[Cracked Sidewalks] Unbiased Data & the Big East

[brewcity77]

Metrics like kenpom have finally become commonly discussed in college basketball circles, but at this point of the season they are still using old data going back multiple years to inform their rankings. What if we could strip that data out and look at the Big East solely using the on-court results from this season? Cracked Sidewalks does just that to see what the early returns are on the league so far, what we got right (Hello, Butler), and what we got wrong (Oof, Villanova).

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/12/unbiased-data-big-east.html

[Shooter McGavin]

Interesting stuff.  Thanks Brew!   

[GoldenEagles03]

Per HilltopHoops on Twitter

"The NET rankings are out, and they are shocking for Georgetown. Here’s how they rank in the Big East.

2. UConn
33. Creighton
37. Marquette
48. Xavier
63. Butler
71. St. John's
121. Seton Hall
145. Providence
160. Villanova
161. DePaul
250. Georgetown 🤯🤮"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Per HilltopHoops on Twitter

"The NET rankings are out, and they are shocking for Georgetown. Here’s how they rank in the Big East.

2. UConn
33. Creighton
37. Marquette
48. Xavier
63. Butler
71. St. John's
121. Seton Hall
145. Providence
160. Villanova
161. DePaul
250. Georgetown 🤯🤮"

Looks like a lot of freebie wins for MU! 

[GoldenEagles03]

Looks like a lot of freebie wins for MU! 

Does it though? Based on these numbers we'd peg Nova as 2 easy wins, but we know they won't be.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Looks like a lot of freebie wins for MU! 

Trap games

[CountryRoads]

Per HilltopHoops on Twitter

"The NET rankings are out, and they are shocking for Georgetown. Here’s how they rank in the Big East.

2. UConn
33. Creighton
37. Marquette
48. Xavier
63. Butler
71. St. John's
121. Seton Hall
145. Providence
160. Villanova
161. DePaul
250. Georgetown 🤯🤮"

Badger game was a Quad 3 loss. Not good. We can’t afford losing to teams in that quadrant. It’ll be important to protect our home floor in conference play to avoid any more bad losses.

[rocky_warrior]

Isn't the unbiased data biased because there's not enough data?   

[mugrad_89]

I still think Villanova is going to be a solid - watched them beat Oklahoma on Saturday and Whitmore is going to be really hard to handle as he gets into game shape.

[GoldenEagles03]

I still think Villanova is going to be a solid - watched them beat Oklahoma on Saturday and Whitmore is going to be really hard to handle as he gets into game shape.

They will be just fine moving forward. Problem is, they've dug themselves a hole.  They'll have to be really good in Conference play.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Badger game was a Quad 3 loss. Not good. We can’t afford losing to teams in that quadrant. It’ll be important to protect our home floor in conference play to avoid any more bad losses.

Look on the bright side.  If Wisconsin remains a Q3 loss, they aren't making the tournament.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Isn't the unbiased data biased because there's not enough data?   

Yes

End of the day, MU needs the alphas to win these close, low tempo games. Kam tried to be that guy but Kolek and OMax stepped in and tried to take over (unsuccessfully). The team's identity is still evolving.

#COLE

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Does it though? Based on these numbers we'd peg Nova as 2 easy wins, but we know they won't be.

Even if that's true l, I still see 8 to 10 freebies based on these numbers alone (obviously you shouldn't just consider early NET numbers)

Also, I don't think Moore is coming back. I'm also not sure Whitmore is going to suit up this season.

The Big East is way down compared to last season.  It's okay to admit you had a bad take

[rocky_warrior]

I'm also not sure Whitmore is going to suit up this season.

Did he play in street clothes against Oklahoma?!?!?

[GoldenEagles03]

Did he play in street clothes against Oklahoma?!?!?

😂

[GoldenEagles03]

Even if that's true l, I still see 8 to 10 freebies based on these numbers alone (obviously you shouldn't just consider early NET numbers)

Also, I don't think Moore is coming back. I'm also not sure Whitmore is going to suit up this season.

The Big East is way down compared to last season.  It's okay to admit you had a bad take

Ok...

10 freebies.  Go .500 in the other 10 and we are 15-5.  That easy huh?

[Jay Bee]

Badger game was a Quad 3 loss. Not good. We can’t afford losing to teams in that quadrant. It’ll be important to protect our home floor in conference play to avoid any more bad losses.

But uw-Madison projects as a Q2 loss

[Newsdreams]

But uw-Madison projects as a Q2 loss

Losing to rodents feels like Q4 loss

[wadesworld]

Losing to rodents feels like Q4 loss

Always.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Did he play in street clothes against Oklahoma?!?!?

