Marquette opens +5.5 vs. Uconn

[BM1090]

Moneyline +180

[bradforster]

Marquette has opened as a six point underdog at UCONN tomorrow night.  The team continues to get very little love from the oddsmakers. 

[MuggsyB]

Wow....just wow.  No respect whatsoever.  Let's just go out and pummel UCONN before dominating and disposing of Butler.  MU is 100% fully capable of another hammer week and proving the critics wrong. 

[PGsHeroes32]

Wow....just wow.  No respect whatsoever.  Let's just go out and pummel UCONN before dominating and disposing of Butler.  MU is 100% fully capable of another hammer week and proving the critics wrong.

We bringing the medieval weaponry this week?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Boiling oil

[MU24]

when was the last time MU was favored in a game? Everytime I seem to check the ESPN gamecast screen pre-game it has always seemed 60-70% in favor of the opponent than MU.

[MuggsyB]

We bringing the medieval weaponry this week?

We have the weapons, that's my ultimate point.  I assume all of us here are for unloading our arsenal with zero mercy, and wicked accuracy, for 40 mins tomorrow.  It's time for GE to break out.

[Shooter McGavin]

I’m in again.  This seems too easy.  What are the book makers missing?

[Daniel]

This will be a tough game .   They beat us at home.   But…..Marquette can win this one.   Let’s Go Marquette!

[Newsdreams]

We have the weapons, that's my ultimate point.  I assume all of us here are for unloading our arsenal with zero mercy, and wicked accuracy, for 40 mins tomorrow.  It's time for GE to break out.

Shock and awe!

[warriorchick]

If you think the line is wrong, don't gripe. Wager.

[rocky_warrior]

If you think the line is wrong, don't gripe. Wager.

You forget where you are?

[Elonsmusk]

Wow....just wow.  No respect whatsoever.  Let's just go out and pummel UCONN before dominating and disposing of Butler.  MU is 100% fully capable of another hammer week and proving the critics wrong. 

Has nothing to do with not being "respected."  Vegas sets the line basically off of Ken Pom predictions.  He predicts a UCONN win 73-69..albeit only a 4 point loss versus 5.5.

That said I'm going heavy on the +5.5 and will also bet the moneyline for 1/3rd of my +5.5 bet.

[Shooter McGavin]

Has nothing to do with not being "respected."  Vegas sets the line basically off of Ken Pom predictions.  He predicts a UCONN win 73-69..albeit only a 4 point loss versus 5.5.

That said I'm going heavy on the +5.5 and will also bet the moneyline for 1/3rd of my +5.5 bet.

Elon, in your opinion will this line go up or down.  If you think 6.5 by tomorrow I’ll wait.

[JakeBarnes]

We have the weapons, that's my ultimate point.  I assume all of us here are for unloading our arsenal with zero mercy, and wicked accuracy, for 40 mins tomorrow.  It's time for GE to break out.

Break out the Trey-bouchet!!!! (release the Kraken voice)

[Elonsmusk]

Elon, in your opinion will this line go up or down.  If you think 6.5 by tomorrow I’ll wait.

I think it goes down from 5.5 - wouldn't surprise me to see it fall all the way to 4 tomorrow.  Just my hunch.  Wager at your own risk!

[MuggsyB]

If you think the line is wrong, don't gripe. Wager.

I don't gamble.  Doesn't suit my personality..

[Uncle Rico]

I don't gamble.  Doesn't suit my personality..

That’s good.  It’s a sin.

[Shooter McGavin]

I think it goes down from 5.5 - wouldn't surprise me to see it fall all the way to 4 tomorrow.  Just my hunch.  Wager at your own risk!

Just got +6 on draft kings

[warriorchick]

I don't gamble.  Doesn't suit my personality..

I am too cheap to do any significant gambling. I stop having fun once I am down more than $20.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Considering they beat us by more at our place,  it's the right line.  Doesn't mean we won't stomp them though

[MuggsyB]

I am too cheap to do any significant gambling. I stop having fun once I am down more than $20.

Ya..  A few years ago in Vegas I bet $25 on a college basketball parlay and it's just not for me.  Plus watching gamblers there is super depressing. 

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

You forget where you are?

All aboard the scoop bluster bus

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I just don’t understand how Vegas cannot get Marquette right.

