2023 Team Outlook

[The Equalizer]

https://theathletic.com/3726862/2022/10/26/basketball-recruiting-work-ethic/?source=user_shared_article

This article in the athletic defines in many ways the players Shaka and many other successful coaches are looking for (work ethic and competitiveness play a huge role). Self explains why many of his most successful players were from outside the top 100.  He looks for shooting and explosiveness with work ethic.  He’d rather have players that stay 2-3 years rather than one and dones.   Sounds exactly like Shaka’s recruiting and retaining philosophy at MU.

I went back 10 years, and over that time Self has never had fewer than 5 top 100 players on the roster, with as many as 10 with an average of 7.6.  He may have had some players outside the top 100 that have done well, but they've never been a majority of his roster. 

And whether his preference for players outside the top 100 informs his current recruiting preferences, I note that all three of his commits for 2023 are ranked in the top 100 (#35 Elmarko Jackson, #46 Chris Johnson, and #77 Jamari McDowell.

As far as staying away from one and dones, he's offered eighteen five-stars in the class of '23 and fourteen in the class of '24.  I don't buy that he'd turn all these players away if any picked Kansas
 
I'm not saying Self is full of crap, but consider the source here. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I went back 10 years, and over that time Self has never had fewer than 5 top 100 players on the roster, with as many as 10 with an average of 7.6.  He may have had some players outside the top 100 that have done well, but they've never been a majority of his roster. 

And whether his preference for players outside the top 100 informs his current recruiting preferences, I note that all three of his commits for 2023 are ranked in the top 100 (#35 Elmarko Jackson, #46 Chris Johnson, and #77 Jamari McDowell.

As far as staying away from one and dones, he's offered eighteen five-stars in the class of '23 and fourteen in the class of '24.  I don't buy that he'd turn all these players away if any picked Kansas
 
I'm not saying Self is full of crap, but consider the source here.

Self was good for about 1 one and done a year prior to 2019. In the four classes since, he's only landed 2 five stars, one was ranked #21, the other #20, so neither are for sure one and dones (Bryce Thompson was not a one and done, Gradey Dick is a FR this season so we'll see). So far in 2023, he's landed three four stars.

Maybe Self's lost his recruiting touch though with his unlimited NIL budget and coming off a championship that seems hard to believe. It's also possible he's taking the Jay Wright approach of getting as many of those guys ranked #20-#60 who are really good at basketball but still stay multiple seasons. That doesn't mean that he won't take a one and done here and there but I don't see a reason to believe that he's lying about preferring players who stay multiple seasons who match a specific criteria.

[The Equalizer]

Self was good for about 1 one and done a year prior to 2019. In the four classes since, he's only landed 2 five stars, one was ranked #21, the other #20, so neither are for sure one and dones (Bryce Thompson was not a one and done, Gradey Dick is a FR this season so we'll see). So far in 2023, he's landed three four stars.

So, he's landing fewer than he did before. Shouldn't we look at offers instead? Self controls how many offers he makes. He has no control over who accepts.   Or, at least not anymore.

Did you consider that maybe--just maybe--there were other factors that came about in 2019 that may have hurt Self's ability to land the highest quality players?  Hint: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2019/09/24/bill-self-kansas-ncaa-says-youre-cheater-and-wants-you-out/2426693001/

Five Star Players offered:
2013: 16 offers, landed 3
2014: 13 offers, landed 2
2015: 18 offers, landed 2
2016: 23 offers, landed 1
2017: 20 offers, landed 1
2018: 20 offers, landed 2
2019: 23 offers, landed 0
2020: 16 offers, landed 1
2021: 14 offers, landed 0
2022: 15 offers, landed 1
2023: 18 offers, landed 0 so far
2024: 14 offers, landed 0 so far

Hmm.  For a guy who claims to be most interested in 4- and 3-star players, he certainly offers a lot of five-stars.

And it's interesting that he never really backed off recruiting them. And just coincidentally started landing fewer of them beginning right about the time his name surfaced in the NCAA and FBI investigations into alleged cheating.

Maybe Self's lost his recruiting touch though with his unlimited NIL budget and coming off a championship that seems hard to believe.

And yet, when you look at the hard data, he's still offering five-star players at roughly the same rate he historically has. They just aren't saying yes as frequently as they used to.   

It is a puzzlement. 

