2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

[The Sultan]

I seem to remember that the 1st round 5/12 games are historically 50/50 either way.

Nope. 5 seeds win about 65% of the time.

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

Outside of the 8/9 match-up, this shows that the committee in general does a good job with seeding.

[brewcity77]

I seem to remember that the 1st round 5/12 games are historically 50/50 either way.

It's actually not that high, about 2/3 of the time the 5 wins (67.4%).

This link usually stays updated and shows all the seed vs seed results historically: https://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

[PGsHeroes32]

Meh..people thought Vermont would beat us.

Truth is we all know the best way to slow us down.

There is the chance we run into a high major 12 with size and D to limit us at the rim. But thats a small chance and even then the team wouldnt be that skilled.

Far greater chance that assuming we get a top 5 seed. That our first round opponent is one that will have no chance to stop the Nova style lay up line we generate.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Meh..people thought Vermont would beat us.

Truth is we all know the best way to slow us down.

There is the chance we run into a high major 12 with size and D to limit us at the rim. But thats a small chance and even then the team wouldnt be that skilled.

Far greater chance that assuming we get a top 5 seed. That our first round opponent is one that will have no chance to stop the Nova style lay up line we generate.

2 beats a 7 about 70% of the time.  Yikes

[StillAWarrior]

I think 5 is vastly different than the 4 options above it.

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

Based on the link provided by Sultan, the 5 is a pretty significant drop off.

1 - 99.3
2 - 93.2 <-6.1>
3 - 85.1 <-8.1>
4 - 79.1 <-6.0>
5 - 64.2 <-14.9>
6 - 61.5 <-2.7>
7 - 60.8 <-0.7>
8 - 48.6 <-12.2>
9 - 51.4 <+2.8>


It's the largest percentage decrease that you see from a drop of a single seed line.

[Newsdreams]

Any team we get just go medieval and show them to darkness, simple

[MarquetteMike1977]

ESPN Bracketology Updated Friday January 26th by Joe Lunardi. Marquette is listed as a 3 Seed playing 14 Seed High Point in Pittsburgh. With the winner playing the winner of 6 Seed Colorado St and 11 Seed Princeton In the South Dallas Region

[Mu8891]

Mike 77 ... I would take that ^ draw..

But would much rather be in Indy

[Viper]

Mike 77 ... I would take that ^ draw..

But would much rather be in Indy

indy will be reserved for the Big Ten champion Wisconsin Badgers.

[Pepe Sylvia]

Omaha works for me too.

[tower912]

Omaha works for me too.

And for Peyton Manning.

[Galway Eagle]

Memphis Omaha Indy are all doable, heck even Pittsburgh wouldn't be horrible. I want us to get set up so we're in Detroit the second weekend.

[HowardsWorld]

Memphis Omaha Indy are all doable, heck even Pittsburgh wouldn't be horrible. I want us to get set up so we're in Detroit the second weekend.

Hope it's not at ford field again. One of the absolute worst viewing experiences I have ever had. Went there in 2008 to see Davidson and had lower level tickets and couldn't even hear the ball bounce.

[Scoop Snoop]

Hope it's not at ford field again. One of the absolute worst viewing experiences I have ever had. Went there in 2008 to see Davidson and had lower level tickets and couldn't even hear the ball bounce.

I bet you could hear the Davidson fans when they lost what they thought they just won. 

[Galway Eagle]

I bet you could hear the Davidson fans when they lost what they thought they just won. 

He was able to hear Davidson fans 5yrs in the future? He said 08, the MU game was 13

[Scoop Snoop]

He was able to hear Davidson fans 5yrs in the future? He said 08, the MU game was 13

Ok, OK, So I was off a little in my timing.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Omaha works for me too.

I hear it's somewhere in middle America.

[tower912]

Just get to the heart of the matter.

[StillAWarrior]

Pittsburgh would be ideal for me.

[MU82]

While Madison is a lock to win the national title, I just hope we make the tourney.

[brewcity77]

Memphis Omaha Indy are all doable, heck even Pittsburgh wouldn't be horrible. I want us to get set up so we're in Detroit the second weekend.

That virtually locks us into Purdue's region. What I find interesting about that is no matter what I do, it ends up being a Maui repeat. I end up with three of Purdue, Tennessee, Marquette, and Kansas landing there. Yesterday, I finally thought I'd have Dayton in there, but Kansas couldn't go to the same region as Houston which sent them to Detroit. The final four Maui teams just feel linked.

[Dr. Blackheart]

That virtually locks us into Purdue's region. What I find interesting about that is no matter what I do, it ends up being a Maui repeat. I end up with three of Purdue, Tennessee, Marquette, and Kansas landing there. Yesterday, I finally thought I'd have Dayton in there, but Kansas couldn't go to the same region as Houston which sent them to Detroit. The final four Maui teams just feel linked.

Incredible tournament. Still am shocked UCLA hasn't put their pieces together.

[brewcity77]

Incredible tournament. Still am shocked UCLA hasn't put their pieces together.

It's really a case of diametric opposites. The four teams that won the first round are all trending toward the top 2 seed lines, the teams that lost are all looking like they'll need to win autobids to get in. Not only that, but Syracuse is the one that is probably closest of the teams on the outside from that tournament. I didn't have Gonzaga and UCLA out of the field on my preseason bingo card, that's for sure.

[MU82]

That virtually locks us into Purdue's region.

If we have to face Purdue in a showdown to get to the Final Four, I'll happily live with that.

1. It means we've already had 3 tourney wins, the last 2 likely against outstanding teams. I'll definitely want more, but really everything else is gravy.

2. We absolutely can beat Purdue. Played like crud against them for an entire half, and they got a 75-foot buzzer beater, and Oso was in foul trouble ... and we still made it a 1-possession game.

3. Purdue could go out before we'd meet them. If their guards have poor shooting games, which happens to all teams - and has happened to them - they could lose to anyone. As we saw last year, that means absolutely anyone!

So whatevs. Bring 'em on.

[DoctorV]

I wouldn't love being in a region with Purdue, Tennessee, and/or Purdue.

Painter and Barnes sort of feel like they are due, with their teams constantly good of late and just knocking on the door for ultimate March madness success.

That's also the #1 KenPom offense (and #11D) in Purdue and #2 Defense (top 20 O) in Tennessee.

Marquette can hang with and beat anyone, sure, but I'd rather not have to get through BOTH Tennessee and Purdue/Kansas (Maui revenge factor) to get to the FF.

I really prefer Detroit for travel/proximity purposes and I have a MUbb fan buddy that lives there so I'd get to go to the games, but I don't love that draw.

Makes me wonder if it would be best that Marquette doesn't get that site if Purdue and Tennessee end up locked there because of proximity