I know it’s mostly based on betting trends to get even money on both sides, but even so, they’ve been so off for a month now.

[rocket surgeon]

put a C-note on the warriors getting 5.5 on fanduel  i can only do this when i'm in Az.  in wisco it's a bozo no-no

[oldwarrior81]

I think it goes down from 5.5 - wouldn't surprise me to see it fall all the way to 4 tomorrow.  Just my hunch.  Wager at your own risk!

A few more have moved up to 6 tonight.
moneyline @ +200

btw, MU has covered the last 9 games against the spread.

Don't forget that Morsell sat out the earlier game with UConn.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Shock and awe!

Shaka and awe.

[bradforster]

The line is now UCONN minus seven.  The money is pouring in on the Huskies. 

[MU82]

Considering they beat us by more at our place,  it's the right line.  Doesn't mean we won't stomp them though

I wouldn't think the last game would have anything to do with anything. We've been playing very well for a month solid; they've been meh.

I'd bet ... but I don't want to jinx us, because we've won all these games with me only wishing I had bet!

We now have been underdogs in 14 of our last 16 games; only favored vs. DeP and GT in that stretch. We've only been the favorites in 6 games all season.

That's cool. It suits us!

[Elonsmusk]

The line is now UCONN minus seven.  The money is pouring in on the Huskies.

My site had MU +7 this AM at -120.  Then +6.5 at -110.  Now at +6.0 at -115.  I bet the +6.5 the heaviest at $125.  Bet $40 on the MU + 7.  Moneyline is now +210 on my site.  Rolling $40 on the ML.

Still surprised MU is a 6-7 point underdog here.

[Goose]

Guess I have to play with the points and Money line.

[mubb3434]

Not a huge impact player, but Akok Akok is out for Uconn per Rothstein.

[MDMU04]

Got the boys last night +6.5.  That seems like a lot of points, don't really feel like a mush here.  The trend is your friend.

[MDMU04]

Double post...but looking through the game props for halftime/full time score.  Tie/MU victory is currently +3500, that might be worth a sprinkle if you're interested.

[jfp61]

Advanced numbers hate us in this game. bet smartly

[JakeBarnes]

Not a huge impact player, but Akok Akok is out for Uconn per Rothstein.

Lose some height and rebounding. While not a volume 3pt guy, he does shoot 46% in limited shots. Certainly helps us-- he had 6 rebounds and 6 pts against us last time.

[Marquette4life]

Advanced numbers hate us in this game. bet smartly

I noticed this too. Numbers have been off because of the beginning of the year and are still catching up. We lost by single digits last time and didn’t have morsell and were half of the team we are today

[avid1010]

Sharp money has repeatedly been against MU and CLV is on UCONN in this one.  I don't make my own picks...but get them from 3 guys who have hit 54%+ for years.  I've had four bets on MU games this year (which is rare) and all four were against MU...all four lost.  MU is that team this year and it's wonderful.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the strategy here is to put O-Max on Cole, use his length to bother Cole into bad shots. Put Morsell on Martin. He's strong enough the Martin won't be able to bully him and he should be able to limit Martin pretty well. Kolek will need to handle Andre Jackson which could be a challenge given Jackson superior strength and athleticism, but if he beats you so be it.

I think maybe we see Lewis try to cover Sanogo. Lewis stronger than Kur/Oso and it frees Kur/Oso for the block from the help side if Sanogo tries to back Lewis down. Biggest concern with that strategy is Lewis being word down on defense and not being effective on offense or picking up cheap fouls. Key to tonight is not letting Sanogo get 3 or 4 shots a trip.

[BM1090]

Ya..  A few years ago in Vegas I bet $25 on a college basketball parlay and it's just not for me.  Plus watching gamblers there is super depressing.

Good to realize it isn't for you. I gamble pretty large amounts when in Vegas or at in-person books, don't get the same rush when betting online.

Agree that watching gamblers lose money they clearly cannot afford to lose is very depressing.

[mubb3434]

I noticed this too. Numbers have been off because of the beginning of the year and are still catching up. We lost by single digits last time and didn’t have morsell and were half of the team we are today

I think the Sanogo matchup is terrible for us. If we can somehow get him in foul trouble early I like our chances. If not, I expect Uconn to dominate the offensive boards (#2 in the country per Kenpom). I like Uconn by 10 tonight. This game checks all of the boxes of staying away and that vegas line is so trappy. Hope I'm wrong!

