Winning Time

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we are going to have a turnaround this season, it has to happen now. The next six games are all very winnable. I think we need to go 5-1 in this stretch to have a good chance of making the tournament. 4-2 there is still a chance but long odds as the schedule gets tougher. 3-3 or worse and I don't see a path to the tourney unless we go nuts down the stretch.

Providence on paper should be a good matchup for us. They are a poor three point shooting team with only two guys on the roster who have made double digit threes this season (and one of them is shooting under 30%). They are not a great defensive team. They themselves don't turn the ball over but they also don't force turnovers. They are good (not UConn good but still good) on the offensive glass but not on the defensive glass.  They don't draw a lot of fouls but they also don't foul their opponents often.

If Bynum is out, they will have a very short bench. They played 6 guys 22+ minutes against X and had two additional guys check in for 9 minutes combined. Wojo has shown some willingness to switch up the D this season, this wouldn't be a bad one to break a zone out for. Duke and Watson are the only ones that can really kill us. I think we have enough bigs to throw at Watson to wear him down. Normally I would say lockdown everyone else and let Duke get his but Koby did a good job on Bougknight even prior to the injury. If that can be replicated, I'm all for it. For the love of god, don't let Duke get catch and shoot threes. He's elite from beyond the arc and very average inside it. Whoever has him needs to stay inside his pocket and if he beats them off the dribble, so be it.

[MU82]

If we are going to have a turnaround this season, it has to happen now. The next six games are all very winnable. I think we need to go 5-1 in this stretch to have a good chance of making the tournament. 4-2 there is still a chance but long odds as the schedule gets tougher. 3-3 or worse and I don't see a path to the tourney unless we go nuts down the stretch.

Providence on paper should be a good matchup for us. They are a poor three point shooting team with only two guys on the roster who have made double digit threes this season (and one of them is shooting under 30%). They are not a great defensive team. They themselves don't turn the ball over but they also don't force turnovers. They are good (not UConn good but still good) on the offensive glass but not on the defensive glass.  They don't draw a lot of fouls but they also don't foul their opponents often.

If Bynum is out, they will have a very short bench. They played 6 guys 22+ minutes against X and had two additional guys check in for 9 minutes combined. Wojo has shown some willingness to switch up the D this season, this wouldn't be a bad one to break a zone out for. Duke and Watson are the only ones that can really kill us. I think we have enough bigs to throw at Watson to wear him down. Normally I would say lockdown everyone else and let Duke get his but Koby did a good job on Bougknight even prior to the injury. If that can be replicated, I'm all for it. For the love of god, don't let Duke get catch and shoot threes. He's elite from beyond the arc and very average inside it. Whoever has him needs to stay inside his pocket and if he beats them off the dribble, so be it.

Good stuff, TAMU, and I agree about this next stretch of games. 5-1 is realistic.

As for Duke, there is absolutely no excuse for leaving a great 3-point shooter open. Just don't double off him. Let the bigs defend their own guys.

[MuggsyB]

Excellent post.  5-1 or 6-0 is absolutely doable starting tomorrow night.  We have no choice and must drop the hammer vs the Dence.  Remember they played yesterday, we have a significant advantage. It's imperative we get things back on track.

[Johnny B]

last stand

[Silent Verbal]

last stand

The end of Wojo's last two seasons does bear a strong resemblance to the conclusion of Custer's military career.

[We R Final Four]

It seems that several times this year the opposition has had an unheralded player beat us.....who was not previewed.
PC is a tough team.....I expect yet another tough game.

[bilsu]

It is hard to see this team being successful. We have no go to player as indicated by our stud of the game chart. Someone can verify this, but I feel like every player that won stud of the game had a disappointing game the next game.

Wojo is right that this is an inside team. However, in today's game you win with three point shooting. Trying to beat teams in the Big East with two point shots is often not going to end well.

[MU82]

It is hard to see this team being successful. We have no go to player as indicated by our stud of the game chart. Someone can verify this, but I feel like every player that won stud of the game had a disappointing game the next game.

Wojo is right that this is an inside team. However, in today's game you win with three point shooting. Trying to beat teams in the Big East with two point shots is often not going to end well.

And last year we couldn't be successful because we had only one player to go to.