Whoops didn't see that he played against Oklahoma.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Ok...

10 freebies.  Go .500 in the other 10 and we are 15-5.  That easy huh?

No. I don't think we will go 15-5. If I was a betting man I would guess 13-7. 12-8 being second most likely.

But again, you were the one who said that the Big East this year is better than last year. That was a bad take. This is the worst Big East since it's inaugural year after reformation

[Jay Bee]

No. I don't think we will go 15-5. If I was a betting man I would guess 13-7. 12-8 being second most likely.

But again, you were the one who said that the Big East this year is better than last year. That was a bad take. This is the worst Big East since it's inaugural year after reformation

Its vs. it’s.

Good news is we have some** big win opportunities (eg, UCONN & Creighton x2 each). Bad news is… I’d probably be ok w going 1-3 in those.

#TBW

[GoldenEagles03]

No. I don't think we will go 15-5. If I was a betting man I would guess 13-7. 12-8 being second most likely.

But again, you were the one who said that the Big East this year is better than last year. That was a bad take. This is the worst Big East since it's inaugural year after reformation

I never said better.  You are just making false statements now.  I said there are less freebie wins.  The league is more slop in the middle which is now like teams 2-10 compared to the typical middle of like 5-9.  More slop doesn't mean better, in fact typically the opposite.

Creighton probably will right the ship and move that to teams 3-10, but point still stands.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I never said better.  You are just making false statements now.  I said there are less freebie wins.  The league is more slop in the middle which is now like teams 2-10 compared to the typical middle of like 5-9.  More slop doesn't mean better, in fact typically the opposite.

Creighton probably will right the ship and move that to teams 3-10, but point still stands.

Freebie wins are bad teams that good teams should win against. There are more of those this season than last season. To say otherwise is a bad take.

[GoldenEagles03]

Freebie wins are bad teams that good teams should win against. There are more of those this season than last season. To say otherwise is a bad take.

That's where we disagree because I'm under the impression that the middle of the pack is larger than it's been in the past meaning teams 3-10 are more similar than different.  So in that grouping of teams, games will likely be toss ups all season.

[wadesworld]

I never said better.  You are just making false statements now.  I said there are less freebie wins.  The league is more slop in the middle which is now like teams 2-10 compared to the typical middle of like 5-9.  More slop doesn't mean better, in fact typically the opposite.

Creighton probably will right the ship and move that to teams 3-10, but point still stands.

So the top is worse, but the bottom is roughly the same.  Which would mean there are more opportunities for easier wins, not less.

[GoldenEagles03]

So the top is worse, but the bottom is roughly the same.  Which would mean there are more opportunities for easier wins, not less.

Maybe from UConn and possibly Creighton's perspective.

[wadesworld]

Maybe from UConn and possibly Creighton's perspective.

That's not really calculating.  Are you saying this year's 10th best team is as good as last year's 4th best team was?

[GoldenEagles03]

That's not really calculating.  Are you saying this year's 10th best team is as good as last year's 4th best team was?

No

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's where we disagree because I'm under the impression that the middle of the pack is larger than it's been in the past meaning teams 3-10 are more similar than different.  So in that grouping of teams, games will likely be toss ups all season.

Ah so your "impression" is that the "middle of the pack" includes #37 Marquette and #161 DePaul. I guess if you consider a 124 spot gap (over 1/3 of D1 teams) to be "the middle of the pack" then yes they really are close together!

Maybe from UConn and possibly Creighton's perspective.

So #33 Creighton is in a tier with #2 UConn above #37 Marquette who is in the same tier as #161 DePaul?

Let's try to unpretzel you. You've seemed to acknowledge that the Big East is worse this year than last year. You've also seemed to acknowledge that by every metric/result other than your personal eye test, Marquette is better this season than last season. It is a fact that Marquette won 11 out of 19 conference games last season. So do you see how with the Big East being worse and Marquette being better and having 1 additional conference game this season, it might not be out of the realm of possibility that Marquette could win 12 Big East games this season?

[wadesworld]

No

So what you meant was...more potential easy wins are out there this year.  Got it.

[GoldenEagles03]

Ah so your "impression" is that the "middle of the pack" includes #37 Marquette and #161 DePaul. I guess if you consider a 124 spot gap (over 1/3 of D1 teams) to be "the middle of the pack" then yes they really are close together!

So #33 Creighton is in a tier with #2 UConn above #37 Marquette who is in the same tier as #161 DePaul?

Creighton COULD be in a tier with UCONN.  That remains to be seen, but I imagine they find a way to right the ship with the proven winners they brought back and be in that top tier.