[muwarrior69]

I guess the AP/Coaches rankings don't mean much in Vegas.

[MU82]

I think the Sanogo matchup is terrible for us. If we can somehow get him in foul trouble early I like our chances. If not, I expect Uconn to dominate the offensive boards (#2 in the country per Kenpom). I like Uconn by 10 tonight. This game checks all of the boxes of staying away and that vegas line is so trappy. Hope I'm wrong!

Not taking a shot at you at all, genuinely curious: How have your other Marquette picks been?

I ask because if you're, like, 18-5 on them I'm listening; but if you're 5-18 ...

[Uncle Rico]

I guess the AP/Coaches rankings don't mean much in Vegas.

Nor should it

[PGsHeroes32]

This was always the other game aside from at Nova(which we already proved wrong) in conference that I felt we had no shot to win.

UCONN is a really tough match up.

With how we are playing though? No shot is long out the window. That was at the start of conference play.

I still am not confident in a win tonight and actually still see this finally being a game we don't cover. But ive already been wrong before, and will definitely no longer be shocked.

Hope we pull it out!

[We R Final Four]

I think the strategy here is to put O-Max on Cole, use his length to bother Cole into bad shots. Put Morsell on Martin. He's strong enough the Martin won't be able to bully him and he should be able to limit Martin pretty well. Kolek will need to handle Andre Jackson which could be a challenge given Jackson superior strength and athleticism, but if he beats you so be it.

I think maybe we see Lewis try to cover Sanogo. Lewis stronger than Kur/Oso and it frees Kur/Oso for the block from the help side if Sanogo tries to back Lewis down. Biggest concern with that strategy is Lewis being word down on defense and not being effective on offense or picking up cheap fouls. Key to tonight is not letting Sanogo get 3 or 4 shots a trip.

I would like to see this tonight, and I think we will—-for the opening minutes or so. When Kam or Stevie comes in assignment will change.
One thing I don’t understand is….”If Jackson beats you, so be it.” The one thing I have seen from Shaka is….if someone beats you…..you are most likely coming out of the game. Shaka certainly doesn’t share the so be it approach. Now if he said you missed a few shots in a row he may say ‘so be it’ but not on D.

[mubb3434]

Not taking a shot at you at all, genuinely curious: How have your other Marquette picks been?

I ask because if you're, like, 18-5 on them I'm listening; but if you're 5-18 ...

For the last 7 games, I thought we would lose at Nova, at Seton Hall and home to Nova (slightly). Expected wins everywhere else including at Providence. I'm more so of an optimist for this MU team, but just don't have a good feeling about tonight. After tonight, I think we go 5-1 to close out the year.

[LAZER]

I think the Sanogo matchup is terrible for us. If we can somehow get him in foul trouble early I like our chances. If not, I expect Uconn to dominate the offensive boards (#2 in the country per Kenpom). I like Uconn by 10 tonight. This game checks all of the boxes of staying away and that vegas line is so trappy. Hope I'm wrong!

Interestingly UConn had it's lowest OR% game of the season against MU.

[MU82]

For the last 7 games, I thought we would lose at Nova, at Seton Hall and home to Nova (slightly). Expected wins everywhere else including at Providence. I'm more so of an optimist for this MU team, but just don't have a good feeling about tonight. After tonight, I think we go 5-1 to close out the year.

Thanks for sharing that. Those were all reasonable games to pick against Marquette. After the win at Nova, I stopped being surprised by anything this team does. I think we've totally earned our top-20 ranking, and I honestly believe we have a shot at the Final Four.

I'm not betting on tonight's game, but I say we wear 'em down and win. We'd better hit some 3s, though. If we only make 5, like we did last time, it'll making winning a lot more difficult.

[Smokin' Jae]

I just don’t understand how Vegas cannot get Marquette right.

I know it’s mostly based on betting trends to get even money on both sides, but even so, they’ve been so off for a month now.

Well, not exactly. More often than not vegas plays a side in a game (if you look at money bet %'s, they are very rarely 50-50) So it's very possible that vegas has figured out MU but the betting public has not and they are looking to exploit that.

