MU +13.5 vs Nova

[Elonsmusk]

Just got MU +13.5 on Sportsbook.ag.  What are others thoughts on this game/line?  I like MU +13.5, but didn't go too heavy on the wager.  Just $100.  Did also throw $25 on MU on the Moneyline +670 which would = $167 win.

[dgies9156]

Somebody didn't get the message after Quad 1 wins against Seton Hall and Providence!

[Goose]

Elon

I am in on both as well.

[brewcity77]

Villanova is 42-1 in Big East games at the Finn since 2013-14. It's the toughest conference road game in the country, bar none. Further, they are really good at defending pick and roll, which is main focal point of our offense, so it's not just tough from a venue perspective but also from a matchup perspective. Their weakness is offensive rebounding and dealing with athletic scoring guards, neither of which are strengths of ours. Basically what we do well, they know how to stop, and what you need to do to beat them isn't what we do well.

If you want a reason for optimism, in the past two years (on the calendar) the two toughest road conference venues are Kansas at Phog Allen and Villanova at the Finn. The two teams are a combined 32-1 in home games. That 1 loss? Shaka Smart and Texas won at Kansas last year.

[NCMUFan]

Hoping for a non-UCLA, St. Bonnies, Wiscy type game and more like the other 15 games.

[Shooter McGavin]

I'm also in for $50 but stupidly didn't wait and bet last night at -12.5. 

[NCMUFan]

The only game that MU would not have made Score Point Differential +13.5 points is the St. Bonnies game.

[MDMU04]

This feels like a game that Nova covers.  The Pavilion is a house of horrors.

For reference, the point spread on last year's game in Philly was Villanova -11.

[Elonsmusk]

This feels like a game that Nova covers.  The Pavilion is a house of horrors.

For reference, the point spread on last year's game in Philly was Villanova -11.

Comparing a Shaka coached team to a Wojo coached team renders last year's result immaterial.  Could MU lose by more than 13?  Sure.  Will they lose by 32 tonight like last year's team?  I'd be shocked...and highly disappointed.

[MDMU04]

Comparing a Shaka coached team to a Wojo coached team renders last year's result immaterial.  Could MU lose by more than 13?  Sure.  Will they lose by 32 tonight like last year's team?  I'd be shocked...and highly disappointed.

I would take an MU team coached by Shaka over an MU team coached by Wojo 100 times out of 100. 

This team - with an objectively better in-game coach - is a bigger underdog in this game than last year's team by 3 points.

I think Nova wins by 15-20 points.  I would absolutely LOVE to be wrong.

[BM1090]

Staying away. Nova is the exact team that gives MU trouble. Hoping to be wrong.

[MarquetteDano]

The points intrigue me.  I can see us being within 10 points with 4 minutes to go.  However once you get late in the game with fouling and risking taking defense that can balloon to 15 easy.

Just does not feel like a lock at +13.5.  If you reverse that line based on a home game it would be +5.5.  I think I would take Marquette and the 5.5 points at home.

[#UnleashSean]

I want to bet that spread big time. I don't think Marquette loses by double digits. But on the other hand Wojo has me scared that Marquette always falls flat when they are on the cusp of being relative again.

[IL Warrior]

13.5 may seem like a huge number, but consider the outcomes of Villanova's home games this season:

11/9 vs Mount St. Mary's (-25.5)
W 91-51 (W by 40: ATS W)

11/16 vs Howard (-29.5)
W 100-81 (W by 19: ATS L)

12/4 vs Saint Joseph's (-22)
W 81-52 (W by 29: ATS W)

12/21 vs Xavier (-5.5)
W 71-58 (W by 13: ATS W)

1/5 vs Creighton (-10.5)
W 75-41 (W by 34: ATS W)

1/16 vs Butler (-15)
W 82-42 (W by 40: ATS W)

6-0 overall, 5-1 ATS, 29pt average margin of victory, covering the spread by an average of 11. Villanova has been unstoppable at home. Xavier has been the only team to lose by less than 19 at Villanova this year, and even they lost by 13.

[tower912]

This is not a dis of Marquette.   It is an acknowledgment that Villanova is really good at home.

[79Warrior]

Just got MU +13.5 on Sportsbook.ag.  What are others thoughts on this game/line?  I like MU +13.5, but didn't go too heavy on the wager.  Just $100.  Did also throw $25 on MU on the Moneyline +670 which would = $167 win.

Moneyline is the bet. Nice payday.

[TheREALwrk]

Got MU +14.

Let's win!

[Elonsmusk]

13.5 may seem like a huge number, but consider the outcomes of Villanova's home games this season:

11/9 vs Mount St. Mary's (-25.5)
W 91-51 (W by 40: ATS W)

11/16 vs Howard (-29.5)
W 100-81 (W by 19: ATS L)

12/4 vs Saint Joseph's (-22)
W 81-52 (W by 29: ATS W)

12/21 vs Xavier (-5.5)
W 71-58 (W by 13: ATS W)

1/5 vs Creighton (-10.5)
W 75-41 (W by 34: ATS W)

1/16 vs Butler (-15)
W 82-42 (W by 40: ATS W)

6-0 overall, 5-1 ATS, 29pt average margin of victory, covering the spread by an average of 11. Villanova has been unstoppable at home. Xavier has been the only team to lose by less than 19 at Villanova this year, and even they lost by 13.

This is some good (and concerning) info as it relates to my ber on MU. Pomroy adjusts for everything and we still are -12 in his projection. I'm still banking on the more recent trend of MU and our team jelling more as they continue to learn how to play together.

[DienerTime34]

Good luck to the bettors tonight. My prediction is MU battles their ass off for 35 minutes in what is mostly a 7-8 point deficit, then the wheels come off at the end & Nova covers.

[Uncle Rico]

This line is more about how dominant Nova has been the last 6 games.  4 double-digit wins and a sweep of Xavier.

I don't see it as insulting to Marquette as the game is in Philly.  It's an opportunity for Marquette to make a big statement.  Do so, and you won't see a line like that again this year

[WhiteTrash]

This line is more about how dominant Nova has been the last 6 games.  4 double-digit wins and a sweep of Xavier.

I don't see it as insulting to Marquette as the game is in Philly.  It's an opportunity for Marquette to make a big statement.  Do so, and you won't see a line like that again this year

Good points. I see a 20 pt. loss but still excited about Shaka. A win is a real game changer.

[MU82]

Obviously, I'm not objective when it comes to Marquette ... but that's a ton of freakin' points against a pretty darn good team that seems to have figured out a few things.

I don't look at it as an insult at all. I look at it as an opportunity!

[BM1090]

No expectations for tonight. Keep it within 20 so it doesn't hurt the metrics too much. If they play a close one I'd be thrilled. Or if they somehow pull off an upset...punch that dance card.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Shaka's got the boys amped. Kicking Nova's asses tonight.

[We R Final Four]

What's the O/U on Gillespie drawing a charge on a JLew in the block? 0.5? I'd take that over.
I'd take Nova as a team Over 2.5 charges drawn.....if there were such a bet.
Strongly dislike that style of play.