Plan B

[Billy Hoyle]

isn't this the 'rank your candidates' thread but with contraception?

For me its:
- condom
- the pill
- vasectomy
- plan B
.
.
.
.
.

- abstinence

Plan B bailed me out a few times at MU.

[Hards Alumni]

Couldn't agree more, I have that same sense. Wojo at the time wasn't on anyone's radar but was well received once announced.

That is very much up for debate, and was not the case here on scoop.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=43397.0

Check out the posts from that period of time
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?board=2.11800

[Silent Verbal]

I'm not that worried about his early years at Loyola. I'm worried about the two before this one. He raised expectations with his Final Four run and the next two years were farts. Yes, yes, they finished top two in the MVC. That tells me more about the MVC those years than it does about Loyola.

He's back now and better than the Final Four year. That earns him a spot in the conversation. But the two year stumble between great seasons is concerning to me.

Whatever happened to your whole "down year" and "up year" thing you always used to defend Wojo?  That Loyola FF team started three seniors and two juniors.  They lost a lot of production the next two years.  Definitely due for a "down year" in your book, especially considering the FF seemingly came out of nowhere and Moser would need some time to build off that success.  Or does that line of thinking only apply to Wojo?  Christ, somehow, every freaking Wojo season was somehow justified as a "down year" in your book.

[StillAWarrior]

I'm not that worried about his early years at Loyola. I'm worried about the two before this one. He raised expectations with his Final Four run and the next two years were farts. Yes, yes, they finished top two in the MVC. That tells me more about the MVC those years than it does about Loyola.

He's back now and better than the Final Four year. That earns him a spot in the conversation. But the two year stumble between great seasons is concerning to me.

Similarly, Smart's six year stumble at Texas is concerning to me. I've read your explanations (and others) that provide some justification for it and explain why he is not Wojo. I don't disagree. But, it's concerning.

There is no ideal candidate out there. Moser is concerning because he hasn't recruited high major talent and because you view him as inconsistent. Smart is concerning because even with UT's resources he hasn't gotten it done. Gates is concerning because he hasn't been a head coach for long.

Although it's not a deciding factor, I do have to say I'd rather hire a coach where there is wailing and gnashing of teeth at his old school because of his departure than a coach where everyone at his old school is thanking the heavens that you took him off their hands. I want MU to break LUC (or CSU) fans' hearts, not make UT fans celebrate.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Whatever happened to your whole "down year" and "up year" thing you always used to defend Wojo?  That Loyola FF team started three seniors and two juniors.  They lost a lot of production the next two years.  Definitely due for a "down year" in your book, especially considering the FF seemingly came out of nowhere and Moser would need some time to build off that success.  Or does that line of thinking only apply to Wojo?  Christ, somehow, every freaking Wojo season was somehow justified as a "down year" in your book.

Still here. Loyola finished around 30 in KenPom the Final Four year. Preseason the year after they were ranked 66. They finished around 131. Drop was expected. Not a 100 point drop.

Wojo had three down years. Year 1, 4, and 7. You will never find a post of mine arguing otherwise but good try.

By the end of Wojo's last down year I was calling for him to be fired because he down year was too far down. There's still expectations to be met in a down year, it's not a get out of jail free card.

[JakeBarnes]

Similarly, Smart's stumbling at Texas is concerning to me. I've read your explanations (and others) that provide some justification for it and explain why he is not Wojo. I don't disagree. But, it's concerning.

There is no ideal candidate out there. Moser is concerning because he hasn't recruited high major talent and because you view him as inconsistent. Smart is concerning because even with UT's resources he hasn't gotten it done. Gates is concerning because he hasn't been a head coach for long.

Although it's not a deciding factor, I do have to say I'd rather hire a coach where there is wailing and gnashing of teeth at his old school because of his departure than a coach where everyone at his old school is thanking the heavens that you took him off their hands. I want MU to break LUC fans' hearts, not make UT fans celebrate.

Texas is a miserable fanbase. More than Marquette. They want anything gone that isn't shiny and new. Big Pond, small pond and their fanbase reaction doesn't really matter to me.

If I am Scholl, I am looking first and foremost for a coach that plays in a style that attracts recruits here,  has a strong personality that can get those recruits to commit, and demonstrated success as a head coach. That's the future of high-level college ball--a system that gets the kids excited.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Similarly, Smart's six year stumble at Texas is concerning to me. I've read your explanations (and others) that provide some justification for it and explain why he is not Wojo. I don't disagree. But, it's concerning.

Oh absolutely. I want to be clear, Shaka would not be my pick based on what I know. Of the known candidates, I'm Team Craig Smith with Dennis Gates as a backup. But if the choice is Shaka/Moser, I'd personally go with Shaka.

