[Cracked Sidewalks] Let's Save the Season

[brewcity77]

Can the 2020-21 NCAA basketball season be salvaged? I've been pessimistic, but after looking at how TBT managed their event along with the upcoming NCAA calendar, I think it's possible, and here's how:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/07/lets-save-season.html

[Jockey]

Can the 2020-21 NCAA basketball season be salvaged? I've been pessimistic, but after looking at how TBT managed their event along with the upcoming NCAA calendar, I think it's possible, and here's how:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/07/lets-save-season.html

As far as the season goes, I think this is as good as any plan that I have seen.

But you didn't say much about players. We can't put them in a bubble and kids will be kids. They may go in with good intentions about being careful, but in reality it is quite hard to do.

What do you think we need to do at that end of things? How do we keep them protected? Is daily or even every other day testing feasible for all of college basketball?

Looking forward to your opinion.

[brewcity77]

I think that's the hardest part. Can you keep the student athletes in a bubble? Effectively, the current MTEs are similar to bubbles in that teams are sequestered to a location, but obviously there's the tourist type events that happen. I don't know what the financials are, but I believe that for the non-con MTEs, they would be able to perform regular testing (maybe not daily, but at least upon entry to the bubble, a couple times leading up to games, and before every game).

As far as conference play, each league would be able to do whatever testing they can afford. While that will mean not everyone is on level footing, everyone in that league and that bubble will be on level footing. So wealthier leagues like the ACC, Big 10, and Big East could probably do daily or every other day testing, smaller leagues might do weekly, but if everyone in that league agrees, so be it.

When it comes to tournament time, it would be on the NCAA.

As far as keeping kids in the bubble, it would absolutely have to be voluntary. If student-athletes opt out, there's really nothing programs can do because they aren't employees and aren't under contract. TBT worked because the players had a tangible reward and buy-in. College would have to create that buy-in without the fiscal benefit. That would be on the programs and conferences. Some programs would probably have to duck out, it's possible some leagues would bail out entirely. If that's the case, then that's their decision. It would just create more at-large opportunities at the end of the year for programs that do participate.

[brewcity77]

One other thought, the quarantine periods could be used for accelerated distance learning. Use those 10 day periods to get students ahead on their spring semester classes. This could serve two purposes, to keep them busy with coursework (and hopefully out of trouble) and making it more realistic to meet the academic requirements.

[GooooMarquette]

I appreciate the thought Brew, and agree that this is probably the only way we might have a season. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

For one thing, as Jockey pointed out, it's asking an awful lot of the kids.

The other thing to me is the likelihood that the vastly increased scale scale and timeframes will dramatically increase the odds that some of the bubbles fail. The TBT was one small experiment involving 24 teams and lasting a few days. They made it through...but for all we know, there could have been 20 TBTs and maybe only 3 would have made it to the end...or maybe 5 or maybe 16. Probably not all 20. We don't know if it's the most likely outcome, or if we just got damn lucky.

So now we would be going from one 'experiment'/24 teams/a few days to your proposal. Dozens of 'experiments' involving hundreds of teams and each lasting a few weeks...and then they'd do it again for the conference seasons...and then again for the NCAAs. It just seems inevitable that some of the MTE bubbles would fail, meaning that dozens of teams wouldn't get to complete a non conference season. And then likewise, some of the conference bubbles would likely fail, meaning that a few entire conferences don't complete a conference season. And then you'd need to sort out this morass of teams (some of which might have played an entire noncon and conference season; some of which played one or the other; some of which didn't complete either), and figure out who makes it into the dance...which itself could also fail?

I love your spirit, but it seems hard to justify.

[brewcity77]

I expect some would fail. The hope would be that they would be able to at least get some games before they did, or that teams would be weeded out before they competed and infected the rest of the teams in the bubble.

One of the comments I saw recently from Dan Gavitt indicated that NCAA Selection, at least as we know it, is impossible without non-con play. A metric like the NET cannot function without cross-conference data. You can't compare the 5th placed team in the Big East with the 6th placed team in the Big 12 with the 8th placed team in the Big 10 with the 4th placed team in the Pac-12 if you don't have some games played between leagues to provide a baseline for what those rankings actually mean.

I also think having the initial bubbles in December and January, when it's typically cold and there's less to do, will at least to an extent keep the players on the inside. You have to allow them all to opt out, but for the ones that do commit to playing, I would hope there would be some motivation to see it through. It's entirely possible that this is all too much to achieve, that the testing is too expensive for the smaller leagues to keep up, and that the season is already doomed, but if that is the case, this winter will be longer than this summer has been, and I'm pretty sure the Big East Tournament got shut down about 17 years ago in mental health time.

[MU82]

I think for the first time since we all started talking about this, brewski, I'm less optimistic than you are about there being a season.

[brewcity77]

I think for the first time since we all started talking about this, brewski, I'm less optimistic than you are about there being a season.

Not optimistic yet, but I'm trying. This'll be the worst winter ever without a season.

[GooooMarquette]

Not optimistic yet, but I'm trying. This'll be the worst winter ever without a season.

Dunno. The Dukiet era had some pretty bleak winters.

