[Cracked Sidewalks] Top-16 Reset

[brewcity77]

Among bracketology Twitter, there was a lot of confusion to the ordering we saw on Saturday. It was almost as if the games of the past week didn't matter. But when you consider Matt Norlander's comments after talking to the Selection Committee chairman maybe those games really didn't matter to the Selection Committee. We break down the reveal and why we think the results from Monday-Thursday this past week didn't factor into the Committee's ordering this past Saturday.

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2023/02/top-16-reset.html

[tower912]

Great stuff, Alan.

Wisconsin beating MU is keeping them in the field.   Ouch.

Road wins over tourney teams carry a lot of weight.

[fjm]

Well done. Appreciate the explanation Brew

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Great stuff, Alan.

Wisconsin beating MU is keeping them in the field.   Ouch.

Road wins over tourney teams carry a lot of weight.

That and a lot of other bubble teams are losing.  Wisconsin and Penn St both have opportunities to play their way in, while a lot of other teams don't have any at large hopes remaining.  But they each need 3 wins to really solidify their NCAA bids, and 2-2 leaves things very dicey.

Then you have potential bid thieves.  Can Nevada or Utah St win the Mountain West?  A Pac 12 or AAC surprise?  Does Florida Atlantic get an at large if they fail to win their conference tournament?  A lot of basketball yet to be played.

[goldeneagle91114]

If IA State loses tonight (@Texas), they would have 10 losses. Is there really anyway a 10 loss team would earn a 3 seed?

[Newsdreams]

If IA State loses tonight (@Texas), they would have 10 losses. Is there really anyway a 10 loss team would earn a 3 seed?

Can't look at it that way, it depends what other teams below do.

[IL Warrior]

If IA State loses tonight (@Texas), they would have 10 losses. Is there really anyway a 10 loss team would earn a 3 seed?

Unusual, but not unprecedented. Especially unlikely if they lose @ Texas, @ Baylor, and in the Big 12 tournament, bringing them to 12 losses.

Here's the last 10 tournaments:
YEAR   10+ LOSS PROTECTED SEEDS
2022   none (best = 6 seed)
2021   none (best = 6 seed)
2019   none (best = 5 seed)
2018   North Carolina (2 seed, 25-10)
2017   none (best = 5 seed)
2016   California (4 seed, 23-10), Duke (4 seed, 23-10), Iowa State (4 seed, 21-11)
2015   Oklahoma (3 seed, 22-10), North Carolina (4 seed, 24-11), Georgetown (4 seed, 21-10)
2014   none (best = 6 seed)
2013   none (best = 5 seed)
2012   none (best = 5 seed)

[HowardsWorld]

Unusual, but not unprecedented. Especially unlikely if they lose @ Texas, @ Baylor, and in the Big 12 tournament, bringing them to 12 losses.

Here's the last 10 tournaments:
YEAR   10+ LOSS PROTECTED SEEDS
2022   none (best = 6 seed)
2021   none (best = 6 seed)
2019   none (best = 5 seed)
2018   North Carolina (2 seed, 25-10)
2017   none (best = 5 seed)
2016   California (4 seed, 23-10), Duke (4 seed, 23-10), Iowa State (4 seed, 21-11)
2015   Oklahoma (3 seed, 22-10), North Carolina (4 seed, 24-11), Georgetown (4 seed, 21-10)
2014   none (best = 6 seed)
2013   none (best = 5 seed)
2012   none (best = 5 seed)

Im sorry but if you finish with 10-12 losses I dont care if you are playing NBA teams you dont deserve a top 4 seed. Basically thats saying as long as you play top 10 teams you dont need to win any of them

[Sturgeon General Warrior]

Excellent write-up, thanks for sharing.

