#16 @ Ken Pom

[PointWarrior]

Is it not semantically correct to post above the quote?

Point, why do you keep posting above the quote? You are the only poster doing that.

[PointWarrior]

Funny - I know I had posts in the beginning of the year that said KenPom and Value Add are taken so seriously by the basketball know it alls that we don’t even have to play the games anymore. 

Well aware of how KenPom works…

You don’t understand how KenPom’s site works, haven’t taken the time to learn or read how it works from the thousands of posts here.  At this point, that ignorance is on you.

Arizona is currently 5th in the AP poll and just lost to Washington State who is 7-10 now with a loss to Prairie View A&M on its ledger.  Good teams lose to good teams, mediocre teams and lousy teams.  That’s why they play the games

[Elonsmusk]

Now at 15 after todays action..highest we've been since the 2003 team.

And Ken Pom is a God.  PointWarrior seems to have uncloaked himself as a closet Badger fan. 

[pbiflyer]

So betting retirement funds on kenpom predictions is a good plan then?

[avid1010]

So betting retirement funds on kenpom predictions is a good plan then?

Many people made millions off of KenPom early on...you can't bet on his predictions...they are literally the odds.  Safe to say you can likely bet either side...hit 50%...and the books will take the juice.

[Lennys Tap]

Is it not semantically correct to post above the quote?

It upsets nit pickers - everyone else couldn’t care less.

[Fred Garvin]

Point Warrior=Nolonger Warriors

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It upsets nit pickers - everyone else couldn’t care less.

You think I’m upset about it? 😂😂😂

[PointWarrior]

Really?   Cause I hate losing to the Badgers?  Cause I dislike KenPom?     Love the Shaka hire, always have.   

Have I ever uttered anything even close to any repeated hatred of Marquette and Shaka nolonger posts??  Please show me...

Point Warrior=Nolonger Warriors

[cheebs09]

Now at 15 after todays action..highest we've been since the 2003 team.

That’s kind of wild. Does anyone know how high the Amigos got their senior year?

[PointWarrior]

Duplicate post

[BM1090]

Now at 15 after todays action..highest we've been since the 2003 team.

And Ken Pom is a God.  PointWarrior seems to have uncloaked himself as a closet Badger fan.

We were up to 6th in 2011 on two separate occasions. After winning @ Wisconsin and beating UWGB at home.

[Elonsmusk]

We were up to 6th in 2011 on two separate occasions. After winning @ Wisconsin and beating UWGB at home.

Ahh...good catch.  That aside it is pretty remarkable to think that in Year 2 of Shaka we are in KenPom territory we've only been in twice since the inception of Ken Pom in 2002.

[statnik]

TRank, which was created by a UW alum, has MU 14th and UW 64th. The computers all like MU more than UW. It’s not surprising.

Yep, when almost all of your wins are by double digits and one of your close losses had a likely anomaly with Providence taking 30 more FTs than MU, it definitely makes sense that the computer rankings would like MU vs their record.

[TallTitan34]

That’s kind of wild. Does anyone know how high the Amigos got their senior year?

They finished 19.

I don’t think there is a way to check but I assume the peak would have been when they were 20-2 (9-0) or 23-4 (12-2).

The first kenpom season you can check what teams were ranked at game time is 2009-10.

Missed it by a year.

[DoctorV]

Yep, when almost all of your wins are by double digits and one of your close losses had a likely anomaly with Providence taking 30 more FTs than MU, it definitely makes sense that the computer rankings would like MU vs their record.

Yea that was anomalous indeed, but not all too crazy for this Providence team, especially when they go up against a Marquette team that can be pretty anemic with getting to the line at times.

Providence just this week shot 16 more free throws, and made 19 more, than UConn who is massive inside.
They also shot 14 more, and made 10 more, than StJ.
Meanwhile, Georgetown, yes THAT Georgetown, shot 15 more free throws than Marquette at FiServ.

So, it seems that getting to the line is part of Providences gameplan, much like it was for MU under Buzz- he always wanted to make more than the opposing team attempted.

Also let’s not forget that another anomalous thing happened that game- TyKo scored 29 points.

More than likely in the rematch Bryce Hopkins doesn’t go for 29&23 and Tyler doesn’t go for 29. Providence doesn’t out free throw Marquette by anywhere close to that margin, if at all.

