[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette Dreams and Nightmares

[brewcity77]

Selection looks (mostly) secure, so today we dig into a handful of potential first weekend matchups and look at who Marquette might want to see and who they want to avoid at all costs. We also have the updated S-Curve.

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/03/marquette-dreams-and-nightmares.html?m=1

[mu_eyeballs]

Honest question how does Hall have 8 spots on uson the S curve?  We have nearly identical NET, better wins and better SOS?

[DoctorV]

Great work as always.

I was actually going to pick the same knit as the guy that already posted.

How in any conceivable S Curve can SH be ahead of MU?

Similar computer numbers (though SH is slightly better)

MU swept them head to head

MU also has 3 better wins (or higher seeded) than their best on top of the head to head sweep.

I know that the committee looks at the resumes as a whole but if you look at those two head to head MU is the 7 and SH is the 9 imo

[brewcity77]

The best analogue for seeding is taking the resume metric average and computer metric average, then averaging those. So...

Seton Hall resume (KPI, SOR): 32.5
Seton Hall metric (BPI, Pom, Sag): 31.7
Seton Hall R+M Avg: 32.1

Marquette resume: 36
Marquette metric: 45.7
Marquette R+M Avg: 40.85

Teams line up within one seed line of that R+M number 85% of the time. So what I do on my spreadsheet, after selecting teams, is sort by R+M and batch teams into groups of 4 to represent all the seed lines. An 8-spot gap is pretty clearly about a 2-line difference (4 per line).

This is why I care about margin of victory in every game. Not because I'm a gambler or want to run up scores, but because it's a huge factor in seeding.

[Sturgeon General Warrior]

You said the ceiling for Marquette is likely a 7 seed. What would it take for Marquette to get there? Does beating Creighton give us a chance or would it be wins over Creighton and Providence?

[fjm]

You said the ceiling for Marquette is likely a 7 seed. What would it take for Marquette to get there? Does beating Creighton give us a chance or would it be wins over Creighton and Providence?

So as brew has mentioned a boatload. Most of the seeding is done by the end of today. Now you may make incremental moves at best but we are who we are.

I think we are first or second 8 seed. Lock it in.

[Sturgeon General Warrior]

So as brew has mentioned a boatload. Most of the seeding is done by the end of today. Now you may make incremental moves at best but we are who we are.

I think we are first or second 8 seed. Lock it in.

An incremental move from the first 8 seed would be a 7 seed. You're saying that's not possible?

[brewcity77]

So as brew has mentioned a boatload. Most of the seeding is done by the end of today. Now you may make incremental moves at best but we are who we are.

I think we are first or second 8 seed. Lock it in.

There is some dispute here. I believe that selection is mostly based on what's happened to this point. I think teams might play themselves out on Wednesday (looking at you, Xavier) but I don't believe teams play their way in this week.

But Rocco Miller, who's among the best, believes that wins on Wednesday and Thursday can help. He points to Syracuse getting in over Louisville last year as an example, though I'm skeptical as it's just one data point.

Usually selection is Wednesday-Thursday, seeding is Friday-Saturday, then they build the bracket. For teams that are definitely in (like us) getting a few more wins can help because we're not worried about the selection part. I think beating Creighton would help. Beating Butler, not sure if they'll factor that in or not. Beating Nova likely won't move us either way.

[PGsHeroes32]

There is some dispute here. I believe that selection is mostly based on what's happened to this point. I think teams might play themselves out on Wednesday (looking at you, Xavier) but I don't believe teams play their way in this week.

But Rocco Miller, who's among the best, believes that wins on Wednesday and Thursday can help. He points to Syracuse getting in over Louisville last year as an example, though I'm skeptical as it's just one data point.

Usually selection is Wednesday-Thursday, seeding is Friday-Saturday, then they build the bracket. For teams that are definitely in (like us) getting a few more wins can help because we're not worried about the selection part. I think beating Creighton would help. Beating Butler, not sure if they'll factor that in or not. Beating Nova likely won't move us either way.

Butler over X and Prov is bold.