[Cracked Sidewalks] Kansas State Preview

[brewcity77]

Marquette will travel to Manhattan to take on a K-State team that was surging to finish 2021. Cracked Sidewalks breaks down the Wildcats:

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2021/11/kansas-state-preview-2021-22.html?m=1

[tower912]

Let's grill Weber.

[GooooMarquette]

Will this affect our seeding?

[Herman Cain]

This is a very handy scouting report .

Would be nice to get a road win on the resume .

[Dr. Blackheart]

Let's grill Weber.

Prefer smoked meats

[Newsdreams]

Prefer smoked meats

Arby's

[brewcity77]

Fans looking at Kansas State might be daunted by their 10th ranked eFG% rating, which is the cornerstone of their top-50 defensive ranking on kenpom. That said, I'm not convinced it's real. So far, here are the 3PFG% ranks of the teams they've played: #357 Florida A&M, #202 Nebraska-Omaha, #308 Arkansas, #86 Illinois, #278 North Dakota, #324 Albany, and #225 Wichita State.

So yes, their 3PFG% "defense" is ranked 5th nationally, but that's because teams ranked #225 or worse shot a collective 15/109 against them (13.8% from three) while the two "best" three point shooting teams they faced shot 23/53 (43.4%). While Marquette isn't a great three point shooting team, their #184 rank (32.9% on the season) will be the second best KSU has faced this year, so don't expect them to suffocate us at the arc, especially as K-State isn't very good at chasing teams off the line, they've just been lucky enough to not see those shots fall against them.

[DoctorV]

Awesome, thanks Brew.

I haven't seen them play this year but a quick search shows that their two leading scorers are a diminutive 6'0 and 5'8.

Both Pack and Nowell shoot a lot of threes with the taller of the two Pack being more efficient shooting a better percentage.

Is Bruce trying to take a page out of Wojos book after getting a first hand look at the Markus/Rowsey combo?!?

[Slick]

Nigel Pack, their best player, is in concussion protocol and may or may not play. Game time decision.

[brewcity77]

Statistically, I think we win and it might be a rout.

K-State has played 2 games against teams in the top-150 in terms of tempo. They are 0-2 in those games. In addition, their average offensive possession length is 92nd nationally at 16.5 seconds, so they are NOT trying to slow the pace, which plays into what Marquette wants to do.

Their elite 3PFG% defense is a lie, they allowed 43.4% beyond the arc against their two best shooting opponents but just 13.8% to teams ranked #225 or worse.

Their 2PFG% is similarly fraudulent, allowing 43.9% (106/229) against teams ranked worse than 280 in 2PFG% offense but just 53.4% (31/59) against top-200 2PFG% shooting teams.

We'll be the second best 3P and 2P shooting teams they've seen this year.

[mug644]

Statistically, I think we win and it might be a rout.

K-State has played 2 games against teams in the top-150 in terms of tempo. They are 0-2 in those games. In addition, their average offensive possession length is 92nd nationally at 16.5 seconds, so they are NOT trying to slow the pace, which plays into what Marquette wants to do.

Their elite 3PFG% defense is a lie, they allowed 43.4% beyond the arc against their two best shooting opponents but just 13.8% to teams ranked #225 or worse.

Their 2PFG% is similarly fraudulent, allowing 43.9% (106/229) against teams ranked worse than 280 in 2PFG% offense but just 53.4% (31/59) against top-200 2PFG% shooting teams.

We'll be the second best 3P and 2P shooting teams they've seen this year.

How might their homecourt advantage figure into your data and thinking? I fear our young team will consistently struggle on an opponent's court, as witnessed in Madison.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We'll be the second best 3P and 2P shooting teams they've seen this year.

That's a pretty damning indictment of the strengths of their opponent's offenses

[Jay Bee]

I hate to place too much pressure on one game, but this feels like an important win, given the remaining schedule here in December. Absolutely winnable – would be unfortunate to not make the most of the opportunity.

I don't understand how Nowell gets defensive rebounds, but he does. This may drive me crazy.

Although they hold the edge today (63 vs. 77), K-State's kenpom ranking a week ago was lower than Marquette's is today.

Nice win at Wichita State on Sunday without Pack. They did not turn the ball over against a defense that usual forces mistakes. Weird game in which neither team could shoot. We don't want that recipe tonight. Please, just need a few shots to fall.

[JakeBarnes]

I hate to place too much pressure on one game, but this feels like an important win, given the remaining schedule here in December. Absolutely winnable – would be unfortunate to not make the most of the opportunity.

I don't understand how Nowell gets defensive rebounds, but he does. This may drive me crazy.

Although they hold the edge today (63 vs. 77), K-State's kenpom ranking a week ago was lower than Marquette's is today.

Nice win at Wichita State on Sunday without Pack. They did not turn the ball over against a defense that usual forces mistakes. Weird game in which neither team could shoot. We don't want that recipe tonight. Please, just need a few shots to fall.

Agreed. I'd like to see more Joplin and OMax taking threes. They seem to both be rounding into from from deep.

[panda]

Statistically, I think we win and it might be a rout.

