Marquette opens +2.5 vs. Villanova

[BM1090]

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/villanova-marquette-odds-december-23-2020-1322133

I think we match up about as well as we can with a top 10 opponent. Need the defense to show up at least a little bit, though.

I'll say the almost the same thing I said before the X game. We win unless Nova shoots above 45% from deep.

[wadesworld]

This is the worst we've matched up with Villanova in a long time.  Nova is fine begging one player on the opponent to beat them himself.  Markus could.  Nobody on this team can.

[BM1090]

This is the worst we've matched up with Villanova in a long time.  Nova is fine begging one player on the opponent to beat them himself.  Markus could.  Nobody on this team can.

Agree we don't match up with them quite as well as in the past, but we finally have bigs who can take advantage of their lack of height/width. They are allowing an eFG% of 52%. If we can limit the turnovers as well as we did on Sunday, I like our chances.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Nothing fancy about what Nova does. On offense they shoot well and don't turn it over. On defense they don't give up offensive boards or fouls.

They're weaknesses are inverse of their strengths. On defense,  they let their opponents shoot really well and don't turn them over. On offense they don't get offensive boards or draw fouls.

Key matchup is how we defend Moore and Daniels. I think Koby is the only one capable of keeping up with either. Both on the floor will cause problems. I think we can matchup with everyone else pretty well.  I wish Dexter's offense wasn't a disaster. I think his defensewould be very valuable in this one

[DoctorV]

Quite a bit more respeck than I expeckted.

Hope those tired MU legs can keep up, and muster up the energy to pull off a third top 10 win this year. Jay Wright is playing a thinner lineup than Wojo (with JRE, Gillespie, and Moore all avg 34mpg!) so maybe we can turn that into an advantage.

I’d love to see yet another amazing BE battle, but for some reason I’m not as confident this time around. That said, it seems as if MU historically plays Villanova strong.

[DoctorV]

Nothing fancy about what Nova does. On offense they shoot well and don't turn it over. On defense they don't give up offensive boards or fouls.

They're weaknesses are inverse of their strengths. On defense,  they let their opponents shoot really well and don't turn them over. On offense they don't get offensive boards or draw fouls.

Key matchup is how we defend Moore and Daniels. I think Koby is the only one capable of keeping up with either. Both on the floor will cause problems. I think we can matchup with everyone else pretty well.  I wish Dexter's offense wasn't a disaster. I think his defensewould be very valuable in this one

DJC has looks pretty solid defensively so far, you don’t think he can match up? They are both 6’4 so he gives up some size, but if he plays as much as MU will need him he might get the assignment if Symir is out there with him. I know it doesn’t happen often but I assume Sy would get Gillespie, otherwise DJC would get him most of the game.

What’s the other option outside of Kobe? Maybe a give Greg Elliott extra minutes type of game? Jamal?

[MU82]

Koby is a good, hard-nosed defender ... but Scruggs did whatever he wanted against him. Hope we don't have a replay of that tomorrow.

2.5 points ... seems a little low to me. I hope the game's that close and we steal it at the end!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

DJC has looks pretty solid defensively so far, you don’t think he can match up? They are both 6’4 so he gives up some size, but if he plays as much as MU will need him he might get the assignment if Symir is out there with him. I know it doesn’t happen often but I assume Sy would get Gillespie, otherwise DJC would get him most of the game.

What’s the other option outside of Kobe? Maybe a give Greg Elliott extra minutes type of game? Jamal?

Carton has been solid defensively and I think he could possibly match up with Daniels or Moore but I had him penciled in to stop Gillespie. The height differential concerns me too. I did wonder if Wojo may try Carton on Daniels and Cain on Gillespie. Gillespie is meh inside the arc and elite outside of it. I could see Cain's length possibly being enough to keep Gillespie's shot in check.

[JakeBarnes]

Carton has been solid defensively and I think he could possibly match up with Daniels or Moore but I had him penciled in to stop Gillespie. The height differential concerns me too. I did wonder if Wojo may try Carton on Daniels and Cain on Gillespie. Gillespie is meh inside the arc and elite outside of it. I could see Cain's length possibly being enough to keep Gillespie's shot in check.

Jamal has had a hard time closing out the line this year. Not likely a good matchup for him.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Carton has been solid defensively and I think he could possibly match up with Daniels or Moore but I had him penciled in to stop Gillespie. The height differential concerns me too. I did wonder if Wojo may try Carton on Daniels and Cain on Gillespie. Gillespie is meh inside the arc and elite outside of it. I could see Cain's length possibly being enough to keep Gillespie's shot in check.

DJ is a -7 in BE play and Cain is a -15. I prefer DJ. Lewis (0) will be getting more of Cain's minutes going forward.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

DJ is a -7 in BE play and Cain is a -15. I prefer DJ. Lewis (0) will be getting more of Cain's minutes going forward.

