Most Important Things to Improve On

[rgoode57]

Losing Omax is something to be dealt with, but, in college ball, all players leave in 1-4 years, so making player adjustments is just part of the game.

I think we all agree that the starting lineup this year will be Oso, Tyler, Stevie, Kam, and Joplin. I think we all also agree that Ben Gold slides into the Joplin sixth man slot. Chase Ross will undoubtedly get more minutes this season. Somehow, Sean Jones, Tre Norman, Zaide Lowery, and Al Amadou will round out the rotation. It sounds like Amadou is a bit of a project and might see only a little playing time here and there while Norman may need to play more minutes to keep the guard rotation fresh. Lowery is essentially an unknown but will hopefully develop steadily over the course of the season.  What is true is that most freshmen play like freshmen until late in the season, so they cannot be counted on for big contributions. So, leaving the three newcomers out of the discussion, what are the three or four basic improvements the team needs to make this year - either collectively or individually. I offer the following for your consideration:

1. David Joplin has to finish better at the rim and improve his handle. He has nice footwork down low but, too many times, fails to get the basket, either due to poor ball handling or simply missing an easy shot. He is a really, really good player and certainly has the potential to take on a much bigger role this year. No, he is not going to be Omax on defense, but, on the other hand,  he can do things offensively that Omax could not do. And his defense improved considerably over the course of last season.

2. Other than Kolek and Joplin, the entire team needs to improve its free throw shooting. I know there are those who believe free throws don't matter, but I am not in that camp and never will be. They don't matter when you are beating someone by twenty points. But, in close games, they matter a lot.

3. Stevie Mitchell needs to improve his three point shot. He does not need to shoot 40% from three, but he needs to shoot well enough to keep the defense honest.

4. Oso needs to have a reliable shot from fifteen feet. Certainly we all know this.

5. Shaka needs to figure out how to defend the three point line more effectively. I am not going back to look at the stats, but it seems to me there were a lot of games this past year where the opponent had season-best shooting nights against us. The defense seemed to improve late in the season, however.

6. Focus early. The pre-conference schedule is tough - Texas, Wisconsin,  ND, at Illinois, and what could be three very tough games in Maui. This team is going to be challenged hard very early. I love this pre-con schedule, and it should help us with seeding in the tournament.

Sorry for the rambling, but you have to have some MU bb to talk about in the summer.

[MU82]

Offensively, the main improvement I'm hoping for from Joplin is that he's not a ball-stopper. I'm not very worried about his ability to score; he's gonna have some games with big numbers next season. I do hope he can at least hold his own defensively most of the time because he certainly isn't gonna be able to do what O-Max did as a 1-on-1 defender or top-of-defense agitator.

Now, cue the pushback on "Oso needs to have a reliable shot from fifteen feet. Certainly we all know this" ...

(Unless that was non-teal teal. In which case, well done.)

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

2. Other than Kolek and Joplin, the entire team needs to improve its free throw shooting. I know there are those who believe free throws don't matter, but I am not in that camp and never will be. They don't matter when you are beating someone by twenty points. But, in close games, they matter a lot.

OK, I am going to explain this again.

When people say "free throws don't matter," it means that free throw percentage is not a statistically significant variable to a team's performance.

Of course its better to make free throws than not. And yes it does mean that in close games it could matter. But over the course of a season, there are other things that will be more important to team success than free throw percentage.  Just doing a quick look, I believe only 5 of the top 20 teams in free throw percentage even made the NCAA tournament.

[MUfan12]

Offensively, the main improvement I'm hoping for from Joplin is that he's not a ball-stopper. I'm not very worried about his ability to score; he's gonna have some games with big numbers next season.

Agree. He needs to be quicker, both physically and mentally when he sees a closeout. Some of those meandering drives to the hoop last year just destroyed their flow.

As for the defense, I'm not concerned unless the amount of turnovers forced takes a major dip.

[wadesworld]

Rebound better and get to the line more.  That's how we'll improve as a team.

[Jay Bee]

>>Losing Omax is something to be dealt with, but, in college ball, all players leave in 1-4 years, so making player adjustments is just part of the game.

Not all players leave in 1-4 years. Many these days are on a full five year plan thanks to the 2020-21 season; but even without that, others play more (Hi, Chris O.)

I think we all agree that the starting lineup this year will be Oso, Tyler, Stevie, Kam, and Joplin. I think we all also agree that Ben Gold slides into the Joplin sixth man slot. Chase Ross will undoubtedly get more minutes this season. Somehow, Sean Jones, Tre Norman, Zaide Lowery, and Al Amadou will round out the rotation.