What strikes me as odd about the focus by the committee on big road wins (at least within the context of conference play) is that it seems to ignore the flip side: avoiding home losses against really good teams. For example, MU and Creighton have a decent chance end up 16-4 in BE play, undefeated at home with their only losses away to the other four best teams. So you get no good road wins, which looks bad to the committee, but don't get anything for not losing at home. What if they still went 16-4, but flip the road losses to wins and home wins against the top four to losses? Does their resume suddenly look better despite there being no real change to their underlying metrics? Seems like winning on the road to a good team is more helpful than losing at home to a good team is harmful (see the B12, where the top teams all have at least one home conference loss).

[The Sultan]

Im sorry but if you finish with 10-12 losses I dont care if you are playing NBA teams you dont deserve a top 4 seed. Basically thats saying as long as you play top 10 teams you dont need to win any of them

If their schedule is tough enough, of course they could be a top four seed. Let's not place random rules on the tournament without context.

[Newsdreams]

So many people confused, Scoop I guess...

[brewcity77]

Excellent write-up, thanks for sharing.

What strikes me as odd about the focus by the committee on big road wins (at least within the context of conference play) is that it seems to ignore the flip side: avoiding home losses against really good teams. For example, MU and Creighton have a decent chance end up 16-4 in BE play, undefeated at home with their only losses away to the other four best teams. So you get no good road wins, which looks bad to the committee, but don't get anything for not losing at home. What if they still went 16-4, but flip the road losses to wins and home wins against the top four to losses? Does their resume suddenly look better despite there being no real change to their underlying metrics? Seems like winning on the road to a good team is more helpful than losing at home to a good team is harmful (see the B12, where the top teams all have at least one home conference loss).

I really wonder about that. Say we flip home/road results with Xavier and UConn. Would that have moved us up? I don't know. I do think winning tonight is our best shot at a 3-seed, and we may be capped as a 4 with a loss.

[goldeneagle91114]

Can't look at it that way, it depends what other teams below do.

Here's my complaint with IA State:

1. Yes, the have solid Wins - Kansas (NET 6) , Texas (NET 9), Baylor (NET12), Kansas St. (NET20), TCU AND @TCU (NET22).

2. BUT...all of those, minus one, are home games! just look at their losses: @Iowa (NET 41), Oklahoma AND @ Oklahoma (NET 42), @Missouri (NET 51), @Texas Tech (NET 54)

3. They''re 3 - 7 over the last 11 games, and play @TEXAS tonight.

4. If they lose tonight,  they're a game over .500 in the league (yes, I know its know its the strongest league this year.).

5. Their best conference win is North Carolina (NET 48 -neutral court)

Conclusion:
- They haven't proven they can win on the road (like the committee said they valued)
- They didn't play a tough non-conference schedule
- And after tonight they'll be 1 game above .500 in a tough league

- I get they can beat good teams, but they've also lost to teams well outside the top 25. How does any of this equal a sought after 3 seed, While Marquette is a 4?

[94Warrior]

None of this matters on Feb 21st, and won't for 3 more weeks.

Win tonight and we are looking at a Big East title, and a 3 Seed.

Creighton matters; not Iowa State.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

None of this matters on Feb 21st, and won't for 3 more weeks.

Win tonight and we are looking at a Big East title, and a 3 Seed.

Creighton matters; not Iowa State.

Sure, but I also think that this set the precedent that Marquette needs some help to get to the 3 line, even if they win out.

[cheebs09]

Sure, but I also think that this set the precedent that Marquette needs some help to get to the 3 line, even if they win out.

Eh, I think if MU wins out, I think they are a 3 seed without any help. We would get a marquee road win. Plus, we might be closer to the 3 line than the committee showed due to the last week of data.

[PGsHeroes32]

Sure, but I also think that this set the precedent that Marquette needs some help to get to the 3 line, even if they win out.

I think under the hypothetical we win tonight and the last 3 games.

