[Cracked Sidewalks] Unbiased Data & the Big East

[wadesworld]

I never said better.  You are just making false statements now.  I said there are less freebie wins.  The league is more slop in the middle which is now like teams 2-10 compared to the typical middle of like 5-9.  More slop doesn't mean better, in fact typically the opposite.

Creighton probably will right the ship and move that to teams 3-10, but point still stands.

So the top is worse, but the bottom is roughly the same.  Which would mean there are more opportunities for easier wins, not less.

[GoldenEagles03]

So the top is worse, but the bottom is roughly the same.  Which would mean there are more opportunities for easier wins, not less.

Maybe from UConn and possibly Creighton's perspective.

[wadesworld]

Maybe from UConn and possibly Creighton's perspective.

That's not really calculating.  Are you saying this year's 10th best team is as good as last year's 4th best team was?

[GoldenEagles03]

That's not really calculating.  Are you saying this year's 10th best team is as good as last year's 4th best team was?

No

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's where we disagree because I'm under the impression that the middle of the pack is larger than it's been in the past meaning teams 3-10 are more similar than different.  So in that grouping of teams, games will likely be toss ups all season.

Ah so your "impression" is that the "middle of the pack" includes #37 Marquette and #161 DePaul. I guess if you consider a 124 spot gap (over 1/3 of D1 teams) to be "the middle of the pack" then yes they really are close together!

Maybe from UConn and possibly Creighton's perspective.

So #33 Creighton is in a tier with #2 UConn above #37 Marquette who is in the same tier as #161 DePaul?

Let's try to unpretzel you. You've seemed to acknowledge that the Big East is worse this year than last year. You've also seemed to acknowledge that by every metric/result other than your personal eye test, Marquette is better this season than last season. It is a fact that Marquette won 11 out of 19 conference games last season. So do you see how with the Big East being worse and Marquette being better and having 1 additional conference game this season, it might not be out of the realm of possibility that Marquette could win 12 Big East games this season?

[wadesworld]

No

So what you meant was...more potential easy wins are out there this year.  Got it.

[GoldenEagles03]

Ah so your "impression" is that the "middle of the pack" includes #37 Marquette and #161 DePaul. I guess if you consider a 124 spot gap (over 1/3 of D1 teams) to be "the middle of the pack" then yes they really are close together!

So #33 Creighton is in a tier with #2 UConn above #37 Marquette who is in the same tier as #161 DePaul?

Creighton COULD be in a tier with UCONN.  That remains to be seen, but I imagine they find a way to right the ship with the proven winners they brought back and be in that top tier.

As far as DePaul, they are the most banged up team in the league.  Any ranking both they and Villanova have at this point in the season should be taken with a grain of salt.  I trust Nova a whole lot more than DePaul but similar to last year, I don't think DePaul is 2 gimme games on the schedule.  IIRC we have lost each of the past 3 seasons to DePaul and have losses in 3 of the last 5 games.

[GoldenEagles03]

Ah so your "impression" is that the "middle of the pack" includes #37 Marquette and #161 DePaul. I guess if you consider a 124 spot gap (over 1/3 of D1 teams) to be "the middle of the pack" then yes they really are close together!

So #33 Creighton is in a tier with #2 UConn above #37 Marquette who is in the same tier as #161 DePaul?

Creighton COULD be in a tier with UCONN.  That remains to be seen, but I imagine they find a way to right the ship with the proven winners they brought back and be in that top tier.

As far as DePaul, they are the most banged up team in the league.  Any ranking both they and Villanova have at this point in the season should be taken with a grain of salt.  I trust Nova a whole lot more than DePaul but similar to last year, I don't think DePaul is 2 gimme games on the schedule.  IIRC we have lost each of the past 3 seasons to DePaul and have losses in 3 of the last 5 games.

https://twitter.com/jgtrends/status/1599800263228923904?t=AHVlDJH1kFCs3rs_DSRJcw&s=19

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That tweet doesn't show you what you think it does.

