Plan B

[Billy Hoyle]

Well apparently plan B is not Pat Kelsey, who is leaving Winthrop to go to.....THE College of Charlestown

unless Ryan Odom turned this one down this is a very surprising hire. Not because Kelsey isn't a highly qualified coach (I'd have taken him at MU), but rather CofC hired a search firm run by Odom's father.

[ZiggysChestHair]

I am going to go with a hot-take, but I am predicting the next head coach a wild card/left field candidate.  Someone we don't know about yet.  Perhaps a P6 head coach that feels he has capped out at his current stop.  Just a hunch, no inside knowledge.

So reading between the lines, you are guaranteeing Bruce Weber is the next Marquette coach.

[4everwarriors]

Just go away.

Funny coming from the Beav, aina?

[Galway Eagle]

What's the whole pat kelsey Sandy hook thing people keep mentioning?

[muwarrior69]

So, Gonzaga is a major program in a mid-major conference.  We agree.

Loyola is not on the same level as Gonzaga. Again, we agree.

Who is?

[willie warrior]

Funny coming from the Beav, aina?

watch out. he has  Wally and Eddie Haskell backing him. And be especially wary about June.

[RJax55]

What's the whole pat kelsey Sandy hook thing people keep mentioning?

Here's a few articles about it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2012/12/18/winthrop-pat-kesley-sandy-hook-shooting/1778835/

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/race4chase-sandy-hook-winthrop-pat-kelsey-rebecca-kowalski-triathlon/8gj5trmpn6sj1rttqqx9y0amg

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You are aware the 2018 team was loaded with seniors right? And that he wouldn't have had the recruiting bump leading into the immediate following season?

If by "loaded with seniors" you mean they had two senior starters and a senior who was the second guy off the bench than sure, they were loaded. I'd argue that their best players that season were a junior and a freshman.

A drop off from should have been expected the following year. 100% agree.

Dropping 100 spots in KenPom while losing 10 games to teams ranked outside the top 100 and winning 0 games against teams ranked in the top 134 should not have been expected. Moser underperformed bigly that year. He's redeemed himself this season and earned his way back in the conversation. I just don't like inconsistency like that.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Here's a few articles about it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2012/12/18/winthrop-pat-kesley-sandy-hook-shooting/1778835/

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/race4chase-sandy-hook-winthrop-pat-kelsey-rebecca-kowalski-triathlon/8gj5trmpn6sj1rttqqx9y0amg

This is keeping him from jobs somehow? How is any of that controversial?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It's also of course much easier to win at Michigan than Loyola, which I'm sure you'd acknowledge.

To win? Sure. But that's not the conversation we were having. We were having a conversation about overperforming/underperforming compared to KenPom (though you could substitute whatever metric service you want) preseason expectations. In that case, it is much easier to overperform at Loyola than it is at Michigan given their respective expectations.

I understand it as something to look at once in a while. It isn't something I would use or consider often or every time as a baseline. I think its something you value much more than me. For me it's more of how does Team A do this particular season. I mentioned it because many coaches are going to over-perform or underperform KenPom expectations some of the time. What matters most are results regardless of over or under performing. What are your results for a particular season? And what are your collective results?

KenPom
2012 SLU 14 VCU 46
2013 SLU 19 VCU 18
2014 SLU 35 VCU 25

League Finishes
2012 SLU 2nd VCU 2nd
2013 SLU 1st VCU 2nd
2014 VCU 1st VCU 2nd

*All finishes are A-10 except VCU played in Colonial 2012.

Moser recruited the bulk of those players for SLU before leaving for Loyola Chicago HC. VCU's coach (Shaka Smart) was a strong candidate for MUBB at the time after the 2014 season.

I think I would very much love to hire Rick Majerus. I think trying to compare Shaka's head coaching record to Porter Moser's assistant coaching record is disingenuous at best.

[RJax55]

This is keeping him from jobs somehow? How is any of that controversial?

Honestly, it is only the dumb Coaching Changes twitter that seems to care. Either they:

Hate what he said (possible)

Or feel that Kelsey used Sandy Hook to further his brand/image (I think this is more likely).

I'm pretty cynical, but that's a step way too far for me.