As far as DePaul, they are the most banged up team in the league.  Any ranking both they and Villanova have at this point in the season should be taken with a grain of salt.  I trust Nova a whole lot more than DePaul but similar to last year, I don't think DePaul is 2 gimme games on the schedule.  IIRC we have lost each of the past 3 seasons to DePaul and have losses in 3 of the last 5 games.

[GoldenEagles03]

Ah so your "impression" is that the "middle of the pack" includes #37 Marquette and #161 DePaul. I guess if you consider a 124 spot gap (over 1/3 of D1 teams) to be "the middle of the pack" then yes they really are close together!

So #33 Creighton is in a tier with #2 UConn above #37 Marquette who is in the same tier as #161 DePaul?

Creighton COULD be in a tier with UCONN.  That remains to be seen, but I imagine they find a way to right the ship with the proven winners they brought back and be in that top tier.

As far as DePaul, they are the most banged up team in the league.  Any ranking both they and Villanova have at this point in the season should be taken with a grain of salt.  I trust Nova a whole lot more than DePaul but similar to last year, I don't think DePaul is 2 gimme games on the schedule.  IIRC we have lost each of the past 3 seasons to DePaul and have losses in 3 of the last 5 games.

https://twitter.com/jgtrends/status/1599800263228923904?t=AHVlDJH1kFCs3rs_DSRJcw&s=19

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That tweet doesn't show you what you think it does.

Here are the numbers it's displaying without the massive logos making it look they are close together:

4 UConn
*Gap*
22 Creighton
31 Xavier
37 Marquette
*Gap*
46 St. John's
52 Villanova
63 Seton Hall
*Gap*
75 Providence
86 Butler
93 DePaul
*Gap*
155 Georgetown

Here's the same data from this time last season (Cause again, this about your claim that MU has less freebies this season)
6 Villanova
*Gap*
24 UConn
32 Xavier
33 Seton Hall
*Gap*
54 Providence
55 St. John's
62 Creighton
*Gap*
77 Marquette
86 Butler
*Gap*
103 Georgetown
107 DePaul

So at the same time last year, we were in the 4th tier and only had one tier below us and the Big East was stronger top to bottom. This year we're in the second tier and the Big East is weaker top to bottom.

That's also using current KenPom data which is mostly data from last season at this point. Let's do the same exercise with data just from this season. First NET:

2 UConn
*Gap*
33 Creighton
37 Marquette
48 Xavier
*Gap*
63 Butler
71 St. John's
*Gap*
121 Seton Hall
145 Providence
160 Villanova
161 DePaul
*Gap*
250 Georgetown

Now T-Rank:
3 UConn
*Gap*
18 Marquette
29 Creighton
39 Xavier
*Gap*
55 Butler
68 Seton Hall
*Gap*
98 St. John's
*Gap*
120 Providence
126 Villanova
130 DePaul
*Gap*
183 Georgetown

Again, the only metric that you've supplied that supports your argument is your eye test.

And you're right, there's no such thing as a true freebie in conference play which is how DePaul has beaten us in the past. Bad teams beat good teams sometimes. And we will lose to a bad team at least once this year. And I'd bet that we win at least one or two that we are not supposed to win. That's irrelevant to this discussion. All I'm commenting on is your assertion that year's Big East is any way stronger than last year's version.

[GoldenEagles03]

That tweet doesn't show you what you think it does.

Here are the numbers it's displaying without the massive logos making it look they are close together:

4 UConn
*Gap*
22 Creighton
31 Xavier
37 Marquette
*Gap*
46 St. John's
52 Villanova
63 Seton Hall
*Gap*
75 Providence
86 Butler
93 DePaul
*Gap*
155 Georgetown

Here's the same data from this time last season (Cause again, this about your claim that MU has less freebies this season)
6 Villanova
*Gap*
24 UConn
32 Xavier
33 Seton Hall
*Gap*
54 Providence
55 St. John's
62 Creighton
*Gap*
77 Marquette
86 Butler
*Gap*
103 Georgetown
107 DePaul

So at the same time last year, we were in the 4th tier and only had one tier below us and the Big East was stronger top to bottom. This year we're in the second tier and the Big East is weaker top to bottom.

That's also using current KenPom data which is mostly data from last season at this point. Let's do the same exercise with data just from this season. First NET:

2 UConn
*Gap*
33 Creighton
37 Marquette
48 Xavier
*Gap*
63 Butler
71 St. John's
*Gap*
121 Seton Hall
145 Providence
160 Villanova
161 DePaul
*Gap*
250 Georgetown

Now T-Rank:
3 UConn
*Gap*
18 Marquette
29 Creighton
39 Xavier
*Gap*
55 Butler
68 Seton Hall
*Gap*
98 St. John's
*Gap*
120 Providence
126 Villanova
130 DePaul
*Gap*
183 Georgetown

Again, the only metric that you've supplied that supports your argument is your eye test.

