MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: brewcity77 on July 23, 2020, 04:20:57 PM
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Can the 2020-21 NCAA basketball season be salvaged? I've been pessimistic, but after looking at how TBT managed their event along with the upcoming NCAA calendar, I think it's possible, and here's how:
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/07/lets-save-season.html
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Can the 2020-21 NCAA basketball season be salvaged? I've been pessimistic, but after looking at how TBT managed their event along with the upcoming NCAA calendar, I think it's possible, and here's how:
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/07/lets-save-season.html
As far as the season goes, I think this is as good as any plan that I have seen.
But you didn't say much about players. We can't put them in a bubble and kids will be kids. They may go in with good intentions about being careful, but in reality it is quite hard to do.
What do you think we need to do at that end of things? How do we keep them protected? Is daily or even every other day testing feasible for all of college basketball?
Looking forward to your opinion.
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I think that's the hardest part. Can you keep the student athletes in a bubble? Effectively, the current MTEs are similar to bubbles in that teams are sequestered to a location, but obviously there's the tourist type events that happen. I don't know what the financials are, but I believe that for the non-con MTEs, they would be able to perform regular testing (maybe not daily, but at least upon entry to the bubble, a couple times leading up to games, and before every game).
As far as conference play, each league would be able to do whatever testing they can afford. While that will mean not everyone is on level footing, everyone in that league and that bubble will be on level footing. So wealthier leagues like the ACC, Big 10, and Big East could probably do daily or every other day testing, smaller leagues might do weekly, but if everyone in that league agrees, so be it.
When it comes to tournament time, it would be on the NCAA.
As far as keeping kids in the bubble, it would absolutely have to be voluntary. If student-athletes opt out, there's really nothing programs can do because they aren't employees and aren't under contract. TBT worked because the players had a tangible reward and buy-in. College would have to create that buy-in without the fiscal benefit. That would be on the programs and conferences. Some programs would probably have to duck out, it's possible some leagues would bail out entirely. If that's the case, then that's their decision. It would just create more at-large opportunities at the end of the year for programs that do participate.
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One other thought, the quarantine periods could be used for accelerated distance learning. Use those 10 day periods to get students ahead on their spring semester classes. This could serve two purposes, to keep them busy with coursework (and hopefully out of trouble) and making it more realistic to meet the academic requirements.
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I appreciate the thought Brew, and agree that this is probably the only way we might have a season. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.
For one thing, as Jockey pointed out, it's asking an awful lot of the kids.
The other thing to me is the likelihood that the vastly increased scale scale and timeframes will dramatically increase the odds that some of the bubbles fail. The TBT was one small experiment involving 24 teams and lasting a few days. They made it through...but for all we know, there could have been 20 TBTs and maybe only 3 would have made it to the end...or maybe 5 or maybe 16. Probably not all 20. We don't know if it's the most likely outcome, or if we just got damn lucky.
So now we would be going from one 'experiment'/24 teams/a few days to your proposal. Dozens of 'experiments' involving hundreds of teams and each lasting a few weeks...and then they'd do it again for the conference seasons...and then again for the NCAAs. It just seems inevitable that some of the MTE bubbles would fail, meaning that dozens of teams wouldn't get to complete a non conference season. And then likewise, some of the conference bubbles would likely fail, meaning that a few entire conferences don't complete a conference season. And then you'd need to sort out this morass of teams (some of which might have played an entire noncon and conference season; some of which played one or the other; some of which didn't complete either), and figure out who makes it into the dance...which itself could also fail?
I love your spirit, but it seems hard to justify.
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I expect some would fail. The hope would be that they would be able to at least get some games before they did, or that teams would be weeded out before they competed and infected the rest of the teams in the bubble.
One of the comments I saw recently from Dan Gavitt indicated that NCAA Selection, at least as we know it, is impossible without non-con play. A metric like the NET cannot function without cross-conference data. You can't compare the 5th placed team in the Big East with the 6th placed team in the Big 12 with the 8th placed team in the Big 10 with the 4th placed team in the Pac-12 if you don't have some games played between leagues to provide a baseline for what those rankings actually mean.
