Mortgage Rates????

[SoCalEagle]

Mr. Buffett is now buying homebuilders.  Lennar, D.R. Horton, and NVR have all been added to his portfolio over the past week or so.  Maybe he knows there is no interest rate or housing crisis, but an opportunity to invest in America (simple supply and demand - not enough homes, then more will built). 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

3.0% in 2020. Got incredibly lucky.

[SoCalEagle]

3.0% in 2020. Got incredibly lucky.

30 year?

[tower912]

When the boomers who are also snowbirds start dying in bulk, the housing market will make a dramatic shift.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

We bought our house in 1990 with $180,000 mortgage at 11.25% 7/23 ARM.

Refinanced 2 x in the 90's, again in 2005 including a construction loan for an addition that cost more than the original house (ughh), and last time in 2011.

Paid off in 2014.  Still live in the house.

These things go in cycles- we've been with extremely low rates for so long that the youngsters have no memory of anything else.  When my parents had to move for my dad's job in 1979, their rate was over 12%- and rates increased over the next few years.  Hell, my law school student loan rate was 12% in the late 80's.

And we are aggressive on the property tax appeals, which has worked. Just got another reduction, this time on my own without hiring one of Madigan's tax appeal lawyer Cronies.

Also, was was talking to one of my junior partners earlier this week - she lives in Kenilworth, maybe the highest property tax rate in IL (no commercial district, and funds its own elementary school district with a population of only 2,450):  she's paying $60,000 (bought house for $1.6 million on 2020). More than 4x what we pay - granted, her house is worth more than 2 x ours - but $60,000!  JFC.

Those homes are taxed at the same rate as cannabis.

[MuggsyB]

Great questions.  I have not been to HH, but my friends have, and the consensus is that while it is good... it is overrated and pricey.  They like to push their martinis.

I have not been to Fairchild, but have heard great things, and of course they're a James Beard winner.

As is Ahan... which I have not been to, but have heard really great things.  Also a James Beard winner.

Personally, I am a big fan of Heritage Tavern and Mint Mark.  Both are great options, with MM being away from the square on the near East side. 

If you're interested in a cocktail check out the Robin Room on Johnson St before dinner.  Alternatively, you can head over to Prost! for a couple of German beers and a homemade pretzel.    If neither of those are of interest, and the weather is cooperating, there is a nice beer garden at Olbrich Park.  It is dog friendly, next to the water, and very social.

If absolutely none of these interest you, Pig in a Fur Coat never disappoints.

I've heard great things about Mint Mark.  I know Chef Itaru a little bit and he's such a good dude.  I really hope Fairchild has some staying power.  I did have an excellent brunch at Heritage years ago and if I go to Maddy I will be across the street.....hmmmmm.  Ahan I'm not familiar with at all.  Is that over on Willy?  I used to like that little Indonesian joint across from Sardine.  What's the cocktail bar next to Pig in a Fur Coat or Grandpa's? 

[lurch91]

When the boomers who are also snowbirds start dying in bulk, the housing market will make a dramatic shift.

To buy my winter home now, or later, that is the question.

[tower912]

Where you are now, they barely have winter as it is.

[Hards Alumni]

When the boomers who are also snowbirds start dying in bulk, the housing market will make a dramatic shift.

Yeah but they already are.  The problem is that there are lot of millenials who have had to postpone buying houses for years... and now Gen Zers are also in the market increasing demand significantly.  Link that demand to a lack of new builds, and boomers living in their homes for longer with in home health care workers and general longer lives (well at least the wealthy... who are by and large homeowners.), and now prices are sky high... even for 'starter' homes.  Now, add into all of that investors buying up property to use as permanent rental homes... we may be approaching the end of what most Americans consider home ownership in the next decade or two.

I don't know what the solution can be except more density in urban areas, coupled with better public transit.  Not everyone needs or wants to live in the suburbs, but if the only place that is affordable is a 45 min drive from the city the US is going to have to keep expanding the roads... which increases traffic.  There isn't a lot of big cities in the US anymore that have a suburban area that isn't developed.  So where do we put the new homes that need to be built?

[Hards Alumni]

I've heard great things about Mint Mark.  I know Chef Itaru a little bit and he's such a good dude.  I really hope Fairchild has some staying power.  I did have an excellent brunch at Heritage years ago and if I go to Maddy I will be across the street.....hmmmmm.  Ahan I'm not familiar with at all.  Is that over on Willy?  I used to like that little Indonesian joint across from Sardine.  What's the cocktail bar next to Pig in a Fur Coat or Grandpa's?

Ahan is on Winnebago, but is planning to move to a larger location... the old El Dorado Grill location on the West end of Willy st.

You're probably thinking of Bandung for the Indonesian place... and I can second that it is amazing.  Smallish portions, but still great food.

The cocktail bar is Gib's.  It looks like a home from the outside.  Never been.  Supposed to be inventive.

One last recommendation if you are a bread lover or a croissant lover... or sweets ... Batch bakehouse on Willy St.  Right near Gibs.  And if I'm mentioning bread I'm going to mention Madison Sourdough.

[MuggsyB]

Ahan is on Winnebago, but is planning to move to a larger location... the old El Dorado Grill location on the West end of Willy st.

You're probably thinking of Bandung for the Indonesian place... and I can second that it is amazing.  Smallish portions, but still great food.

The cocktail bar is Gib's.  It looks like a home from the outside.  Never been.  Supposed to be inventive.

One last recommendation if you are a bread lover or a croissant lover... or sweets ... Batch bakehouse on Willy St.  Right near Gibs.  And if I'm mentioning bread I'm going to mention Madison Sourdough.

Ya....Gibs.  They used to be good at least when they opened 7-8 yrs ago.  Bandung was great.  They made me a special BBQ duck dish but I don't think they have it anymore. 

