NC State

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Thoughts on Friday's opponent?  They've obviously been playing extremely well to win 7 games in a row, including 2 over Duke and UNC. 

In looking at KenPom and some of their advances stats (below) there's nothing they seem to do extremely well aside from take care of the basketball.  They don't shoot from 3 at a high level or a high rate.  They're not a good offensive rebounding team and they don't block a lot of shots.

Obviously Burns is a load on offense but I imagine we can take advantage of him in the P&R as well as just getting up and down the court. 

Obviously we can lose this game if we don't bring it but there's nothing jumping out at me as overly worrisome, aside from the fact they are hot right now. 

What are people's thoughts on the match-up?

KenPom Overall - 52
KenPom AdjO - 42
KenPom AdjD - 75

Not a great team from behind the arc (34.7%) or at the line (73.4%)

187th in eFG%.  95th in ORtg. 178th in FTr.  284th in 3PAr.

202nd in ORB%.

259th in AST%

Don't turn the ball over a lot (11.9% TOV% - 13th in the country).  86th in STL%.

159th in BLK% so that doesn't appear to be a concern in regards to how effective we are around the rim. 

166th in pace

[tower912]

On a helluva run.   Congratulations.  Mad respect.    I trust MU more than I fear the Wolfpack.

[bradforster]

Thoughts on Friday's opponent?  They've obviously been playing extremely well to win 7 games in a row, including 2 over Duke and UNC. 

In looking at KenPom and some of their advances stats (below) there's nothing they seem to do extremely well aside from take care of the basketball.  They don't shoot from 3 at a high level or a high rate.  They're not a good offensive rebounding team and they don't block a lot of shots.

Obviously Burns is a load on offense but I imagine we can take advantage of him in the P&R as well as just getting up and down the court. 

Obviously we can lose this game if we don't bring it but there's nothing jumping out at me as overly worrisome, aside from the fact they are hot right now. 

What are people's thoughts on the match-up?

KenPom Overall - 52
KenPom AdjO - 42
KenPom AdjD - 75

Not a great team from behind the arc (34.7%) or at the line (73.4%)

187th in eFG%.  95th in ORtg. 178th in FTr.  284th in 3PAr.

202nd in ORB%.

259th in AST%

Don't turn the ball over a lot (11.9% TOV% - 13th in the country).  86th in STL%.

159th in BLK% so that doesn't appear to be a concern in regards to how effective we are around the rim. 

166th in pace

I like the fact Vegas has tabbed MU as a solid six and a half point favorite.

[Pakuni]

I like the fact Vegas has tabbed MU as a solid six and a half point favorite.

Only UConn (- 9.5) and Arizona (-7) are heavier favorites.

[avid1010]

I like the fact Vegas has tabbed MU as a solid six and a half point favorite.

Yup...and it looks like it will move to 7-7.5 by game time.

[Jay Bee]

NC State has the heaviest underdog aina

They are good at not turning it over. After that, lotta mediocrity

If we don’t p1ss the bed with a horrendous 3fg%, should be good

[Hards Alumni]

Thoughts on Friday's opponent?  They've obviously been playing extremely well to win 7 games in a row, including 2 over Duke and UNC. 

In looking at KenPom and some of their advances stats (below) there's nothing they seem to do extremely well aside from take care of the basketball.  They don't shoot from 3 at a high level or a high rate.  They're not a good offensive rebounding team and they don't block a lot of shots.

Obviously Burns is a load on offense but I imagine we can take advantage of him in the P&R as well as just getting up and down the court. 

Obviously we can lose this game if we don't bring it but there's nothing jumping out at me as overly worrisome, aside from the fact they are hot right now. 

What are people's thoughts on the match-up?

KenPom Overall - 52
KenPom AdjO - 42
KenPom AdjD - 75

Not a great team from behind the arc (34.7%) or at the line (73.4%)

187th in eFG%.  95th in ORtg. 178th in FTr.  284th in 3PAr.

202nd in ORB%.

259th in AST%

Don't turn the ball over a lot (11.9% TOV% - 13th in the country).  86th in STL%.

159th in BLK% so that doesn't appear to be a concern in regards to how effective we are around the rim. 

166th in pace

They're easily the worst team remaining.

If we lose to them, I will be extremely disappointed.

[BrewCity83]

I watched NC State's game Friday.  My biggest worry right now is what time Sunday's game will be, and whether I'll be able to watch it live.

[mu_hilltopper]

NC State has been hot in March. 

7 game winning streak, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech.   No slouches.  Over the past 25 days, they're a top 25 team, easy.

https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2024&sort=&t1l=Marquette&t2l=North+Carolina+St.&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&begin=20240301&end=20240501&top=0&revquad=0&quad=4&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0

(admittedly, MU's t-rank is low due to Kolek not playing in many March games..)

