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* Next up: NC State

Marquette
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Marquette vs

NC State

Date/Time: Mar 29, 2024, 6:09 pm
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Schedule for 2023-24
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Author Topic: Winning Time  (Read 11741 times)

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #25 on: January 12, 2021, 11:14:42 PM »
Normally I would say lockdown everyone else and let Duke get his but Koby did a good job on Bougknight even prior to the injury. If that can be replicated, I'm all for it. For the love of god, don't let Duke get catch and shoot threes. He's elite from beyond the arc and very average inside it. Whoever has him needs to stay inside his pocket and if he beats them off the dribble, so be it.

Koby and Wojo did an excellent job on Duke tonight. He came into the game averaging 5 attempts from 3 and they only gave him 4 long range opportunities. Duke bricked one open catch and shoot three but the others including his two makes were off the bounce. Inside the arc, Duke went 3/14 though I think one of those misses was the botched goaltending call. Brought in double teams from different spots but didn't double on every possession, kept Duke guessing and looking over his shoulder. Solid defensive gameplan. If 22% career 3P shooter Jimmy Nichols doesn't go 3/3 from range, doubling his season total, this would have been a laugher.
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We R Final Four

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #26 on: January 13, 2021, 01:06:20 PM »
As I stated earlier, the Nichols, Kunkels and Polleys of the world have their best games against us. I guess you live with that as a byproduct of shutting down the opposition’s top scorer.
BTW—I LOVE Koby’s moxie and his approach to answer the call to shut down the opposition’s best. Love it.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #27 on: January 15, 2021, 10:25:15 PM »
Tomorrow will be a real test. Not because St. John's is good, we have the greater talent for sure, but because St. John's is our antithesis. They play extremely fast (top 20 tempo in the country) and live in transition. They are frantic, aggressive defenders who will jump every passing lane and reach in constantly. They have turned over their opponents on 23% of their defensive possessions this season, good for top 35 in the nation. Most of those turnovers are the live ball variety which of course leads to transition buckets (their steal% is top 10 in the country). Combine this for our love of giving the ball away and you can see why this matchup will be a challenge for us.

Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Over the past three games, we have seen MU improve steadily on turnovers. 18.3% TO rate vs. GTWN (which is sad that 18.3% is an improvement), 15% vs. UConn, 12.3% vs. Providence. Hopefully this means that we have turned the corner on turnovers. If we keep it under control against the Red Storm, I'll be convinced.

St. John's was missing their starting center, Isaih Moore during their last game for "not meeting team standards." He's back at practice but supposedly will be a game time decision for tomorrow. Part of me actually wants Moore to play. If Moore is out, that may force Anderson to put Champagnie at the 5 with Earlington at the 4. That's an ultra fast 5 out lineup which has caused problems for us this season. Defensively, I'm not worried, I think we have more size and versatility than they do and will be able to stop them in the half court. Best defense tomorrow is a good offense. If they don't get transition buckets, they can't win.

St. John's is the best of the "bottom 4." Win tomorrow and I feel good about our chances of sweeping those 8 games....assuming we play those 8 games.
TAMU

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HutchwasClutch

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2021, 12:00:18 AM »
Tomorrow will be a real test. Not because St. John's is good, we have the greater talent for sure, but because St. John's is our antithesis. They play extremely fast (top 20 tempo in the country) and live in transition. They are frantic, aggressive defenders who will jump every passing lane and reach in constantly. They have turned over their opponents on 23% of their defensive possessions this season, good for top 35 in the nation. Most of those turnovers are the live ball variety which of course leads to transition buckets (their steal% is top 10 in the country). Combine this for our love of giving the ball away and you can see why this matchup will be a challenge for us.

Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Over the past three games, we have seen MU improve steadily on turnovers. 18.3% TO rate vs. GTWN (which is sad that 18.3% is an improvement), 15% vs. UConn, 12.3% vs. Providence. Hopefully this means that we have turned the corner on turnovers. If we keep it under control against the Red Storm, I'll be convinced.

