[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette's Q1 Gauntlet

[brewcity77]

Marquette has three remaining Quadrant 1 games on their schedule, and all of them come in the next 15 days. Today we look at the 10 teams from the end of the 2-line to the start of the 5-line to see where Marquette stands currently and what it would take to move up, hold firm, or fall. These games will be crucial for seeding and looking at the records and metrics of teams around Marquette makes it easy to see why. We also have a new S-Curve and Bracket after a chaotic weekend in college basketball!

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2023/02/marquettes-q1-gauntlet.html

[The Sultan]

I would be thrilled with 3-1...satisfied with 2-2...hoping its not 1-3.

This is going to be a real tough stretch.

[bilsu]

UConn's four game stretch is: Marquette, at Creighton, Seton Hall and Providence.
The first game most likely determines who does better in the next four games.

[UWW2MU]

Marquette has three remaining Quadrant 1 games on their schedule, and all of them come in the next 15 days. Today we look at the 10 teams from the end of the 2-line to the start of the 5-line to see where Marquette stands currently and what it would take to move up, hold firm, or fall. These games will be crucial for seeding and looking at the records and metrics of teams around Marquette makes it easy to see why. We also have a new S-Curve and Bracket after a chaotic weekend in college basketball!

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2023/02/marquettes-q1-gauntlet.html

I don't want to be a member of the COLE, but I'm a little concerned about where the team is mentally right now.  They seem to not quite have that same focus and sharpness.  The February fade debates going on around here lately isn't just a thing for MU, it's common for really good teams.  It's the teams who keep or gain momentum during this time of year that usually go on good runs at the end of the year.  I'm very confident they can break through, but will we take a little hit in the meantime for bracket purposes?  It's up to Shaka and team to figure that out! 


Side note, come on! Are your rules that strict on the mid majors that you couldn't bump Milwaukee over Youngstown?   

[mugrad_89]

I would gladly trade a seed line to stay out of Arizona's region.

[Shooter McGavin]

My concern is somewhat the same.  UConn and Creighton have something to prove and will be more focused down the stretch.  bothe teams have already gone through their swoon.  MU will have to mentally meet their focus and energy to win. 

The good news is we have the team to do it.  Kolek and Oso are seemingly great leaders.  If they shoot/score like they are capable MU should be fine and a Big East title is in sight.

[GoldenEagles03]

My concern is somewhat the same.  UConn and Creighton have something to prove and will be more focused down the stretch.  bothe teams have already gone through their swoon.  MU will have to mentally meet their focus and energy to win. 

The good news is we have the team to do it.  Kolek and Oso are seemingly great leaders.  If they shoot/score like they are capable MU should be fine and a Big East title is in sight.

F*** em. Don't make me become the overly optimistic one here.

Some of you guys have said it all year and been right on...go win em all.  UConn has limited scoring options.  Creighton has 0 bench. (Crazy sidenote: Creighton/Nova had 0 total bench points on Saturday night).

Anyways...this team is really good. Whether we are at home or on the road, we are going to give everything we've got even if not at our best.  They'll be ready to go!

[mugrad_89]

F*** em. Don't make me become the overly optimistic one here.

Some of you guys have said it all year and been right on...go win em all.  UConn has limited scoring options.  Creighton has 0 bench. (Crazy sidenote: Creighton/Nova had 0 total bench points on Saturday night).

Anyways...this team is really good. Whether we are at home or on the road, we are going to give everything we've got even if not at our best.  They'll be ready to go!

The lack of a bench has been McDermott's biggest failing this year.  They've managed to avoid foul trouble most games, but this could bite them in the tournament if they get a tightly called game.

[Its DJOver]

We have zero road wins against likely tournament teams (0-3).  They've all been close games so I doubt we'll get blown out on the road, but our 5 true road wins on the season are all against bad (ND, StJ, DP), or meh (Nova, SH) teams.  We have two opportunities here to change the narrative, but I would not be at all surprised with a 2-2 stretch, and the home game against X will by no means be easy either.

[GoldenEagles03]

We have zero road wins against likely tournament teams (0-3).  They've all been close games so I doubt we'll get blown out on the road, but our 5 true road wins on the season are all against bad (ND, StJ, DP), or meh (Nova, SH) teams.  We have two opportunities here to change the narrative, but I would not be at all surprised with a 2-2 stretch, and the home game against X will by no means be easy either.

Meh.  Maybe so, but Xavier lost at Depaul and we won by 20 in Chicago.  We won by 20 at Seton Hall who has worked their way into the bubble conversation. Tied at Xavier under a minute to go.

This team can play anybody on the road.

[MU82]

UConn and Creighton have something to prove and will be more focused down the stretch.

I don't know why either has more to "prove" than Marquette does (or many other teams do).

Each game is a challenge for each team. So far, Marquette's done a pretty darn good job of rising to whatever the challenge is, especially since the loss to Madison -- that's two solid months of rising to challenge after challenge. (Yes, Shaka's guys lost tight games at The Provi and X, but it wasn't because they lacked focus or anything arbitrary like that.) Even when we struggled a little in games against inferior opponents, perhaps playing down to the level of competition sometimes, MU came through down the stretch every time.