It's also possible he's taking the Jay Wright approach of getting as many of those guys ranked #20-#60 who are really good at basketball but still stay multiple seasons. That doesn't mean that he won't take a one and done here and there but I don't see a reason to believe that he's lying about preferring players who stay multiple seasons who match a specific criteria.

This is really a non-statement--it's kind of like saying coaches prefer players with a bigger wingspan, or a higher vertical leap, or a better shooting touch. 

Would Self prefer a player to stay two or three years? Sure. Would he turn down Chet Holmgren in lieu of such a player?  Doubtful.
 
Unless you can find a quote that says Bill Self pulled offers from the likes of Jalen Suggs, Cade Cunningham, Chet Holmgren, Shaedon Sharpe, etc. simply because they were projected to be one-and-dones, then his actions aren't consistent with his words.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So, he's landing fewer than he did before. Shouldn't we look at offers instead? Self controls how many offers he makes. He has no control over who accepts.   Or, at least not anymore.

Did you consider that maybe--just maybe--there were other factors that came about in 2019 that may have hurt Self's ability to land the highest quality players?  Hint: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2019/09/24/bill-self-kansas-ncaa-says-youre-cheater-and-wants-you-out/2426693001/

Five Star Players offered:
2013: 16 offers, landed 3
2014: 13 offers, landed 2
2015: 18 offers, landed 2
2016: 23 offers, landed 1
2017: 20 offers, landed 1
2018: 20 offers, landed 2
2019: 23 offers, landed 0
2020: 16 offers, landed 1
2021: 14 offers, landed 0
2022: 15 offers, landed 1
2023: 18 offers, landed 0 so far
2024: 14 offers, landed 0 so far

Hmm.  For a guy who claims to be most interested in 4- and 3-star players, he certainly offers a lot of five-stars.

And it's interesting that he never really backed off recruiting them. And just coincidentally started landing fewer of them beginning right about the time his name surfaced in the NCAA and FBI investigations into alleged cheating.

And yet, when you look at the hard data, he's still offering five-star players at roughly the same rate he historically has. They just aren't saying yes as frequently as they used to.   

It is a puzzlement. 

This is really a non-statement--it's kind of like saying coaches prefer players with a bigger wingspan, or a higher vertical leap, or a better shooting touch. 

Would Self prefer a player to stay two or three years? Sure. Would he turn down Chet Holmgren in lieu of such a player?  Doubtful.
 
Unless you can find a quote that says Bill Self pulled offers from the likes of Jalen Suggs, Cade Cunningham, Chet Holmgren, Shaedon Sharpe, etc. simply because they were projected to be one-and-dones, then his actions aren't consistent with his words.

No you shouldn't look at offers for multiple reasons. First, just because a player finishes ranked as a five star doesn't mean that they were a 5-star when they were offered by a specific school. Second because no one publicly pulls offers and you know that. They just stop recruiting a player. An offer isn't set in stone, a player just can't call up a school and say you offered me you have to take me. Third, just because a player is a 5-star doesn't mean they are a one and done, especially those ranked outside the top 15. That's not to say that just because Self hasn't been landing one and dones that it for sure means he's not pursuing them as much. I already conceded that it could just be that he lost his recruiting chops. Personally, I think he's telling the truth here.

I don't agree with your premise that a coach wouldn't turn down a one and done in favor of a multi-year player. Would a coach turn down Chet Holmgren for Keeyan Itejere? No. Would a coach turn down Julian Philips (#13 ranked 2022 recruit offered by Kansas) for Gradey Dick (#20 ranked recruit landed by Kansas)? I think probably if they felt that Dick was a better fit ( ) and especially if Phillips was planning on going pro and Dick was planning on multiple years of college. I think it's even possible that a coach would turn down a Chet Holmgren type player in favor of guy like Gradey Dick if they knew that Holmgren was only there for a year and Dick would be there for 2 or 3. After all, Kansas didn't land Holmgren and in the end they won the Championship and Gonzaga got sent home early.

I don't know why you get all bristly when a coach says that he prefers multi-year players to one and dones. Surely you understand the advantage of having a player in your program for more than one year. It's really not that outrageous of a statement. It won't matter much longer anyway. One and dones will be a thing of the past soon enough.

[Shooter McGavin]

Equalizer,

I think your point is fair.  But he did have success just this past year with multiple year players. He also wasn’t the only coach in the article.  Overall I think it was a good read and  pointed toward, in general terms, what Shaka is doing.  Nothing more. 

