20/20 Club

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There's an old adage that in order to win a national championship, you must be top 20 in both KenPom's AdjO and AdjD. This has been true of every champion in the KenPom era (since 99) with only two exceptions. Baylor in 2021 was 2nd in AdjO and 21st in AdjD (so .1 off from meeting the criteria) and UConn was 39th in AdjO and 10th in AdjD (Shabazz Napier defied the laws of KenPom and nature).

This isn't exactly groundbreaking. Teams that are great at both sides of the ball tend to win championships. There's also the reality that these numbers are collected after madness is over, so teams outside the 20/20 club can play themselves in. Still, if you're looking to fill out your bracket, picking a 20/20 club member to win it is usually a safe bet.

With last night's dominating offensive performance (the defense was elite in the first half but we got lazy in the second), we are now just barely in the 20/20 club. Technically we're ranked 21st in offense but we're tied with Clemson at 118.6 AdjO a piece so I think it's fair to say we're tied for 20th.

I've been watching this all season. We actually started with an elite offensive ranking and mediocre defensive ranking but they flip flopped at almost the exact same time. Our offense cratered to being ranked in the 50s after the Butler debacle but we've been clawing our way back ever since.

We're one of 6 current members of the 20/20 club:

Houston (18th AdjO, 1st AdjD, 1st overall)
UConn (4th AdjO, 18 AdjD, 3rd overal)
Arizona (6th AdjO, 11th AdjD, 4th overall)
Tennessee (17th  AdjO, 3rd AdjD, 5th overall)
Auburn (13th AdjO, 6th AdjD, 6th overall)
Marquette (20th AdjO, 14th AdjD, 11th overall)

There are a few teams that are really close and could play their way in:

Purdue (2nd AdjO, 22nd AdjD, 2nd overall)
Duke (8th AdjO, 25th AdjD, 8th overall)
North Carolina (25th AdjO, 7th AdjD, 9th overall)
Creighton (11th AdjO, 23rd AdjD, 12th overall)

Everyone else is too unbalanced to conceivably play their way into the 20/20 club by April 8. I think the eventual national champion will be one of these 10 teams. Feels good to be on that list.

[fjm]

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[Goose]

TAMU

I have been this closely as well. I really like the strides they have made on both sides of the ball. The offense rating has had a very good month, minus the UConn game.

[SaveOD238]

This isn't exactly groundbreaking. Teams that are great at both sides of the ball tend to win championships. There's also the reality that these numbers are collected after madness is over, so teams outside the 20/20 club can play themselves in. Still, if you're looking to fill out your bracket, picking a 20/20 club member to win it is usually a safe bet.

I think there's some sort of rule as well that the teams that win are at least in the top 40 of each before Madness begins?  If a top 40 Def team plays their way to a national title, they would likely raise themselves to top 20 after winning six games.  I don't remember the exact cutoff #.