[Cracked Sidewalks] Defenseless, Again

[brewcity77]

After OSU, it looked like Marquette had finally figured out the defensive end of the floor. Pundits were talking them up and the narrative seemed set that Wojo's team was buying in on the defensive end. Since then, Marquette's defense has taken a turn not just for the worse, but maybe the worst. Cracked Sidewalks looks at a Marquette program that is Defenseless, Again:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/12/defenseless-again.html?m=1

[Dr. Blackheart]

Just a ding, MU has the 17th ranked offense now.

[Warrior84]

Just some observations since the season started re defense:

1) once again, no use of full court or 3/4 court pressure;
2) lack of closing out on the perimeter;
3) no switching of defenses;
4) failure to keep arms up/out;
5) no effort to get into passing lanes;
6) not making opponent pay for giving up dribble.

I just think of how some coaches capitalize on strong defensive pressure, such as Pitino, Huggins, and Anderson.  Why can't Wojo ever try to create pressure...even if only 10 possessions per half?

[brewcity77]

Just a ding, MU has the 17th ranked offense now.

I assume you meant 71st ranked defense? I was jumping between kenpom and T-Rank; kenpom has our defense at #71, T-Rank at #76. But I took your advice (assuming I interpreted correctly) for consistency's sake. Thanks!

[Dr. Blackheart]

I assume you meant 71st ranked defense? I was jumping between kenpom and T-Rank; kenpom has our defense at #71, T-Rank at #76. But I took your advice (assuming I interpreted correctly) for consistency's sake. Thanks!

No I was referencing this quote:

The question is, if this team isn't as offensively gifted as the teams we've had in recent years...

It looks like we have the same DNA as other Wojo teams. Great O, No D. 17th best offense after today per KPom.

[brewcity77]

Just some observations since the season started re defense:

1) once again, no use of full court or 3/4 court pressure;
2) lack of closing out on the perimeter;
3) no switching of defenses;
4) failure to keep arms up/out;
5) no effort to get into passing lanes;
6) not making opponent pay for giving up dribble.

I just think of how some coaches capitalize on strong defensive pressure, such as Pitino, Huggins, and Anderson.  Why can't Wojo ever try to create pressure...even if only 10 possessions per half?

Agree with all of this. Paint Touches pointed out that we are often a half-second slow on closeouts at the arc. That, along with not having a hand up or having it half-heartedly up, has led to teams shooting well against us from three. While it's easy to say Green Bay was hitting crazy shots, Creighton was hitting crazy shots, Seton Hall was hitting crazy shots...at some point, giving up those shots is just who you are. Xavier did it again today. I'd almost be more surprised if Villanova didn't do it on Wednesday, though with how we perform against top-10 teams, they could go 16/27 from three and we might still find a way to win.

[franklinjerry]

Really can't can't play pressure defense with a 7 man rotation. (OK 7.50 with Sy)

[brewcity77]

It looks like we have the same DNA as other Wojo teams. Great O, No D. 17th best offense after today per KPom.

Oh, gotcha. The offense has run hot and cold, but when it's on, it has shown the ability to carry us (Creighton the most notable part). The quote was largely a reference to the Brian Hamilton article I linked at the start which indicated the staff and players expected defense to be more of a calling card than offense.

[The Sultan]

I agree that this team does a lot of things wrong on the defense end.

But I think running any sort of pressure with this crew would be disasterous.

[Warrior84]

I agree that this team does a lot of things wrong on the defense end.

But I think running any sort of pressure with this crew would be disasterous.

Not suggesting Marquette incorporates a "40 minutes of Hell" defense used by Nolan Anderson or a Shaka Smart VCU-type of constant pressure, but how about an occasional full court or at least a 3/4 court trap defense.  This is a "faster" Wojo team than others.  Catch your opponent by surprise.  Mix things up.  Otherwise, "predictability" is the easiest defense to prepare for by our opponents. 