K-State has played 2 games against teams in the top-150 in terms of tempo. They are 0-2 in those games. In addition, their average offensive possession length is 92nd nationally at 16.5 seconds, so they are NOT trying to slow the pace, which plays into what Marquette wants to do.

Their elite 3PFG% defense is a lie, they allowed 43.4% beyond the arc against their two best shooting opponents but just 13.8% to teams ranked #225 or worse.

Their 2PFG% is similarly fraudulent, allowing 43.9% (106/229) against teams ranked worse than 280 in 2PFG% offense but just 53.4% (31/59) against top-200 2PFG% shooting teams.

We'll be the second best 3P and 2P shooting teams they've seen this year.

I'm happy the stats back it up - I've watched them and they are, very simply put, not good.

[brewcity77]

That's a pretty damning indictment of the strengths of their opponent's offenses

They've played some terrible cupcakes, but even some of the more prolific teams they've played (Wichita, Arkansas, Illinois) have some notable weaknesses in terms of shooting. And while Marquette hasn't been great from three, they are just slightly below average (184) at 3PFG% and actually pretty good (77) at 2PFG%. And I have more confidence in our offensive numbers considering the schedule we've played.

[DoctorV]

I like what brew is saying and I really like the thought of Pack not playing- does anyone know when it'll be announced if he's a go or out? Might be worth a nice last minute pre-game wager.

I would be very surprised if Marquette wins by any sort of a wide margin. Statistics and data, as effective as they are, are only one aspect. I agree that any early season road game will be a tough one.

My instinct tells me that if Pack doesn't play, or plays but is ineffective, MU wins, but not by more than 5-10 pts.
If he plays and if his normal self MU loses, but again not by a wide margin.

I can picture the guy that will read this and think "I always want to play a team at their best and fully healthy so I hope he plays!...."

Well I'm not that guy. MU needs a win tonight to make sure this month doesn't turn into a complete disaster. Therefore, I'd rather Mr. Pack sits one more out and is back next game a lot like Cockburn.

[BM1090]

I definitely don't see MU winning by a wide margin. The defense struggled with smaller, quicker guards vs. the cupcakes.

I do think it's worth it to put a MU ML bet down at + odds, but I could see this one going either way.

[brewcity77]

I think turnover type is worth looking at too. K-State ranks 50th in offensive steal percentage (so they don't give up steals) but 178th in non-steal turnover percentage. That means they are the kind of team that makes mistakes, charges, throws the ball away, steps out of bounds, all the things that Marquette's aggressive, deflection-based defense is designed to create.

[panda]

I like what brew is saying and I really like the thought of Pack not playing- does anyone know when it'll be announced if he's a go or out? Might be worth a nice last minute pre-game wager.

I would be very surprised if Marquette wins by any sort of a wide margin. Statistics and data, as effective as they are, are only one aspect. I agree that any early season road game will be a tough one.

My instinct tells me that if Pack doesn't play, or plays but is ineffective, MU wins, but not by more than 5-10 pts.
If he plays and if his normal self MU loses, but again not by a wide margin.

I can picture the guy that will read this and think "I always want to play a team at their best and fully healthy so I hope he plays!...."

Well I'm not that guy. MU needs a win tonight to make sure this month doesn't turn into a complete disaster. Therefore, I'd rather Mr. Pack sits one more out and is back next game a lot like Cockburn.

Looks doubtful.

https://www.kansas.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article256399636.html

[BM1090]

My guess is he plays. He's been retweeting/liking posts about tonight's game.

[JakeBarnes]

My guess is he plays. He's been retweeting/liking posts about tonight's game.

Sounds like someone that isn't doing practice and walkthroughs and is on his phone...

[tmcats]

not sure down here if nijel pack will play or not.  he's a big loss if seated.  our best shooter.

in spite of what you read here, k-state is a pretty solid defensive outfit.  they win only when they play well on that side of the court.

we really don't know what we'll get tonight because of two earlier losses, then a win over a supposedly good wichita team that had earlier beaten oklahoma state in their gym and taken arizona to ot.   

k-state will wear their throwback lavenders and marquette will be in their warriors' powder blues.  that should be hard on the eyes.  ha.

good luck tonight.  in another time, i truly adored al and those tough-ass marquette teams.   

[JakeBarnes]

not sure down here if nijel pack will play or not.  he's a big loss if seated.  our best shooter.

in spite of what you read here, k-state is a pretty solid defensive outfit.  they win only when they play well on that side of the court.

we really don't know what we'll get tonight because of two earlier losses, then a win over a supposedly good wichita team that had earlier beaten oklahoma state in their gym and taken arizona to ot.   

k-state will wear their throwback lavenders and marquette will be in their warriors' powder blues.  that should be hard on the eyes.  ha.

good luck tonight.  in another time, i truly adored al and those tough-ass marquette teams.   

Cheers. I hope our guys pull out the win, but will be rooting for you guys for the rest of the season for sure.

[MU82]

Appreciate all the 4-1-1, brew.

Normally I'd say I don't care if we win by 1 or 21, but apparently winning close isn't good anymore, so I'm hoping your rout prediction is right.

I agree with Muggs, JB and others who say this feels like an important game to win.

And it won't bother me one iota if their stud doesn't play. I rather
liked that Illinois' stud didn't play!