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brewcity77

This was part of the reason I was bullish on him. He's 5 possessions away from winning his last 5 tournament games. Statistically speaking, that should even out with time.

vogue65

As I see it Wojo had some bad luck at Marquette while Buzz and Al McGuire had some good luck.
Perhaps luck has a lot to do with college badketball fan base attitudes.

WarriorInNYC

Quote from: vogue65 on March 29, 2021, 08:24:32 PM
As I see it Wojo had some bad luck at Marquette while Buzz and Al McGuire had some good luck.
Perhaps luck has a lot to do with college badketball fan base attitudes.

Buzz was a Davidson breakdown away from being upset by a 14 seed and not close to sniffing an Elite 8.  Deep March runs are incredibly fragile.

hairy worthen

Quote from: WarriorInNYC on March 29, 2021, 08:48:38 PM
Buzz was a Davidson breakdown away from being upset by a 14 seed and not close to sniffing an Elite 8.  Deep March runs are incredibly fragile.
True, but to insinuate Al was successful because he had luck is a long stretch.

brewcity77

Quote from: WarriorInNYC on March 29, 2021, 08:48:38 PM
Buzz was a Davidson breakdown away from being upset by a 14 seed and not close to sniffing an Elite 8.  Deep March runs are incredibly fragile.

Dwyane Wade was lucky to escape both first weekend games in 2003. Then blasted Kentucky with a triple double, but just as easily could've lost to Holy Cross.

Skatastrophy

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 29, 2021, 08:51:46 PM
Dwyane Wade was lucky to escape both first weekend games in 2003. Then blasted Kentucky with a triple double, but just as easily could've lost to Holy Cross.

Diener went off against Holy Cross. Unbelievable performance

Galway Eagle

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 29, 2021, 08:51:46 PM
Dwyane Wade was lucky to escape both first weekend games in 2003. Then blasted Kentucky with a triple double, but just as easily could've lost to Holy Cross.

Or was he unlucky to get upset by Tulsa?
Retire Terry Rand's jersey!

Herman Cain

Quote from: vogue65 on March 29, 2021, 08:24:32 PM
As I see it Wojo had some bad luck at Marquette while Buzz and Al McGuire had some good luck.
Perhaps luck has a lot to do with college badketball fan base attitudes.
I haven't tallied it up, but I think if you go through Season by season of Wojos career , MU was the beneficiary of good luck in close games more often than not, or at worst a push. 

What hurt MU in Wojos regime was all the conference games they lost decisively.
"It was a Great Day until it wasn't"
    ——Rory McIlroy on Final Round at Pinehurst

NickelDimer

Quote from: vogue65 on March 29, 2021, 08:24:32 PM
As I see it Wojo had some bad luck at Marquette while Buzz and Al McGuire had some good luck.
Perhaps luck has a lot to do with college badketball fan base attitudes.
Yeah and perhaps two of those guys being really good coaches and one not does too hey?
No Finish Line

MU82

Quote from: hairy worthen on March 29, 2021, 08:51:21 PM
True, but to insinuate Al was successful because he had luck is a long stretch.

Of course Al had luck on his side, and more than once, during the '77 title run. There's no shame in that. He had some bad luck earlier in his career.
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

5DollarPitcher

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 29, 2021, 08:51:46 PM
Dwyane Wade was lucky to escape both first weekend games in 2003. Then blasted Kentucky with a triple double, but just as easily could've lost to Holy Cross.
I appreciate your statistical-mindedness. But I've always wondered - do you believe in some amount of unquantifiable "clutchness" or "takeover gene" that may cause someone to either win or lose most of the close ones? Or do you think that line of thinking is hooey?

cheebs09

Quote from: MU82 on March 29, 2021, 09:27:54 PM
Of course Al had luck on his side, and more than once, during the '77 title run. There's no shame in that. He had some bad luck earlier in his career.

He did have his lucky suit.

brewcity77

Quote from: 5DollarPitcher on March 29, 2021, 09:33:25 PM
I appreciate your statistical-mindedness. But I've always wondered - do you believe in some amount of unquantifiable "clutchness" or "takeover gene" that may cause someone to either win or lose most of the close ones? Or do you think that line of thinking is hooey?

To a limited extent, yes, but I think we often overrate that. It's hard to look at that Derek Jeter flip play and not recognize there's some ability to get to the right spot at the right time and do the right thing. Or to think about all the game clinching shots a great shooter like Markus didn't make. But like Michael Jordan said, no one talks about all the times I didn't make the game-winner.

But ultimately, as a coach, all you can do is put your guys in position to have those chances. For Shaka, he did that in 2011 and reaped the rewards. In his past handful of opportunities, they didn't. But they were always in position. They always had a chance. That gives me optimism that some of those breaks will turn, which I didn't have when Wojo was losing by 19 every time out.

hairy worthen

Quote from: MU82 on March 29, 2021, 09:27:54 PM
Of course Al had luck on his side, and more than once, during the '77 title run. There's no shame in that. He had some bad luck earlier in his career.

Every coach has good luck and bad luck. Coaches that have high levels of success for sustained periods aren't lucky they are good coaches. I'm not talking about one season, one tournament, one game.

1SE

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 29, 2021, 07:52:01 PM
This was part of the reason I was bullish on him. He's 5 possessions away from winning his last 5 tournament games. Statistically speaking, that should even out with time.

Brew, come on, that's not how statistics work.
Real Warriors Demand Excellence

5DollarPitcher

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 30, 2021, 12:39:32 AM
To a limited extent, yes, but I think we often overrate that. It's hard to look at that Derek Jeter flip play and not recognize there's some ability to get to the right spot at the right time and do the right thing. Or to think about all the game clinching shots a great shooter like Markus didn't make. But like Michael Jordan said, no one talks about all the times I didn't make the game-winner.