[The Sultan]

Not suggesting Marquette incorporates a "40 minutes of Hell" defense used by Nolan Anderson or a Shaka Smart VCU-type of constant pressure, but how about an occasional full court or at least a 3/4 court trap defense.  This is a "faster" Wojo team than others.  Catch your opponent by surprise.  Mix things up.  Otherwise, "predictability" is the easiest defense to prepare for by our opponents. 

Because that type of defense requires more discipline and basic defensive knowledge than Wojo teams seem to possess.

[Lennys Tap]

Because that type of defense requires more discipline and basic defensive knowledge than Wojo teams seem to possess.

If he's really a B+/C+ coach (your ranking) that means he has near elite (B+) players and he's above average (C+) at coaching them up. Shouldn't an above average coach be able to impart discipline and basic defensive knowledge to near elite players?

[brewcity77]

Having a discussion online and Rob from Cracked Sidewalks pointed out how Wojo's anathema to force turnovers coupled with Marquette's own propensity to turn the ball over on offense exacerbates our problems. Turnovers are the most likely way to create fast break opportunities. Those are possessions with a very high likelihood of scoring. So by not creating easy offense of your own through forced turnovers while simultaneously giving your opponents extra possessions and easy offense with the turnovers you give away, we are allowing our offense to make our defense worse and our defense to make our offense worse. It's a vicious circle of compounded flawed strategies.

[Warrior-Eagle]

Just some observations since the season started re defense:

1) once again, no use of full court or 3/4 court pressure;
2) lack of closing out on the perimeter;
3) no switching of defenses;
4) failure to keep arms up/out;
5) no effort to get into passing lanes;
6) not making opponent pay for giving up dribble.

I just think of how some coaches capitalize on strong defensive pressure, such as Pitino, Huggins, and Anderson.  Why can't Wojo ever try to create pressure...even if only 10 possessions per half?

Outstanding post. A handful of corrections especially 2, 4, 5, 6 which are in our control. I could not make Rowsey and Markus taller in prior years or increase foot speed which was not in our control. BTW... Kunkel was NOT a big part of game prep is my guess. He had moments that SY, Koby and especially Greg were not at their best on defense. I look forward to Brew's summary of the 14 point loss by MSU at Northwestern today with NW shooting 53% from the from the floor and 48% from three. Answer...Winning on the road is tough.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My reaction:



In the date range you are looking at, I see one good defensive performance (against the #61 KP offense), 4 average defensive performances (1 against a bad offense, 2 against top 11 KP offenses, 1 against the #31 KP offense), and 2 bad defensive performances (against two top 15 KP offenses).

You have to include the context of who they are playing when judging a team's defense (or offense for that matter). Just like people were jumping to conclusions when MU's D locked down APB and EIU, don't make the mistake of jumping to a conclusion when MU's D gets torched by two of the best offenses in the country.

You say we can't just say "Creighton was hitting crazy shots" and "Xavier was hitting crazy shots". Guess what? That's what Creighton and Xavier's offenses do. They hit crazy shots, even against good defenses. Seton Hall was another matter. Statistically this a crazy statement, but I think the defense against Creighton and Xavier was actually better than the defense against Seton Hall. Seton Hall's offense is just a lot worse than the Jays or X-men.

Our next game is against another top 5 offense in Villanova. Wouldn't be surprised if our defense looks a little porous against them too. Our first four conference games will be against the top 4 offenses in the Big East per KenPom. I think those early tests will be great learning experiences for our defense when  12/16 of the remaining games are against teams currently outside of the top 40 on offense.

[Silent Verbal]

My reaction:



In the date range you are looking at, I see one good defensive performance (against the #61 KP offense), 4 average defensive performances (1 against a bad offense, 2 against top 11 KP offenses, 1 against the #31 KP offense), and 2 bad defensive performances (against two top 15 KP offenses).

You have to include the context of who they are playing when judging a team's defense (or offense for that matter). Just like people were jumping to conclusions when MU's D locked down APB and EIU, don't make the mistake of jumping to a conclusion when MU's D gets torched by two of the best offenses in the country.