St. John's was missing their starting center, Isaih Moore during their last game for "not meeting team standards." He's back at practice but supposedly will be a game time decision for tomorrow. Part of me actually wants Moore to play. If Moore is out, that may force Anderson to put Champagnie at the 5 with Earlington at the 4. That's an ultra fast 5 out lineup which has caused problems for us this season. Defensively, I'm not worried, I think we have more size and versatility than they do and will be able to stop them in the half court. Best defense tomorrow is a good offense. If they don't get transition buckets, they can't win.

St. John's is the best of the "bottom 4." Win tomorrow and I feel good about our chances of sweeping those 8 games....assuming we play those 8 games.

This is a good analysis.  Thanks TAMU. 

I don’t think we’ve turned any corner on turnovers.  It’s what we do under this coach. 

naginiF

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2021, 07:01:24 AM »
This is a good analysis.  Thanks TAMU. 

I don’t think we’ve turned any corner on turnovers.  It’s what we do under this coach.
+1 on the good analysis thanks TAMU.

If you took turnovers as an isolated stat, what would show an improvement/focus against St. John's? UConn level (9 or 15%), straight line improvement from GT to UConn to Prov to St. J (seems unrealistic given the opponent), season average, Oklahoma State level?

Knowing this is their one strength I'm curious as to what folks would settle for out of this team.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2021, 10:54:49 AM »
Moore is on the court warning up. Coach's decision if he plays or not
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MU82

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2021, 02:39:15 PM »
Tomorrow will be a real test. Not because St. John's is good, we have the greater talent for sure, but because St. John's is our antithesis. They play extremely fast (top 20 tempo in the country) and live in transition. They are frantic, aggressive defenders who will jump every passing lane and reach in constantly. They have turned over their opponents on 23% of their defensive possessions this season, good for top 35 in the nation. Most of those turnovers are the live ball variety which of course leads to transition buckets (their steal% is top 10 in the country). Combine this for our love of giving the ball away and you can see why this matchup will be a challenge for us.

Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Over the past three games, we have seen MU improve steadily on turnovers. 18.3% TO rate vs. GTWN (which is sad that 18.3% is an improvement), 15% vs. UConn, 12.3% vs. Providence. Hopefully this means that we have turned the corner on turnovers. If we keep it under control against the Red Storm, I'll be convinced.

St. John's was missing their starting center, Isaih Moore during their last game for "not meeting team standards." He's back at practice but supposedly will be a game time decision for tomorrow. Part of me actually wants Moore to play. If Moore is out, that may force Anderson to put Champagnie at the 5 with Earlington at the 4. That's an ultra fast 5 out lineup which has caused problems for us this season. Defensively, I'm not worried, I think we have more size and versatility than they do and will be able to stop them in the half court. Best defense tomorrow is a good offense. If they don't get transition buckets, they can't win.

St. John's is the best of the "bottom 4." Win tomorrow and I feel good about our chances of sweeping those 8 games....assuming we play those 8 games.

Good pregame analysis. Turnovers almost killed us. Almost. Thankfully, we were the better team, and we made the winning plays in "winning time."

2 down, 4 to go.
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muwarrior97

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #32 on: January 16, 2021, 07:20:52 PM »
Why do Wojo teams have so much trouble beating a press? With Turnovers? Weak/tentative entry passes and inbound plays? Love that the team didn’t quit and passed the the test they have failed before, still waiting for Wojo to show he can adjust and coach 🤷🏻‍♂️
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MU82

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #33 on: January 16, 2021, 08:45:41 PM »
Why do Wojo teams have so much trouble beating a press? With Turnovers? Weak/tentative entry passes and inbound plays? Love that the team didn’t quit and passed the the test they have failed before, still waiting for Wojo to show he can adjust and coach 🤷🏻‍♂️

Though I also am disappointed in some of those things, he in fact adjusted and coached today, and those moves helped us win.
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tower912

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #34 on: January 16, 2021, 08:47:27 PM »
Putting his starting guards back in was the adjustment
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MU82

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #35 on: January 16, 2021, 08:56:15 PM »
Put Lewis on Champagnie down the stretch. Put Theo at the top of the key the last defensive possession. Mixed zone in throughout the game. Had a beautiful inbounds play for a Cain lay-in. Got team to pull things together after a couple of big St. John’s runs. Among other things.