Anyway, Kelsey's bigger issue to me is the fact that he walked away from two jobs (UMass & Northern Kentucky) after agreeing to terms.

[GooooMarquette]

Anyway, Kelsey's bigger issue to me is the fact that he walked away from two jobs (UMass & Northern Kentucky) after agreeing to terms.

Did he walk away because his wife told him to?

[RJax55]

Did he walk away because his wife told him to?

If I was the College of Charleston, I would still have my plan B ready.

[JWags85]

Did he walk away because his wife told him to?

Jokes aside, he was well farther along in both those coaching hires before backing out than Shaka was with Marquette.  #DoneDeal tweets and new reports are one thing, I can't even imagine this place if a coaching hire backed out less than 30 min before their introductory press conference.

[shoothoops]

To win? Sure. But that's not the conversation we were having. We were having a conversation about overperforming/underperforming compared to KenPom (though you could substitute whatever metric you want) preseason expectations. In that case, it is much easier to overperform at Loyola than it is at Michigan given their respective expectations.

I think I would very much love to hire Rick Majerus. I think trying to compare Shaka's head coaching record to Porter Moser's assistant coaching record is disingenuous at best.

I'm more interested in results than over or underperforming KenPom annually. It's easier to achieve those results at Michigan and other Power 5 schools. I think we can agree on that.  I can recognize ober/under performing preseason predictions can be an occasional part of a discussion and valuation. It seems to be the almost "only" thing or default every post/discussion thing for you.

This allows examples of the many other coaches who's results can be, and have been uneven. Lon Kruger announced his retirement today. He went from 10 KenPom to 65 and 48 after his Final Four OU team, from 2016-2018. But hey it happens.

Seems disingenous to omit Moser's role there entirely during that overlapping time frame, and the results of the teams, when you frequently referencing Smart and MUBB after the 2014 season. (I may have missed your post about it)

*Disclaimer, I am not advocating for Moser to be MUBB HC.

[Billy Hoyle]

Jokes aside, he was well farther along in both those coaching hires before backing out than Shaka was with Marquette.  #DoneDeal tweets and new reports are one thing, I can't even imagine this place if a coaching hire backed out less than 30 min before their introductory press conference.

what's worse was Dana Altman doing the introductory press conference at Arkansas then going back to Creighton the next day. Bobby Cremins did the same at South Carolina, his alma mater, and went back to Ga Tech a few days later.

[Dr. Blackheart]

what's worse was Dana Altman doing the introductory press conference at Arkansas then going back to Creighton the next day. Bobby Cremins did the same at South Carolina, his alma mater, and went back to Ga Tech a few days later.

Majerus at USC

[MU82]

My Plan B is Kenpom.

[MUWarrior4Life]

Not as excited about Moser as the rest of this Board apparently is. Moser is the flavor of the day and while he has done well in the MVC, a steady died of Jay Wright and the Big East is something totally different than winning twice against MVC caliber teams.
THIS
I know only what I read but of the mentioned candidates to date, I really like Gates. Has shown he can both recruit on our level and can coach. I'm a believer on him. There are others as good but Gates hits the right buttons for us to be good.

[Pakuni]

My Plan B is Kenpom.

Pass
KenPom always underperforms his preseason KenPom.

[Windyplayer]

Or if Indiana makes a run at Moser.

Nothing is certain until the contract is signed and the house purchased.
Until somebody sees him driving northbound on I94 eating Arby's.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm more interested in results than over or underperforming KenPom annually. It's easier to achieve those results at Michigan and other Power 5 schools. I think we can agree on that.  I can recognize ober/under performing preseason predictions can be an occasional part of a discussion and valuation. It seems to be the almost "only" thing or default every post/discussion thing for you.

I think you may have forgotten how Michigan got brought into this conversation.

Another poster compared an argument I had made about Wojo to one I was making about Moser. I pointed out the differences with mutliple stats, including underperforming preseason predictions.