I would argue that we definitely have a go-to guy, though. It's DJ. He might not always be the go-to scorer, but he will be one our offense goes to - or at least should go to, whether it's to score the big bucket or make the big pass. Or, in the case of the end of the Georgetown game, both.

[79Warrior]

Excellent post.  5-1 or 6-0 is absolutely doable starting tomorrow night.  We have no choice and must drop the hammer vs the Dence.  Remember they played yesterday, we have a significant advantage. It's imperative we get things back on track.

Nothing about this team looks 5-1 or 6-0 to me. I hope i’m wrong but I think that is very optimistic.

[WarriorFan]

The optimism is inviting but lets not forget this is the BEAST.  PC has one of the best game coaches in the collegiate ranks and he will no doubt have a plan to neutralize Marquette advantages while leveraging PC toughness, defense, and "in the lane" talent.

[GooooMarquette]

We got this.

[MU82]

The optimism is inviting but lets not forget this is the BEAST.  PC has one of the best game coaches in the collegiate ranks and he will no doubt have a plan to neutralize Marquette advantages while leveraging PC toughness, defense, and "in the lane" talent.

Well, "one of the best game coaches in the collegiate ranks" doesn't even have a winning record over the worst coach in the history of mankind, so I'm not sure what to make of your declaration.

[panda]

Watson and Duke are very, very good. Everyone else. Not so much.

We’re the better team top to bottom, but Watson will be hard to stop if Theo can’t stay on the floor. Need to limit Duke’s three point attempts. If we do those two things, we should win.

[MuggsyB]

Nothing about this team looks 5-1 or 6-0 to me. I hope i’m wrong but I think that is very optimistic.

I get that but Gtown, Butler, St.J, and DePaul  are not exactly world beaters.  We have to take advantage of this part of our schedule.  I believe we can but of course there are concerns. Clearly our backcourt and JLew need to break out of their shooting slumps for starters.

[BCHoopster]

I get that but Gtown, Butler, St.J, and DePaul  are not exactly world beaters.  We have to take advantage of this part of our schedule.  I believe we can but of course there are concerns. Clearly our backcourt and JLew need to break out of their shooting slumps for starters.

Its all about hitting shots, so far, they have not done that.  What makes you think it will happen now.  This is a poor 3 point shooting team and starts with those guards.
Carton is very inconsistent as is Koby.  Cain is the only one showing consistency.  The first time I saw Lewis, my initial comment is he could not shoot the ball, I think I
was correct.  He is not bad, he is really bad so far.  Can not be any worse then his start so far.   Hope he can make some shots tomorrow, as Providence will let him have
some shots at the top of the key.  Providence is a better team, trying to figure out why some MU scoopers think we are more talented,  I do not see it. There much more
athletic than MU.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I mean we have 4 guys who have made double digit 3Ps with 40% accuracy or better and a fifth guy who has made double digit 3Ps with 33% accuracy. Our team 3P% is top 50 in the country. If that's a poor 3p shooting team....I don't know what a great 3p shooting team would look like. Maybe 5 Steph Currys?

[MuggsyB]

I think it's a little misleading.    Three of our top five offensive players have shot very poorly in recent games.  Carton, McEwen, and Lewis have missed wide open shots.  We have to get more from Carton in particular and our three guards.  Elliot isn't going to have a Creighton game every outing but it shouldn't be a fluke either.  It's not totally black and white but because our depth is not what we all anticipated, production from our backcourt will determine our success.  This is a team that rarely gets easy buckets or scores in transition.  Our guards have to pick it up and play with more consistency.

[1SE]

Yeah, let's hope we're at an inflection point in the season (and really in Wojo's tenure). I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[MU82]

I mean we have 4 guys who have made double digit 3Ps with 40% accuracy or better and a fifth guy who has made double digit 3Ps with 33% accuracy. Our team 3P% is top 50 in the country. If that's a poor 3p shooting team....I don't know what a great 3p shooting team would look like. Maybe 5 Steph Currys?

Yeah, I just so happened to look up our stats before I saw this comment from you, TAMU.

We rank third in the Big East in 3-point shooting at .372; had we made one more, we'd be second. We are NOT a "poor" 3-point team.

Why it might "seem" worse to some:

1. Lewis has been left wide open and keeps missing. He is 0 for his last 12 and has made only 1 trey in the last 8 games. Recency bias comes into play here; Lewis is clanking 'em left and right in recent games, and he's been left more wide open than anybody not named Theo.