I believe Tre and Zaide could meaningfully push others for minutes. Certainly Stevie, Chase, Ben if we can go ‘small’.

1. David Joplin has to finish better at the rim and improve his handle.

Would agree that Jop’s 2FG% needs to be better; based on his shot mix and % at the rim last year, I am expecting that to happen.

2. Other than Kolek and Joplin, the entire team needs to improve its free throw shooting. I know there are those who believe free throws don't matter, but I am not in that camp and never will be. They don't matter when you are beating someone by twenty points. But, in close games, they matter a lot.

Completely disagree. It’s important near the end of the game that you can have a couple/few guys out there that can handle the ball and convert FT’s at a nice clip.. but as a team their FT% doesn’t matter, but also was just fine (I think just short of 72%.. so essentially average). Not a concern at all.

3. Stevie Mitchell needs to improve his three point shot. He does not need to shoot 40% from three, but he needs to shoot well enough to keep the defense honest.

From 12/31 and on, he made 35% of his treys. That’s solid. We have guys who will take a lot of threes.. he’s not one of them and doesn’t need to be. Not high up on my chart.

4. Oso needs to have a reliable shot from fifteen feet. Certainly we all know this.

Not at all. If the defense is sagging off him an insane amount and he wants to pop a couple of these, go ahead. But, this is not something we need to rely on. If anything, I would like to see him pop off a couple of three-point attempts vs. 15 footers.

5. Shaka needs to figure out how to defend the three point line more effectively. I am not going back to look at the stats, but it seems to me there were a lot of games this past year where the opponent had season-best shooting nights against us. The defense seemed to improve late in the season, however.

History says this isn’t some ‘shaka’ issue; I think luck will help the 3FG% defense a bit and  not a huge concern, although I’d like it to be a lot lower. My larger concern is our 2FG% defense. Needs to be better. (blk% should increase, obviously)

6. Focus early. The pre-conference schedule is tough - Texas, Wisconsin,  ND, at Illinois, and what could be three very tough games in Maui. This team is going to be challenged hard very early. I love this pre-con schedule, and it should help us with seeding in the tournament.

I project us to have a worse record (and NCAA seed) than last season. I think we could be a lot better in March once we reach the crapshoot, but last seasons win-loss was crazy. People need to be ready.



 

[tower912]

This is my favorite kind of JB post.

Well said.

[Goose]

Great post, JayBee.

I agree that we will have a lower seed and have a better NCAA this upcoming season. Last year's record was one we might not see again for a long time.

[brewcity77]

OK, I am going to explain this again.

When people say "free throws don't matter," it means that free throw percentage is not a statistically significant variable to a team's performance.

Of course its better to make free throws than not. And yes it does mean that in close games it could matter. But over the course of a season, there are other things that will be more important to team success than free throw percentage.  Just doing a quick look, I believe only 5 of the top 20 teams in free throw percentage even made the NCAA tournament.

Last year, Marquette took 16.3 free throws per game and made them at a 71.8% clip, good enough for 180th nationally. That's 11.7 points per game.

So what would we consider to be an improvement? Let's say +2 percentage points to 74.8%, which would rank 65th, a 100+ spot improvement. In terms of points, at the same free throw rate, we would get 12.3 points from the line.

That said, we took 25.3 threes per game at a 35.3% clip. That's 26.8 points per game from the arc. Increase that by 3 percentage points to 38.3% at the same rate and you increase scoring to 29.1 ppg. 2.3 points per game feels a lot more important. That's why free throw percentage doesn't matter. Because other factors are way more important.

[tower912]

'Bad' team free throw % equals (for rounding and simplicity purposes) 1.3 ppp.

'Good' team free throw % equals 1.5 ppp.

Both are elite offense.

Yes, it helps a lot to make late game free throws.

[rgoode57]

No doubt the team will take more losses this season. The pre-con schedule is tough and the BE itself will be a significantly harder league this year with significant improvement from Villanova, GT,  and  STJ and with Seton Hall and Prov still being competitive. 29 wins is not in the cards this year even though the team itself may be better. It should all work itself out with a very solid tournament seed (though not a 2) and a solid tournament showing.

[MU82]

The good news is that if next season's team has a relatively poor W/L record early, Scoop will collectively react calmly and patiently.

[SaveOD238]

I think we all agree that the starting lineup this year will be Oso, Tyler, Stevie, Kam, and Joplin. I think we all also agree that Ben Gold slides into the Joplin sixth man slot. Chase Ross will undoubtedly get more minutes this season.