We will be a 3 seed easy. That would give the road win needed. And the other teams in front of us are all gonna take more Ls

[The Equalizer]

Here's my complaint with IA State:

1. Yes, the have solid Wins - Kansas (NET 6) , Texas (NET 9), Baylor (NET12), Kansas St. (NET20), TCU AND @TCU (NET22).

2. BUT...all of those, minus one, are home games! just look at their losses: @Iowa (NET 41), Oklahoma AND @ Oklahoma (NET 42), @Missouri (NET 51), @Texas Tech (NET 54)

3. They''re 3 - 7 over the last 11 games, and play @TEXAS tonight.

4. If they lose tonight,  they're a game over .500 in the league (yes, I know its know its the strongest league this year.).

5. Their best conference win is North Carolina (NET 48 -neutral court)

Conclusion:
- They haven't proven they can win on the road (like the committee said they valued)
- They didn't play a tough non-conference schedule
- And after tonight they'll be 1 game above .500 in a tough league

- I get they can beat good teams, but they've also lost to teams well outside the top 25. How does any of this equal a sought after 3 seed, While Marquette is a 4?

Iowa State's AD is on the committee this year.

I suspect the personal relationships of those on the committee and horse-trading that goes on behind closed doors have more impact than the bracketologists want to admit.

[MuggsyB]

None of this matters on Feb 21st, and won't for 3 more weeks.

Win tonight and we are looking at a Big East title, and a 3 Seed.

Creighton matters; not Iowa State.

True dat. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Here's my complaint with IA State:

1. Yes, the have solid Wins - Kansas (NET 6) , Texas (NET 9), Baylor (NET12), Kansas St. (NET20), TCU AND @TCU (NET22).

2. BUT...all of those, minus one, are home games! just look at their losses: @Iowa (NET 41), Oklahoma AND @ Oklahoma (NET 42), @Missouri (NET 51), @Texas Tech (NET 54)

3. They''re 3 - 7 over the last 11 games, and play @TEXAS tonight.

4. If they lose tonight,  they're a game over .500 in the league (yes, I know its know its the strongest league this year.).

5. Their best conference win is North Carolina (NET 48 -neutral court)

Conclusion:
- They haven't proven they can win on the road (like the committee said they valued)
- They didn't play a tough non-conference schedule
- And after tonight they'll be 1 game above .500 in a tough league

- I get they can beat good teams, but they've also lost to teams well outside the top 25. How does any of this equal a sought after 3 seed, While Marquette is a 4?

As of the cutoff for consideration in the top 16 reveal (Tuesday the 14th):
Iowa State 7 Q1 Wins (2 away from home), 0 Q3/Q4 losses
Marquette 4 Q1 wins (1 away from home and worse than both of IAST's), 1 Q3/Q4 loss

Don't get me wrong, I had MU over Iowa State too, but it's not like there's no argument for Iowa State to be ahead of us.

[brewcity77]

None of this matters on Feb 21st, and won't for 3 more weeks.

Win tonight and we are looking at a Big East title, and a 3 Seed.

Creighton matters; not Iowa State.

If you don't care about talking college basketball and the things that impact Marquette, you may have logged on to the wrong website.

[Herman Cain]

Iowa State's AD is on the committee this year.

I suspect the personal relationships of those on the committee and horse-trading that goes on behind closed doors have more impact than the bracketologists want to admit.

I agree with this analysis

[94Warrior]

If you don't care about talking college basketball and the things that impact Marquette, you may have logged on to the wrong website.

Looky there.  We now have a big road win, and have a 3 seed all but locked up if we beat DPU, Butler & SJU.  2 seed if we win the BET. 
  All that focus on Iowa State wasn't necessary after all.  Hows that for analysis?

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Looky there.  We now have a big road win, and have a 3 seed all but locked up if we beat DPU, Butler & SJU.  2 seed if we win the BET. 
  All that focus on Iowa State wasn't necessary after all.  Hows that for analysis?

If they win at Texas they're probably still ahead of Marquette.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

If they win at Texas they're probably still ahead of Marquette.

Do you not realize Texas kicked their ass tonight?