[withoutbias]

No you shouldn't look at offers for multiple reasons. First, just because a player finishes ranked as a five star doesn't mean that they were a 5-star when they were offered by a specific school. Second because no one publicly pulls offers and you know that. They just stop recruiting a player. An offer isn't set in stone, a player just can't call up a school and say you offered me you have to take me. Third, just because a player is a 5-star doesn't mean they are a one and done, especially those ranked outside the top 15. That's not to say that just because Self hasn't been landing one and dones that it for sure means he's not pursuing them as much. I already conceded that it could just be that he lost his recruiting chops. Personally, I think he's telling the truth here.

I don't agree with your premise that a coach wouldn't turn down a one and done in favor of a multi-year player. Would a coach turn down Chet Holmgren for Keeyan Itejere? No. Would a coach turn down Julian Philips (#13 ranked 2022 recruit offered by Kansas) for Gradey Dick (#20 ranked recruit landed by Kansas)? I think probably if they felt that Dick was a better fit ( ) and especially if Phillips was planning on going pro and Dick was planning on multiple years of college. I think it's even possible that a coach would turn down a Chet Holmgren type player in favor of guy like Gradey Dick if they knew that Holmgren was only there for a year and Dick would be there for 2 or 3. After all, Kansas didn't land Holmgren and in the end they won the Championship and Gonzaga got sent home early.

I don't know why you get all bristly when a coach says that he prefers multi-year players to one and dones. Surely you understand the advantage of having a player in your program for more than one year. It's really not that outrageous of a statement. It won't matter much longer anyway. One and dones will be a thing of the past soon enough.

It’s not like those numbers are 2 five star players. Your point then might stand that maybe a kid blew up after the offer or maybe the five star was the 22nd ranked player.  Those numbers show he’s offering a majority of five stars out there. It’d take a hell of a lot of movement and/or telling a hell of a lot of REALLY good players “we’re going to offer you a scholarship but we’ll only actually accept you if players 50-100 all turn us down.” Self is clearly still going after the top end talent.

[Dr. Blackheart]

When is $Bill getting the ban hammer? Sean Miller is already cheating at his next job, McBuckets Sr. is picked to win the Big East and 6 Second Pitino is already on year 3 at Iona.

Chicos???

[wadesworld]

When is $Bill getting the ban hammer? Sean Miller is already cheating at his next job, McBuckets Sr. is picked to win the Big East and 6 Second Pitino is already on year 3 at Iona.

Chicos???

The FBI has their playbook so it's just a matter of if, not when.

[swoopem]

When is $Bill getting the ban hammer? Sean Miller is already cheating at his next job, McBuckets Sr. is picked to win the Big East and 6 Second Pitino is already on year 3 at Iona.

Chicos???

Same timing as when chicos “drops the other shoe” on Buzz

[The Equalizer]

Equalizer,

I think your point is fair.  But he did have success just this past year with multiple year players. He also wasn’t the only coach in the article.  Overall I think it was a good read and pointed toward, in general terms, what Shaka is doing.  Nothing more.

I have no complaints about comparisions to Beilein or Bennett as the featured coaches, and would agree that there are similarities to Bennet's and Shaka's approach to recruiting. Bo Ryan would have been a much better source than Bill Self for this article.

Self is just not a good example in this article, nor a good proxy for what Shaka is doing, given that his history has been to agressively court five-star players (~17+ offers per year) and constructs his roster with more than half from the ranks of the top 100 players (average of 6.7 of 13 scholarships). Yes, he may have had some succeful unranked players (6 over 20 years), but those players don't define Kansas success over the years. 

If that's their point, they may have well included perspectives of Calipari, Few, Williams and Krzyzewski on how unranked players have contriburted to their success over the years.

[WhiteTrash]

I wouldn't trust Self if he told me which day of the week it was.

[MU82]

I wouldn't trust Self if he told me which day of the week it was.

$$$-day.

[Uncle Rico]

I wouldn't trust Self if he told me which day of the week it was.

I’d take him at Marquette in a heartbeat

[WhiteTrash]

I’d take him at Marquette in a heartbeat

Maybe, but I seriously don't know how good he'd be if he had to follow the rules.

I could be talked into Self with MU running things like KU. 