2. We have had a few stretches where we couldn't buy a 3. Even our best shooters couldn't make any, and those cost us 2-3 games.

3. DJ has the ball a lot and he has been ice-cold lately: 0-7 against UConn and GT. Before that, he was shooting 38% for the season and had made 11-20, including 5-7 against Creighton.

4. Dawson had a 3-game stretch where he was 0-8. He's been pretty streaky and seems to lose confidence sometimes.

5. Elliott has a beautiful shot but his defense is quite bad so it's hard to keep him on the court for long stretches.

6. I blame Theo. He's missed 1 in a row after being the best 3-point shooter in the nation.

[We R Final Four]

We are currently 2-4 in conference.
I think we need to get 5 of the next 6, and get to 7-5 through this stretch.
Even winning 4 of the next 6 leaves us at .500 and doesn’t look great with respect to the remaining games, the tournament....and maybe Wojo.

[CTWarrior]

I think it's a little misleading.    Three of our top five offensive players have shot very poorly in recent games.  Carton, McEwen, and Lewis have missed wide open shots.  We have to get more from Carton in particular and our three guards.  Elliot isn't going to have a Creighton game every outing but it shouldn't be a fluke either.  It's not totally black and white but because our depth is not what we all anticipated, production from our backcourt will determine our success.  This is a team that rarely gets easy buckets or scores in transition.  Our guards have to pick it up and play with more consistency.

I agree Lewis has gotten open looks, but that is because the opposition doesn't appear to be too worried about him making them.  I don't think our other shooters are getting the open, in-rhythm three pointers lately.  I think the poor shooting is a direct result of too much dribbling, and not enough player movement and not enough ball movement.  That we have "tired legs" at the end of the game with all the standing around we do on offense is troubling.

[MU82]

I agree Lewis has gotten open looks, but that is because the opposition doesn't appear to be too worried about him making them.  I don't think our other shooters are getting the open, in-rhythm three pointers lately.  I think the poor shooting is a direct result of too much dribbling, and not enough player movement and not enough ball movement.  That we have "tired legs" at the end of the game with all the standing around we do on offense is troubling.

Reasonable.

Thing is, as in previous years, there are times where we have beautiful ball-movement. But all too often, it's exactly as you said. Drives me nuts!

[MuggsyB]

Reasonable.

Thing is, as in previous years, there are times where we have beautiful ball-movement. But all too often, it's exactly as you said. Drives me nuts!

You are exactly right.  We generally don't get quality looks in our h-c offense.  Part of the reason is guys aren't creating space off the ball.  We aren't physical enough or apparently don't  screen effectively.  So while some of it is poor ball movement/passing , the bigger problem is we don't find open areas to get shots in rhythm.

[jesmu84]

You are exactly right.  We generally don't get quality looks in our h-c offense.  Part of the reason is guys aren't creating space off the ball.  We aren't physical enough or apparently don't  screen effectively.  So while some of it is poor ball movement/passing , the bigger problem is we don't find open areas to get shots in rhythm.

The bigger problem, to me, is we intentionally slow the ball to play in the halfcourt when we have chances to play in transition.

We built a lead against uconn by pushing. Then took all the air out of the ball in the 2nd half

[MU82]

1 down, 5 to go.

We Are Marquette!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Normally I would say lockdown everyone else and let Duke get his but Koby did a good job on Bougknight even prior to the injury. If that can be replicated, I'm all for it. For the love of god, don't let Duke get catch and shoot threes. He's elite from beyond the arc and very average inside it. Whoever has him needs to stay inside his pocket and if he beats them off the dribble, so be it.

Koby and Wojo did an excellent job on Duke tonight. He came into the game averaging 5 attempts from 3 and they only gave him 4 long range opportunities. Duke bricked one open catch and shoot three but the others including his two makes were off the bounce. Inside the arc, Duke went 3/14 though I think one of those misses was the botched goaltending call. Brought in double teams from different spots but didn't double on every possession, kept Duke guessing and looking over his shoulder. Solid defensive gameplan. If 22% career 3P shooter Jimmy Nichols doesn't go 3/3 from range, doubling his season total, this would have been a laugher.

