KenPom Now Has MU As The #1 Offense In The Nation

[Not A Serious Person]

Just exceeded Purdue for #1 on Adjusted Offense in KenPom’s rankings

https://kenpom.com/

On the CBS Sports post game after the Providence game, Garry Parrish noted the old adage “Defense wins Championship” really does NOT apply in college basketball. It is efficient offenses that win the college hoops game.

At the time he said that MU was a “top 3 Kenpom offense” and everything he has seen passes the eye test on this front.

He said teams that score points, and score points easily, play in the second and third weeks of the tournament. And MU scores about as easily as anyone.

Do you agree with Parrish that offense is the most important statistic and MU now #1 is a big deal?

[MU82]

Just as all of us predicted would be the case on Nov. 1.

Congrats to Shaka, Nevada Smith, the other assistants, and our talented, hard-working players.

As to whether or not it will turn out to be the "most important statistic" ... not a single person knows, but it's gonna be fun to find out.

[StillAWarrior]

As to whether or not it will turn out to be the "most important statistic" ... not a single person knows, but it's gonna be fun to find out.

Good Lord, I'm going to fill out some ridiculously optomistic march madness brackets that are sure to sink me. Unless...

[Goose]

The game of basketball has changed a great deal over the past decade. I heard Shaka mention that Steph Curry changed the game, and it took the media and fans a long time to realize the way the game has changed. I believe MU's defense is definitely good enough to play with any team in the country and their offense should be a major concern to anyone they play.

Shaka and his staff seem to be completely on the same page with what they want from this team and the players bought into it. Now, they could hit at ceiling, even lower than what we hope, but until proven otherwise I believe this team can play with any team in the country.

I say it all the time, but I think their defense is far better than their ranking. When they turn the focus to defense when needed it looks awfully good to me. IMO, they have the players for close to lockdown defense but have chosen to put much of the energy on offense.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods.  (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)

You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.

[tower912]

Marquette has already shown it can play with any team in the country.    Losing a tight one in Mackey established that.

Being #1 in offensive efficiency is a fun talking point.   And, if MU had any room, it would be a great bullet in the powerpoint for recruits.

[MU82]

Good points, Goose and Sultan.

The extended defense also contributes to some of our problems on the boards. But every coach and every system has trade-offs. Our defensive system creates turnovers that lead to breakouts and easy buckets, but it also sometimes leads to dunks or offensive putbacks by our opponents. Shaka has decided he can live with that tradeoff, and I don't blame him.

We have an entertaining and successful system, both offensive and defensive. Even accounting for the occasional frustrating moments, I'm having a blast watching this team.

And yes, Goose, I don't see a single team in America we can't beat.

[Jockey]

The game of basketball has changed a great deal over the past decade. I heard Shaka mention that Steph Curry changed the game, and it took the media and fans a long time to realize the way the game has changed. I believe MU's defense is definitely good enough to play with any team in the country and their offense should be a major concern to anyone they play.

A couple months ago in the NBA THREAD, I said the same thing about Curry.

Changing the game was one of the reasons for ranking him above Durant. Also the same reason that I rank Jabbar over MJ and LeBron as the GOAT.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Offense travels?

[MarquetteDano]

Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods.  (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)

You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.

This.  Sure,  you will see some teams that are both Top 10 in defense and offense but those teams are normally filled with lottery picks.  With the talent level we have (it is very good,  but we don't have lottery picks left and right) you are not going to have a #1 offense and a Top #20 defense.

I think if we could have a Top #50 defense with this offense,  we will be  hard to beat.

[Scoop Snoop]

Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods.  (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)

You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.

Interesting take. Hadn't thought of that.

[Uncle Rico]

Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods.  (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)

You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.

If you could, you’d be an NBA team

[MU82]

I think if we could have a Top #50 defense with this offense,  we will be  hard to beat.

True ... but aren't we already hard to beat?

We've already played three teams ranked in the top 6 when at tip-off. Only one beat us, and we certainly weren't easy to beat in that game.

There are teams we match up worse with than others; we also create matchup problems for opponents.

But yes, I agree with what I think is your point: If we can continue to improve on defense (which includes ending defensive possessions by securing rebounds), we will be even harder to beat.

[Elonsmusk]

Offense travels?

Interesting quote from Shaka recently mentioned that he began to realize the psychological benefit on the defensive end, that being successful on offense provides.  Said guys feel good about themselves when scoring the ball and it builds momentum defensively.

Also interesting to note:  To date we've played the 14th most difficult schedule as it relates to offensive efficiency, so our defensive efficiency ranking is affected some due to having played a schedule that has been against strong offensive teams YTD.

