HOME COOKING

[vogue65]

You can't beat home cooking.

You can't beat 8 days of practice, watching game film, one on one drills, running plays, good eating, home cooking, your home bed.

My takeaway from watching games this year is that the home audience does not matter.
I love going to games in person, rooting in person.

This year has been a test of teams, referees, the game itself without the distraction of the claims of home court advantage.  Home court advantage is a myth.  Home cooking is real, travel, and rest days are real.

On the subject of Providence, they are a good team and should not have been defeated by 10 points.  The announcers said during the game that Duke was a half step slow???
The announcers mentioned that Providence had been on the road.  Were they saying that home cooking matters.

[brewcity77]

Then why is homecourt advantage worth less in this season than any other in NCAA history?

[The Sultan]

You can't beat home cooking.

You can't beat 8 days of practice, watching game film, one on one drills, running plays, good eating, home cooking, your home bed.

My takeaway from watching games this year is that the home audience does not matter.

Your eyeballs are not reflecting reality.  Home teams are losing games at a rate way higher than normal.

[PGsHeroes32]

You can't beat home cooking.

You can't beat 8 days of practice, watching game film, one on one drills, running plays, good eating, home cooking, your home bed.

My takeaway from watching games this year is that the home audience does not matter.
I love going to games in person, rooting in person.

This year has been a test of teams, referees, the game itself without the distraction of the claims of home court advantage.  Home court advantage is a myth.  Home cooking is real, travel, and rest days are real.

On the subject of Providence, they are a good team and should not have been defeated by 10 points.  The announcers said during the game that Duke was a half step slow???
The announcers mentioned that Providence had been on the road.  Were they saying that home cooking matters.

Last night was our first home conference win. We have 4 home losses already this year.

Clearly, things are a little different.

[Newsdreams]

Last night was our first home conference win. We have 4 home losses already this year.

Clearly, things are a little different.

Yep fans make a big difference..

[vogue65]

Then why is homecourt advantage worth less in this season than any other in NCAA history?

That's the po8nt.

[vogue65]

Your eyeballs are not reflecting reality.  Home teams are losing games at a rate way higher than normal.

That's the point.  Home teams are losing, why?  Because it home court is a myth.  It is a marketing ploy to sell tickets.  Nevertheless, I would love going to a game in person.  Would my presence make a difference in the outcome, no.  If no, then what does?  I suggest preperation time is a significant factor.

Using numbers can be very deceptive.  For example, a home team may have just come home after a road trip while the visitor may have had a week to prepare. 

[Galway Eagle]

That's the point.  Home teams are losing, why?  Because it home court is a myth.  It is a marketing ploy to sell tickets.  Nevertheless, I would love going to a game in person.  Would my presence make a difference in the outcome, no.  If no, then what does?  I suggest preperation time is a significant factor.

Using numbers can be very deceptive.  For example, a home team may have just come home after a road trip while the visitor may have had a week to prepare.

So it's a coincidence that home court advantage has gone down this year vs when crowds are there?

[vogue65]

Last night was our first home conference win. We have 4 home losses already this year.

Clearly, things are a little different.

That's the point.  Where is the home court advantage?  Is it in the audience?
Where our home court losses a freshman team vs. a more experienced team? 

The confusion is one situation Providence vs.  M.U. vs. a larger sample. 
The M.U. home losses is a larger, but still small sample.
Nationally we have a larger sample with many details we don't know.

[The Sultan]

That's the point.  Home teams are losing, why?  Because it home court is a myth.  It is a marketing ploy to sell tickets.  Nevertheless, I would love going to a game in person.  Would my presence make a difference in the outcome, no.  If no, then what does?  I suggest preperation time is a significant factor.

Using numbers can be very deceptive.  For example, a home team may have just come home after a road trip while the visitor may have had a week to prepare. 

Home court is not a myth.  Usually home teams win 60+% of their games and on average score 3+ more points than their opponents.  Both are significant down this year.

[vogue65]

Home court is not a myth.  Usually home teams win 60+% of their games and on average score 3+ more points than their opponents.  Both are significant down this year.

Why?

[The Sultan]

Why?

Well the only substantive thing to change is the lack of fans.  Fans can energize the home team and distract the visitors.

[vogue65]

Well the only substantive thing to change is the lack of fans.  Fans can energize the home team and distract the visitors.

Oh boy.
Then why are home teams losing?

[The Big East]

That's the point.  Where is the home court advantage?  Is it in the audience?
Where our home court losses a freshman team vs. a more experienced team? 

The confusion is one situation Providence vs.  M.U. vs. a larger sample. 
The M.U. home losses is a larger, but still small sample.
Nationally we have a larger sample with many details we don't know.

This is not something to over think. Homecourt ,with fans provides,  a real advantage that is proven statistically and with the eye test. Especially when your team is better than average.   

I think this year with no fans,  less experienced teams in road games,  do not have to overcome the fans. 

[brewcity77]

Oh boy.
Then why are home teams losing?

If you read the response you quoted, the answer to your question is in the response.

Well the only substantive thing to change is the lack of fans.  Fans can energize the home team and distract the visitors.

I would add that fans can also sway the officials. Fouls are being called at a lower rate in favor of home teams this year.

[The Equalizer]

Two thoughts:

1. How much of the reduced home-court advantage is a result of fewer buy games being played?   If you're only looking at Big East teams, of course there is less of a home-court advantage, because most teams gave up 3 to 6 home wins by cancelling buy games.