[shoothoops]

Still here. Loyola finished around 30 in KenPom the Final Four year. Preseason the year after they were ranked 66. They finished around 131. Drop was expected. Not a 100 point drop.

Wojo had three down years. Year 1, 4, and 7. You will never find a post of mine arguing otherwise but good try.

By the end of Wojo's last down year I was calling for him to be fired because he down year was too far down. There's still expectations to be met in a down year, it's not a get out of jail free card.

1) I am less interested in preseason expectations any year. Your results are your results.

2) We can cherry pick a lot of coaches that have had this. John Beilein and Michigan were a top 25 Pre-Season KenPom 2014-2015. They finished 74th.

[Resilient]

Why not Mark Turgeon, he should be ahead of Moser frankly

A great coach that has won in the Big 12 and Big 10 and could be looking to benefit from a change of scenery. Great guy and devout Catholic with midwest roots so he's an excellent cultural fit as well

[Hards Alumni]

Why not Mark Turgeon, he should be ahead of Moser frankly

A great coach that has won in the Big 12 and Big 10 and could be looking to benefit from a change of scenery. Great guy and devout Catholic with midwest roots so he's an excellent cultural fit as well

He hasn't been on anyone's lists.  A devout Catholic who starts fights, and isn't well liked.

[CTWarrior]

Not as excited about Moser as the rest of this Board apparently is. Moser is the flavor of the day and while he has done well in the MVC, a steady died of Jay Wright and the Big East is something totally different than winning twice against MVC caliber teams.

I know only what I read but of the mentioned candidates to date, I really like Gates. Has shown he can both recruit on our level and can coach. I'm a believer on him. There are others as good but Gates hits the right buttons for us to be good.

This is where I am, too.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

1) I am less interested in preseason expectations any year. Your results are your results.

Of course. But it gives you a neutral baseline by which to judge a coach. It's one tool of many.

2) We can cherry pick a lot of coaches that have had this. John Beilein and Michigan were a top 25 Pre-Season KenPom 2014-2015. They finished 74th.

Doing that to Beilein would be cherry picking as it is his worst underperformance by far and he only had two other seasons at Michigan (out of 12) where he underperformed expectations. With Moser? He's underperformed in 4/10 seasons and the year after his final four was not his worst underperformance. He's overperformed 5 times and met expectations once. He's very up/down. More than most coaches. He may regulate if elevated to a higher level but it still gives me pause.

*Disclaimer: I think Moser would be a solid hire, I just prefer others to him*

[JakeBarnes]

Of course. But it gives you a neutral baseline by which to judge a coach. It's one tool of many.

Doing that to Beilein would be cherry picking as it is his worst underperformance by far and he only had two other seasons at Michigan (out of 12) where he underperformed expectations. With Moser? He's underperformed in 4/10 seasons and the year after his final four was not his worst underperformance. He's overperformed 5 times and met expectations once. He's very up/down. More than most coaches. He may regulate if elevated to a higher level but it still gives me pause.

*Disclaimer: I think Moser would be a solid hire, I just prefer others to him*

The ups and downs are my concerns. No coach is perfect, but I'd rather we have one that has performed at a high level in a major conference and also plays a style of ball that can be sold to the level of recruits necessary to compete at that level. Moser would be fine, but a lot of stock is being put in just the postseason stuff.

In disclosure, I am in the Shaka/Gates camp (I think Smith won't leave so I am keeping him out).

[lessthannick11]

Well apparently plan B is not Pat Kelsey, who is leaving Winthrop to go to.....THE College of Charlestown

[GoldenWarrior11]

This is ridiculous. Gonzaga operates like a high major, but they are not one. Loyola neither operates nor is a high major. Success doesn't change your league affiliation and they aren't recruiting or getting national attention regularly like a high major. After their last Final Four run, they became sub-100 for 2 years. Against top-100 non-con competition, they went 1-9 between NCAA Tournament appearances. They're nothing like a high major.

Respectfully, there are major, high-major conferences, mid-major and low-major conferences, and then there are also major, high-major, mid-major and low-major programs.  Gonzaga may not be in high-major conference, but they have produced high-major results.  Their conference affiliation does not shackle them from competing from #1 seeds or the possibility of competing for national championships. 

Loyola is not in a major or high-major conference.  However, they now have had more tournament success in the past four seasons than a majority of major/high-major programs have had.  Similarly, Northwestern is in a major conference, but - historically - they are a low-major program.  Take Cincinnati and Memphis; they are not in a major conference, but those two programs have more basketball history and success than many programs in major conferences.  In additions, those jobs are more valuable towards winning at a higher level than, say (historically) a TCU, Rutgers, Washington State, Nebraska, etc. 