Only Iowa State, Kansas, and Alabama above us in Ken Pom have played a more difficult schedule as it relates to facing top offenses at 6, 11, and 12 respectively.

I think Alabama is the best team in the country.  Iowa State's defense can keep them in any game.  Still surprised my betting site has MU at 60-1 to win the National Championship.  Very good value bet, actually.

[Daniel]

Interesting quote from Shaka recently mentioned that he began to realize the psychological benefit on the defensive end, that being successful on offense provides.  Said guys feel good about themselves when scoring the ball and it builds momentum defensively.

Also interesting to note:  To date we've played the 14th most difficult schedule as it relates to offensive efficiency, so our defensive efficiency ranking is affected some due to having played a schedule that has been against strong offensive teams YTD.

Only Iowa State, Kansas, and Alabama above us in Ken Pom have played a more difficult schedule as it relates to facing top offenses at 6, 11, and 12 respectively.

I think Alabama is the best team in the country.  Iowa State's defense can keep them in any game.  Still surprised my betting site has MU at 60-1 to win the National Championship.  Very good value bet, actually.

That is an interesting insight by Shaka …. You can see it in games, like when Stevie scores, he is so pumped in defense immediately after .   Other guys too.  He is on to something.

[StillAWarrior]

Interesting quote from Shaka recently mentioned that he began to realize the psychological benefit on the defensive end, that being successful on offense provides.  Said guys feel good about themselves when scoring the ball and it builds momentum defensively.

That reminds me of Shaka's comment during the All-Access game against DePaul last year: "The math is simple. If they don't score, they won't defend."

[wadesworld]

We can play with any team in any single game.  But winning 6 straight games against some of the better teams in the country (outside of maybe your first game if you're a high enough seed) is tough to do when your defense is where MU's is.  Actually it's been impossible.  Since KenPom came around in 2002, no team has ever won a national championship with an adjusted defensive ranking outside of the top 22 (and no team has won a national title with an adjust offensive ranking outside the top 40, which Marquette should stay in).  The average adjusted defensive ranking of national champions has been 9.55.  The game has certainly changed in the past decade alone, but one thing that has remained true is you still need to defend to win a title.  Marquette has to be MUCH better defensively if they want to win 6 straight games in March/April.

Even winning 4 straight to make a Final Four has been nearly impossible for teams that look like Marquette this season.  There have been 155 teams that have been in the top 10 of KenPom on one end of the court and outside of the top 50 of KenPom on the other end of the court.  Only 4 of those teams have made a Final Four.

[MarquetteDano]

We can play with any team in any single game.  But winning 6 straight games against some of the better teams in the country (outside of maybe your first game if you're a high enough seed) is tough to do when your defense is where MU's is.  Actually it's been impossible.  Since KenPom came around in 2002, no team has ever won a national championship with an adjusted defensive ranking outside of the top 22 (and no team has won a national title with an adjust offensive ranking outside the top 40, which Marquette should stay in).  The average adjusted defensive ranking of national champions has been 9.55.  The game has certainly changed in the past decade alone, but one thing that has remained true is you still need to defend to win a title.  Marquette has to be MUCH better defensively if they want to win 6 straight games in March/April.

Even winning 4 straight to make a Final Four has been nearly impossible for teams that look like Marquette this season.  There have been 155 teams that have been in the top 10 of KenPom on one end of the court and outside of the top 50 of KenPom on the other end of the court.  Only 4 of those teams have made a Final Four.

Agree you need defense and offense balance.  I would like to see each National Champion's rankings right before the tourney tough.  Going on an amazing six game run against the best teams the country will do wonders to your KenPom rankings.  I wonder if the worst defense ranking prior to the tourney could be something more like #30 or so.

[GoldenEagles03]

I heard a stat something along the lines of no National Champion has had a defense worse than 40-50 on KenPom.  Not sure of the validity, but it makes sense.

Marquettes defense is currently in the 90s.  Needs improvement, but I'm not concerned about it just yet.

[CountryRoads]

I heard a stat something along the lines of no National Champion has had a defense worse than 40-50 on KenPom.  Not sure of the validity, but it makes sense.

Marquettes defense is currently in the 90s.  Needs improvement, but I'm not concerned about it just yet.