[We R Final Four]

As I stated earlier, the Nichols, Kunkels and Polleys of the world have their best games against us. I guess you live with that as a byproduct of shutting down the opposition’s top scorer.
BTW—I LOVE Koby’s moxie and his approach to answer the call to shut down the opposition’s best. Love it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Tomorrow will be a real test. Not because St. John's is good, we have the greater talent for sure, but because St. John's is our antithesis. They play extremely fast (top 20 tempo in the country) and live in transition. They are frantic, aggressive defenders who will jump every passing lane and reach in constantly. They have turned over their opponents on 23% of their defensive possessions this season, good for top 35 in the nation. Most of those turnovers are the live ball variety which of course leads to transition buckets (their steal% is top 10 in the country). Combine this for our love of giving the ball away and you can see why this matchup will be a challenge for us.

Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Over the past three games, we have seen MU improve steadily on turnovers. 18.3% TO rate vs. GTWN (which is sad that 18.3% is an improvement), 15% vs. UConn, 12.3% vs. Providence. Hopefully this means that we have turned the corner on turnovers. If we keep it under control against the Red Storm, I'll be convinced.

St. John's was missing their starting center, Isaih Moore during their last game for "not meeting team standards." He's back at practice but supposedly will be a game time decision for tomorrow. Part of me actually wants Moore to play. If Moore is out, that may force Anderson to put Champagnie at the 5 with Earlington at the 4. That's an ultra fast 5 out lineup which has caused problems for us this season. Defensively, I'm not worried, I think we have more size and versatility than they do and will be able to stop them in the half court. Best defense tomorrow is a good offense. If they don't get transition buckets, they can't win.

St. John's is the best of the "bottom 4." Win tomorrow and I feel good about our chances of sweeping those 8 games....assuming we play those 8 games.

[HutchwasClutch]

Tomorrow will be a real test. Not because St. John's is good, we have the greater talent for sure, but because St. John's is our antithesis. They play extremely fast (top 20 tempo in the country) and live in transition. They are frantic, aggressive defenders who will jump every passing lane and reach in constantly. They have turned over their opponents on 23% of their defensive possessions this season, good for top 35 in the nation. Most of those turnovers are the live ball variety which of course leads to transition buckets (their steal% is top 10 in the country). Combine this for our love of giving the ball away and you can see why this matchup will be a challenge for us.

Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Over the past three games, we have seen MU improve steadily on turnovers. 18.3% TO rate vs. GTWN (which is sad that 18.3% is an improvement), 15% vs. UConn, 12.3% vs. Providence. Hopefully this means that we have turned the corner on turnovers. If we keep it under control against the Red Storm, I'll be convinced.

St. John's was missing their starting center, Isaih Moore during their last game for "not meeting team standards." He's back at practice but supposedly will be a game time decision for tomorrow. Part of me actually wants Moore to play. If Moore is out, that may force Anderson to put Champagnie at the 5 with Earlington at the 4. That's an ultra fast 5 out lineup which has caused problems for us this season. Defensively, I'm not worried, I think we have more size and versatility than they do and will be able to stop them in the half court. Best defense tomorrow is a good offense. If they don't get transition buckets, they can't win.

St. John's is the best of the "bottom 4." Win tomorrow and I feel good about our chances of sweeping those 8 games....assuming we play those 8 games.

This is a good analysis.  Thanks TAMU. 

I don’t think we’ve turned any corner on turnovers.  It’s what we do under this coach. 

[naginiF]

This is a good analysis.  Thanks TAMU. 

I don’t think we’ve turned any corner on turnovers.  It’s what we do under this coach.

+1 on the good analysis thanks TAMU.

If you took turnovers as an isolated stat, what would show an improvement/focus against St. John's? UConn level (9 or 15%), straight line improvement from GT to UConn to Prov to St. J (seems unrealistic given the opponent), season average, Oklahoma State level?

Knowing this is their one strength I'm curious as to what folks would settle for out of this team.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Moore is on the court warning up. Coach's decision if he plays or not

[MU82]

Tomorrow will be a real test. Not because St. John's is good, we have the greater talent for sure, but because St. John's is our antithesis. They play extremely fast (top 20 tempo in the country) and live in transition. They are frantic, aggressive defenders who will jump every passing lane and reach in constantly. They have turned over their opponents on 23% of their defensive possessions this season, good for top 35 in the nation. Most of those turnovers are the live ball variety which of course leads to transition buckets (their steal% is top 10 in the country). Combine this for our love of giving the ball away and you can see why this matchup will be a challenge for us.

Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Over the past three games, we have seen MU improve steadily on turnovers. 18.3% TO rate vs. GTWN (which is sad that 18.3% is an improvement), 15% vs. UConn, 12.3% vs. Providence. Hopefully this means that we have turned the corner on turnovers. If we keep it under control against the Red Storm, I'll be convinced.

St. John's was missing their starting center, Isaih Moore during their last game for "not meeting team standards." He's back at practice but supposedly will be a game time decision for tomorrow. Part of me actually wants Moore to play. If Moore is out, that may force Anderson to put Champagnie at the 5 with Earlington at the 4. That's an ultra fast 5 out lineup which has caused problems for us this season. Defensively, I'm not worried, I think we have more size and versatility than they do and will be able to stop them in the half court. Best defense tomorrow is a good offense. If they don't get transition buckets, they can't win.

St. John's is the best of the "bottom 4." Win tomorrow and I feel good about our chances of sweeping those 8 games....assuming we play those 8 games.

Good pregame analysis. Turnovers almost killed us. Almost. Thankfully, we were the better team, and we made the winning plays in "winning time."

2 down, 4 to go.

[muwarrior97]

Why do Wojo teams have so much trouble beating a press? With Turnovers? Weak/tentative entry passes and inbound plays? Love that the team didn’t quit and passed the the test they have failed before, still waiting for Wojo to show he can adjust and coach 🤷🏻‍♂️

[MU82]

Why do Wojo teams have so much trouble beating a press? With Turnovers? Weak/tentative entry passes and inbound plays? Love that the team didn’t quit and passed the the test they have failed before, still waiting for Wojo to show he can adjust and coach 🤷🏻‍♂️

Though I also am disappointed in some of those things, he in fact adjusted and coached today, and those moves helped us win.

[tower912]

Putting his starting guards back in was the adjustment

[MU82]

Put Lewis on Champagnie down the stretch. Put Theo at the top of the key the last defensive possession. Mixed zone in throughout the game. Had a beautiful inbounds play for a Cain lay-in. Got team to pull things together after a couple of big St. John’s runs. Among other things.

He doesn’t deserve a gold medal. It’s what he’s paid to do. But let’s not claim he made no adjustments or that he did no coaching.

There’s plenty to criticize Wojo for. Let’s not make things up, too.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Honestly, this will come down to how well we protect the ball. Besides turning over opponents, St. John's is decidedly mediocre or just downright bad in all the significant categories. They are a meh shooting team, meh rebounding team, they don't draw fouls and foul too often on defense. If they don't get a turnover, they are a terrible defensive team. Opponents are shooting a fiery 55.5 eFG% against them (bottom 30 in the country). Don't give the ball away and we are likely to score.

Well, we didn't protect the ball the way we needed to (26.8 TO%) but pulled it out anyway. We dominated eFG%, barely won OR%, and won solidly in FTR. While I'm not thrilled about the turnovers, it was expected. SJU does that better than almost any team in the country. The OR% was the one I was frustrated by today. So many 50/50 balls that we didn't hang on to. It didn't help that every time we blocked a shot it either went out of bounds or straight to one of the Red Storm and every time they blocked one it went to one of them too!

Like I said above, at St. John's was the toughest game of the 8 games against the "Bottom 4." Despite the opinions of some, it's hard to go 8-0 against any group of high major teams in a season, just ask Creighton. Winning this one gives me more confidence in our ability to sweep the Bottom 4. Do that and with our wins over Creighton and Providence, we only need to steal a couple more to end up with a very nice conference record.

[MU82]

Well, we didn't protect the ball the way we needed to (26.8 TO%) but pulled it out anyway. We dominated eFG%, barely won OR%, and won solidly in FTR. While I'm not thrilled about the turnovers, it was expected. SJU does that better than almost any team in the country. The OR% was the one I was frustrated by today. So many 50/50 balls that we didn't hang on to. It didn't help that every time we blocked a shot it either went out of bounds or straight to one of the Red Storm and every time they blocked one it went to one of them too!

Obviously ... FTs matta-ed!