[Hards Alumni]

Maybe, but I seriously don't know how good he'd be if he had to follow the rules.

I could be talked into Self with MU running things like KU. 

Following the rules has gotten us so far.

[GoldenEagles03]

https://twitter.com/MarquetteMBB/status/1587490957896867843?t=x3X3xvz3C1c3WdU8zoICMw&s=19

Jop looks significantly more mobile. Hopefully that helps him on the defensive end. Seems as though being a vocal leader is something he's working on too. Excited for where he could get to with his game.

[wadesworld]

https://twitter.com/MarquetteMBB/status/1587490957896867843?t=x3X3xvz3C1c3WdU8zoICMw&s=19

Jop looks significantly more mobile. Hopefully that helps him on the defensive end. Seems as though being a vocal leader is something he's working on too. Excited for where he could get to with his game.

I'd guess 93%+ of D1 college basketball players could dunk an uncontested breakaway opportunity.

[GoldenEagles03]

I'd guess 93%+ of D1 college basketball players could dunk an uncontested breakaway opportunity.

Who cares about the dunk?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Who cares about the dunk?

I mean, you posted it!

[Newsdreams]

Who cares about the dunk?

Ners

[GoldenEagles03]

I mean, you posted it!

I posted a video.

The post I made had 0 mention of a dunk.

[wadesworld]

I posted a video.

The post I made had 0 mention of a dunk.

I mean, you posted the video and your comment on it was that "Jop looks significantly more mobile."  Jop could've done that last year, and so could the vast majority of division 1 college basketball players.  Maybe Jop is "significantly more mobile."  But the video you used to show this was him running in a straight line and dunking it with nobody around him.

[GoldenEagles03]

I mean, you posted the video and your comment on it was that "Jop looks significantly more mobile."  Jop could've done that last year, and so could the vast majority of division 1 college basketball players.  Maybe Jop is "significantly more mobile."  But the video you used to show this was him running in a straight line and dunking it with nobody around him.

An uncontested dunk? Sure. Last year they were saying he struggled to get on the court because he was behind in the quickness and conditioning departments. This year we've seen clips of him running out on a fast break, driving past a defender for a reverse dunk, creating his own shots, and leading a defense in deflections. That's mobility he didn't show last year.

[bilsu]

So, he's landing fewer than he did before. Shouldn't we look at offers instead? Self controls how many offers he makes. He has no control over who accepts.   Or, at least not anymore.

Did you consider that maybe--just maybe--there were other factors that came about in 2019 that may have hurt Self's ability to land the highest quality players?  Hint: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2019/09/24/bill-self-kansas-ncaa-says-youre-cheater-and-wants-you-out/2426693001/

Five Star Players offered:
2013: 16 offers, landed 3
2014: 13 offers, landed 2
2015: 18 offers, landed 2
2016: 23 offers, landed 1
2017: 20 offers, landed 1
2018: 20 offers, landed 2
2019: 23 offers, landed 0
2020: 16 offers, landed 1
2021: 14 offers, landed 0
2022: 15 offers, landed 1
2023: 18 offers, landed 0 so far
2024: 14 offers, landed 0 so far

Hmm.  For a guy who claims to be most interested in 4- and 3-star players, he certainly offers a lot of five-stars.

And it's interesting that he never really backed off recruiting them. And just coincidentally started landing fewer of them beginning right about the time his name surfaced in the NCAA and FBI investigations into alleged cheating.

And yet, when you look at the hard data, he's still offering five-star players at roughly the same rate he historically has. They just aren't saying yes as frequently as they used to.   

It is a puzzlement. 

This is really a non-statement--it's kind of like saying coaches prefer players with a bigger wingspan, or a higher vertical leap, or a better shooting touch. 

Would Self prefer a player to stay two or three years? Sure. Would he turn down Chet Holmgren in lieu of such a player?  Doubtful.
 
Unless you can find a quote that says Bill Self pulled offers from the likes of Jalen Suggs, Cade Cunningham, Chet Holmgren, Shaedon Sharpe, etc. simply because they were projected to be one-and-dones, then his actions aren't consistent with his words.

I think it would be more accurate to look at players drafted. Kansas under Self clearly has had some very talented players.

[Jay Bee]

I think it would be more accurate to look at players drafted. Kansas under Self clearly has had some very talented players.

Yep. Like Tyler Self!!