Here are the numbers it's displaying without the massive logos making it look they are close together:

4 UConn
*Gap*
22 Creighton
31 Xavier
37 Marquette
*Gap*
46 St. John's
52 Villanova
63 Seton Hall
*Gap*
75 Providence
86 Butler
93 DePaul
*Gap*
155 Georgetown

Here's the same data from this time last season (Cause again, this about your claim that MU has less freebies this season)
6 Villanova
*Gap*
24 UConn
32 Xavier
33 Seton Hall
*Gap*
54 Providence
55 St. John's
62 Creighton
*Gap*
77 Marquette
86 Butler
*Gap*
103 Georgetown
107 DePaul

So at the same time last year, we were in the 4th tier and only had one tier below us and the Big East was stronger top to bottom. This year we're in the second tier and the Big East is weaker top to bottom.

That's also using current KenPom data which is mostly data from last season at this point. Let's do the same exercise with data just from this season. First NET:

2 UConn
*Gap*
33 Creighton
37 Marquette
48 Xavier
*Gap*
63 Butler
71 St. John's
*Gap*
121 Seton Hall
145 Providence
160 Villanova
161 DePaul
*Gap*
250 Georgetown

Now T-Rank:
3 UConn
*Gap*
18 Marquette
29 Creighton
39 Xavier
*Gap*
55 Butler
68 Seton Hall
*Gap*
98 St. John's
*Gap*
120 Providence
126 Villanova
130 DePaul
*Gap*
183 Georgetown

Again, the only metric that you've supplied that supports your argument is your eye test.

And you're right, there's no such thing as a true freebie in conference play which is how DePaul has beaten us in the past. Bad teams beat good teams sometimes. And we will lose to a bad team at least once this year. And I'd bet that we win at least one or two that we are not supposed to win. That's irrelevant to this discussion. All I'm commenting on is your assertion that year's Big East is any way stronger than last year's version.

[GoldenEagles03]

That tweet doesn't show you what you think it does.

Here are the numbers it's displaying without the massive logos making it look they are close together:

4 UConn
*Gap*
22 Creighton
31 Xavier
37 Marquette
*Gap*
46 St. John's
52 Villanova
63 Seton Hall
*Gap*
75 Providence
86 Butler
93 DePaul
*Gap*
155 Georgetown

Here's the same data from this time last season (Cause again, this about your claim that MU has less freebies this season)
6 Villanova
*Gap*
24 UConn
32 Xavier
33 Seton Hall
*Gap*
54 Providence
55 St. John's
62 Creighton
*Gap*
77 Marquette
86 Butler
*Gap*
103 Georgetown
107 DePaul

So at the same time last year, we were in the 4th tier and only had one tier below us and the Big East was stronger top to bottom. This year we're in the second tier and the Big East is weaker top to bottom.

That's also using current KenPom data which is mostly data from last season at this point. Let's do the same exercise with data just from this season. First NET:

2 UConn
*Gap*
33 Creighton
37 Marquette
48 Xavier
*Gap*
63 Butler
71 St. John's
*Gap*
121 Seton Hall
145 Providence
160 Villanova
161 DePaul
*Gap*
250 Georgetown

Now T-Rank:
3 UConn
*Gap*
18 Marquette
29 Creighton
39 Xavier
*Gap*
55 Butler
68 Seton Hall
*Gap*
98 St. John's
*Gap*
120 Providence
126 Villanova
130 DePaul
*Gap*
183 Georgetown

Again, the only metric that you've supplied that supports your argument is your eye test.

And you're right, there's no such thing as a true freebie in conference play which is how DePaul has beaten us in the past. Bad teams beat good teams sometimes. And we will lose to a bad team at least once this year. And I'd bet that we win at least one or two that we are not supposed to win. That's irrelevant to this discussion. All I'm commenting on is your assertion that year's Big East is any way stronger than last year's version.

You don't read very well, because I haven't ever even still to this point said that the Big East is better, in fact...I have said it is worse.