I also think having the initial bubbles in December and January, when it's typically cold and there's less to do, will at least to an extent keep the players on the inside. You have to allow them all to opt out, but for the ones that do commit to playing, I would hope there would be some motivation to see it through. It's entirely possible that this is all too much to achieve, that the testing is too expensive for the smaller leagues to keep up, and that the season is already doomed, but if that is the case, this winter will be longer than this summer has been, and I'm pretty sure the Big East Tournament got shut down about 17 years ago in mental health time.
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I think for the first time since we all started talking about this, brewski, I'm less optimistic than you are about there being a season.
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I think for the first time since we all started talking about this, brewski, I'm less optimistic than you are about there being a season.
Not optimistic yet, but I'm trying. This'll be the worst winter ever without a season.
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Not optimistic yet, but I'm trying. This'll be the worst winter ever without a season.
Dunno. The Dukiet era had some pretty bleak winters.
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Can the 2020-21 NCAA basketball season be salvaged? I've been pessimistic, but after looking at how TBT managed their event along with the upcoming NCAA calendar, I think it's possible, and here's how:
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/07/lets-save-season.html
Clever and creative thinking. I do not see it happening. I liked the non-conference MTE idea, but I do not think smaller schools could afford the ten day or two week road trip. It might be possible to have a conference season a few different ways, like split it into two halves or something, but it would be hard to get teams to cram a bunch of games in a short period. These kids are not pros. They are not up for playing an NBA schedule. The only way I can see the NCAA tournament work is to cut it back to conference champions and just play it out. But that would be hard as well.
TBT had a total of 28 teams involved with very strict rules. They had four reserve teams. All of them got used, but one did not get to play. They got replaced by the next team on the list. And one team got removed after the tournament started. Those teams were pros for the most part who could commit to being locked up and severely restricted for two weeks. They presumably did not have any other obligations like going to class, and they went home as soon as they lost, so for some teams it was less than a week. I think TBT would have worked even if they lost more teams. It survived one forfeit game with no problem. I think it would have been unlikely that they would have lost half the teams or so.
But I do not see college teams being able to do it. You would be asking them at a minimum to do the same thing three or four times during a season. There are just too many people the players, coaches, and others in the program come in contact with.
Things might change between now and November or January, but as it stands now, I do not see it.
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How would they play a national tournament at seasons end? How would the at large teams qualify if only intra-conference games are played? A lot of high major and mid major teams would cry foul if they were not picked. What is the point if no national champ is crowned.
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How would they play a national tournament at seasons end? How would the at large teams qualify if only intra-conference games are played? A lot of high major and mid major teams would cry foul if they were not picked. What is the point if no national champ is crowned.
Did you read the article? Every one of those questions is addressed.
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This is a good plan. The only thing I would add is that as covid has gone on we've learned that 14 day quarantines and then 10 day quarantines were not necessary.
Ie in our group homes when someone was taken out of the group home, or ventured out in their own we used to do 14 day quarantines. We then dropped it to 10, then 7, and now it's at 3.
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The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.
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I think the TBT was great and fortunately their bubble worked, but also remember that 3 teams had to leave due to positive tests. The main thing that made it work was highly motivated PROFESSIONALS who wanted it to work and worked hard to make it work. Those guys have lived overseas, stayed in crappy hotels, endured a different form of isolation and generally had it tougher than they had it at the Hyatt Regency Columbus Ohio.
While I think the "multiple bubble" idea is a great thing to try, I really question whether the NCAA has the professionalism to pull it off from a management and planning perspective. Also, with the amount of "stuff" that certain schools already hide in terms of recruiting violations and player payments and gifts it would be a simple extrapolation to assume that several schools would develop a strategy to cheat on the COVID tests if there was any way to do so. (especially any tests prior to entering the bubble, to avoid exclusion).
In my view this can work only if all the controls are outsourced to professional management but I doubt the NCAA is self-aware enough to realize they are not competent to do this.
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The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.
I agree with this analysis.
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The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.
Agree but I think it is more than that. I think the 'powers" could accept 10 players getting Covid.
If 100 get it, and let's say one dies. Oh boy.
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Agree but I think it is more than that. I think the 'powers" could accept 10 players getting Covid.
If 100 get it, and let's say one dies. Oh boy.
Don't worry ... Senate is working on legislation that would prevent victims from suing. So if the hired help die, no big deal.
