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* Next up: NC State

Marquette
81
Marquette vs

NC State

Date/Time: Mar 29, 2024, 6:09 pm
TV: CBS
Schedule for 2023-24
Colorado
77

Author Topic: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn  (Read 5625 times)

oldwarrior81

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #25 on: February 07, 2022, 07:58:32 PM »
I think it goes down from 5.5 - wouldn't surprise me to see it fall all the way to 4 tomorrow.  Just my hunch.  Wager at your own risk!

A few more have moved up to 6 tonight.
moneyline @ +200

btw, MU has covered the last 9 games against the spread.

Don't forget that Morsell sat out the earlier game with UConn.

RushmoreAcademy

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #26 on: February 07, 2022, 09:52:45 PM »

bradforster

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #27 on: February 07, 2022, 09:57:48 PM »
The line is now UCONN minus seven.  The money is pouring in on the Huskies. 

MU82

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #28 on: February 07, 2022, 10:05:45 PM »
Considering they beat us by more at our place,  it's the right line.  Doesn't mean we won't stomp them though

I wouldn't think the last game would have anything to do with anything. We've been playing very well for a month solid; they've been meh.

I'd bet ... but I don't want to jinx us, because we've won all these games with me only wishing I had bet!

We now have been underdogs in 14 of our last 16 games; only favored vs. DeP and GT in that stretch. We've only been the favorites in 6 games all season.

That's cool. It suits us!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Elonsmusk

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #29 on: February 08, 2022, 09:19:44 AM »
The line is now UCONN minus seven.  The money is pouring in on the Huskies.

My site had MU +7 this AM at -120.  Then +6.5 at -110.  Now at +6.0 at -115.  I bet the +6.5 the heaviest at $125.  Bet $40 on the MU + 7.  Moneyline is now +210 on my site.  Rolling $40 on the ML.

Still surprised MU is a 6-7 point underdog here.

Goose

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #30 on: February 08, 2022, 09:43:45 AM »
Guess I have to play with the points and Money line.

mubb3434

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #31 on: February 08, 2022, 10:17:20 AM »
Not a huge impact player, but Akok Akok is out for Uconn per Rothstein.

MDMU04

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #32 on: February 08, 2022, 10:33:44 AM »
Got the boys last night +6.5.  That seems like a lot of points, don't really feel like a mush here.  The trend is your friend.
"They call me eccentric. They used to call me nuts. I haven't changed." - Al McGuire

MDMU04

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #33 on: February 08, 2022, 10:36:25 AM »
Double post...but looking through the game props for halftime/full time score.  Tie/MU victory is currently +3500, that might be worth a sprinkle if you're interested.
"They call me eccentric. They used to call me nuts. I haven't changed." - Al McGuire

jfp61

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #34 on: February 08, 2022, 10:41:19 AM »
Advanced numbers hate us in this game. bet smartly

JakeBarnes

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2022, 10:41:25 AM »
Not a huge impact player, but Akok Akok is out for Uconn per Rothstein.

Lose some height and rebounding. While not a volume 3pt guy, he does shoot 46% in limited shots. Certainly helps us-- he had 6 rebounds and 6 pts against us last time.
Assume what I say should be in teal if it doesn't pass the smell test for you.


Marquette4life

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #36 on: February 08, 2022, 10:49:41 AM »
Advanced numbers hate us in this game. bet smartly
I noticed this too. Numbers have been off because of the beginning of the year and are still catching up. We lost by single digits last time and didn’t have morsell and were half of the team we are today

avid1010

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #37 on: February 08, 2022, 10:49:57 AM »
Sharp money has repeatedly been against MU and CLV is on UCONN in this one.  I don't make my own picks...but get them from 3 guys who have hit 54%+ for years.  I've had four bets on MU games this year (which is rare) and all four were against MU...all four lost.  MU is that team this year and it's wonderful.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2022, 11:11:19 AM »
I think the strategy here is to put O-Max on Cole, use his length to bother Cole into bad shots. Put Morsell on Martin. He's strong enough the Martin won't be able to bully him and he should be able to limit Martin pretty well. Kolek will need to handle Andre Jackson which could be a challenge given Jackson superior strength and athleticism, but if he beats you so be it.

I think maybe we see Lewis try to cover Sanogo. Lewis stronger than Kur/Oso and it frees Kur/Oso for the block from the help side if Sanogo tries to back Lewis down. Biggest concern with that strategy is Lewis being word down on defense and not being effective on offense or picking up cheap fouls. Key to tonight is not letting Sanogo get 3 or 4 shots a trip.
TAMU

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BM1090

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #39 on: February 08, 2022, 11:12:34 AM »
Ya..  A few years ago in Vegas I bet $25 on a college basketball parlay and it's just not for me.  Plus watching gamblers there is super depressing.

Good to realize it isn't for you. I gamble pretty large amounts when in Vegas or at in-person books, don't get the same rush when betting online.