We've played several games against opponents who were supposedly "desperate," and we did just fine in those. I like to think Shaka will have his guys feeling like Marquette is the team with something to prove; so far, the body of work gives me every reason to think that will be the case again.

IMHO, we have a better chance of going 4-0 during this stretch than we do of going 1-3.

[Its DJOver]

Meh.  Maybe so, but Xavier lost at Deapaul and we won by 20 in Chicago.  We won by 20 at Seton Hall who has worked their way into the bubble conversation. Tied at Xavier under a minute to go.

This team can play anybody on the road.

Which I noted.  I think its partly a case of small sample size, we've only played three true road games against tourney teams.  But the fact remains that it's Feb and our best win outside the FF is .?.?.  SH? Bubble team sure, but not in the field if the tourney started today.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't want to be a member of the COLE, but I'm a little concerned about where the team is mentally right now.  They seem to not quite have that same focus and sharpness.  The February fade debates going on around here lately isn't just a thing for MU, it's common for really good teams.  It's the teams who keep or gain momentum during this time of year that usually go on good runs at the end of the year.  I'm very confident they can break through, but will we take a little hit in the meantime for bracket purposes?  It's up to Shaka and team to figure that out! 


Side note, come on! Are your rules that strict on the mid majors that you couldn't bump Milwaukee over Youngstown?   

I don't think mentality is a problem for this team. I think we've played two teams in a row who used the same effective defensive strategy against us and it slowed down our offense. Coaching staff will need to find a way to adjust and prepare for future teams to do the same against us. Meanwhile, we are having our best defensive stretch of the season. Keep the defense up and find a way to work around the switch on everything and pack the paint defense and we will be making a lot of noise.

[Eye]

I would gladly trade a seed line to stay out of Arizona's region.

Ditto.

[GoldenEagles03]

Which I noted.  I think its partly a case of small sample size, we've only played three true road games against tourney teams.  But the fact remains that it's Feb and our best win outside the FF is .?.?.  SH? Bubble team sure, but not in the field if the tourney started today.

They are 5-3 overall on the road with 1 Q1 road win and 2 Q2 road wins.  That is solid.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

They are 5-3 overall on the road with 1 Q1 road win and 2 Q2 road wins.  That is solid.

Especially when you factor in the way Marquette has blown out teams in several road games.

And all of the losses were down to the wire.  Providence should have been a win and Xavier very easily could have been a win.

This isn't a team that gets blown out on the road by good teams and barely eeks by the bad teams (at Nova being the one exception).

[Its DJOver]

They are 5-3 overall on the road with 1 Q1 road win and 2 Q2 road wins.  That is solid.

Solid, yes.  In the field, for sure.  But our resume is largely as good as it is because all of our losses have been close, and we have been largely unbeatable at home.  Our marquee wins (Baylor, Creighton, UConn, Providence) have all been at the FF.

Compare our best road win to teams we're currently competing with to try and get up to the 3-line.

TCU: Blowout win @ Kansas.
Gonzaga: Neutral court wins against X and Bama (X was more of a home/neutral played in Portland, Bama was more of a road/neutral played in Birmingham).
Kansas St: Wins @ Texas and @ Baylor.
Iowa St: Win @TCU.
Baylor: Neutral Court wins over UCLA and Gonzaga.
Virginia: Neutral court wins against Baylor and Illinois.

Even some teams behind us have a better win away from home than us.  Rutgers won @ Purdue, Indiana won @X, Illinois has neutral court wins against UCLA and Texas. 

Road wins are only one part of our total resume, but it's definitely an area we can/need to improve on both in our next 4 game stretch as well as in NY.

[MuggsyB]

We have zero road wins against likely tournament teams (0-3).  They've all been close games so I doubt we'll get blown out on the road, but our 5 true road wins on the season are all against bad (ND, StJ, DP), or meh (Nova, SH) teams.  We have two opportunities here to change the narrative, but I would not be at all surprised with a 2-2 stretch, and the home game against X will by no means be easy either.

Correct, but it's important to note we were in prime position to win at XU and lost in OT at Providence when they took 1000 FT's.   We've had three opportunities and lost three close games.  This should actually help us moving forward.  Now, our last two performances have been less than stellar.  That said good teams find ways to win when they are not playing near their A level.

I see 0.0 reasons why UCONN, Creighton, or anyone else should have greater motivation than MU during this stretch run.  And I'll tell you something else:  MU has yet to reach its peak level.  We have seen flashes but are without question capable of amping things up another notch and shooting better from downtown.  This is a very good and highly motivated team DJO. I fully expect us to be focused, ready to play tomorrow night, and over the next several weeks.  A BEast title is our motivation for now and we can usurp it if we play Marquette basketball. 

[brewcity77]

I don't know why either has more to "prove" than Marquette does (or many other teams do).

Each game is a challenge for each team. So far, Marquette's done a pretty darn good job of rising to whatever the challenge is, especially since the loss to Madison -- that's two solid months of rising to challenge after challenge.

Especially when it comes to UConn. We could totally lose that game and will be underdogs, but UConn has really not delivered since the first X loss. They drop two on the road, then "get right" against Creighton.