You say we can't just say "Creighton was hitting crazy shots" and "Xavier was hitting crazy shots". Guess what? That's what Creighton and Xavier's offenses do. They hit crazy shots, even against good defenses. Seton Hall was another matter. Statistically this a crazy statement, but I think the defense against Creighton and Xavier was actually better than the defense against Seton Hall. Seton Hall's offense is just a lot worse than the Jays or X-men.

Our next game is against another top 5 offense in Villanova. Wouldn't be surprised if our defense looks a little porous against them too. Our first four conference games will be against the top 4 offenses in the Big East per KenPom. I think those early tests will be great learning experiences for our defense when  12/16 of the remaining games are against teams currently outside of the top 40 on offense.

So basically we're a good defensive team except when we play good offensive teams.  Looks we're poised to make a deep run in the tourney this year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So basically we're a good defensive team except when we play good offensive teams.  Looks we're poised to make a deep run in the tourney this year.

I think our defense did a great job against Madison's top 10 offense and UCLA's #11 offense. Did a much better job than most teams who play them will do this season (just ask Louisville). I'd say our defense is 2-2 against top 15 offenses.

[brewcity77]

Good offenses, good teams, that's who we play. In my opinion, Wojo hasn't had a "good" defense in his coaching career. His best defense was ranked #45. If we're talking about a team that can make a deep run on the strength of its defense, we need to be talking top-20 or top-30 at worst. That #45 ranking is the 7th highest Marquette defensive rank in the past 15 years. Wojo's other 6 defenses occupy spots 10-15, which includes this year's defense.

My standards don't consider a top-50 (if that's what this proves to be) defense to be something to hang your hat on. That's adequate with a top-10 offense, but if we're talking "good" defense, our expectations should be much higher.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Good offenses, good teams, that's who we play.

Well to use your definition of "Top 50 isn't good" later in your post, we actually don't play a lot of good offenses this season. 16/26 scheduled games this season are against offenses currently ranked 41 or lower on KenPom. After the Nova game on Wednesday, we will have played 6/10 of the games against opponents in the top 40 but only 4/16 of the games against opponents outside the top 40. As I've been saying since the BEast schedule came out, our schedule is very frontloaded.

In my opinion, Wojo hasn't had a "good" defense in his coaching career. His best defense was ranked #45. If we're talking about a team that can make a deep run on the strength of its defense, we need to be talking top-20 or top-30 at worst. That #45 ranking is the 7th highest Marquette defensive rank in the past 15 years. Wojo's other 6 defenses occupy spots 10-15, which includes this year's defense.

My comments are only about this season. Nobody's winning an argument saying that Wojo has been a good defensive coach to this point.

My standards don't consider a top-50 (if that's what this proves to be) defense to be something to hang your hat on. That's adequate with a top-10 offense, but if we're talking "good" defense, our expectations should be much higher.

If top-50 isn't "good" in your book than I guess I don't think we have a "good" defense this season either. I think it ends up somewhere in the 30-50 range. I think the difference is, I don't and have never expected this to be a season where we make a deep tourney run or earn a high seed. I expect this team to be better than the last down year team Wojo coached (year 4).

I love stats, I use them for everything. But take em out of context and you can make them say whatever you want. We are playing a very frontloaded schedule and the stats support that. My eye test tells me that the defense is better than past Wojo years (and the offense is worse than the good years despite the current ranking) but they have had to face a battery of really good offenses to start the season. Maybe my eye test needs glasses and I will end being embarrassingly wrong. My point still stands that there are two things that go into stats like PPP allowed and eFG% allowed, how good your defense was, and how good your opponent's offense was. You have to consider both to get an accurate answer.

[Silent Verbal]

Well to use your definition of "Top 50 isn't good" later in your post, we actually don't play a lot of good offenses this season. 16/26 scheduled games this season are against offenses currently ranked 41 or lower on KenPom. After the Nova game on Wednesday, we will have played 6/10 of the games against opponents in the top 40 but only 4/16 of the games against opponents outside the top 40. As I've been saying since the BEast schedule came out, our schedule is very frontloaded.