He doesn’t deserve a gold medal. It’s what he’s paid to do. But let’s not claim he made no adjustments or that he did no coaching.

There’s plenty to criticize Wojo for. Let’s not make things up, too.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #36 on: January 16, 2021, 09:34:14 PM »
Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Well, we didn't protect the ball the way we needed to (26.8 TO%) but pulled it out anyway. We dominated eFG%, barely won OR%, and won solidly in FTR. While I'm not thrilled about the turnovers, it was expected. SJU does that better than almost any team in the country. The OR% was the one I was frustrated by today. So many 50/50 balls that we didn't hang on to. It didn't help that every time we blocked a shot it either went out of bounds or straight to one of the Red Storm and every time they blocked one it went to one of them too!

Like I said above, at St. John's was the toughest game of the 8 games against the "Bottom 4." Despite the opinions of some, it's hard to go 8-0 against any group of high major teams in a season, just ask Creighton. Winning this one gives me more confidence in our ability to sweep the Bottom 4. Do that and with our wins over Creighton and Providence, we only need to steal a couple more to end up with a very nice conference record.
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MU82

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2021, 10:31:04 PM »
Well, we didn't protect the ball the way we needed to (26.8 TO%) but pulled it out anyway. We dominated eFG%, barely won OR%, and won solidly in FTR. While I'm not thrilled about the turnovers, it was expected. SJU does that better than almost any team in the country. The OR% was the one I was frustrated by today. So many 50/50 balls that we didn't hang on to. It didn't help that every time we blocked a shot it either went out of bounds or straight to one of the Red Storm and every time they blocked one it went to one of them too!

Obviously ... FTs matta-ed!
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Newsdreams

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #38 on: January 18, 2021, 10:45:26 AM »
Obviously ... FTs FTR matta-ed!
FIFY  ;D
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #39 on: January 22, 2021, 04:12:48 PM »
Well we missed the easiest of the six games when Georgetown caught the Vid so we go straight to the second easiest with a home matchup versus DePaul.

There's limited data on DePaul due to their extend bout of the Vid to kick off the season. They are 2-5 with the two wins coming against sub-200 opponents and the 5 losses all coming against Big East teams. They pushed Providence to the brink in the dunk, taking them to double OT before running out of gas. All the other losses have been by comfortable margins but weren't necessarily comfortable. Seton Hall and UConn both flopped their ways to wins as they couldn't score down the stretch...but neither could DePaul. Both kept the Blue Demons at arm's length but never really put them away.

Blue Demons only really do two things well. They are a top 75 team on the offensive glass, rebounding 31.7% of their misses. They also force a lot of turnovers with a defensive TORate of 21.8%. At first blush, I wanted to call them a worse St. John's but that's not really true. St. John's forces their TOs with heavy pressure to get live ball turnovers (their steal rate is top 10 in the country). DePaul's steal rate is outside the top 100, but their non-steal turnover rate is top 50. They use their length to frustrate offenses into making bad passes, stepping out of bounds, and travelling calls.

DePaul is offensively backwards. They are a decent (not good, decent) 3P shooting team at 34.1% (147th). They are a dreadful 2P shooting team at 49% (204th). Despite that, DePaul insists on attacking the bucket, scoring a whopping 58.4% of their points on 2P FGs. They are the 19th most reliant team on 2P FGs. That spells good news for Marquette as they have an elite 2P defense. Marquette is only allowing opponents to shoot 43.1% inside the arc (14th). Playing up tight on shooters and funneling them into a paint should lead to offensive disaster for the Blue Demons.

Marquette matches up well with DePaul, having superior size at every position except when Weems lines up as a 3. Weems and Moore are both capable outside shooter but have been disasters inside the arc. Lining up Carton and Cain on them should be enough to slow them down. Freeman-Liberty on the other hand has been a three point shooting disaster. He went 2/3 against WIU in their first game and is 3/19 since. Shouldn't give him an open look certainly, but he wasn't a good shooter at Valpo either so it's unlikely for that to change. McEwen should be able to slow him down inside the arc and force him to be more of a shooter. Hall and Ogenda are elite rebounders but don't bring much versatility in the offense. Their best moves are putbacks on offensive boards. Garcia and Theo should be able to handle them.

