[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette's Quadrant Breakdown

[brewcity77]

It's a busy week, but we found a little time to break down Marquette's resume by Quadrant, while looking at what's left for the Golden Eagles. We have that, and a new S-Curve as we prepare for a guest appearance on the Delphi Bracketology podcast and the Top-16 Reveal coming Saturday.

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/02/marquettes-quadrant-breakdown.html

[brewcity77]

Joined Delphi Bracketology today to talk brackets, Top-16, and the bubble.

https://delphibracketology.com/bracket-u-special-edition/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bracket-u/id1472614937?i=1000551227735

[DoctorV]

Thanks again Brew.

I've stopped looking at the other brackets/seed projections because it's so much easier to look at the one that comes from our very own, especially when he's so accurate.

I'm not sure what your success rate was the last few years, but I know you've made me look smart on selection sunday, no pressure chief... I used to spend hours creating my own S curve and looking at all the data points but it's much easier to just look at yours.

One thing that jumped out at me is the B12- you have 4 teams as either a last 8 in or first 8 out. Then you have Iowa St as a 10 and TCU as a 9, so extremely uncomfortably in.
That's 6 of the 10 teams in the conference.
Oklahoma and Iowa St are 4-9 in conference!

Just shows how crazy good the computed numbers are for B12 teams and how good their OOC was. Looking specifically at Iowa St hurts my head
They won every OOC game with wins at Creighton, neutral v X and Memphis (Creighton and Memphis bubbly themselves).
Then they went 4-9 in conference and have 4/5 winnable games.
KenPom 41, NET 42.

If they win 4 of the next 5 they finish 8-10 and are likely still in I would imagine. If they win 3 they would be 7-11. I know they say conf records don't matter but that would be wild to get a team 4 games under .500 in conference play dancing.

I was also surprised to see Kansas State ahead of West Virginia in the pecking order, what a turnaround for those two programs. 

[brewcity77]

The Big 12 is a bit of a pain. Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Texas are all comfortable and fighting for protected seeds, but then it gets muddled.

One thing I'll point out, conference records are not on the Team Sheet. I think if Iowa State gets to 6-12 in the Big 12, they are a lock. Even if they are dead last in the conference. They have 8 Quadrant 1 wins and no bad losses. Here's the list of teams with more Q1 wins: Baylor (9). That's it. Iowa State's 13-0 non-con record and their body of work is almost certain to get them in. They also have 7 wins against my current field, which is an insanely high number compared to teams on the bubble.

The rest of the Big 12 is fuzzier, and personally I think it's more likely they get 6 in than 8 simply because at some point, record catches up with you. TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia probably all need to get to at least 18 wins, more likely 19 to feel safe, and with their schedules and who they play, it's unlikely they all get there (especially as TCU & WVU's two best win opportunities left are against each other).

Best advice, when it comes to a league like that, ignore conference standings. Resume is the totality of what you did and how that compares to the 317 teams eligible for at-large bids, not how it compares to the small handful of teams in your league.

[TallTitan34]

Iowa has a garbage resume and are 0-5 in Q1.  Yet firmly in. 

[brewcity77]

Iowa has a garbage resume and are 0-5 in Q1.  Yet firmly in.

Their quality metrics are really propping them up and no one with their NET has ever been left out, but they are definitely a team I think are closer to out than most think. I have them as my last 8-seed and hate having them there. Their quality metrics indicate they should be a 5, their average metrics indicate a 7, but their resume metrics would have them on the bubble. If they don't get one of the surefire tourney teams left on their resume (@ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois) I could see them being the team everyone is shocked got left out come Selection Sunday, or playing UNC in Dayton.

[NCMUFan]

Interesting Davidson first four out when they are leading their conference and best record in Atlantic 10.

[brewcity77]

Interesting Davidson first four out when they are leading their conference and best record in Atlantic 10.

That's because I don't consider them to be leading their conference, Dayton is.

I made the change this year to use the highest NET team as my auto-bid winners instead of the conference standings leader. The reason is because quite often, you will see a team who isn't the consensus "best" team on top of the standings (see: Providence). In addition, unbalanced schedules and cancellations further exacerbates who ends up in "first" place. Since the auto-bid goes to the conference tourney winner, which the percentages say will go in order of predictive metrics rather than conference standing, I use the NCAA's own predictive tool to determine my champs.

It's a bit of an outlier, but I've found it forces me to compare the actual best resumes when it comes to both the general field and also the 12-16 seeded autobid teams. It also allows me to evaluate more bubble teams because you don't end up with bid thieves when a Loyola or Murray type find themselves a half-game back in the standings for a day.

[We R Final Four]

Thank you Brew—will be interesting to follow the ISU situation.