2. Are there any statistics comparing conference games only?  And if so, can you really draw any conclusions until the season has played out?  For example, we played Villanova at home Georgetown on the road--results of those two games would indicate that the road team has a clear advantage.  But when we play the two return games, I still expect we win both Georgetown games and lose both Villanova games.

[brewcity77]

Two thoughts:

1. How much of the reduced home-court advantage is a result of fewer buy games being played?   If you're only looking at Big East teams, of course there is less of a home-court advantage, because most teams gave up 3 to 6 home wins by cancelling buy games.

2. Are there any statistics comparing conference games only?  And if so, can you really draw any conclusions until the season has played out?  For example, we played Villanova at home Georgetown on the road--results of those two games would indicate that the road team has a clear advantage.  But when we play the two return games, I still expect we win both Georgetown games and lose both Villanova games.

In Pomeroy's article, he only looked at conference games. In general, teams win home conference games at about a 61% rate. This year it's around 56%, which would be a record low.

[vogue65]

Two thoughts:

1. How much of the reduced home-court advantage is a result of fewer buy games being played?   If you're only looking at Big East teams, of course there is less of a home-court advantage, because most teams gave up 3 to 6 home wins by cancelling buy games.

2. Are there any statistics comparing conference games only?  And if so, can you really draw any conclusions until the season has played out?  For example, we played Villanova at home Georgetown on the road--results of those two games would indicate that the road team has a clear advantage.  But when we play the two return games, I still expect we win both Georgetown games and lose both Villanova games.

Well said.
I think my real gripe is with all the numbers used without in depth analysis.
Again, the Providence game is a good example of the advantage of 8 days of preperation.
Home cooking is just a headline.
I could have said TRAVEL IMPACT ON WON LOSS RECORDS.

[brewcity77]

Well said.
I think my real gripe is with all the numbers used without in depth analysis.
Again, the Providence game is a good example of the advantage of 8 days of preperation.
Home cooking is just a headline.
I could have said TRAVEL IMPACT ON WON LOSS RECORDS.

[vogue65]

I don't understand what you are saying.

[brewcity77]

I don't understand what you are saying.

Your gripe is with numbers. Any time math comes up, you get all spun up into threads like this. I don't know what math did to you, but I'm sorry it's created this clear bias in you against numbers and analytics.

[avid1010]

so next year when the betting lines give a greater impact on home-court advantage...take the away team on a modified line giving an extra point and you'll have a license to print money.   

plenty of sql based on length of layoff...it's a factor as well. 

[vogue65]

Your gripe is with numbers. Any time math comes up, you get all spun up into threads like this. I don't know what math did to you, but I'm sorry it's created this clear bias in you against numbers and analytics.

My career was in actuarial science, I have seen and worked with more numbers than you can imagine.  The old saying that "figures don't lie, but liers can figure" sometimes apply.

Simplistic use of limited data and drawing erroneous conclusions is my problem. 
My question is, what are the facts benind the obvious numbers.  W/L home and away record is only a starting point.  What are the decrements behind the home court advantage argument?

Why was the line on the Providence game so far off?
Because the book was balancing the bets?
The so-called numbers people did not factor in home cooking?

I think the Covid season is an excellent opportunity to do some serious analysis.  I would like to see more curves and what is behind the numbers.

Since you asked, my suspision of numbers based decision making started with the body counts during the Vietnam war. 

[brewcity77]

My career was in actuarial science, I have seen and worked with more numbers than you can imagine.  The old saying that "figures don't lie, but liers can figure" sometimes apply.

Simplistic use of limited data and drawing erroneous conclusions is my problem. 
My question is, what are the facts benind the obvious numbers.  W/L home and away record is only a starting point.  What are the decrements behind the home court advantage argument?

Why was the line on the Providence game so far off?
Because the book was balancing the bets?
The so-called numbers people did not factor in home cooking?

I think the Covid season is an excellent opportunity to do some serious analysis.  I would like to see more curves and what is behind the numbers.

Since you asked, my suspision of numbers based decision making started with the body counts during the Vietnam war.

In order...

Your past isn't really relevant. What's relevant is how you behave when numbers come out. You constantly question the numbers, but never bother doing the research to determine what the number presented to you actually mean. You complain about them without understanding their context. To me, that's just lazy. And when given explanations, you just spin away from it and try to fight the match harder. Seems like it's just trolling, but that you are now starting threads about it without bothering to read the research that's been done already, that's just lazy.

Why do you believe the PC line was far off? A three-point line is right between 1 & 2 possessions. In the final 18:03 of the game, it was a two-possession game for 13:16. So for 73.5% of the last 18 minutes, the line was pretty much right on. I guess the line was "so far off" because Marquette made 4 free throws in the final minute.

The book balancing the bets? No. The line wasn't off.

No. Again, the line wasn't off.

Sign up for kenpom and read all his blog posts. Sign up for The Athletic and read all the work they do on analytics. Research Torvik, Haslam, and all the various bracketologists. From a Marquette perspective, become familiar with Paint Touches, Anonymous Eagle, Cracked Sidewalks, and The Golden Breakdown. And if you "have seen and worked with more numbers" than I can imagine, why not do the research yourself? Create your own home court (or home cooking, if you'd rather) metric and go on a game-by-game basis through all 345 active programs and share your results.

Or just make do with what others here are happy to share.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Here's where I'm at.