migrants-are-affecting-housing-prices

[MU82]

btw, i remember some here poking fun(shocker) at me for suggesting the surge in illegals would increase cost of home buying-ahem, sally et.al. there are many articles showing that i was correct. not holding my beath on sally issuing an apology


chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Camarota-Testimony.pdf

https://www.fairus.org/news/executive/course-illegal-immigration-driving-cost-housing

and there are many more

Sure seems like a political post.

[MU82]

The Spring Home Sales Season Is Shaping Up to Be a Dud

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/spring-2025-housing-market-sales-90f41fb3?st=fwNoce&mod=djemwhatsnews

The troubled housing market can't seem to get back on track.

Inventory of homes for sale is steadily rising, but demand is still tepid. Home prices in parts of the country are falling. But with prices not much below record highs, many would-be buyers are still squeezed out. Mortgage rates are hovering around 6.75%, more than double the level of only a few years ago.

The crucial spring selling season is shaping up as a dud, crushing hopes that a housing market that has been anemic for more than two years can gain significant momentum this year.

"It definitely feels like a disappointment," said Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, a real-estate data provider.

The recent deterioration in the economic backdrop and consumer sentiment is making matters worse, cooling buyer appetite for big purchases like a new home.

Even in markets where there is a glut of inventory and sellers are offering concessions, it isn't enough to get the market moving nationally.

[Shaka Shart]

I'm seeing more houses for sale than last year around me, but not a lot of sold signs

[MU82]

I'm seeing more houses for sale than last year around me, but not a lot of sold signs

Things don't seem to have changed much in Seattle yet. Any halfway decent house in a nice area goes quickly with multiple offers at outrageous prices. A separate WSJ article, however, says Seattle is the #1 major metro in which sellers are offering concessions such as rate buydowns, carpet/paint allowances, etc - 71% of sellers are paying such things now vs only 36% last year. So that's something.

[The Sultan]

Median days on market is still pretty low...around 50. I guess we will see what happens in the coming weeks and months. But there just isn't a lot of inventory.

[Shaka Shart]

Yeah if I had to guess by me it's people marking up to start off

[The Sultan]

Yeah if I had to guess by me it's people marking up to start off

Oh I definitely see that. I think people have inflated expectations.

[wadesworld]

Had ours under contract in 2 days. Unfortunately the buyer is asking to come to our house basically every day, so it's like we still have it on the market with a bunch of interest but no bites.

[Hards Alumni]

Yeah if I had to guess by me it's people marking up to start off

I think I read something yesterday that people are asking 7% more than their homes are worth currently.

[warriorchick]

Chick Jr just closed on a house a few weeks ago in a western suburb of Milwaukee.  There were 7 people bidding on the same house.  She has other friends that have lost multiple bidding wars in the Milwaukee area.

[Billy Hoyle]

an agent we talked to about our condo said we were better off renting it out for now. We are under 3% on our interest rate and are able to get slightly more in rent than we pay monthly. We'll see where the market stands in a year.

[Shaka Shart]

Chick Jr just closed on a house a few weeks ago in a western suburb of Milwaukee.  There were 7 people bidding on the same house.  She has other friends that have lost multiple bidding wars in the Milwaukee area.

Hopefully upwind of the bullets flying from the dental offices of Mequon

[wadesworld]

Chick Jr just closed on a house a few weeks ago in a western suburb of Milwaukee.  There were 7 people bidding on the same house.  She has other friends that have lost multiple bidding wars in the Milwaukee area.

Tame compared to what it was in recent years.

[dgies9156]

Chick Jr just closed on a house a few weeks ago in a western suburb of Milwaukee.  There were 7 people bidding on the same house.  She has other friends that have lost multiple bidding wars in the Milwaukee area.

My daughter and her husband gave up in Syracuse, NY and leased a townhouse for two years for the same reason as Chick, Jr. Every time they bid on a home, there were multiple, "above ask" bidders. And, the sellers were not allowing inspections by buyers.

[MU82]

Interesting to hear that about the housing markets in Syracuse and Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, from what I've read, in the Phoenix area and the Austin area supply has become greater than demand. Houses are sitting on the market, and bidding wars have become rare.

And in many areas of Florida, people are bailing. Prices ran up way too quickly, and insurance is outrageous and sometimes impossible to get. In some Fla markets, sellers are panicking as houses (and especially condos) sit on the market for months.

Here in Seattle, prices are still outrageous - $1 million to $1.25 million for starter homes. But prices haven't increased much the last year or so, and inventory is finally starting to catch up with demand.

All of the above serves as yet another reminder about how local real estate is.