UCONN Attacking Strategies

[CTWarrior]

MU is a serious NC contender that can beat anyone am I just not in the camp that this game is do or die. Imo, that is an amazing place for the program to be in.

This game is do-or-die if we want to win the Big East regular season championship.  Lose it and are chances are nil.

Sadly, I'm with Tower on this one.  I think we have more like a 5-10% chance than a 30% chance to win this game.  Something unusual is going to have to happen for us to win.  On the bright side, I think we have about the same chance to beat them that Butler had to beat us in Milwaukee, so it could happen.

[Elonsmusk]

This game is do-or-die if we want to win the Big East regular season championship.  Lose it and are chances are nil.

Sadly, I'm with Tower on this one.  I think we have more like a 5-10% chance than a 30% chance to win this game.  Something unusual is going to have to happen for us to win.  On the bright side, I think we have about the same chance to beat them that Butler had to beat us in Milwaukee, so it could happen.

Home court definitely is valuable in all of college basketball, and by virtue of that alone UCONN should win.  However, I think we are going to win this game.  I'm not sold UCONN is a better team this year than they were last year, and I think we are now a better team than we were last year.  I also feel we can create more matchup problems for UCONN, than they can us.

Gold's ability to shoot the 3 caused Clingnan/UCONN a lot of problems last year, and we may see less of Gold/Oso together.  In fact this may be a rare game where Oso's minutes aren't maxed, and he plays 25-30 and can play at peak intensity.

Kolek is peaking at the right time, and I loved seeing him shoot more 6-10 floaters in the lane against Butler, as I think that will be a better strategy against UCONN versus trying to get all the way to the hoop.

[Goose]

CTWarrior

How did you get to a 5-10% chance of winning? I thought my 30% was pretty well thought out. To take my 30% reasoning out a bit further, I think if MU played UConn ten times at UConn, at least three of the games would be a dogfight. In my previous post on probability, I thought MU would win a dogfight 1 out of 10 times.

I will say anyone that feels MU winning would be a major upset I think they are crazy. I was talking with my son, and I said if #1 and #4 were two different teams than MU and UConn, I would say the road team probably has a 30% chance of winning and it would not be a shock. I'll give UConn an edge on MU for the moment, but I think if they played a 7 game series on a neutral court, that series goes seven games. Now, I might have a different opinion late Saturday afternoon and I will admit if I am more bullish or bearish after the game.

[MUbiz]

UConn has a 77% chance of winning according to bart torvik.

[TallTitan34]

And 74% per KenPom.

But Butler had a 13.8% chance to beat us in Milwaukee.

[Uncle Rico]

69% chance I get high for the game

[StillAWarrior]

However, I think we are going to win this game.

I do too.

[TallTitan34]

69% chance I get high for the game

Nice.

[Newsdreams]

I think we win if we score more points.

On today's radio show Shaka said this is not the way.....

[CTWarrior]

CTWarrior

How did you get to a 5-10% chance of winning? I thought my 30% was pretty well thought out. To take my 30% reasoning out a bit further, I think if MU played UConn ten times at UConn, at least three of the games would be a dogfight. In my previous post on probability, I thought MU would win a dogfight 1 out of 10 times.

I will say anyone that feels MU winning would be a major upset I think they are crazy. I was talking with my son, and I said if #1 and #4 were two different teams than MU and UConn, I would say the road team probably has a 30% chance of winning and it would not be a shock. I'll give UConn an edge on MU for the moment, but I think if they played a 7 game series on a neutral court, that series goes seven games. Now, I might have a different opinion late Saturday afternoon and I will admit if I am more bullish or bearish after the game.

They are going to be the best defensive team we face, they'll be at home, they have a guy we can't stop in Clingan and they're going to get a friendly whistle.  They are going to be very primed to beat us as revenge for last year and to put away the Big East regular season.  They are big and athletic which means they're going to kill us on the boards.  Just feels like the stars are aligned against us for this game.  Unless something crazy happens, like they can't hit a 3 or we turn them over 25 times or we shoot 60% from 3, I don't see us winning this one on the road.  I will be hoping like crazy I am wrong and would be very happy to eat crow if I am.

[real chili 83]

Have we ever beat a #1 team on their home court?

The last #1 we took down was Nova?

[JakeBarnes]

Have we ever beat a #1 team on their home court?

The last #1 we took down was Nova?

Kansas. Neutral.

[tower912]

It would be fun to see 500 MU fans doing a court storm, chanting 'We are...Marquette'

See to it, 644.

[real chili 83]

Kansas. Neutral.

Thanks for letting me off easy on that one.

[real chili 83]

On today's radio show Shaka said this is not the way.....

It's been proven to be effective at least 6 out of 10 times. 

[mug644]

It would be fun to see 500 MU fans doing a court storm, chanting 'We are...Marquette'

See to it, 644.

We've already joked about trying to storm the floor. We might be able to get to the floor, but then I doubt we'll be able to get to the door. Let's hope we're in a position to try!!

[Daniel]

UConn has a 77% chance of winning according to bart torvik.

"So, you're telling me there's a chance!"

[GoldenEagles03]

"So, you're telling me there's a chance!"

77 is a good number for Marquette.

[MU82]

We don't need any special strategies to win this game. If we just play the best version of our game for a big chunk of the game, we have a good chance to win.

UConn has to defend us and score against us, too. When we're playing well, we're a tough matchup for anybody.

[Goose]

82

If they avoid a 3+ minute stretch of bad basketball they will have a chance to win it. The closer we get to the game, the better I am feeling about pulling out a win.

[warriorfred]

At this point in the season, if Gold hits four (4) 3-pointers, and Mitchell chips in 10 points, Marquette is a lock.  If they combine for 15 points, Marquette should win.  If they combine for 20+ points, the sky is the limit for Marquette.

[MU82]

82

If they avoid a 3+ minute stretch of bad basketball they will have a chance to win it. The closer we get to the game, the better I am feeling about pulling out a win.

Me too.

It's a great challenge, and that's good. Getting where Shaka and his team want to get isn't supposed to be easy.

[Newsdreams]

It's been proven to be effective at least 6 out of 10 times.

In shaka I trust

[MuggsyB]

82

If they avoid a 3+ minute stretch of bad basketball they will have a chance to win it. The closer we get to the game, the better I am feeling about pulling out a win.

Goose,

We must be in full attack mode for 40 mins and get out of the gates quickly.  The start of the game is critical imo.  You know they're going to take a big swing.  Stay poised, disciplined, take high percentage shots, get those long rebounds, and play with total confidence. 

[Goose]

Muggsy

They cannot afford to miss a ton short range shots, especially early in the game. I fully expect Oso to take it hard to the basket today and close out some of the bunnies he missed on Tuesday. I think the Oso and Ben combo lead the team today and keep them in it until the end.