[wadesworld]

You don't read very well, because I haven't ever even still to this point said that the Big East is better, in fact...I have said it is worse.

The Big East is worse but there are less easy wins.  Logical.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You don't read very well, because I haven't ever even still to this point said that the Big East is better, in fact...I have said it is worse.

I said "stronger in any way" to cover your "I'm not saying the Big East is stronger I'm just saying there are less easy wins" logic pretzel

[Lennys Tap]

The only way for those two things (the Big East is worse and there will be fewer “freebies” for MU) to be true would be if MU is also worse, probably markedly so. Thus far, anyway, the numbers say otherwise.

[DoctorV]

Metrics like kenpom have finally become commonly discussed in college basketball circles, but at this point of the season they are still using old data going back multiple years to inform their rankings. What if we could strip that data out and look at the Big East solely using the on-court results from this season? Cracked Sidewalks does just that to see what the early returns are on the league so far, what we got right (Hello, Butler), and what we got wrong (Oof, Villanova).

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/12/unbiased-data-big-east.html

Predicted to finish 9th in conference in the preseason poll.

Fast forward one month and a 6-3 record and MU has the best chance to challenge UConn for the top of the mountain according to metrics…

Do you see any fools gold here?

Perhaps the Purdue, Miss St, Wisconsin losses and the Baylor win are at the highest point they will be considered all season?
Meaning, those teams will come back to their expected norm as the season progresses?

Just playing devils advocate.

MU has looked much better than expected, but I’m not sure many would say “challenge for a conference title” better.

If nothing else this is good data because the early leg up makes me hopeful that 11/12 wins in conference would lock up a bid since in that scenario I doubt MU drops below the 50s in NET, even if some of its earlier season opponents revert to their preseason expectations

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Big East is worse but there are less easy wins.  Logical.

The only way for those two things (the Big East is worse and there will be fewer “freebies” for MU) to be true would be if MU is also worse, probably markedly so. Thus far, anyway, the numbers say otherwise.

When wades and Lenny agree, you know it must be so. There is no rarer seal of approval

[brewcity77]

Predicted to finish 9th in conference in the preseason poll.

Fast forward one month and a 6-3 record and MU has the best chance to challenge UConn for the top of the mountain according to metrics…

Do you see any fools gold here?

The only fools are the ones who thought this was a ninth place team. Never had any doubt this was a top-half Big East team and NCAA worthy.

Perhaps the Purdue, Miss St, Wisconsin losses and the Baylor win are at the highest point they will be considered all season?
Meaning, those teams will come back to their expected norm as the season progresses?

So don't believe the math or our lying eyes, believe what groupthink was telling us in September? Despite data and video evidence that proves that groupthink was in error?

Just playing devils advocate.

MU has looked much better than expected, but I’m not sure many would say “challenge for a conference title” better.

If nothing else this is good data because the early leg up makes me hopeful that 11/12 wins in conference would lock up a bid since in that scenario I doubt MU drops below the 50s in NET, even if some of its earlier season opponents revert to their preseason expectations

It's not what many would say, it's what the math to date says. I've consistently expected this to be a top-4 team in the league (I predicted third) and this season has reinforced that. I've certainly been surprised by UConn and Villanova, but as far as Marquette goes, my only surprise is not closing better in some of these games.

[muwarrior69]

The only fools are the ones who thought this was a ninth place team. Never had any doubt this was a top-half Big East team and NCAA worthy.

So don't believe the math or our lying eyes, believe what groupthink was telling us in September? Despite data and video evidence that proves that groupthink was in error?

It's not what many would say, it's what the math to date says. I've consistently expected this to be a top-4 team in the league (I predicted third) and this season has reinforced that. I've certainly been surprised by UConn and Villanova, but as far as Marquette goes, my only surprise is not closing better in some of these games.

Yeah, the only stat that really counts; who winds up with more points when the clock runs out. Really simple when you think about it.