[tower912]

5 of MU's nine losses are to teams in the elite 8.    Kalkbrenner, Edey, and Clingan.    Though I do respect his abilities and accomplishments, I do not feel that Burns is in their class.  To borrow from Shaka, if MU is the best version of themselves, MU  will be the better team. 

[FairWeatherEagle]

We are better and confident of a win. But the thread has a purpose. We could lose if....A or B or C happens. (and not talking about crazy stuff). How did NCST beat UNC for example? What went extremely right for them and/or wrong for UNC?
Why didn't we have an easy margin over CO. I certainly thought after the game we are a double digit better team than them. Da-Silva was hot. Does NCST have a DaSilva waiting for us? Why do we let down and get so inconsistent sometimes. What is Shaka working on with his assistant coaches? What about NCST has them working. Or maybe they're just eating ice cream.

[tower912]

According to a self professed NCState fan on the Dodds board, the Wolfpack season turned around when they went away from a 4 out set and started playing two bigs together.   At the same time, they moved Burns closer to the basket and started making him more of a focal point in their offense. 

[Jay Bee]

I watched NC State's game Friday.  My biggest worry right now is what time Sunday's game will be, and whether I'll be able to watch it live.

What time is mass?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I watched NC State's game Friday.  My biggest worry right now is what time Sunday's game will be, and whether I'll be able to watch it live.

Last year's Sunday regional finals were at 2:20 and 5:00 Central Time.

[BrewCity83]

What time is mass?

8:00 am Mass Sunday if need be.

[Uncle Rico]

According to a self professed NCState fan on the Dodds board, the Wolfpack season turned around when they went away from a 4 out set and started playing two bigs together.   At the same time, they moved Burns closer to the basket and started making him more of a focal point in their offense.

I have a wild theory.  If you make the Sweet 16, chances are, your opponent will present a challenge.  I think the Wolfpack have been fluky/lucky but they’ve taken advantage of it.

NC State was 3-7 in Feb/March heading into the ACC Tournament.  They weren’t a bubble team at any point.  Kevin Keatts was a potential coaching casualty.

Has a switch gone off?  Possibly, I suppose and the numbers seem to indicate they’ve been a top-25 team this month.  But you’re right, Marquette is better.  And should win.  But we play the games and anything is possible but I’ll take my chances with a team that has been consistently good for 2 years.

[tower912]

MU being 56-16 is not a fluke.

[Pakuni]

I have a wild theory.  If you make the Sweet 16, chances are, your opponent will present a challenge.  I think the Wolfpack have been fluky/lucky but they’ve taken advantage of it.

NC State was 3-7 in Feb/March heading into the ACC Tournament.  They weren’t a bubble team at any point.  Kevin Keatts was a potential coaching casualty.

Has a switch gone off?  Possibly, I suppose and the numbers seem to indicate they’ve been a top-25 team this month.  But you’re right, Marquette is better.  And should win.  But we play the games and anything is possible but I’ll take my chances with a team that has been consistently good for 2 years.

Yep.
I don't think NC State wins if MU brings its A or B+ game, but Marquette throwing up a clunker isn't an impossibility (see: March 19, 2023).

[NickelDimer]

Just win baby

[PGsHeroes32]

Of course we can lose, but all things considered even with Nc State being "hot" you cant expect much better opportunity in the sweet 16 than a team that was not gonna make the tournament without a auto bid.

Gotta barbecue chicken Burns. Make shots and advance.

[tower912]

Lampkin was a good warm up for Burns.

[Pakuni]

The Athletic did a re-seeding of the Sweet 16 teams.

Marquette comes in at #7 behind UConn, Purdue, Houston, UNC, Arizona and Tennessee.
Creighton is #11.

NC State? #16.

[cheebs09]

The Athletic did a re-seeding of the Sweet 16 teams.

Marquette comes in at #7 behind UConn, Purdue, Houston, UNC, Arizona and Tennessee.
Creighton is #11.

NC State? #16.

Ugh, it would be embarrassing to lose to a 16 seed.

[tower912]

The Athletic did a re-seeding of the Sweet 16 teams.

Marquette comes in at #7 behind UConn, Purdue, Houston, UNC, Arizona and Tennessee.
Creighton is #11.

NC State? #16.

Passed Iowa Srate?  Yippee.

[Scoop Snoop]

Of course we can lose, but all things considered even with Nc State being "hot" you cant expect much better opportunity in the sweet 16 than a team that was not gonna make the tournament without a auto bid.

Gotta barbecue chicken Burns. Make shots and advance.

BBQ chicken and pizza is what our players should have on the bench with them. The aromas will make Burns forget about the game.

I expect a MU win, but some of the macho talk here after the Colorado game surprises me, but just a little. We're the better team and come from a tougher conference.