You joined in and focused on the preseason expectations piece. To try to discredit this, you posted that John Beinlein once underperformed his preseason KP expectations. I pointed out that over a 12 year stay  at Michigan, he had actually rarely underperformed and usually overperformed. You tried to dismiss this by saying it's easier to win at Michigan...which was a goalpost shift from your last post about Beilein underperforming KP expectations. I pointed out that its actually harder to overperform at Michigan because when you start ranked 34 or higher in KenPom (as Beilein did his last 9 years), it's hard to move up than if you start 55 or lower (as Moser understandably has always done). Now you would like to shift again to a different argument.

It's not the only thing. I've posted plenty of things I like and dislike about various candidates. I wrote 3,000 some words on it for Paint Touches if you want to look at it. With Moser, there are things I like and don't like. The most alarming stat is his inconsistency, so I bring it up when people are talking about Moser.

This allows examples of the many other coaches who's results can be, and have been uneven. Lon Kruger announced his retirement today. He went from 10 KenPom to 65 and 48 after his Final Four OU team, from 2016-2018. But hey it happens.

10 to 65 and 48 is much better than 33 to 131 and 101. I think you and I can agree on that. I think you would also agree that Lon Krueger lost a lot more talent to graduation than Moser did. Whereas Moser lost 2 starters and 1 top bench player, Kreuger lost 3 starters, including a consensus AA/Wooden Award winner/Naismith Award winner/Big12 POY/future lottery pick/future NBA All-Rookie.

Moser had a disappointing season after his FF. It's okay to acknowledge that. He has plenty of other positives on his resume.

Seems disingenous to omit Moser's role there entirely during that overlapping time frame, and the results of the teams, when you frequently referencing Smart and MUBB after the 2014 season. (I may have missed your post about it)

I honestly don't know what you mean by "when you frequently referencing Smart and MUBB after 2014 season." But I can promise you I'm not considering Smart's time as an assistant coach when I'm posting that I prefer Smart over Moser. I'm considering both of their times as head coaches.

*Disclaimer, I am not advocating for Moser to be MUBB HC.

Who are you advocating for?

[shoothoops]

I think you may have forgotten how Michigan got brought into this conversation.

Another poster compared an argument I had made about Wojo to one I was making about Moser. I pointed out the differences with mutliple stats, including underperforming preseason predictions.

You joined in and focused on the preseason expectations piece. To try to discredit this, you posted that John Beinlein once underperformed his preseason KP expectations. I pointed out that over a 12 year stay  at Michigan, he had actually rarely underperformed and usually overperformed. You tried to dismiss this by saying it's easier to win at Michigan...which was a goalpost shift from your last post about Beilein underperforming KP expectations. I pointed out that its actually harder to overperform at Michigan because when you start ranked 34 or higher in KenPom (as Beilein did his last 9 years), it's hard to move up than if you start 55 or lower (as Moser understandably has always done). Now you would like to shift again to a different argument.

It's not the only thing. I've posted plenty of things I like and dislike about various candidates. I wrote 3,000 some words on it for Paint Touches if you want to look at it. With Moser, there are things I like and don't like. The most alarming stat is his inconsistency, so I bring it up when people are talking about Moser.

10 to 65 and 48 is much better than 33 to 131 and 101. I think you and I can agree on that. I think you would also agree that Lon Krueger lost a lot more talent to graduation than Moser did. Whereas Moser lost 2 starters and 1 top bench player, Kreuger lost 3 starters, including a consensus AA/Wooden Award winner/Naismith Award winner/Big12 POY/future lottery pick/future NBA All-Rookie.

Moser had a disappointing season after his FF. It's okay to acknowledge that. He has plenty of other positives on his resume.

I honestly don't know what you mean by "when you frequently referencing Smart and MUBB after 2014 season." But I can promise you I'm not considering Smart's time as an assistant coach when I'm posting that I prefer Smart over Moser. I'm considering both of their times as head coaches.

Who are you advocating for?

Even Pakuni posted jokingly that KenPom underperforms preseason KenPom. I laughed.

Why are we here? Are we here because we would like to see MUBB win, and get results? Or are we here to see if MUBB over or under performs KenPom? Let's see the forest for the trees here.

Lots and lots of coaches have uneven KenPom results year to year. Some of them went to a Final Four one year, then missed the NCAA's and took a few years to win another NCAA game. Beilein, Kruger, it happened with Thad Matta, all kinds of coaches. It also wasn't a big negative for me when other coaches did it too.