[Newsdreams]

Obviously ... FTs FTR matta-ed!

FIFY 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Well we missed the easiest of the six games when Georgetown caught the Vid so we go straight to the second easiest with a home matchup versus DePaul.

There's limited data on DePaul due to their extend bout of the Vid to kick off the season. They are 2-5 with the two wins coming against sub-200 opponents and the 5 losses all coming against Big East teams. They pushed Providence to the brink in the dunk, taking them to double OT before running out of gas. All the other losses have been by comfortable margins but weren't necessarily comfortable. Seton Hall and UConn both flopped their ways to wins as they couldn't score down the stretch...but neither could DePaul. Both kept the Blue Demons at arm's length but never really put them away.

Blue Demons only really do two things well. They are a top 75 team on the offensive glass, rebounding 31.7% of their misses. They also force a lot of turnovers with a defensive TORate of 21.8%. At first blush, I wanted to call them a worse St. John's but that's not really true. St. John's forces their TOs with heavy pressure to get live ball turnovers (their steal rate is top 10 in the country). DePaul's steal rate is outside the top 100, but their non-steal turnover rate is top 50. They use their length to frustrate offenses into making bad passes, stepping out of bounds, and travelling calls.

DePaul is offensively backwards. They are a decent (not good, decent) 3P shooting team at 34.1% (147th). They are a dreadful 2P shooting team at 49% (204th). Despite that, DePaul insists on attacking the bucket, scoring a whopping 58.4% of their points on 2P FGs. They are the 19th most reliant team on 2P FGs. That spells good news for Marquette as they have an elite 2P defense. Marquette is only allowing opponents to shoot 43.1% inside the arc (14th). Playing up tight on shooters and funneling them into a paint should lead to offensive disaster for the Blue Demons.

Marquette matches up well with DePaul, having superior size at every position except when Weems lines up as a 3. Weems and Moore are both capable outside shooter but have been disasters inside the arc. Lining up Carton and Cain on them should be enough to slow them down. Freeman-Liberty on the other hand has been a three point shooting disaster. He went 2/3 against WIU in their first game and is 3/19 since. Shouldn't give him an open look certainly, but he wasn't a good shooter at Valpo either so it's unlikely for that to change. McEwen should be able to slow him down inside the arc and force him to be more of a shooter. Hall and Ogenda are elite rebounders but don't bring much versatility in the offense. Their best moves are putbacks on offensive boards. Garcia and Theo should be able to handle them.

There's plenty that DePaul doesn't do well. They are a bad shooting team overall, they are absent on the defensive glass, and they foul too much on defense. There are two areas that they are dreadful in. They turn it over a ton, even more than us. They also don't draw fouls, despite their focus on working it inside the arc. We've seen Wojo let the defense be a little more aggressive the past few games. This would be a good one to continue that trend, there will be transition opportunities.

Marquette is favored by 9. They should win by even more than that. If we don't take care of the ball, I could see DePaul keeping it within single digits. If we don't take care of the ball and don't keep them off the offensive glass (which has been a problem lately) I could see a very dissatisfying win. If those two things happen, and either DePaul goes nuts from three or we go ice cold, then Scoop may need to be burned to the ground.

[panda]

Depaul has some talent, but they're also a Dave Leiato coached team. They've barely played this season. This game shouldn't be close.

[Eldon]

Depaul has some talent, but they're also a Dave Leiato coached team. They've barely played this season. This game shouldn't be close.

But the DePaul players have fresh legs.

Our guys are exhausted.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

But the DePaul players have fresh legs.

Our guys are exhausted.

Actually if I understand Vogue correctly, and I'm not sure that I do, he would argue that we have fresh legs because we haven't played for a week, and DePaul is exhausted because they played on Tuesday

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This game reinforced what I have felt about Wojo for a long time. He's good at the initial scout. He's good at the individual chess moves to win specific plays. He's terrible when the opponent does something unexpected. It catches him with his pants down and the recovery almost never comes or is too little too late when it happens.