And you're right, there's no such thing as a true freebie in conference play which is how DePaul has beaten us in the past. Bad teams beat good teams sometimes. And we will lose to a bad team at least once this year. And I'd bet that we win at least one or two that we are not supposed to win. That's irrelevant to this discussion. All I'm commenting on is your assertion that year's Big East is any way stronger than last year's version.

You don't read very well, because I haven't ever even still to this point said that the Big East is better, in fact...I have said it is worse.

[wadesworld]

You don't read very well, because I haven't ever even still to this point said that the Big East is better, in fact...I have said it is worse.

The Big East is worse but there are less easy wins.  Logical.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You don't read very well, because I haven't ever even still to this point said that the Big East is better, in fact...I have said it is worse.

I said "stronger in any way" to cover your "I'm not saying the Big East is stronger I'm just saying there are less easy wins" logic pretzel

[Lennys Tap]

The only way for those two things (the Big East is worse and there will be fewer “freebies” for MU) to be true would be if MU is also worse, probably markedly so. Thus far, anyway, the numbers say otherwise.

[DoctorV]

Metrics like kenpom have finally become commonly discussed in college basketball circles, but at this point of the season they are still using old data going back multiple years to inform their rankings. What if we could strip that data out and look at the Big East solely using the on-court results from this season? Cracked Sidewalks does just that to see what the early returns are on the league so far, what we got right (Hello, Butler), and what we got wrong (Oof, Villanova).

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/12/unbiased-data-big-east.html

Predicted to finish 9th in conference in the preseason poll.

Fast forward one month and a 6-3 record and MU has the best chance to challenge UConn for the top of the mountain according to metrics…

Do you see any fools gold here?

Perhaps the Purdue, Miss St, Wisconsin losses and the Baylor win are at the highest point they will be considered all season?
Meaning, those teams will come back to their expected norm as the season progresses?

Just playing devils advocate.

MU has looked much better than expected, but I’m not sure many would say “challenge for a conference title” better.

If nothing else this is good data because the early leg up makes me hopeful that 11/12 wins in conference would lock up a bid since in that scenario I doubt MU drops below the 50s in NET, even if some of its earlier season opponents revert to their preseason expectations

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Big East is worse but there are less easy wins.  Logical.

The only way for those two things (the Big East is worse and there will be fewer “freebies” for MU) to be true would be if MU is also worse, probably markedly so. Thus far, anyway, the numbers say otherwise.

When wades and Lenny agree, you know it must be so. There is no rarer seal of approval

[brewcity77]

Predicted to finish 9th in conference in the preseason poll.

Fast forward one month and a 6-3 record and MU has the best chance to challenge UConn for the top of the mountain according to metrics…

Do you see any fools gold here?

The only fools are the ones who thought this was a ninth place team. Never had any doubt this was a top-half Big East team and NCAA worthy.

Perhaps the Purdue, Miss St, Wisconsin losses and the Baylor win are at the highest point they will be considered all season?
Meaning, those teams will come back to their expected norm as the season progresses?

So don't believe the math or our lying eyes, believe what groupthink was telling us in September? Despite data and video evidence that proves that groupthink was in error?

Just playing devils advocate.

MU has looked much better than expected, but I’m not sure many would say “challenge for a conference title” better.

If nothing else this is good data because the early leg up makes me hopeful that 11/12 wins in conference would lock up a bid since in that scenario I doubt MU drops below the 50s in NET, even if some of its earlier season opponents revert to their preseason expectations

It's not what many would say, it's what the math to date says. I've consistently expected this to be a top-4 team in the league (I predicted third) and this season has reinforced that. I've certainly been surprised by UConn and Villanova, but as far as Marquette goes, my only surprise is not closing better in some of these games.

[muwarrior69]

The only fools are the ones who thought this was a ninth place team. Never had any doubt this was a top-half Big East team and NCAA worthy.

So don't believe the math or our lying eyes, believe what groupthink was telling us in September? Despite data and video evidence that proves that groupthink was in error?

It's not what many would say, it's what the math to date says. I've consistently expected this to be a top-4 team in the league (I predicted third) and this season has reinforced that. I've certainly been surprised by UConn and Villanova, but as far as Marquette goes, my only surprise is not closing better in some of these games.

Yeah, the only stat that really counts; who winds up with more points when the clock runs out. Really simple when you think about it.