I will be keeping a close eye on OMax in these next 3 games on the defensive side of the ball. He’s been billed as an elite defender and I want to see it against some of the BE best.

[mileskishnish72]

We're up to #15 pre-UConn.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Many people made millions off of KenPom early on...you can't bet on his predictions...they are literally the odds.  Safe to say you can likely bet either side...hit 50%...and the books will take the juice.

You can use it to dig deeper on the matchups though.

For example aggregate kenpom data has us losing by 2 but if you look at the factors we should get killed on the glass, and our only defensive strength (forcing turnovers) is likely nullified by their propensity to avoid turnovers.

That tells me odds are good we lose by more than 2 if I was a betting man.

But this is college-aged teenagers we're talking about, not numbers on a page! Let's eff 'em up tonight!

[Jay Bee]

You can use it to dig deeper on the matchups though.

For example aggregate kenpom data has us losing by 2 but if you look at the factors we should get killed on the glass, and our only defensive strength (forcing turnovers) is likely nullified by their propensity to avoid turnovers.

Or you could go deeper and see they’ve barely played any teams who are good at forcing turnovers.

Exception is Iowa St.  UCONN coughed it up 30% - horrible.

[Goose]

Jay Bee

I think our defense is going to cause problems tonight and will be the difference. My gut says we are going to see a lot of defensive looks and frustrate UConn.

[Uncle Rico]

Up to 14 after the win, will fluctuate maybe with a bunch of games undecided. 

Up to 4 in offensive efficiency 😍

If the numbers are accurate, Marquette turned them over slightly more than UConn’s average but UConn balanced that with more offensive rebounds than usual.  UConn was much worse from 3 tonight than most nights.

Basically, this offense is bonkers good

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Basically, this offense is bonkers good

Pay Nevada Smith all the money

[BM1090]

Up to 14 after the win, will fluctuate maybe with a bunch of games undecided. 

Up to 4 in offensive efficiency 😍

If the numbers are accurate, Marquette turned them over slightly more than UConn’s average but UConn balanced that with more offensive rebounds than usual.  UConn was much worse from 3 tonight than most nights.

Basically, this offense is bonkers good

Not sure who we passed (Missouri?), but MU is up to 3 in offensive efficiency

[DoctorV]

There are 2 teams in the country top 10 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency
— Houston (#9O and #2D) and the one Marquette beat tonight (#10,10)

Of the top 10 offensive efficient teams, only 3 have a top 50 defense.
— the two mentioned above and Purdue (#2O, 27D)

The others have defenses ranked
86,82(MU),72,63,201,89,85

Seems to be a propensity for elite offenses having relatively poor statistical defenses in KenPoms model.

The three top 10 O’s that were also in the top 50 defensively have a tempo of
335,186,320- very slow or slow.

All the others have top 100 tempos except OSU(233)- very fast or fast.

Statheads can correct me if I’m wrong or supplement to this, but aren’t most tourney teams in the top 50/60 in both offensive and defensive efficiency by seasons end?
In other words, isn’t there going to be a correction in the above elite offenses defensive efficiencies by regular seasons end?

[Uncle Rico]

There are 2 teams in the country top 10 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency
— Houston (#9O and #2D) and the one Marquette beat tonight (#10,10)

Of the top 10 offensive efficient teams, only 3 have a top 50 defense.
— the two mentioned above and Purdue (#2O, 27D)

The others have defenses ranked
86,82(MU),72,63,201,89,85

Seems to be a propensity for elite offenses having relatively poor statistical defenses in KenPoms model.

The three top 10 O’s that were also in the top 50 defensively have a tempo of
335,186,320- very slow or slow.

All the others have top 100 tempos except OSU(233)- very fast or fast.

Statheads can correct me if I’m wrong or supplement to this, but aren’t most tourney teams in the top 50/60 in both offensive and defensive efficiency by seasons end?
In other words, isn’t there going to be a correction in the above elite offenses defensive efficiencies by regular seasons end?

Not necessarily.  It can work both ways.  Marquette’s team this year is an instance where we know the defense isn’t great but plays enough great stretches to couple with an elite offense.

It does limit the ceiling of this team.  Matchups will be huge in March if things stay the same.  If you go to T-Rank and look at similar resumes, results in March pasts aren’t promising.  Falling on the 4/5 line will make any potential round two matchup a tossup