National Champions in the Kenpom era…

Format: (offense rank, defense rank):

2022: Kansas (6, 17)
2021: Baylor (2, 22)
2019: Virginia (2, 5)
2018: Villanova (1, 11)
2017: North Carolina (9, 11)
2016: Villanova (3, 5)
2015: Duke (3, 11)
2014: Connecticut (39, 10)
2013: Louisville (7, 1)
2012: Kentucky (2, 7)
2011: Connecticut (19, 15)
2010: Duke (1, 5)
2009: North Carolina (1, 18)
2008: Kansas (2, 1)
2007: Florida (1, 13)
2006: Florida (3, 7)
2005: North Carolina (2, 5)
2004: Connecticut (9, 6)
2003: Syracuse (17, 14)
2002: Maryland (4, 7)

Considering the above, looks like there’s a good chance the champion comes from this group this year:

Houston (6, 2)
UCLA (12, 5)
Alabama (13, 7)
Purdue (3, 18)
Connecticut (16, 12)
Kansas (17, 14)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We can play with any team in any single game.  But winning 6 straight games against some of the better teams in the country (outside of maybe your first game if you're a high enough seed) is tough to do when your defense is where MU's is.  Actually it's been impossible.  Since KenPom came around in 2002, no team has ever won a national championship with an adjusted defensive ranking outside of the top 22 (and no team has won a national title with an adjust offensive ranking outside the top 40, which Marquette should stay in).  The average adjusted defensive ranking of national champions has been 9.55.  The game has certainly changed in the past decade alone, but one thing that has remained true is you still need to defend to win a title.  Marquette has to be MUCH better defensively if they want to win 6 straight games in March/April.

Even winning 4 straight to make a Final Four has been nearly impossible for teams that look like Marquette this season.  There have been 155 teams that have been in the top 10 of KenPom on one end of the court and outside of the top 50 of KenPom on the other end of the court.  Only 4 of those teams have made a Final Four.

A nit to pick with this, you are looking at final numbers, not teams numbers entering the NCAAT. There have been teams that started outside the top 22 in defensive rating that because if how they played in the tournament finished in the top 22.

That being said, I agree that MUs defense is not quality enough to cut down the nets this season. It is good enough to make some noise in March

[cheebs09]

Still not getting enough respect.

Our defense seems to me like a bend don’t break type of philosophy. We hang around in the first half and hope to wear down in the opponent in the second half where our offense can pull away a bit.

I’m not sure that’s where Shaka wants to be long term. I’m also not too discouraged that we aren’t at National Champion level yet.

[wadesworld]

A nit to pick with this, you are looking at final numbers, not teams numbers entering the NCAAT. There have been teams that started outside the top 22 in defensive rating that because if how they played in the tournament finished in the top 22.

That being said, I agree that MUs defense is not quality enough to cut down the nets this season. It is good enough to make some noise in March

I'm sure there were one or two outliers that were outside of the top 25 going into the Tournament.  But the final average (yes, after a great 6 game run for these teams) was 9.55.  While the rankings probably moved some, I don't think it was moving a ton in a 6 game sample size out of a 35-40 game season.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Still not getting enough respect.

Our defense seems to me like a bend don’t break type of philosophy. We hang around in the first half and hope to wear down in the opponent in the second half where our offense can pull away a bit.

I’m not sure that’s where Shaka wants to be long term. I’m also not too discouraged that we aren’t at National Champion level yet.

The problem with MU's defense last year was the turnovers on offense which led to breakouts on the other end.

This year MU has to extend the pressure for steals and to lengthen the time of possession. Deflections. That has worked well. What hasn't is the second chance possessions. 

According to Pomeroy, the most controllable things for a good defense are:

The defense’s tools are two-point defense and influencing shot selection. While a frightening number of things are in the offense’s control – leading to the offense having 64% control over its points per possession number – the defense has significant influence over where shots are taken from and how effective the offense is near the rim.

In other words, great defenses are built from the baseline out.

https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-the-summary/

[SaveOD238]

National Champions in the Kenpom era…

Format: (offense rank, defense rank):

2022: Kansas (6, 17)
2021: Baylor (2, 22)
2019: Virginia (2, 5)
2018: Villanova (1, 11)
2017: North Carolina (9, 11)
2016: Villanova (3, 5)
2015: Duke (3, 11)
2014: Connecticut (39, 10)
2013: Louisville (7, 1)
2012: Kentucky (2, 7)
2011: Connecticut (19, 15)
2010: Duke (1, 5)
2009: North Carolina (1, 18)
2008: Kansas (2, 1)
2007: Florida (1, 13)
2006: Florida (3, 7)
2005: North Carolina (2, 5)
2004: Connecticut (9, 6)
2003: Syracuse (17, 14)
2002: Maryland (4, 7)

Considering the above, looks like there’s a good chance the champion comes from this group this year:

Houston (6, 2)
UCLA (12, 5)
Alabama (13, 7)
Purdue (3, 18)
Connecticut (16, 12)
Kansas (17, 14)

11 of those teams have top 4 offenses.

Only 2 had top 4 defenses.

So you're telling me there's a chance??