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The only way the season is going to be completed is if the powers to be accept the fact that the players are going to get Covid.
Right. But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.
Honestly we don't deserve sports. We didn't do what we needed to do.
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https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/marlins-orioles-game-postponed-due-to-covid-19-outbreak-reportedly-resulting-in-at-least-14-cases/
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Right. But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.
Honestly we don't deserve sports. We didn't do what we needed to do.
Agreed. Sports is a luxury, and we as a society failed to do what we needed to do to deserve it. I’m not going to point fingers in this thread, and just leave it at that.
Our focus right now should be on minimizing the spread as much as reasonably possible, keeping the truly essential businesses open, and figuring out how to get past this damn thing.
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Hopefully the BE is trying to figure out what to do right now with basketball. Just waiting isn't going to work. The NCAA isn't exercising any leadership.
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Right. But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.
Honestly we don't deserve sports. We didn't do what we needed to do.
Yeah, we didnt do what was needed back about 10 years ago with H1N1 virus when 60 million cases were detected, and there was no lockdown. In fact, they quit testing for it.
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Yeah, we didnt do what was needed back about 10 years ago with H1N1 virus when 60 million cases were detected, and there was no lockdown. In fact, they quit testing for it.
What does that have to do with Covid-19?
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Right. But that's not really acceptable unless you have a plan to test, trace, quarantine, etc.
Honestly we don't deserve sports. We didn't do what we needed to do.
One person's opinion. A valid one. Doesn't agree with some doctors I know. I'm not in that field so I am not in the know.
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Yeah, we didnt do what was needed back about 10 years ago with H1N1 virus when 60 million cases were detected, and there was no lockdown. In fact, they quit testing for it.
We didn't lock down during the Black Plague either and that's about as relevant as your post.
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Yeah, we didnt do what was needed back about 10 years ago with H1N1 virus when 60 million cases were detected, and there was no lockdown. In fact, they quit testing for it.
I'm shocked that willie is "just a flu" guy.
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What does that have to do with Covid-19?
Similar virus strains. What an uninformed question.
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Similar virus strains. What an uninformed question.
And? They’re not the same thing. They’re much different. It’s like saying a Mazos Burger is the same as a Kopp’s Burger. One is good, the other isn’t
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Yeah, we didnt do what was needed back about 10 years ago with H1N1 virus when 60 million cases were detected, and there was no lockdown. In fact, they quit testing for it.
I'm no doctor, and I haven't stayed at Holiday Inn Express lately, but there just seems to be something different about H1N1 and COVID-19 when I read about them them from actual scientific sources.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-h1n1-flu-covid-pandemics-response.html
In perhaps the most important difference between the two pandemics of the 21st century, H1N1 illnesses responded well to anti-viral drugs already used to treat the flu. People in close contact with someone who caught H1N1 were commonly given the drugs as a precaution, limiting its spread. In 2009, Missouri had a stockpile of 600,000 doses of such drugs and received another 200,000 from the federal government. There is no approved treatment for COVID-19.
The first outbreak of H1N1 was reported in April 2009 in Mexico, and the disease soon spread across the U.S. border. The first person to die of H1N1 flu in the area, that May, was a 44-year-old man from St. Louis County who had traveled to Mexico.
By June, H1N1 had sickened about 21,500 Americans and caused 87 deaths across the country. Dozens of summer camps were closed because of outbreaks, including at Lake of the Ozarks and Potosi.
By April 2010, one year after the first cases, the CDC estimated that about 61 million Americans caught the H1N1 flu and 12,500 died. It is now considered one of the less severe pandemics in history, with a death rate of 0.001% to 0.007%.
Johns Hopkins University researchers project the U.S. death rate for the coronavirus at about 1.2%. If a projected 40% of the population is sickened, that would mean more than 1.5 million deaths without any suppression measures.
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I'm no doctor, and I haven't stayed at Holiday Inn Express lately, but there just seems to be something different about H1N1 and COVID-19 when I read about them them from actual scientific sources.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-h1n1-flu-covid-pandemics-response.html
In perhaps the most important difference between the two pandemics of the 21st century, H1N1 illnesses responded well to anti-viral drugs already used to treat the flu. People in close contact with someone who caught H1N1 were commonly given the drugs as a precaution, limiting its spread. In 2009, Missouri had a stockpile of 600,000 doses of such drugs and received another 200,000 from the federal government. There is no approved treatment for COVID-19.