My comments are only about this season. Nobody's winning an argument saying that Wojo has been a good defensive coach to this point.

If top-50 isn't "good" in your book than I guess I don't think we have a "good" defense this season either. I think it ends up somewhere in the 30-50 range. I think the difference is, I don't and have never expected this to be a season where we make a deep tourney run or earn a high seed. I expect this team to be better than the last down year team Wojo coached (year 4).

I love stats, I use them for everything. But take em out of context and you can make them say whatever you want. We are playing a very frontloaded schedule and the stats support that. My eye test tells me that the defense is better than past Wojo years (and the offense is worse than the good years despite the current ranking) but they have had to face a battery of really good offenses to start the season. Maybe my eye test needs glasses and I will end being embarrassingly wrong. My point still stands that there are two things that go into stats like PPP allowed and eFG% allowed, how good your defense was, and how good your opponent's offense was. You have to consider both to get an accurate answer.

Every coach should be afforded the luxury of a "down" year, provided that "up" years are the norm.  Crean had two "down" years after the Final Four, and then made the tournament every other year he was at Marquette.  His best team next to 2003 would've been 08-09, the year he bolted for Indiana.  He didn't win enough in the postseason after Wade, but the FF bought him a lot of goodwill.  Buzz made three straight Sweet 16s, so his mulligan in 13-14 was understandable.  Wojo's two best seasons at MU were two first round exits in the Tourney.  A first round exit in the Tournament is an average season at a program like Marquette.

Why was year four expected to be a "down year" team?  We started Rowsey, Howard, and Sam Hauser, three of the best three point shooters to ever play for MU.  It was a "down year" team in *your* opinion.  But with those three players alone, that team should've at least made the freaking tournament, no matter how bad the defense was.

And why is this year expected to be a "down year" team?  Yeah, we lost Howard, Anim, and Bailey, but forget Anim and Bailey.  Guys like that are a dime a dozen.  So we lost Markus.  But our starting lineup is:  DJ--a terrific point guard who was a highly rated recruit and played last year at Ohio State, Koby--a fifth year senior, Jamal--fourth year senior, Dawson--a highly skilled McD's AA big man, and Theo--a fourth year senior.  Off the bench, we have a great freshman in Justin Lewis, a fourth year junior who can hit the open three in Greg Elliott, and a top 100 recruit in Symir who can spell DJ for a few minutes each half.  If that's a "down year" roster, I'll take two.

This is a "down year" team in *your* opinion.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Because down years aren't a random occurrence that just happen, they happen for a reason. If you're paying attention, you can accurately predict which teams are going to be down in a given year.

In college basketball, most programs have recruiting cycles of 3 years. A down year followed by 2 (sometimes 3) years of growth. This happens because most coaches struggle to string elite recruiting classes together because of perceived or actual playing time barriers. Coaches tend to sign their most talented classes  when the core of their team is upperclassmen because recruits see a clear path to playing time their freshmen or sophomore years. This typically leads to a down year as the core of the team graduates or goes pro and a talented but younger core takes over. If the program is healthy, the younger core gets better as time goes on leading to multiple up years before they graduate/go pro and a new core needs to take over. There are of course exceptions to the rule and various factors can disrupt this pattern (mainly key transfers), but in general its the pattern most programs follow.

Keep in mind that down years are relative to the program. A down year for us is making the NIT/barely making the NCAAs. A down year for Michigan State could be a 6 seed.

Wojo took over in a down year. The core of his predecessor's last team all graduated (and 1 removed himself), and he inherited a talented but young core (that was not talented enough as freshmen to earn more minutes than the upperclassmen who led them to missing the NIT). After the initial down year, he had two years of growth before his first core graduated.