There's plenty that DePaul doesn't do well. They are a bad shooting team overall, they are absent on the defensive glass, and they foul too much on defense. There are two areas that they are dreadful in. They turn it over a ton, even more than us. They also don't draw fouls, despite their focus on working it inside the arc. We've seen Wojo let the defense be a little more aggressive the past few games. This would be a good one to continue that trend, there will be transition opportunities.

Marquette is favored by 9. They should win by even more than that. If we don't take care of the ball, I could see DePaul keeping it within single digits. If we don't take care of the ball and don't keep them off the offensive glass (which has been a problem lately) I could see a very dissatisfying win. If those two things happen, and either DePaul goes nuts from three or we go ice cold, then Scoop may need to be burned to the ground.
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panda

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #40 on: January 22, 2021, 04:16:53 PM »
Depaul has some talent, but they're also a Dave Leiato coached team. They've barely played this season. This game shouldn't be close.

Eldon

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #41 on: January 22, 2021, 04:34:31 PM »
Depaul has some talent, but they're also a Dave Leiato coached team. They've barely played this season. This game shouldn't be close.

But the DePaul players have fresh legs.

Our guys are exhausted.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #42 on: January 22, 2021, 04:52:40 PM »
But the DePaul players have fresh legs.

Our guys are exhausted.

Actually if I understand Vogue correctly, and I'm not sure that I do, he would argue that we have fresh legs because we haven't played for a week, and DePaul is exhausted because they played on Tuesday
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #43 on: January 25, 2021, 11:34:54 PM »
This game reinforced what I have felt about Wojo for a long time. He's good at the initial scout. He's good at the individual chess moves to win specific plays. He's terrible when the opponent does something unexpected. It catches him with his pants down and the recovery almost never comes or is too little too late when it happens.

In this case, Leitao changed up his defense from what they've been doing all season. In previous games, Leitao has been stretching his D out to cover three point shooters and force teams into the paint. This led to them having the Big East's best 3P defense but worst 2P defense. Against us, Leitao pulled all of his length into paint, packed the lane, went under every ball screen, and dared us to shoot. And we fell for it hook, line, and sinker. It felt very much like the second half of the Oklahoma State game. They packed the paint with long defenders and the coaches drew nothing up to counteract it. Passed along the perimeter until someone threw up an out of rhythm three. 33 3P attempts to 29 2P attempts against the worst 2P defense in the conference and best 3P defense in the conference cannot happen. That's a coaching failure.

While I still appreciate the 2P focused defense on the other end, it's become apparent to me that we have the personnel to be a team that jumps passing lanes and forces turnovers. Last season, I didn't think we had the players for it. This season, we do. We don't have to be St. John's or VCU's havoc defense, but it's clear that the coaching staff is holding players like Carton back from following their instincts on D in favor of this conservative team approach. I think the coaches are afraid of failure, afraid of mistakes leading to a loss, and that is a losing mentality that can infect the players. DePaul practically hands the ball away to their opponents and we let them be comfortable all game except for the one run in the second half. If you aren't going to draw something up to beat a team packing the paint on defense, then you have to beat the defense to the punch by pushing the tempo and scoring in transition.

The loss to DePaul essentially negates our win at Creighton. The problem with that, is that without the win at Creighton, our resume really isn't impressive in the slightest. It's a home win against Wisconsin while going 3-6 everyone else of consequence...and the 3 wins being the worst teams in that group of 9. I think 6-3 (assuming all remaining games are played without rescheduling the already cancelled ones) is necessary to get us back in the conversation and I still wouldn't feel comfortable unless we win some in the BET. I have very little hope that the team can get it done given what we've seen to date. At Providence will tell us a lot about the mental strength of our team. Rock bottom can a powerful motivator...or it can just mean an early grave.
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Shooter McGavin

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #44 on: January 26, 2021, 11:12:47 AM »
Good analysis TAMU.