I'm not certain this is true.  I think it's entirely possible we see Kolek, Kam, Stevie, Chase, Oso starting lineups as well as Kolek, Kam, Stevie, Ben, Oso lineups.  Joplin thrived as a sixth man, and he may be best suited there.

If there's a starter from last year who loses their spot it will be Stevie, not because he would be worse, but because he can function so well as energy off the bench.  But that would probably require Chase and/or Tre to force their way into the starting lineup through significant improvement in play.

[SonOfWarrior]

Rebound better and get to the line more.  That's how we'll improve as a team.

REBOUNDING is key here.

[Uncle Rico]

I think they need to rebound less

[tower912]

I think they need to rebound less

I like more iso-ball.

[brewcity77]

No doubt the team will take more losses this season.

I don't think this is a foregone conclusion.

The pre-con schedule is tough and the BE itself will be a significantly harder league this year with significant improvement from Villanova, GT,  and  STJ and with Seton Hall and Prov still being competitive. 29 wins is not in the cards this year even though the team itself may be better. It should all work itself out with a very solid tournament seed (though not a 2) and a solid tournament showing.

I definitely don't think the bolded is certain either.

[rgoode57]

I am surprised that anyone would think 'Nova, GT, and StJ are not going to be noticeably better this year.  I am certainly not a Pitino fan and am disappointed that StJ hired him, but, I have to admit, the guy can recruit and he can coach. And, his teams will always play really hard. Except for their big guy, I think he has assembled a completely new roster.  Just trading out Patrick Ewing for Ed Cooley automatically makes GT a better team without even considering the players putting on the uniform. And Neptune has been very busy in the transfer portal, though I cannot recite the specifics at the moment. All three of them will be better for sure. The top of the BE this year will again be MU, UConn, Creighton, and X (not necessarily in that order), but no one is going to win 17 conference games this year.

[milwaukee ex-pat]

I project us to have a worse record (and NCAA seed) than last season. I think we could be a lot better in March once we reach the crapshoot, but last seasons win-loss was crazy. People need to be ready.

I think our seed will be the same or better.  The way I see it we can win the Big East and in fact should be favorites.  That's a 2 seed at the worst and probably a 1 seed.  I could see the record being worse but there is a decent chance I think we are ranked in the top 5 all year.  We have the most continuity coming back vs all of our early opponents - and that's serious continuity as in 2 complete years in the same elite system together. We could be heads above everyone pre-conference season..  I think we may lose more during the Big East a la UCONN last year so may not get to 28 wins by NCAA tourney time but still should end up 1st or tied for 1st in the BE.  Just my 2 cents..

[Jockey]

REBOUNDING is key here.

I disagree. As frustrating as it is, I don’t think Shaka’s style is conducive to big rebound numbers.

I do think we will be slightly better than last year, though.

[Jockey]

4. Oso needs to have a reliable shot from fifteen feet. Certainly we all know this.

I don’t think he ‘needs’ to, but I think he will surprise us.

Last off-season I said I expected Oso to be more involved in initiating the offense. I don’t think even one person agreed with me here.

This year, I expect him to extend his game out to the 12’ -17’ range.

[Jay Bee]

I think our seed will be the same or better.  The way I see it we can win the Big East and in fact should be favorites.  That's a 2 seed at the worst and probably a 1 seed.  I could see the record being worse but there is a decent chance I think we are ranked in the top 5 all year.

In the last five seasons… number of BEast teams receiving (or projected to in the case of the canceled tourney) a 1 seed: zero

Also, continuity is great… but would note our Wtg avg exp by class year will likely be in the ~lower third of the conference.

[real chili 83]

If we could score more points than the other guys….watch out.

[withoutbias]

I don’t think he ‘needs’ to, but I think he will surprise us.

Last off-season I said I expected Oso to be more involved in initiating the offense. I don’t think even one person agreed with me here.

This year, I expect him to extend his game out to the 12’ -17’ range.

Shaka literally told everyone this every time he had a press conference.

[jfp61]

4. Oso needs to have a reliable shot from fifteen feet. Certainly we all know this.

Oso shot the highest percentage on the team last year from 15+ feet and beneath the 3 point line. He shot 50%. He took the second most of these attempts on the team from this range with a grand total of 8. Joplin took 15 attempts.

Kam Jones, Omax, and Ben Gold did not take a single shot from that range.

15+ feet is an objectivly bad shot. That should virtually never be taken unless the shot clock is at 1 second.