Year four was his second down year. He had lost the core he inherited from Buzz but had a young core in Howard, Hauser, and Anim that was better than the one he got from Buzz. The second down year was much better than the first one and the next up year was so much better than year 2. Howard, Hauser, and Anim's senior year was set to be one for the record books until Hausergate (remember key transfers being something that disrupts the pattern?). Wojo bears responsibility for that mess so the likely 9ish seed we ended up with was the first bad season for Wojo.

This year is the third down year because his second core (first one he didn't inherit from Buzz) was set to graduate last season. Again, we lost most of our talent from last season but have a young and talented core in Carton, Garcia, and Lewis taking up the mantle. I think they end up leading us to the tournament (though just barely), starting this recruiting cycle off on a stronger note than the last one.

You can poo poo it if you want but that's how I evaluate coaches. Is the program improving from one recruiting cycle to the next? This year, I'm comparing the team to year 4. Assuming Wojo is here, I'll be comparing the next two years to years 5 and 6.

[willie warrior]

Same old, same old from Coach Mediocrity  and same old same old from the silver linings crowd.

[jesmu84]

Every coach should be afforded the luxury of a "down" year, provided that "up" years are the norm.  Crean had two "down" years after the Final Four, and then made the tournament every other year he was at Marquette.  His best team next to 2003 would've been 08-09, the year he bolted for Indiana.  He didn't win enough in the postseason after Wade, but the FF bought him a lot of goodwill.  Buzz made three straight Sweet 16s, so his mulligan in 13-14 was understandable.  Wojo's two best seasons at MU were two first round exits in the Tourney. A first round exit in the Tournament is an average season at a program like Marquette.

Why was year four expected to be a "down year" team?  We started Rowsey, Howard, and Sam Hauser, three of the best three point shooters to ever play for MU.  It was a "down year" team in *your* opinion.  But with those three players alone, that team should've at least made the freaking tournament, no matter how bad the defense was.

And why is this year expected to be a "down year" team?  Yeah, we lost Howard, Anim, and Bailey, but forget Anim and Bailey.  Guys like that are a dime a dozen.  So we lost Markus.  But our starting lineup is:  DJ--a terrific point guard who was a highly rated recruit and played last year at Ohio State, Koby--a fifth year senior, Jamal--fourth year senior, Dawson--a highly skilled McD's AA big man, and Theo--a fourth year senior.  Off the bench, we have a great freshman in Justin Lewis, a fourth year junior who can hit the open three in Greg Elliott, and a top 100 recruit in Symir who can spell DJ for a few minutes each half.  If that's a "down year" roster, I'll take two.

This is a "down year" team in *your* opinion.

So, if Marquette won the big east regular season then won the BET but got bounced in a first round upset in the NCAAs, that would be an average year?

All I'm trying to point out is context for season success and that the NCAA tourney results shouldn't be everything.

Also, to TAMUs credit, the timelines you describe with Crean are the exact up/down cycles he is talking about.

[Shooter McGavin]

TAMU,

Good perspective.  I think/hope you will be right in the end.   

I think this down year cycle should be better than the last two and needs to be better than the last two.  Anything less than a tournament birth would be another indictment on his coaching. 

It is obvious that Wojo has a ton of talent to work with this year and that talent should be able to overcome a lack of experience with good coaching.

I think he gets it done. Crossing my fingers.

[brewcity77]

I think our defense did a great job against Madison's top 10 offense and UCLA's #11 offense. Did a much better job than most teams who play them will do this season (just ask Louisville). I'd say our defense is 2-2 against top 15 offenses.

I think it's also worth looking at why those offenses are ranked there. Part of it is because they played against our defense. Xavier came in to the season with an expected adjusted ORtg of 105.2 which improved to 109.8 (20th) after 7 games. Well yesterday, it jumped up to 111.9 (13th). So 31.3% of their expected offensive improvement is based on skewering our defense.

Green Bay only had one better offensive performance than the one against us, and that was against EIU. Same for Creighton, whose only better offensive performance was against Kennesaw State.

Maybe it's the elite offenses, but maybe we should also acknowledge that those elite offenses are propped up partially by what they did against our defense.