Gotta beat Ole Miss!!

[Dish]

You're proving my point. Which is - no reputable book has posted a line. Which means the opening line hasn't come out yet per the common definition of the "opening line".

Have a great night. I'm losing time watching paint dry with this conversation.

[5DollarPitcher]

Have a great night. I'm losing time watching paint dry with this conversation.

You too bud. We'll reconvene when Vegas posts the opening line tomorrow!

[avid1010]

Spread is MU -4 and that's reputable...because you can wager on it.  Bookmaker is a great place to grab CLV value if you set your own spreads.  I'm not that talented...but I pay a guy that is...57% over 4 years.  I'm on Miss St -15 and Northern Iowa +13 tonight.

[Dish]

Yeah...you're betting -110 unless you are on overseas books (and those are few and far between) with reduced juice...52.4% to break even.  Enlighten me though...

I'm 100% confident in knowing what I meant with my quote, and with how I wager. Thank you for your concern though.

Making money=good! Losing money=bad. I'm sorry you interpreted it to mean something wayyyyyy different, but I greatly appreciate your concern for my betting well being.

Man, there are some really hot wagering takes on this board from a lot of smart guys. Hope life is good on your luxury yachts.

[5DollarPitcher]

Making money=good! Losing money=bad. I'm sorry you interpreted it to mean something wayyyyyy different, but I greatly appreciate your concern for my betting well being.

If you win 501 straight spread bets and lose 499 straight spread bets you've lost money at any traditional sportsbook.

Any bookie not taking vig is just a gambler - just like you.

[avid1010]

I'm 100% confident in knowing what I meant with my quote, and with how I wager. Thank you for your concern though.

Making money=good! Losing money=bad. I'm sorry you interpreted it to mean something wayyyyyy different, but I greatly appreciate your concern for my betting well being.

Man, there are some really hot wagering takes on this board from a lot of smart guys. Hope life is good on your luxury yachts.

And yet another quote proving you are clueless. 

[THRILLHO]

If you win 501 straight spread bets and lose 499 straight spread bets you've lost money at any traditional sportsbook.

Any bookie not taking vig is just a gambler - just like you.

Everyone knows what he meant you insufferable pedant.

[avid1010]

If you win 501 straight spread bets and lose 499 straight spread bets you've lost money at any traditional sportsbook.

Any bookie not taking vig is just a gambler - just like you.

Hitting 50% on $200 unit bet over a year at 4 bets per night loses about $7K.

[Dish]

I'm going to go enjoy a nice dinner with my family. Take my daughter to dance class, help my youngest son with his homework. Maybe watch Bulls/Blazers later.

Hope everyone has as good a night as me.

1+1=3.

[Skatastrophy]

I'm going to go enjoy a nice dinner with my family. Take my daughter to dance class, help my youngest son with his homework. Maybe watch Bulls/Blazers later.

Hope everyone has as good a night as me.

1+1=3.

The other 1 comes from vig. That's what I learned in this thread.

[jficke13]

This is among the dumbest scoop arguments of all time. And that is really saying something.

[PGsHeroes32]

ESPN says Ole Miss -3.5 for what it's worth in this battle

[jficke13]

ESPN says Ole Miss -3.5 for what it's worth in this battle

For it to really be part of this battle we all have to deliberately misinterpret your expression of "battle" to mean literal armed conflict and then spend several posts stubbornly insisting that your post must be interpreted literally.

[Skatastrophy]

For it to really be part of this battle we all have to deliberately misinterpret your expression of "battle" to mean literal armed conflict and then spend several posts stubbornly insisting that your post must be interpreted literally.

Your "win some lose some" attitude when it comes to battle is why you're literally poor.

[5DollarPitcher]

ESPN says Ole Miss -3.5 for what it's worth in this battle

ESPN has a deal with Caesars and uses their odds when referencing sports gambling on and off-air.

In short, it means the first reputable sportsbook, Caesars, has set the opening line at -3.5 in favor of Ole Miss.

In even shorter, it means I was exactly right. It's alright @Degen - you can take your L now.

By the way, watch the line move toward a pick 'em before the game tomorrow. The second half of my prediction.

[JakeBarnes]

-3.5 at Caesars and #1 in our hearts.


Who's winning the match?

[Dish]

I honestly don't know how I'm going to sleep tonight.

[DoctorV]

I honestly don't know how I'm going to sleep tonight.

With your mind on the next big bet?

[Dish]

With your mind on the next big bet?

No, with my ego shattered.

Thoughts & Prayers please.

[Daniel]

Not back til game 2 of the this tournament, right?

Is that right?  I thought Elliot got suspension for exhibition plus 3.  Hmm. Maybe I'm wrong

[Jay Bee]

You (!) referenced OddsShark earlier. Their opening line is literally -5!

This is comical. Dude, you and Jay Bee were wrong, just take the L already.

Nope. Your guess was piss poor. Most opening lines are at 3.5.

[1SE]

Its like watching these two guys...

[Dish]

Nope. Your guess was piss poor. Most opening lines are at 3.5.

To the 99% of you following this back and forth, my apologies in advance.

I tried explaining this earlier, but I'll provide data (which we know you love) here. After I'm done, you can call me names or whatever you like. Avid and 5 buck can chime in too to let me know how stupid I am, and I have zero clue about any of this.

Early in the college basketball season, "the real" books wait to put out lines. Let's look at some real life example, shall we?

Last week, offshores opened Citadel +12 at Pitt everywhere offshore, hell, even Wynn opened at +12. None of the "real books" ever posted +12 as their opening line. Do you know why? Because these books will wait to see what happens at the offshores. If money comes in semi-heavy on an early number at an offshore, obviously the number will change within minutes. Once that settles down, the "real books" will wait a while and then open at the lower/higher number. The "real books" goal early in a college basketball season is to let offshores settle on a number, because the "real books" invest next to nothing internally on setting early season college basketball lines due to the sheer inventory of games on a nightly basis.

Other examples: Clemson/Presbyterian O/U from 146, to "real books" opening at 139. Heck, Barstool had it open at 146 for seven minutes before it mysteriously went off the board. Niagara (+21.5 to +15.5 at Xavier). The best one yet...Offshores opened at 136.5 (KP at 136) total on Grambling St/Grand Canyon, the "real books" opened at 147. It was taken down 90 seconds later, and "opened" by the "real books" at 136.

My "guess" on Ole Miss -5.5 to -6.5 was based on analytics that I use. I'm sorry that the data I provided from OddsShark showed Ole Miss open at -5, my apologies to everyone.

It's great having you back after your "hiatus" JayBee.

[5DollarPitcher]

I get what you're saying. I think we just definitionally disagree on what an opening line is. I don't care what a couple random offshores (not even the biggest ones) open at and immediately move off of because they were wildly wrong. Vegas is opening at -3.5.

[MU82]

Gotta beat Ole Miss!