[LAZER]

Well, not exactly. More often than not vegas plays a side in a game (if you look at money bet %'s, they are very rarely 50-50) So it's very possible that vegas has figured out MU but the betting public has not and they are looking to exploit that.

MU has covered 9 in a row and won outright as a dog in 6 in a row.  It doesn't appear that Vegas has figured out MU.

[wadesworld]

MU has covered 9 in a row and won outright as a dog in 6 in a row.  It doesn't appear that Vegas has figured out MU.

We were dogs at Providence and lost there (but did cover).

But if MU covers tonight, Vegas makes money.  More money is going towards UCONN, so if Marquette wins, Vegas wins.  That'd point towards Jae's point.

[BM1090]

We were dogs at Providence and lost there (but did cover).

But if MU covers tonight, Vegas makes money.  More money is going towards UCONN, so if Marquette wins, Vegas wins.  That'd point towards Jae's point.

I'm seeing 92% of money on MU.

[mubb3434]

Thanks for sharing that. Those were all reasonable games to pick against Marquette. After the win at Nova, I stopped being surprised by anything this team does. I think we've totally earned our top-20 ranking, and I honestly believe we have a shot at the Final Four.

I'm not betting on tonight's game, but I say we wear 'em down and win. We'd better hit some 3s, though. If we only make 5, like we did last time, it'll making winning a lot more difficult.

Agreed. I absolutely love this team and they are going to drain my bank account my wanting to travel to tournament sites in March. I hope that happens!

[PGsHeroes32]

MU has 7 losses this year. 6 of them on weekends.

We have only lost 1 time on a weeknight.

Unfortunately that 1 L was a Tuesday night to Uconn.

If we really want to take a deep dive on potential trends.

[MU82]

Agreed. I absolutely love this team and they are going to drain my bank account my wanting to travel to tournament sites in March. I hope that happens!

We'll be in Seattle during the first week of the NCAAT, so I've already announced that I'll be going to Portland if that's where Marquette goes. We were supposed to fly home on the Sunday of the second weekend but I changed it to Monday because, "I'm not gonna be stuck on some damn airplane while Marquette's playing for a shot at the Final Four!"

[Smokin' Jae]

MU has covered 9 in a row and won outright as a dog in 6 in a row.  It doesn't appear that Vegas has figured out MU.

Right, but that is not to say that Vegas (oddsmakers) have not figured out MU because it's possible they've been on our side the whole time. The opening lines are determined in attempt not to get equal 50-50 action amongst the betting public but more so equal action amongst betting sharps. When an opening line moves quickly it's in response to the sharps. What Vegas thinks is generally irrelevant to the opening line. But as the bets roll in they may play against the public based on what they think will happen.

[Elonsmusk]

Well horsecrap...those damn intentional foul FT's cost me my +7 and +6.5 bets.  Oh well..it was a heckuva a run winning 9 straight games on MU.

[Shooter McGavin]

Well horsecrap...those damn intentional foul FT's cost me my +7 and +6.5 bets.  Oh well..it was a heckuva a run winning 9 straight games on MU.

Yep.  I’m still up $400 on them this year.

[LAZER]

Right, but that is not to say that Vegas (oddsmakers) have not figured out MU because it's possible they've been on our side the whole time. The opening lines are determined in attempt not to get equal 50-50 action amongst the betting public but more so equal action amongst betting sharps. When an opening line moves quickly it's in response to the sharps. What Vegas thinks is generally irrelevant to the opening line. But as the bets roll in they may play against the public based on what they think will happen.

They want equal action on both sides so they can take the juice. They don’t pick sides.

[mubb3434]

We'll be in Seattle during the first week of the NCAAT, so I've already announced that I'll be going to Portland if that's where Marquette goes. We were supposed to fly home on the Sunday of the second weekend but I changed it to Monday because, "I'm not gonna be stuck on some damn airplane while Marquette's playing for a shot at the Final Four!"

That's awesome! I have a 12 hour radius rule...So hoping for Pitt and then I'll make the trip. Anything beyond 1st/2nd round is an automatic plane ticket.

[BM1090]

They want equal action on both sides so they can take the juice. They don’t pick sides.

They do in some cases.