Has Cain played any minutes at the 4? Unless you are going to play Lewis at the the 3, I don't see him taking any minutes from Cain. I don't see Lewis playing the 3 this season. Can't have our only 3 bigs on the floor at the same time, plus I don't see Lewis being capable of guarding the wing at this point.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Go Marquette Beat Nova. As I screamed in a silent Bradley Center down 8 to Nova in 2017 “Let’s Beat These Guys!” We Are Marquette!

[Johnny B]

easy win

[Dr. Blackheart]

Has Cain played any minutes at the 4? Unless you are going to play Lewis at the the 3, I don't see him taking any minutes from Cain. I don't see Lewis playing the 3 this season. Can't have our only 3 bigs on the floor at the same time, plus I don't see Lewis being capable of guarding the wing at this point.

Last year he played PF (about 36% of the time at the end of the year per Pomeroy when he spelled BB). Dawson to the 3 and go to the zone on defense where the man has been porous as MU is not quick enough on rotations. I was hopeful with the defense to start the year but the BE coaches are tearing it apart.

Put it this way, Jay Wright is mentioning Lewis and Garcia in his pre-game article, and not Cain.

[MU82]

Go Marquette Beat Nova. As I screamed in a silent Bradley Center down 8 to Nova in 2017 “Let’s Beat These Guys!” We Are Marquette!

Well done, Mike. We're all counting on you again tonight. Don't make it so dramatic, though!

[BM1090]

I'm probably crazy but feeling a win tonight.

[rocky_warrior]

I'm probably crazy but feeling a win tonight.

I think that's our undefeated streak against ranked teams talking.  They aren't usually likely, but hey, we know it can happen!

[GooooMarquette]

As long as Nova is a top-10 team, we got this.

[PGsHeroes32]

Last year he played PF (about 36% of the time at the end of the year per Pomeroy when he spelled BB). Dawson to the 3 and go to the zone on defense where the man has been porous as MU is not quick enough on rotations. I was hopeful with the defense to start the year but the BE coaches are tearing it apart.

Put it this way, Jay Wright is mentioning Lewis and Garcia in his pre-game article, and not Cain.

That is completely irrelevant to the convo at hand.

You think Cain is going to randomly start losing minutes to a guy(who doesnt play his position) because Jay Wright is assumed to be mentioning the other guy more often in pre game articles??

As TAMU said, we are not playing our 3 bigs at the same time. We ran into foul trouble badly against UCLA without doing that. Playing them together could be a nightmare.

Factor in the fact that Cain is definitely more adequate to guard a 3 and spaces the floor better. Its a no brainer.

Is. Not. Happening.

[BM1090]

MU up to +5.5 which I think is good value. 2.5 didn't seem to provide much.

[CountryRoads]

Last year he played PF (about 36% of the time at the end of the year per Pomeroy when he spelled BB). Dawson to the 3 and go to the zone on defense where the man has been porous as MU is not quick enough on rotations. I was hopeful with the defense to start the year but the BE coaches are tearing it apart.

Put it this way, Jay Wright is mentioning Lewis and Garcia in his pre-game article, and not Cain.

Wright had said in past interviews that their gameplan was to focus on Hauser(s) when playing us. He felt that Markus couldn't beat them by himself and if they contained the other guys, their chances were good to win regardless of what Howard did. I think we will see a similar strategy tonight and they will in fact zero in on Lewis and Garcia. I think their plan will be to get Koby and Cain chucking a bunch of shots (like the Ok St game). I'm feeling positive about it so I will say both Koby and Jamal have big games particularly from the 3 point line.

[PGsHeroes32]

Wright had said in past interviews that their gameplan was to focus on Hauser(s) when playing us. He felt that Markus couldn't beat them by himself and if they contained the other guys, their chances were good to win regardless of what Howard did. I think we will see a similar strategy tonight and they will in fact zero in on Lewis and Garcia. I think their plan will be to get Koby and Cain chucking a bunch of shots (like the Ok St game). I'm feeling positive about it so I will say both Koby and Jamal have big games particularly from the 3 point line.

Not sure there will ever be a game where Cain is truly "chucking" shots.

I do think they will probably try and dare us to shoot it though from outside

[DoctorV]

Hopefully MU does the opposite and tries to feed the inside early and often, followed up by cuts to the basket or plenty of drives to the hoop.

Villanova is very good but pretty “thin,” would be nice to get some early home cooking foul trouble

[brewcity77]

Hopefully MU does the opposite and tries to feed the inside early and often, followed up by cuts to the basket or plenty of drives to the hoop.

Villanova is very good but pretty “thin,” would be nice to get some early home cooking foul trouble

Ken Pomeroy did an early season analysis and it looks like home court in conference games isn't worth as much as it usually is, at least so far. Home foul advantage has dropped over 63%, from an average of 2.12 fouls per game normally to 0.78 this season. Home team winning percentage is also down from 60.1% to 56.3%, which would be by far the lowest he has measured (previous low was 59.0% in 2016-17).

It's still early, but I expect we'll have to win more on merit than home cooking this season.

[PointWarrior]

Should have bet the house on nova