In this case, Leitao changed up his defense from what they've been doing all season. In previous games, Leitao has been stretching his D out to cover three point shooters and force teams into the paint. This led to them having the Big East's best 3P defense but worst 2P defense. Against us, Leitao pulled all of his length into paint, packed the lane, went under every ball screen, and dared us to shoot. And we fell for it hook, line, and sinker. It felt very much like the second half of the Oklahoma State game. They packed the paint with long defenders and the coaches drew nothing up to counteract it. Passed along the perimeter until someone threw up an out of rhythm three. 33 3P attempts to 29 2P attempts against the worst 2P defense in the conference and best 3P defense in the conference cannot happen. That's a coaching failure.

While I still appreciate the 2P focused defense on the other end, it's become apparent to me that we have the personnel to be a team that jumps passing lanes and forces turnovers. Last season, I didn't think we had the players for it. This season, we do. We don't have to be St. John's or VCU's havoc defense, but it's clear that the coaching staff is holding players like Carton back from following their instincts on D in favor of this conservative team approach. I think the coaches are afraid of failure, afraid of mistakes leading to a loss, and that is a losing mentality that can infect the players. DePaul practically hands the ball away to their opponents and we let them be comfortable all game except for the one run in the second half. If you aren't going to draw something up to beat a team packing the paint on defense, then you have to beat the defense to the punch by pushing the tempo and scoring in transition.

The loss to DePaul essentially negates our win at Creighton. The problem with that, is that without the win at Creighton, our resume really isn't impressive in the slightest. It's a home win against Wisconsin while going 3-6 everyone else of consequence...and the 3 wins being the worst teams in that group of 9. I think 6-3 (assuming all remaining games are played without rescheduling the already cancelled ones) is necessary to get us back in the conversation and I still wouldn't feel comfortable unless we win some in the BET. I have very little hope that the team can get it done given what we've seen to date. At Providence will tell us a lot about the mental strength of our team. Rock bottom can a powerful motivator...or it can just mean an early grave.

[Shooter McGavin]

Good analysis TAMU.

[Galway Eagle]

Is there a W-L record in that 6-3 that'd look better than others? I mean would we rather UConn Creighton and Xavier over Butler? Just curious

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This game reinforced what I have felt about Wojo for a long time. He's good at the initial scout. He's good at the individual chess moves to win specific plays. He's terrible when the opponent does something unexpected. It catches him with his pants down and the recovery almost never comes or is too little too late when it happens.

I meant to add a point to this paragraph. This is why Wojo overperforms against Wisconsin and Nova. Wisconsin doesn't deviate from their system and Wright doesn't really make adjustments, he just installs a set of key concepts that his players follow. Wojo is good at drawing up a game plan to counteract an opponent's strengths. But when the opponent zigs instead of zags, he doesn't know how to adjust on the fly. I think this is also why we often have previously unremarkable players going off against us (Kunkel, Polley, etc.) We can often shut down the best player, but assume that the secondary players will eventually miss the shots we give them.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is there a W-L record in that 6-3 that'd look better than others? I mean would we rather UConn Creighton and Xavier over Butler? Just curious

If you have to lose games, my personal opinion is that it's better to win the big games (Q1) and the bunnies (Q3/Q4) and lose the inbetween games (Q2). For our remaining schedule that would look like:

W at Providence (Q1B)
W vs Butler (Q3)
W vs Creighton (Q1B)
W at Seton Hall (Q1B)
L at Butler (Q2B)
W vs St. John's (Q3)
W at UConn (Q1B)
L at DePaul (Q3, but will likely become Q2B by end of season)
L vs Xavier (Q2A) 40

I have to say that I hope that doesn't happen because it would be real rough to finish 0-2 with a loss to DePaul after going 6-1. Though I think exchanging any of the Q1B wins for a win at DePaul could be fine. But again, that's what I think the ideal 6-3 finish would look like, not even close to the most likely one. Also again, given the totality of what I've seen this season, I don't think 6-3 is likely. I think it ends up 5-4 or 4-5.

[MU82]

I meant to add a point to this paragraph. This is why Wojo overperforms against Wisconsin and Nova. Wisconsin doesn't deviate from their system and Wright doesn't really make adjustments, he just installs a set of key concepts that his players follow. Wojo is good at drawing up a game plan to counteract an opponent's strengths. But when the opponent zigs instead of zags, he doesn't know how to adjust on the fly. I think this is also why we often have previously unremarkable players going off against us (Kunkel, Polley, etc.) We can often shut down the best player, but assume that the secondary players will eventually miss the shots we give them.