Titles aside, Loyola is miles better today than when they were when Moser took over.  That is certain. 

[Hards Alumni]

Well apparently plan B is not Pat Kelsey, who is leaving Winthrop to go to.....THE College of Charlestown

CoachingChanges gonna hate this

[Silkk the Shaka]

I'm not that worried about his early years at Loyola. I'm worried about the two before this one. He raised expectations with his Final Four run and the next two years were farts. Yes, yes, they finished top two in the MVC. That tells me more about the MVC those years than it does about Loyola.

He's back now and better than the Final Four year. That earns him a spot in the conversation. But the two year stumble between great seasons is concerning to me.

You are aware the 2018 team was loaded with seniors right? And that he wouldn't have had the recruiting bump leading into the immediate following season?

[rocky_warrior]

Well apparently plan B is not Pat Kelsey, who is leaving Winthrop to go to.....THE College of Charlestown

Hm, actually thought Kelsey would get (or eventually go to) a bigger step up.

[shoothoops]

Of course. But it gives you a neutral baseline by which to judge a coach. It's one tool of many.

Doing that to Beilein would be cherry picking as it is his worst underperformance by far and he only had two other seasons at Michigan (out of 12) where he underperformed expectations. With Moser? He's underperformed in 4/10 seasons and the year after his final four was not his worst underperformance. He's overperformed 5 times and met expectations once. He's very up/down. More than most coaches. He may regulate if elevated to a higher level but it still gives me pause.

*Disclaimer: I think Moser would be a solid hire, I just prefer others to him*

It's also of course much easier to win at Michigan than Loyola, which I'm sure you'd acknowledge.

I understand it as something to look at once in a while. It isn't something I would use or consider often or every time as a baseline. I think its something you value much more than me. For me it's more of how does Team A do this particular season. I mentioned it because many coaches are going to over-perform or underperform KenPom expectations some of the time. What matters most are results regardless of over or under performing. What are your results for a particular season? And what are your collective results?

KenPom
2012 SLU 14 VCU 46
2013 SLU 19 VCU 18
2014 SLU 35 VCU 25

League Finishes
2012 SLU 2nd VCU 2nd
2013 SLU 1st VCU 2nd
2014 VCU 1st VCU 2nd

*All finishes are A-10 except VCU played in Colonial 2012.

Moser recruited the bulk of those players for SLU before leaving for Loyola Chicago HC. VCU's coach (Shaka Smart) was a strong candidate for MUBB at the time after the 2014 season.

[shoothoops]

CoachingChanges gonna hate this

What Coaching Changes won't tell you is the Sandy Hook families approached Pat Kelsey, not the other way around.

[GoldenWarrior11]

What Coaching Changes won't tell you is the Sandy Hook families approached Pat Kelsey, not the other way around.

The account has some... strange... fixations/obsessions on certain individuals and other... specific... topics. 

Which one of us uses it as a burner?

[brewcity77]

Respectfully, there are major, high-major conferences, mid-major and low-major conferences, and then there are also major, high-major, mid-major and low-major programs.

Hard disagree. Those are conference designations. Gonzaga is a top-10 program in a mid-major conference. Those two are not conflicting statements.

And Loyola simply doesn't have the resources, exposure, or long-term consistency to be considered on par with high-majors or top-10 programs. No one would confuse Loyola with Gonzaga. Maybe in 15-20 years.

[Hards Alumni]

What Coaching Changes won't tell you is the Sandy Hook families approached Pat Kelsey, not the other way around.

I'm aware, I wanted us to interview Pat

[JWags85]

Hm, actually thought Kelsey would get (or eventually go to) a bigger step up.

I think this seems about right.  He's had success, but the Big South is really bad.  Add to that the hiring SNAFUs.  CoachingChanges hammers the Sandy Hook, but Ive heard buzz multiple times about the NKU and UMass situations giving him a bit of a bad rep in coaching circles.  CofC lets him continue to build in that region and sets him up for an ACC or SEC job in 3-4 years if he shows it can translate out of a one-bid 14-16 seed conference.  I mean Gregg Marshall didn't even jump to a high major conference and his results at Winthrop dwarfed Kelsey's.  Interestingly enough, he also accepted and then backed out of CofC the year before he left for Wichita St.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Hard disagree. Those are conference designations. Gonzaga is a top-10 program in a mid-major conference. Those two are not conflicting statements.

And Loyola simply doesn't have the resources, exposure, or long-term consistency to be considered on par with high-majors or top-10 programs. No one would confuse Loyola with Gonzaga. Maybe in 15-20 years.

So, Gonzaga is a major program in a mid-major conference.  We agree.

Loyola is not on the same level as Gonzaga.  Again, we agree.