I'll keep Batch in mind, ty.  One of my friends has been pimping Ogden's Diner for breakfast but I will go out of my way and head to Sofra in Middleton.  Thx again Hards. 

[Hards Alumni]

Ya....Gibs.  They used to be good at least when they opened 7-8 yrs ago.  Bandung was great.  They made me a special BBQ duck dish but I don't think they have it anymore. 

I'll keep Batch in mind, ty.  One of my friends has been pimping Ogden's Diner for breakfast but I will go out of my way and head to Sofra in Middleton.  Thx again Hands.

Ogdens is good.  It's small, but good.  Good to see there is a fellow duck eater out there, Mugs.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yeah but they already are.  The problem is that there are lot of millenials who have had to postpone buying houses for years... and now Gen Zers are also in the market increasing demand significantly.  Link that demand to a lack of new builds, and boomers living in their homes for longer with in home health care workers and general longer lives (well at least the wealthy... who are by and large homeowners.), and now prices are sky high... even for 'starter' homes.  Now, add into all of that investors buying up property to use as permanent rental homes... we may be approaching the end of what most Americans consider home ownership in the next decade or two.

I don't know what the solution can be except more density in urban areas, coupled with better public transit.  Not everyone needs or wants to live in the suburbs, but if the only place that is affordable is a 45 min drive from the city the US is going to have to keep expanding the roads... which increases traffic.  There isn't a lot of big cities in the US anymore that have a suburban area that isn't developed.  So where do we put the new homes that need to be built?

What about disincentivizing investors from buying single family homes as rental properties?

[dgies9156]

We bought our house in 1990 with $180,000 mortgage at 11.25% 7/23 ARM.

Refinanced 2 x in the 90's, again in 2005 including a construction loan for an addition that cost more than the original house (ughh), and last time in 2011.

Paid off in 2014.  Still live in the house.

These things go in cycles- we've been with extremely low rates for so long that the youngsters have no memory of anything else.  When my parents had to move for my dad's job in 1979, their rate was over 12%- and rates increased over the next few years.  Hell, my law school student loan rate was 12% in the late 80's.

And we are aggressive on the property tax appeals, which has worked. Just got another reduction, this time on my own without hiring one of Madigan's tax appeal lawyer Cronies.

Also, was was talking to one of my junior partners earlier this week - she lives in Kenilworth, maybe the highest property tax rate in IL (no commercial district, and funds its own elementary school district with a population of only 2,450):  she's paying $60,000 (bought house for $1.6 million on 2020). More than 4x what we pay - granted, her house is worth more than 2 x ours - but $60,000!  JFC.

Brother Lloyd:

We lived in Lake County for 28 years. The assessor got so tired my appeals that she just wished I would go away. We were 13 for 13 in our time in Libertyville. The one time when they played games, didn't give me a time until the last minute and then split the difference, I went to the Property Tax Appeal Board and won there.

One year when we won big, they played an administrative nullification game the next and jumped my assessment up by more than 15 percent. Back we went and back we won -- again!

The problem is the definition of "Fair Cash Value" under Illinois law. Assessors play all kinds of games with things like multipliers and assessor "crap" that "we treated everyone the same." Baloney. One of the reasons we won is we tore their arguments apart and used their own statistics to show they weren't following the law.

Oh, and we did it all ourselves.

Florida will be much harder. Our property assessor is highly competent and our valuation is on the nose. If you disagree with them, they invite you to come in and talk and they'll work with you. It's ahrd to argue with someone who is right and knows their stuff!

[MuggsyB]

Ogdens is good.  It's small, but good.  Good to see there is a fellow duck eater out there, Mugs.

They aren't endangered but I do feel somewhat bad about it.

[tower912]

Good to see there is a fellow duck eater out there, Mugs.

Teal implied?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Hards:

What's the best restaurant in Madison now?

Fairchild?  I may have to go there the 2nd week of Sept. 

How's Harvey House?

Muggs, would love to grab a beer with you when you are in town.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

30 year?

Yessir, will never be able to refinance or move for that matter for a long time, but I like my place so I'm happy it worked out the way it did.

[Jay Bee]

Yessir, will never be able to refinance or move for that matter for a long time, but I like my place so I'm happy it worked out the way it did.

How are those "tiny houses" anyway??

[JWags85]

What about disincentivizing investors from buying single family homes as rental properties?

Such as?  Not snarkily challenging, but genuinely curious.  I'm usually against non-competitive restrictions, but can absolutely see how its become and will continue to be a properly. 

And more importantly, I'm all for anything that can curb all stupid ass real estate influencers that clog my IG and Twitter feed acting like investing in SFH's is fool proof free money and easy with the BRRR method.  And how buying a home to live in is foolish cause you should be using that money to get still MORE properties invest in and rent out.

[Scoop Snoop]

Anyone else amused that Muggsy has derailed his own thread with multiple exchanges with Hards?

No more discussion about mortgage rates please. Just dining options in Madison.

[tower912]

Here's something to freak out about, muggsy.  Adequate housing in CA and Fla, buy no affordable insurance.

[MU82]

What about disincentivizing investors from buying single family homes as rental properties?

There has been talk of that here in the Charlotte area, which had been one of the hot spots for investors. Not sure where that stands on political level, but many HOAs in single-family subdivisions were starting to make rules against renting - which of course disincentivizes buyers.

However, I just read an article the other day that higher prices, combined with higher mortgage rates is serving as a deterrent without any rules being necessary. Some of the corporations that had been doing the most buying here have even become net sellers.

[MuggsyB]

Muggs, would love to grab a beer with you when you are in town.

Ziggy,.

Are you in Madison or Milwaukee?

[4everwarriors]

Beer summit, aina?