You seem to forget that you are often in your posts comparing Loyola's MVC results with those of Power 5 programs instead of its peers. This isn't apples to apples. It's okay to acknowledge that. I mentioned that it's easier for some of those Power 5 schools to get results, and therefore have higher expectations. So when a school such as Texas has a 61 or 70 KenPom in recent years, or other examples, that stands out, considering the school.

For example, when MUBB had an Elite 8 with Buzz, there were some big predictions by some for the following season. Then Vander leaves etc...we know the results. I care about the results that year the same as I would any other year, not based on predictions, but just for the results themselves. How did MUBB do that year vs its peers? I don't get caught up in over/under performing, or this and that vs rosters. There will be other years where MUBB does better than expectations etc...

You have posted several times about Shaka Smart, including referencing his past VCU days. At one point after the 2014 season Smart was a serious candidate for Marquette HC.

I pointed out that their results while good, were not as good as SLU during those seasons SLU played with players largely recruited by Moser. In addition to that, when it was pointed out to you, you have multiple times now said that you only compare head coaches to head coaches. No one said Moser was the head coach at the time. (Although 5 different times he was the HC when Majerus took 5 different leaves of absence.) Moser's contributions to those overlapping seasons have considerable value, and, they are relevant considering Smart was an MUBB HC candidate at the time. That value won't be ignored because he wasn't the head coach. Nah.

In the two seasons between their Final Four, and this season, Loyola won their league once, finished 2nd once. No MVC had a better KenPom than them one year, and one did the next. Apples to apples. It's okay to acknowledge that.

I have said several times I am interested in apples to apples results.

If you want to post something here or link something here that you have written about the pros and cons of candidates, I will take a look at it. Otherwise all I can go by is what you post here. 👍

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I pointed out that their results while good, were not as good as SLU during those seasons SLU played with players largely recruited by Moser. In addition to that, when it was pointed out to you, you have multiple times now said that you only compare head coaches to head coaches. No one said Moser was the head coach at the time. (Although 5 different times he was the HC when Majerus took 5 different leaves of absence.) Moser's contributions to those overlapping seasons have considerable value, and, they are relevant considering Smart was an MUBB HC candidate at the time. That value won't be ignored because he wasn't the head coach. Nah.

I still don't understand what you are getting at with this paragraph. How is comparing SLU's record while Moser was an AC in 2012-2014 to VCU's record while Smart was a head coach during the same time period relevant to who the better head coach of Marquette would be in 2021? Show me where the apples to apples comparison is because I'm not seeing it.

On the two seasons between their Final Four, and this season, Loyola won their league once, finished 2nd once. No MVC had a better KenPom than them one year, and one did the next. Apples to apples. It's okay to acknowledge that.

So what I'm getting here is that you only care about "results", specifically, league finish because if you're beating your peers, you are doing well. There's some truth to that but there are results you are ignoring. #131 in KenPom, a bad result for a team that just made the final four. Going 0-5 against the top 134 teams in KenPom. Bad result. Losing 10 games to teams ranked #127 and lower in KenPom. Bad result. If you play in a bad league (and the MVC isn't bad every year but it was bad that year) league finish isn't a good barometer for me.

What I'm getting from the rest of your post is that there is some data that you just don't value. And that's fine. There some data I value and other data that I don't. I think the decision makers do value some of that data and I'm glad they do.

I noticed you didn't answer my question about who you are advocating for since you have repeatedly said you are not advocating for Moser. I'm hoping for Craig Smith. I don't think he'll be the pick but based on the information available he's who I'd hire. Who are you hoping for?

[brewcity77]

I still don't understand what you are getting at with this paragraph. How is comparing SLU's record while Moser was an AC in 2012-2014 to VCU's record while Smart was a head coach during the same time period relevant to who the better head coach of Marquette would be in 2021? Show me where the apples to apples comparison is because I'm not seeing it.

I'm told that while Hologram Al is retired, Moser wants to fill the Associate Head Coach role with Phantom Rick, so it's basically the same staff as SLU with the roles reversed.