Well, maybe not because they lose to Marquette. So they'll get right against St John's. Nope, another loss. Against Seton Hall? Nope, another loss. They finally hammer Butler, but follow that up with a loss in their campus gym where they never lose. And are coming off a real struggle with Georgetown in DC.

Logic would dictate they'll figure it out at some point. Maybe that point is tomorrow. But they've spent six weeks waiting for tomorrow and haven't found it yet, so I'm not willing to write that game off just yet, especially at XL.

[Its DJOver]

Correct, but it's important to note we were in prime position to win at XU and lost in OT at Providence when they took 1000 FT's.   We've had three opportunities and lost three close games.  This should actually help us moving forward.  Now, our last two performances have been less than stellar.  That said good teams find ways to win when they are not playing near their A level.

I see 0.0 reasons why UCONN, Creighton, or anyone else should have greater motivation than MU during this stretch run.  And I'll tell you something else:  MU has yet to reach its peak level.  We have seen flashes but are without question capable of amping things up another notch and shooting better from downtown.  This is a very good and highly motivated team DJO. I fully expect us to be focused, ready to play tomorrow night, and over the next several weeks.  A BEast title is our motivation for now and we can usurp it if we play Marquette basketball.

We know that but the committee probably won't have paid attention to ft margin from a game in December.

If I remember correctly, in 2017 we were very bubbly and had similar resume's to other bubble teams, but the general consensus going into selection sunday was that we would get in based on our "best wins" (@eventual 6 seed Creighton, and against the no.1 overall seed Nova) were better than those around us.  Fast forward to 2023 and our "best wins" are inferior to those currently around us.  Still time to change that, but we are starting to run out of opportunities.   

[Shooter McGavin]

F*** em. Don't make me become the overly optimistic one here.

Some of you guys have said it all year and been right on...go win em all.  UConn has limited scoring options.  Creighton has 0 bench. (Crazy sidenote: Creighton/Nova had 0 total bench points on Saturday night).

Anyways...this team is really good. Whether we are at home or on the road, we are going to give everything we've got even if not at our best.  They'll be ready to go!

Oh, I agree F' em!  All I'm saying is the team needs to bring that attitude to the game to get it done.  They have the talent.  Just get er done!!!

[MuggsyB]

We know that but the committee probably won't have paid attention to ft margin from a game in December.

If I remember correctly, in 2017 we were very bubbly and had similar resume's to other bubble teams, but the general consensus going into selection sunday was that we would get in based on our "best wins" (@eventual 6 seed Creighton, and against the no.1 overall seed Nova) were better than those around us.  Fast forward to 2023 and our "best wins" are inferior to those currently around us.  Still time to change that, but we are starting to run out of opportunities.

Yes.  Most teams near us in the rankings have had far more opportunities.  You can only play your schedule.  I also wouldn't sell short taking the Hall to the woodshed in Jersey. 

[GoldenEagles03]

Oh, I agree F' em!  All I'm saying is the team needs to bring that attitude to the game to get it done.  They have the talent.  Just get er done!!!

I just want to get firmly on that 3 line to avoid the 13 seeds.  I've seen multiple brackets with us lining up to play VCU in a 4/13 matchup.

Though it would be fun, I'd rather avoid that Shaka/VCU matchup and get as much of a cupcake as possible in Round 1.

[rgoode57]

The upcoming stretch of games is critical. I hate to say it, but I see no way we go 4-0 in this stretch. Playing at UConn is hard and playing at Creighton is a nightmare. Perhaps UConn has had their problems this season, but they are still a good team, and Creighton is playing extremely well now. X is X and can well beat us in Milwaukee. GT is a bad team with a bad coach, but the way this game is positioned in the schedule scares me. And, GT did give UConn a good game the other day. If we come out of this stretch 3-1, I will breathe a huge sigh of relief.

The last two games, I suspect, indicate what we are going to see defensively from other teams the rest of the year - pack the lane to prevent drives and back cuts; make MU shoot from the perimeter. If teams do that well, our offense looks very different - not in a good way.

[HowardsWorld]

The upcoming stretch of games is critical. I hate to say it, but I see no way we go 4-0 in this stretch. Playing at UConn is hard and playing at Creighton is a nightmare. Perhaps UConn has had their problems this season, but they are still a good team, and Creighton is playing extremely well now. X is X and can well beat us in Milwaukee. GT is a bad team with a bad coach, but the way this game is positioned in the schedule scares me. And, GT did give UConn a good game the other day. If we come out of this stretch 3-1, I will breathe a huge sigh of relief.

The last two games, I suspect, indicate what we are going to see defensively from other teams the rest of the year - pack the lane to prevent drives and back cuts; make MU shoot from the perimeter. If teams do that well, our offense looks very different - not in a good way.

This is why I voted that Uconn is the biggest game remaining not from a standpoint that we have the most to gain but rather to stop a downfall before it starts. If Marquette wins at Uconn I could see them going 3-0 heading to Creighton and no reason they cant be them. If they lose to Uconn and play bad at Gtown but win then a tough match up with X they could be looking at 1-2 going to creighton with no momentum at all.