Agree that watching gamblers lose money they clearly cannot afford to lose is very depressing.

mubb3434

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #40 on: February 08, 2022, 11:13:46 AM »
I noticed this too. Numbers have been off because of the beginning of the year and are still catching up. We lost by single digits last time and didn’t have morsell and were half of the team we are today

I think the Sanogo matchup is terrible for us. If we can somehow get him in foul trouble early I like our chances. If not, I expect Uconn to dominate the offensive boards (#2 in the country per Kenpom). I like Uconn by 10 tonight. This game checks all of the boxes of staying away and that vegas line is so trappy. Hope I'm wrong!

muwarrior69

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #41 on: February 08, 2022, 11:24:10 AM »
I guess the AP/Coaches rankings don't mean much in Vegas.

MU82

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #42 on: February 08, 2022, 11:26:01 AM »
I think the Sanogo matchup is terrible for us. If we can somehow get him in foul trouble early I like our chances. If not, I expect Uconn to dominate the offensive boards (#2 in the country per Kenpom). I like Uconn by 10 tonight. This game checks all of the boxes of staying away and that vegas line is so trappy. Hope I'm wrong!

Not taking a shot at you at all, genuinely curious: How have your other Marquette picks been?

I ask because if you're, like, 18-5 on them I'm listening; but if you're 5-18 ...
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Uncle Rico

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #43 on: February 08, 2022, 11:26:20 AM »
I guess the AP/Coaches rankings don't mean much in Vegas.

Nor should it
“This is bar none atrocious.  Mitchell cannot shoot either.  What a pile of dung”

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #44 on: February 08, 2022, 11:53:40 AM »
This was always the other game aside from at Nova(which we already proved wrong) in conference that I felt we had no shot to win.

UCONN is a really tough match up.

With how we are playing though? No shot is long out the window. That was at the start of conference play.

I still am not confident in a win tonight and actually still see this finally being a game we don't cover. But ive already been wrong before, and will definitely no longer be shocked.

Hope we pull it out!
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

We R Final Four

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #45 on: February 08, 2022, 12:23:40 PM »
I think the strategy here is to put O-Max on Cole, use his length to bother Cole into bad shots. Put Morsell on Martin. He's strong enough the Martin won't be able to bully him and he should be able to limit Martin pretty well. Kolek will need to handle Andre Jackson which could be a challenge given Jackson superior strength and athleticism, but if he beats you so be it.

I think maybe we see Lewis try to cover Sanogo. Lewis stronger than Kur/Oso and it frees Kur/Oso for the block from the help side if Sanogo tries to back Lewis down. Biggest concern with that strategy is Lewis being word down on defense and not being effective on offense or picking up cheap fouls. Key to tonight is not letting Sanogo get 3 or 4 shots a trip.
I would like to see this tonight, and I think we will—-for the opening minutes or so. When Kam or Stevie comes in assignment will change.
One thing I don’t understand is….”If Jackson beats you, so be it.” The one thing I have seen from Shaka is….if someone beats you…..you are most likely coming out of the game. Shaka certainly doesn’t share the so be it approach. Now if he said you missed a few shots in a row he may say ‘so be it’ but not on D.

mubb3434

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #46 on: February 08, 2022, 12:37:35 PM »
Not taking a shot at you at all, genuinely curious: How have your other Marquette picks been?

I ask because if you're, like, 18-5 on them I'm listening; but if you're 5-18 ...

For the last 7 games, I thought we would lose at Nova, at Seton Hall and home to Nova (slightly). Expected wins everywhere else including at Providence. I'm more so of an optimist for this MU team, but just don't have a good feeling about tonight. After tonight, I think we go 5-1 to close out the year.

LAZER

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #47 on: February 08, 2022, 12:44:39 PM »
I think the Sanogo matchup is terrible for us. If we can somehow get him in foul trouble early I like our chances. If not, I expect Uconn to dominate the offensive boards (#2 in the country per Kenpom). I like Uconn by 10 tonight. This game checks all of the boxes of staying away and that vegas line is so trappy. Hope I'm wrong!
Interestingly UConn had it's lowest OR% game of the season against MU.

MU82

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2022, 12:48:18 PM »
For the last 7 games, I thought we would lose at Nova, at Seton Hall and home to Nova (slightly). Expected wins everywhere else including at Providence. I'm more so of an optimist for this MU team, but just don't have a good feeling about tonight. After tonight, I think we go 5-1 to close out the year.

Thanks for sharing that. Those were all reasonable games to pick against Marquette. After the win at Nova, I stopped being surprised by anything this team does. I think we've totally earned our top-20 ranking, and I honestly believe we have a shot at the Final Four.

I'm not betting on tonight's game, but I say we wear 'em down and win. We'd better hit some 3s, though. If we only make 5, like we did last time, it'll making winning a lot more difficult.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Smokin' Jae

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Re: Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn
« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2022, 12:52:55 PM »
I just don’t understand how Vegas cannot get Marquette right.

I know it’s mostly based on betting trends to get even money on both sides, but even so, they’ve been so off for a month now.

Well, not exactly. More often than not vegas plays a side in a game (if you look at money bet %'s, they are very rarely 50-50) So it's very possible that vegas has figured out MU but the betting public has not and they are looking to exploit that.