Galway Eagle

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #45 on: January 26, 2021, 11:20:18 AM »
Is there a W-L record in that 6-3 that'd look better than others? I mean would we rather UConn Creighton and Xavier over Butler? Just curious
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #46 on: January 26, 2021, 11:22:57 AM »
This game reinforced what I have felt about Wojo for a long time. He's good at the initial scout. He's good at the individual chess moves to win specific plays. He's terrible when the opponent does something unexpected. It catches him with his pants down and the recovery almost never comes or is too little too late when it happens.

I meant to add a point to this paragraph. This is why Wojo overperforms against Wisconsin and Nova. Wisconsin doesn't deviate from their system and Wright doesn't really make adjustments, he just installs a set of key concepts that his players follow. Wojo is good at drawing up a game plan to counteract an opponent's strengths. But when the opponent zigs instead of zags, he doesn't know how to adjust on the fly. I think this is also why we often have previously unremarkable players going off against us (Kunkel, Polley, etc.) We can often shut down the best player, but assume that the secondary players will eventually miss the shots we give them.
TAMU

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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #47 on: January 26, 2021, 11:38:47 AM »
Is there a W-L record in that 6-3 that'd look better than others? I mean would we rather UConn Creighton and Xavier over Butler? Just curious

If you have to lose games, my personal opinion is that it's better to win the big games (Q1) and the bunnies (Q3/Q4) and lose the inbetween games (Q2). For our remaining schedule that would look like:

W at Providence (Q1B)
W vs Butler (Q3)
W vs Creighton (Q1B)
W at Seton Hall (Q1B)
L at Butler (Q2B)
W vs St. John's (Q3)
W at UConn (Q1B)
L at DePaul (Q3, but will likely become Q2B by end of season)
L vs Xavier (Q2A) 40

I have to say that I hope that doesn't happen because it would be real rough to finish 0-2 with a loss to DePaul after going 6-1. Though I think exchanging any of the Q1B wins for a win at DePaul could be fine. But again, that's what I think the ideal 6-3 finish would look like, not even close to the most likely one. Also again, given the totality of what I've seen this season, I don't think 6-3 is likely. I think it ends up 5-4 or 4-5.
TAMU

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MU82

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #48 on: January 26, 2021, 11:52:52 AM »
I meant to add a point to this paragraph. This is why Wojo overperforms against Wisconsin and Nova. Wisconsin doesn't deviate from their system and Wright doesn't really make adjustments, he just installs a set of key concepts that his players follow. Wojo is good at drawing up a game plan to counteract an opponent's strengths. But when the opponent zigs instead of zags, he doesn't know how to adjust on the fly. I think this is also why we often have previously unremarkable players going off against us (Kunkel, Polley, etc.) We can often shut down the best player, but assume that the secondary players will eventually miss the shots we give them.

In some strange way, doesn't this suggest a flaw in the coaching of Gard and Wright?

If they are superior to Wojo (which certainly Wright is), and if they have scouted (which they have), why wouldn't they also be prepared to throw a wrinkle at a coach who has proven time and again that he is incapable of making the proper adjustments on the fly?

I am in no way claiming Wojo is as good as Wright, and probably not Gard either. And obviously Wright's system works just fine against most everybody. I just thought this was interesting and curious. Maybe it's part of the reason why Gard hasn't won all that big.
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panda

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Re: Winning Time
« Reply #49 on: January 26, 2021, 02:02:55 PM »
In some strange way, doesn't this suggest a flaw in the coaching of Gard and Wright?

If they are superior to Wojo (which certainly Wright is), and if they have scouted (which they have), why wouldn't they also be prepared to throw a wrinkle at a coach who has proven time and again that he is incapable of making the proper adjustments on the fly?

I am in no way claiming Wojo is as good as Wright, and probably not Gard either. And obviously Wright's system works just fine against most everybody. I just thought this was interesting and curious. Maybe it's part of the reason why Gard hasn't won all that big.

I think it makes it a little bit harder to win multiple games in the tournament, but the program philosophy sets it self up for repeatable success. Players know what is expected of them on a yearly basis and parts become interchangeable when you’re not augmenting program philosophy every year.