In some strange way, doesn't this suggest a flaw in the coaching of Gard and Wright?

If they are superior to Wojo (which certainly Wright is), and if they have scouted (which they have), why wouldn't they also be prepared to throw a wrinkle at a coach who has proven time and again that he is incapable of making the proper adjustments on the fly?

I am in no way claiming Wojo is as good as Wright, and probably not Gard either. And obviously Wright's system works just fine against most everybody. I just thought this was interesting and curious. Maybe it's part of the reason why Gard hasn't won all that big.

[panda]

In some strange way, doesn't this suggest a flaw in the coaching of Gard and Wright?

If they are superior to Wojo (which certainly Wright is), and if they have scouted (which they have), why wouldn't they also be prepared to throw a wrinkle at a coach who has proven time and again that he is incapable of making the proper adjustments on the fly?

I am in no way claiming Wojo is as good as Wright, and probably not Gard either. And obviously Wright's system works just fine against most everybody. I just thought this was interesting and curious. Maybe it's part of the reason why Gard hasn't won all that big.

I think it makes it a little bit harder to win multiple games in the tournament, but the program philosophy sets it self up for repeatable success. Players know what is expected of them on a yearly basis and parts become interchangeable when you’re not augmenting program philosophy every year.

[1SE]

this post has aged well

[Johnny B]

Brutal

[Big Papi]

We are officially one of the bottom feeder programs of the Big East.  Way to go!

[1SE]

We are officially one of the bottom feeder programs of the Big East.  Way to go!

Admin to Wojo:

"It's yeat 7 Steve, we dont want you finishing middle of the pack"

Wojo:

'Roger that "

[mileskishnish72]

this post has aged well

Ha! True. Right up there with the We Have a Good Team and Coach thread.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

this post has aged well

Did you actually read the post or just the title?

[Knights Commission]

Ha! True. Right up there with the We Have a Good Team and Coach thread.

Same with BLM’s constant arguing that we’d make the tourney because “who else is gonna make it?!”

[Silent Verbal]

Same with BLM’s constant arguing that we’d make the tourney because “who else is gonna make it?!”

There's been some slurpery for every taste this season, but the one you just mentioned might have been my favorite.

"You need 68 teams for a 68 team tournament, so who's gonna make it, huh?  I know the Ivy League ain't sending anybody, so that's five bids right there, which leaves you with only 63 out of a possible 68, and you need a full 68 teams if you're gonna have a 68 team tournament.  So what 68 teams are you putting ahead of Marquette?"

[Lennys Tap]

This game reinforced what I have felt about Wojo for a long time. He's good at the initial scout. He's good at the individual chess moves to win specific plays. He's terrible when the opponent does something unexpected. It catches him with his pants down and the recovery almost never comes or is too little too late when it happens.

You can win big (without much adjusting) if your talent is elite (think some of Tarkanian’s or Dean Smith’s teams) or if your execution is flawless (think some of Knight’s or Wright’s teams). Everybody else has to do at least a little seat of the pants coaching. When you can’t, you’re a checkers player going up against guys playing chess. Wojo plays checkers.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Butler does two things well and is elite at one thing. They don't turn the ball over (16.9 TO%, 63rd in the nation) they defend without fouling (27.3 FTR Allowed, 71st in the nation), and they do not give up any offensive boards (21.0% OR% Allowed, 8th in the nation).

That's it. In every other significant statistical category, Butler ranks in the bottom 100 teams of D1. There is no reason why Marquette shouldn't win this one handily, but saying that hasn't meant much lately.

Theo John could have a massive game, Butler has allowed opponents to post a block% of 12.1% against them (329th in D1). Funnel their slashers towards John and he should be able to erase most of their attempts.

Butler's one significant win is a home OT win over Creighton. That was more about Creighton not being able to shoot than Butler winning. Every Blue Jay not named Denzel Mahoney combined for 1-12 3P shooting that night.

Butler really only has two three point shooters, Chuck Harris and Jair Bolden who is the most prolific three point shooter in the conference. Bolden shoots a higher percentage from three (38.1%) than he does from 2 (36.5%) so whoever defends him needs to cheat up on him and if they get beat on the dribble so be it.

[Galway Eagle]

So essentially we'll hold Jair Bolden to a terrible night and some walk-on that shoots 10% will go off for 40pts