The first outbreak of H1N1 was reported in April 2009 in Mexico, and the disease soon spread across the U.S. border. The first person to die of H1N1 flu in the area, that May, was a 44-year-old man from St. Louis County who had traveled to Mexico.
By June, H1N1 had sickened about 21,500 Americans and caused 87 deaths across the country. Dozens of summer camps were closed because of outbreaks, including at Lake of the Ozarks and Potosi.
By April 2010, one year after the first cases, the CDC estimated that about 61 million Americans caught the H1N1 flu and 12,500 died. It is now considered one of the less severe pandemics in history, with a death rate of 0.001% to 0.007%.
Johns Hopkins University researchers project the U.S. death rate for the coronavirus at about 1.2%. If a projected 40% of the population is sickened, that would mean more than 1.5 million deaths without any suppression measures.
So what is a million here or there, right?
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So when COVID deniers say 'it's just the flu", they mean the Spanish Flu.
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"The Spanish Flu swept through Marquette in October of 1918. Eight died and 150 were sickened on campus...While Marquette now had big plans for a new gym, it did not have a basketball schedule for the upcoming 1918-19 season. While Coach Ryan and the university awaited word on a schedule, he and the Tribune once again pleaded for men to try out for the team. In one of its editorials, the newspaper resorted to calling those who did not try out for the team as "slackers." No matter that many of these students were the same men who committed themselves for the war effort. Hardly slackers.
"With so many students committed to the S.A.T.C., the numbers of those who would try out for the young basketball program's third season were greatly reduced....
"A month later, as 1918 slipped into 1919, it was apparent that no games were going to be scheduled for that season. The Marquette Tribune then set its sights on the athletic board in a critical January 16, 1919, editorial, puzzled as to why the university higher ups had not put together a schedule. It was not clear as to whether the university was having difficulty finding other schools to play or whether those teams chose not to play the season, or if World War I were to blame.
"Certain authorities seem to be lax in the proposition of arranging games until it has to come to such a stage that it is very doubtful whether any contests will be held or not. Where the trouble lies we do not know....
"Basketball went dark at Marquette in 1918-19 for the first time. It would be the only time in school history that a season was canceled." Marquette did not play a game in the 1919-20 season until January of 1920.
The above was excerpted from the Introduction to the Centennial Edition of "You Can Call Me Al: The Colorful Journey of College Basketball's Original Flower Child, Al McGuire."
It will be interesting to see if another college basketball season goes dark on campus.
Go Warriors!
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"The Spanish Flu swept through the Marquette in October of 1918. Eight died and 150 were sickened on campus...While Marquette now had big plans for a new gym, it did not have a basketball schedule for the upcoming 1918-19 season. While Coach Ryan and the university awaited word on a schedule, he and the Tribune once again pleaded for men to try out for the team. In one of its editorials, the newspaper resorted to calling those who did not try out for the team as "slackers." No matter than many of these students were the same men who committed themselves for the war effort. Hardly slackers.
"With so many students committed to the S.A.T.C., the numbers of those who would try out for the young basketball program's third season were greatly reduced....
"A month later, as 1918 slipped into 1919, it was apparent that no games were going to be scheduled for that season. The Marquette Tribune then set its sights on the athletic board in a critical January 16, 1919, editorial, puzzled as to why the university higher ups had not put together a schedule. It was not clear as to whether the university was having difficulty finding other schools to play or whether those teams chose not to play the season, or if World War I were to blame.
"Certain authorities seem to be lax in the proposition of arranging games until it has to come to such a stage that it is very doubtful whether any contests will be held or not. Where the trouble lies we do not know....
"Basketball went dark at Marquette in 1918-19 for the first time. It would be the only time in school history that a season was canceled." Marquette did not play a game in the 1919-20 season until January of 1920.
The above was excerpted from the Introduction to the Centennial Edition of "You Can Call Me Al: The Colorful Journey of College Basketball's Original Flower Child, Al McGuire."
It will be interesting to see if another college basketball season goes dark on campus.
Go Warriors!