But ultimately, as a coach, all you can do is put your guys in position to have those chances. For Shaka, he did that in 2011 and reaped the rewards. In his past handful of opportunities, they didn't. But they were always in position. They always had a chance. That gives me optimism that some of those breaks will turn, which I didn't have when Wojo was losing by 19 every time out.
Thanks. Good points.

brewcity77

Quote from: 1SE on March 30, 2021, 07:42:29 AM
Brew, come on, that's not how statistics work.

It's not like he'll win because he lost, but at the end of a career, those things will often look more balanced than they do at a snapshot. He has a bad 5-tournament snapshot. For a guy that will likely end up with an overall 30-40 year sample size, I'm confident his postseason success will be more balanced than it looks now. Especially because he's clearly putting his teams in position to win regularly.


dgies9156

Let's deal with Al's "luck"

1) In 1969, we were a Ric Cobb missed free throw (with no time remaining in regulation) from going to the final four. Rick Mount beat us in OT in Madison.

2) In 1970, we were a great team that won the NIT and probably could have gone deep again in the NCAA.

3) In 1971, Allie McGuire was whistled for something he did not do. Dean Meminger fouled out the only time in his career for playing basketball while being African American.

4) In 1972, Jim Chones left for the ABA, taking the core of a tremendous team out. We lost in the regionals.

5) In 1973, we caught a hot, up-and-coming Indiana Hoosier team in Bob Knight's first NCAA appearance. We lost.

6) In 1974, we were national runner-up and might have run the table, maybe, had it not been for two technical fouls (though David Thompson was really good).

7) In 1975, Maurice Lucas turned pro before the season and we did not have an answer inside.

8) In 1976, we caught an undefeated Indiana team in the regional final. They stayed undefeated in a titanic clash.

9) In 1977, we were as lucky as hell to get in and then the NCAA could not get rid of us.

10) In 1978, we lost it in our first round game against Miami of Ohio.

In effect, luck played a role in 1969, 1973 and 1977. The bigotry in the referees in 1971 may be considered luck of the draw, as could 1976.

The real lesson in all this is how hard it is to get to be national champions. You have more than 300 competitors and probably 20 to 30 teams in today's world who have a legitimate shot at an NCAA title. You have to be good and lucky to accomplish a natty.


1SE

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 30, 2021, 12:09:57 PM
It's not like he'll win because he lost, but at the end of a career, those things will often look more balanced than they do at a snapshot. He has a bad 5-tournament snapshot. For a guy that will likely end up with an overall 30-40 year sample size, I'm confident his postseason success will be more balanced than it looks now. Especially because he's clearly putting his teams in position to win regularly.

Ha - come on Brew - you're the numbers guy! He may get back to "balance" but the only way losing 5 games in a row in the past (or 10, or 100) has any bearing on future games is if we think those experiences taught him something and he's become a better coach and is now more likely to win ANY game. If we think the losses were "coinflip" losses, then they have absolutely no bearing on future outcomes. If you disagree, I have a roulette  wheel at my house you can come play with. :)
Real Warriors Demand Excellence

THRILLHO

Quote from: 1SE on March 30, 2021, 02:57:39 PM
Ha - come on Brew - you're the numbers guy! He may get back to "balance" but the only way losing 5 games in a row in the past (or 10, or 100) has any bearing on future games is if we think those experiences taught him something and he's become a better coach and is now more likely to win ANY game. If we think the losses were "coinflip" losses, then they have absolutely no bearing on future outcomes. If you disagree, I have a roulette  wheel at my house you can come play with. :)

I didn't interpret him as making the argument you seem to think he is. He's making the same argument you're making, Shaka's coinflip losses have no bearing on the future, i.e., we shouldn't expect Shaka to lose his next few tournament games because he lost these last few. He'll win more often when he's favored and lose more often when he's the underdog. Perhaps in contrast with Wojo, who lost tournament games so convincingly in the past that one might expect him to keep losing.

brewcity77

Quote from: THRILLHO on March 30, 2021, 03:19:51 PM
I didn't interpret him as making the argument you seem to think he is. He's making the same argument you're making, Shaka's coinflip losses have no bearing on the future, i.e., we shouldn't expect Shaka to lose his next few tournament games because he lost these last few. He'll win more often when he's favored and lose more often when he's the underdog. Perhaps in contrast with Wojo, who lost tournament games so convincingly in the past that one might expect him to keep losing.

Yes. I'm encouraged that he routinely puts his teams in positions to win critical games. It's not the coinflips going against him that is encouraging, it's that winning tournament games is hard and always being in the position where winning is within your grasp should be part of the goal.

I'm confident that if he can continue to put his teams in position to win while at Marquette, a fair share of bounces will go in his favor.

JakeBarnes

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 30, 2021, 03:26:44 PM
Yes. I'm encouraged that he routinely puts his teams in positions to win critical games. It's not the coinflips going against him that is encouraging, it's that winning tournament games is hard and always being in the position where winning is within your grasp should be part of the goal.

I'm confident that if he can continue to put his teams in position to win while at Marquette, a fair share of bounces will go in his favor.

Definitely one of the points he made during the presser yesterday--practice with an intensity that lets the players play unconsciously in the game (this was the Travis Diener reference point). Sometimes those "put yourself in the rihgt spot" situations also get a little nudge from a good crowd. Hoping to see both of these parts in action this year. 
Assume what I say should be in teal if it doesn't pass the smell test for you.

"We all carry within us our places of exile, our crimes and our ravages. But our task is not to unleash them on the world; it is to fight them in ourselves and in others." -Camus, The Rebel

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