2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I raised this briefly in January and I think it's time to do it again

I enjoy following the buildup to Selection Sunday as much as anyone, and hope for MU to get the highest spot possible on the seed list.

But, I think it's a good idea not to get too worked up about the difference of one or two spots on the seed list. Those minimal difference have virtually no impact on the prospects for the team advancing in the tournament. Matchups and how other games play out have a much bigger impact, not to mention how the team plays.

I agree that we shouldn't get worked up,  this is supposed to be fun after all.

But I think 1 or 2 spots can make big difference if it's the difference between a 1 and a 2 seed

[wisblue]

I agree that we shouldn't get worked up,  this is supposed to be fun after all.

But I think 1 or 2 spots can make big difference if it's the difference between a 1 and a 2 seed

I still don't think there's a significant difference between number 4 on the seed list vs #5 on the seed list, especially now that parity makes it unpredictable who a team will face in later rounds, even after the bracket is set.

[HowardsWorld]

I think that everyone on this board just wants the recognition that comes with the 1 seed rather than it being an "easier path" to the final four. Look at last years tournament. No #1 even made the elite 8. The tournament has always been about match ups. Once Arkansas took out Kansas we all knew Uconn was winning it all. Being the number 4 1 seed doesn't mean you have an easier path than being the number 1 2 seed. Seeding wise yes but there has never been chalk before.

[wisblue]

I think that everyone on this board just wants the recognition that comes with the 1 seed rather than it being an "easier path" to the final four. Look at last years tournament. No #1 even made the elite 8. The tournament has always been about match ups. Once Arkansas took out Kansas we all knew Uconn was winning it all. Being the number 4 1 seed doesn't mean you have an easier path than being the number 1 2 seed. Seeding wise yes but there has never been chalk before.

I agree with you, but I don't think everyone does.

[1SE]

It would.be interesting to see the break down in 5 v 4 S curve results historically - probably not enough sample but that's the discontinuity for sure.

And of course, in any given year any given 2 seed might have an easier path than any given 1 seed. But on average, over the years, 1 seeds have outperformed 2 seeds massively.

Anyway, I just love that were arguing over if we're the 4 or 5 on the curve. What a change of pace from arguments about if making the tourney 3 years out of 5 was enough evidence of an upward trajectory. Let's keep doing this.

[romey]

This is just objectively false. It's a little bit chicken or the egg, but #1 seeds do much better on average than #2 seeds, and #2 seeds do much better than #3 seeds.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/

8 seeds have made it to the championship game more times (4) than the 4,5, 6 or 7 seeds!

[brewcity77]

I still don't think there's a significant difference between number 4 on the seed list vs #5 on the seed list, especially now that parity makes it unpredictable who a team will face in later rounds, even after the bracket is set.

I think the path matters. 8/9 vs 7/10 might not matter much, but the second weekend 4/5 vs 3/6 does. And there's a better chance of one of those 12/13 seeds sneaking through to make an easier Elite 8 path. It also increases the odds someone other than the favored seed gets through the bottom half of the bracket simply because there's more time for an upset. 1's get through more often because the path is paved smoother. And we've never been a 1, and I love seeing new accomplishments.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Last night Joe Lunardi Had Marquette at 5 on his S Curve 2 Seed tonight Marquette is 6 on his S Curve Corresponding Pod 2 Seed

[wisblue]

I think the path matters. 8/9 vs 7/10 might not matter much, but the second weekend 4/5 vs 3/6 does. And there's a better chance of one of those 12/13 seeds sneaking through to make an easier Elite 8 path. It also increases the odds someone other than the favored seed gets through the bottom half of the bracket simply because there's more time for an upset. 1's get through more often because the path is paved smoother. And we've never been a 1, and I love seeing new accomplishments.

The relevant comparison I'm getting at is not 1 seed line  vs 2 seed line, but overall 4 seed vs overall 5 seed.

I would expect the overall 1 seeds to have a better record over the years than the overall 8 seeds more because they are demonstrably and proven better teams, not because they have a smoother path. I would also expect the overall 1 seeds to have a better record over the years than the overall 4 seeds because not all teams on the 1 seed line are created equal.

I also think that statistics that look at overall performances of seed lines  over the years have lost some of their significance because there is much more parity in the field now than there was when seeding started 40 some years ago.

You made the statement that "1's get through more often because the path is smoother".

I am throwing out the proposition that "1's get through more often because they are better teams".

The truth might be a combination of the 2, but I think the "better team" is a much bigger factor than the "smoother path".

[gmhfordham1015]

Last night Joe Lunardi Had Marquette at 5 on his S Curve 2 Seed tonight Marquette is 6 on his S Curve Corresponding Pod 2 Seed

[IL Warrior]

On Thursday he had #5 Marquette, #7 North Carolina, #8 Tennessee, and #8Kansas (yes, two #8s), #9 Iowa State.

22.5 hours later, he had #5 Tennessee, #6 Marquette, #7 North Carolina, #8 Iowa State, #9 Kansas.

None of those teams played in that time, but he felt the need to move...
Marquette down 1 spot
Tennessee up 3 spots
Kansas down 1 spot
Iowa State up 1 spot

What a moron.

[The Sultan]

Y'all realize it's just about the clicks right?

[IL Warrior]

Y'all realize it's just about the clicks right?

That's kinda my point. Lunardi moves teams around just for the sake of putting out a new bracket, even if nothing supports the changes. Unfortunately that is how media works in today's world. Facts and reason fall way behind just getting something out to drive traffic. Facts, proofreading, well-reasoned analysis - all unnecessary distractions that slow the pace of content generation.

[Uncle Rico]

Y'all realize it's just about the clicks right?

And does it work

[Cream Biggums]

Tournament committee will be releasing their top 16 seeds in 30 minutes on CBS. I would think we are the top 2 seed right now if not the last 1 seed

[TallTitan34]

Committee chair said Arizona is firmly in as the last one seed. Wasn't close with the fifth seed. Everyone had Arizona.

[MuggsyB]

Get rid of the entire 12 member committee.  All 12 members picked Zona #4????  What a bunch of excrement.

Time to step it up, win today, keep the mojo going, and usurp a #1 seed. 

[goldeneagle91114]

Tournament committee will be releasing their top 16 seeds in 30 minutes on CBS. I would think we are the top 2 seed right now if not the last 1 seed

Wow all twelve on the committee agree on the top 4, and in order. Maybe a lot harder to crack the one seed than we thought

[MuggsyB]

Wow all twelve on the committee agree on the top 4, and in order. Maybe a lot harder to crack the one seed than we thought

Bunch of nonsense.  Based on the location. 

[Galway Eagle]

7 wow didn't expect that.

[MuggsyB]

#7????  #7?????  Are you freaking kidding me????  Inexcusable. 

[CountryRoads]

7? Committee just completely ignoring game results.

[MuggsyB]

UNC #5????  Oh.....okay. 

[Cream Biggums]

We get no respect

[tower912]

Breathe.