Wow great find
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Wow great find
Actually, warrior joe is the author of that book.
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Actually, warrior joe is the author of that book.
Well then, great work WarriorJoe
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You are welcome, fellas.
During my research of digitized versions of the Marquette Tribune, Milwaukee Sentinel, Milwaukee Journal and other local dailies, there was very little on whether Midwest colleges and other schools canceled seasons based on how the flu affected various campuses.
It seems that between the flu, the MU students coming back from serving in World War I and those enrolled in the S.A.T.C.,
that there just were not enough players for schools like Marquette to have a season.
We will see how the schools handle this particular flu.
I don't think any of us ever imagined something like this happening again.
Keep the faith, and stay well.
Go Warriors!
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Just putting this here:
UConn cancelled football season. I think they should do it permanently ;D
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353 Total NCAA Division 1 Basketball Teams. No regular season, just one national tourney over the entire month of March. It'd be eight/nine rounds. Everyone is in, final elimination.
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353 Total NCAA Division 1 Basketball Teams. No regular season, just one national tourney over the entire month of March. It'd be eight/nine rounds. Everyone is in, final elimination.
Hell yeah!
(https://i.gifer.com/DJe.gif)
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353 Total NCAA Division 1 Basketball Teams. No regular season, just one national tourney over the entire month of March. It'd be eight/nine rounds. Everyone is in, final elimination.
You could have 4 or 5 teams at 64 campus sites in the "preliminary" rounds.
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353 Total NCAA Division 1 Basketball Teams. No regular season, just one national tourney over the entire month of March. It'd be eight/nine rounds. Everyone is in, final elimination.
A total and complete 💯 crapshoot ;D
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353 Total NCAA Division 1 Basketball Teams. No regular season, just one national tourney over the entire month of March. It'd be eight/nine rounds. Everyone is in, final elimination.
Zero seeding. Just names drawn out of a hat. Except UNC/Duke and Louisville/Kentucky are definitely first round games
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Say what?
College basketball set to return to T-Mobile Arena in November with fans
https://www.ktnv.com/sports/college-basketball-set-to-return-to-t-mobile-arena-in-november-with-fans
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Say what?
College basketball set to return to T-Mobile Arena in November with fans
https://www.ktnv.com/sports/college-basketball-set-to-return-to-t-mobile-arena-in-november-with-fans
Wasn't that set a long time ago, like all the other early season tournaments?
Maybe the organizer and arena are just being optimistic by selling tickets....
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The Athletic released their plan to save non-con play. Similar to the MTE pod system I proposed, but done regionally so travel costs are kept down.
https://theathletic.com/1980558/2020/08/10/college-basketball-nonconference-schedule-national-covid-19-coronavirus/?source=user_shared_article
Here's the proposed Marquette pod:
Site: Milwaukee
Arena: Fiserv Forum or Panther Arena
Teams: Bradley, Green Bay, Illinois State, Indiana State, Marquette, Milwaukee, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Quick take: We might get objections to playing on the home floors for Marquette or Milwaukee. Well, the NHL hasn’t collapsed by holding playoffs in Edmonton and Toronto. Plus, zero fans should mitigate the concern. If not, shift the pod to Green Bay, which is neutral ground in every sense for almost everyone. Either way, the Marquette-Wisconsin rivalry is intact and Northwestern gets a power-league foe in the Golden Eagles. Yes, the Wildcats must trek north to make the pods work overall. But an hour’s drive is basically the same as trying to get to downtown Chicago in rush hour, and they’re sequestered in a hotel anyway, no matter where they are.
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https://247sports.com/Article/March-Madness-2021-NCAA-basketball-executive-COVID-19-150205641/
Quite the statement from Gavitt.
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https://247sports.com/Article/March-Madness-2021-NCAA-basketball-executive-COVID-19-150205641/
Quite the statement from Gavitt.
It's a matter of survival. Without the tournament, college sports as we know it will end. Vast numbers of non-revenue sports will go away and even the revenue sports will be significantly changed.
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https://247sports.com/Article/March-Madness-2021-NCAA-basketball-executive-COVID-19-150205641/
Quite the statement from Gavitt.
It would be nice if some of these pie-in-the-sky statements could include some details that give me reassurance.