[Goatherder]

Can the 2020-21 NCAA basketball season be salvaged? I've been pessimistic, but after looking at how TBT managed their event along with the upcoming NCAA calendar, I think it's possible, and here's how:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/07/lets-save-season.html

Clever and creative thinking.  I do not see it happening.  I liked the non-conference MTE idea, but I do not think smaller schools could afford the ten day or two week road trip.  It might be possible to have a conference season a few different ways, like split it into two halves or something, but it would be hard to get teams to cram a bunch of games in a short period.  These kids are not pros.  They are not up for playing an NBA schedule.  The only way I can see the NCAA tournament work is to cut it back to conference champions and just play it out.  But that would be hard as well. 

TBT had a total of 28 teams involved with very strict rules.  They had four reserve teams.  All of them got used, but one did not get to play.  They got replaced by the next team on the list. And one team got removed after the tournament started. Those teams were pros for the most part who could commit to being locked up and severely restricted for two weeks. They presumably did not have any other obligations like going to class, and they went home as soon as they lost, so for some teams it was less than a week.  I think TBT would have worked even if they lost more teams.  It survived one forfeit game with no problem.  I think it would have been unlikely that they would have lost half the teams or so. 

But I do not see college teams being able to do it.  You would be asking them at a minimum to do the same thing three or four times during a season.  There are just too many people the players, coaches, and others in the program come in contact with. 

Things might change between now and November or January, but as it stands now, I do not see it. 

[muwarrior69]

How would they play a national tournament at seasons end? How would the at large teams  qualify if only intra-conference games are played? A lot of high major and mid major teams would cry foul if they were not picked. What is the point if no national champ is crowned.

[brewcity77]

How would they play a national tournament at seasons end? How would the at large teams  qualify if only intra-conference games are played? A lot of high major and mid major teams would cry foul if they were not picked. What is the point if no national champ is crowned.

Did you read the article? Every one of those questions is addressed.

[#UnleashSean]

This is a good plan. The only thing I would add is that as covid has gone on we've learned that 14 day quarantines and then 10 day quarantines were not necessary.

Ie in our group homes when someone was taken out of the group home, or ventured out in their own we used to do 14 day quarantines. We then dropped it to 10, then 7, and now it's at 3.

[bilsu]

The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.

[WarriorFan]

I think the TBT was great and fortunately their bubble worked, but also remember that 3 teams had to leave due to positive tests.  The main thing that made it work was highly motivated PROFESSIONALS who wanted it to work and worked hard to make it work.  Those guys have lived overseas, stayed in crappy hotels, endured a different form of isolation and generally had it tougher than they had it at the Hyatt Regency Columbus Ohio. 

While I think the "multiple bubble" idea is a great thing to try, I really question whether the NCAA has the professionalism to pull it off from a management and planning perspective.  Also, with the amount of "stuff" that certain schools already hide in terms of recruiting violations and player payments and gifts it would be a simple extrapolation to assume that several schools would develop a strategy to cheat on the COVID tests if there was any way to do so.  (especially any tests prior to entering the bubble, to avoid exclusion).

In my view this can work only if all the controls are outsourced to professional management but I doubt the NCAA is self-aware enough to realize they are not competent to do this. 

[Herman Cain]

The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.

I agree with this analysis.

[MarquetteDano]

The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.

Agree but I think it is more than that.  I think the 'powers" could accept 10 players getting Covid.

If 100 get it,  and let's say one dies.  Oh boy.

[MU82]

Agree but I think it is more than that.  I think the 'powers" could accept 10 players getting Covid.

If 100 get it,  and let's say one dies.  Oh boy.

Don't worry ... Senate is working on legislation that would prevent victims from suing. So if the hired help die, no big deal.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.

Right.  But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.

Honestly we don't deserve sports.  We didn't do what we needed to do.

[Newsdreams]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/marlins-orioles-game-postponed-due-to-covid-19-outbreak-reportedly-resulting-in-at-least-14-cases/

[GooooMarquette]

Right.  But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.

Honestly we don't deserve sports.  We didn't do what we needed to do.

Agreed. Sports is a luxury, and we as a society failed to do what we needed to do to deserve it. I’m not going to point fingers in this thread, and just leave it at that.

Our focus right now should be on minimizing the spread as much as reasonably possible, keeping the truly essential businesses open, and figuring out how to get past this damn thing.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Hopefully the BE is trying to figure out what to do right now with basketball.  Just waiting isn't going to work.  The NCAA isn't exercising any leadership. 

[willie warrior]

Right.  But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.

Honestly we don't deserve sports.  We didn't do what we needed to do.

Yeah, we didnt do what was needed back about 10 years ago with H1N1 virus when 60 million cases were detected, and there was no lockdown. In fact, they quit testing for it.

[Uncle Rico]

Yeah, we didnt do what was needed back about 10 years ago with H1N1 virus when 60 million cases were detected, and there was no lockdown. In fact, they quit testing for it.

What does that have to do with Covid-19?

[WhiteTrash]

Right.  But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.

Honestly we don't deserve sports.  We didn't do what we needed to do.

One person's opinion.  A valid one. Doesn't agree with some doctors I know. I'm not in that field so I am not in the know.