[Cracked Sidewalks] Notre Dame Numbers Recap - Game 2

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Notre Dame Numbers Recap - Game 2

Let's jump right into the numbers.

Four Factors Recap




The way that the majority of these numbers play out show how close the game was.  This was clearly a game where offense ruled.  Similar to the last game, Marquette was able to win the battle of effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and turnovers, but lost on Offensive Rebounding and Free Throw Rate (more on that in a second).  Thanks to shooting 12-25 from three, Marquette had a good showing on eFG%.  The Turnover Rate for Marquette was outstanding, but Notre Dame did a much better job protecting the ball this game than last time (31% at the BC).  As a reminder, 20% is considered average, so ND was better than average.  ND won the battle of offensive rebounding again, but the difference was not all that great.  No, the big difference in this game was the free throw line.

Is there a legitimate gripe about free throws or not?

The answer is actually somewhat murky.  By now, we all know the numbers.  Thirty one free throws for Notre Dame as opposed to Marquette's eight free throws. On the one hand, Notre Dame is the number two team in the country at limiting teams to Free Throw Rate.  Their opponents average a Free Throw Rate of 20.7%, so our rate of 11% for this game was half of that. Seven of Notre Dame's Opponents have ended up with a Free Throw Rate under 15%.  Furthermore, in our last game, we had a FTR of 20.6% and ND still had a FTR of 43.1%.

On the other hand, Marquette averages a per-game Free Throw Rate of 35.5%.  Our standard deviation for this FTR is 10.7%.  Therefore, 95% of our Free Throw Rates should be between 14% and 57%.  In other words, the Free Throw Rate for this game was in the bottom 2.5% of all expected results.  Of course, we are dealing with a sample size of twenty-two games too.  Also, as reported by AC016097 at the MarquetteHoops.com board, Marquette didn't shoot any free throws in the last fifteen minutes of the game, while ND shot 17. There would seem to be some semblance of a legitimate beef.

But what's done is done, and if Marquette hits a few more of those bunnies, it's all a moot point.

Big East Projected Finish

Pomeroy predicts us with a record of 22-8 (11-7), which would mean finishing 6-2 in our final eight games.  Based on our Big East season stats, we predict to a conference record of 9.5-8.5.  That would mean finishing 4-4 or 3-5.  Based on how we've been playing the last five games, we predict to a conference record of 11.6 - 6.4.  That would mean finishing 7-1 or 6-2.  I'll take either the Pomeroy or last five games predictions, please!

Individual Player Ratings




There's a few good things about the Individual Player Ratings.  First, it's nice to see Dominic James break out of his slump.   It's also great to see Lazar bounce back from his rough game against Louisville.  Hayward is clearly the most valuable (statistical) player on the team, especially when we consider conference play.

However, there were some rough games for McNeal, Matthews, and Barro.  Matthews has been one of the best players on the team during conference play, but this was a poor game.  It was nice to see Barro contribute on the Defensive End, but his offensive outing was hard to watch.  I do believe that if he gets 2-3 more field goals to drop, we're talking about what a great game he had.  McNeal was average on defense, but poor on offense.  Frankly, for as harsh as people have been on the team thus far, McNeal seems to get a pass, but he's probably having the least impact on the team out of our top four players.  That's not good for the 06-07 team MVP.

Later on this week, we'll have more on DJ, McNeal, Matthews, and Lazar, looking at year-to-date stats, conference stats, and individual Win-Loss Records.  For now, let's move on to Seton Hall, where we'll hopefully start that final season run of 7-1.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/02/notre-dame-numbers-recap-game-2.html

[AlumKCof93]

Good call out on McNeal.  As I mentioned in another thread, McNeal had a very poor game against ND on Saturday and yet most of the posts on the board I've read call out Barro.  For MU to turn this around, its imperative that Crean adjusts how he uses McNeal.  There is no way that McNeal should have played 36 minutes on Saturday!  He was 3-15 and committed several turnovers as well.  Worse than that, he continued to force things offensively when nothing was there.  In doing that, he took opportunites away from Lazar and DJ who were much better options.
Why does McNeal get such a free pass?  ND is not an anomaly, he's played poorly for a long stretch now and yet still seems to have free reign on offense.  I think the key to the season is for Crean to make JM the 4th option on offense and to limit his playing time if he continues to force things on the offensive side.  If I'm Crean, I'm taking McNeal out anytime he shoots a 3 within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.  Not only does he shoot a terrible percentage from there, but he takes the 3's at the wrong time.  On Saturday, after McAlarney hit a 3, McNeal took a 3 at the start of the possession which led a to a transition basket for ND.  That's happened all too often this year and its up to Crean to make sure that McNeal realizes its hurting the team.

[IAmMarquette]

There is no way that McNeal should have played 36 minutes on Saturday!  He was 3-15 and committed several turnovers as well.

I totally agree that McNeal played poorly on Saturday, but he only had 2 turnovers. That said, though not technically turnovers, you could consider some of his shots to be just that, e.g. the 1-on-4 out of control scoop shot at the end of the half, which, of course, led to an ND break and a Shrek dunk and a 10-point deficit.