COVID Economy

[pbiflyer]

We spent the last month totally redoing the porch and deck.  Bring beer when you visit PBI. 

I still have a couple from this fridge in Vegas we found a couple weeks ago......

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

We spent the last month totally redoing the porch and deck.  Bring beer when you visit PBI. 

Nice!

[forgetful]

Meanwhile, covid hospitalizations in Sconnie are under 100. Aka, its over, aina?

Check out Missouri right now. In places people refuse to get vaccinated, mostly along political lines, things are definitely not over.

[The Sultan]

Check out Missouri right now. In places people refuse to get vaccinated, mostly along political lines, things are definitely not over.

For the vaccinated, it's over.

[forgetful]

For the vaccinated, it's over.

That's kind of like saying that a hurricane is over if you are in the eye of the storm.

Yes, currently, if you are vaccinated the risks are very low, and it is safe to return to life as normal. But like in the eye of a storm, it may be temporary.

The Delta variant is substantially more transmissible, and significantly for deadly. We are fortunate it does not escape the vaccine, but it does escape natural immunity. The higher rate of transmissibility increases the risk of spread in non-vaccinated populations, where it can continue to mutate, possibly generating an escape variant.

If that happens, everyone might be back in the storm.

[The Sultan]

The eye of the hurricane implies that another part of the storm is guaranteed to hit.  But it's not.  And sure an escape variant in theory could happen, but it hasn't yet and vaccines have proven effective against those that exist currently.  Again, for the vaccinated, this is pretty much done. 

[tower912]

Unless you are one of those people who have to take care of the sick.   

[forgetful]

The eye of the hurricane implies that another part of the storm is guaranteed to hit.  But it's not.  And sure an escape variant in theory could happen, but it hasn't yet and vaccines have proven effective against those that exist currently.  Again, for the vaccinated, this is pretty much done.

You know, a storm can largely dissipate when one is in the eye, so get hit by a weakened version (e.g. getting  very mild or asymptomatic COVID due to vaccination), or get hit hard again.

There is a ton unknown still about how this will proceed. Claiming its done is naive and reeks of "mission accomplished" re. Iraq 2003. I promise you those that work on the research side are still vigilant, because if we don't "keep sciencing" we might get hit by a stronger side of the storm unprepared. Not to mention those that still have to care for/treat/respond to those who are sick.

Also, a Delta+ variant is already being investigated due to it being highly over-represented in breakthrough cases in vaccinated individuals in India. If it is indeed an escape variant, and how much it reduces efficacy is still being ascertained.

But you are largely arguing for argument sake again at this point.

[Jockey]

I think saying that we don't care if the unvaccinated live or die is a statement that would be supported by many. They have made a conscious choice to not get vaccinated. The people dying now have chosen that path.

But Forgetful does make a great point and that is why we must continue to be vigilant. I certainly have no qualms about telling acquaintances who are not vaccinated that they are selfish and are putting our country at risk. I have lost a few friends. I don't care - as they have revealed who they are.

[The Sultan]

You know, a storm can largely dissipate when one is in the eye, so get hit by a weakened version (e.g. getting  very mild or asymptomatic COVID due to vaccination), or get hit hard again.

There is a ton unknown still about how this will proceed. Claiming its done is naive and reeks of "mission accomplished" re. Iraq 2003. I promise you those that work on the research side are still vigilant, because if we don't "keep sciencing" we might get hit by a stronger side of the storm unprepared. Not to mention those that still have to care for/treat/respond to those who are sick.

Also, a Delta+ variant is already being investigated due to it being highly over-represented in breakthrough cases in vaccinated individuals in India. If it is indeed an escape variant, and how much it reduces efficacy is still being ascertained.

But you are largely arguing for argument sake again at this point.

Ah the "you keep responding to me"!lame attempt to end debate. A particular favorite of yours.

You're too close to see the forest through the trees. Sure there are going to be variants and some vaccinated will get sick. Likely not sick enough for hospitalization and death though.

Keep sciencing for sure. But for most of us, it's over.

[The Sultan]

I think saying that we don't care if the unvaccinated live or die is a statement that would be supported by many. They have made a conscious choice to not get vaccinated. The people dying now have chosen that path.

But Forgetful does make a great point and that is why we must continue to be vigilant. I certainly have no qualms about telling acquaintances who are not vaccinated that they are selfish and are putting our country at risk. I have lost a few friends. I don't care - as they have revealed who they are.

What kind of person says they don't care if people live or die?

[Jockey]

What kind of person says they don't care if people live or die?

I don't know. Ask those who refuse to get vaccinated. Ask those who are actively contributing to other people dying. I do neither of those things. I was vaccinated the very 1st day I could get it. I have personally told every person in my extended family yo get vaccinated. I have told almost every friend to get vaccinated. So, I have actually showed that I do care.

Remember, virtually all people dying of Covid in the US now are doing so by choice. Not my choice - their choice.

[tower912]

Ah the "you keep responding to me"!lame attempt to end debate. A particular favorite of yours.

You're too close to see the forest through the trees. Sure there are going to be variants and some vaccinated will get sick. Likely not sick enough for hospitalization and death though.

Keep sciencing for sure. But for most of us, it's over.

(whistling past the graveyard)    Sorry, fluffy.     As long as there are areas in the world as well as here at home where the virus is spreading unchecked, it isn't over.     We are but one variant away from being back at square one.   

[JWags85]

(whistling past the graveyard)    Sorry, fluffy.     As long as there are areas in the world as well as here at home where the virus is spreading unchecked, it isn't over.     We are but one variant away from being back at square one.   

By that token, we are one vaccine resistant variant away from any commonly vaccinated disease from disaster.  20MM people are year still get measles in less developed countries but we don't live in constant fear of that.

Saying that COVID isn't defeated globally and some measure of caution needs to be taken? Sure.  But acting like all the vaccine work and those who are fully vaccinated still has us on the razors edge seems to be trending towards excessive worry instead of "trust/follow the science"

[The Sultan]

I don't know. Ask those who refuse to get vaccinated. Ask those who are actively contributing to other people dying. I do neither of those things. I was vaccinated the very 1st day I could get it. I have personally told every person in my extended family yo get vaccinated. I have told almost every friend to get vaccinated. So, I have actually showed that I do care.

Remember, virtually all people dying of Covid in the US now are doing so by choice. Not my choice - their choice.

Ah.  I see you have to shift the goalposts because your original statement was so reprehensible.

[tower912]

By that token, we are one vaccine resistant variant away from any commonly vaccinated disease from disaster.  20MM people are year still get measles in less developed countries but we don't live in constant fear of that.

Saying that COVID isn't defeated globally and some measure of caution needs to be taken? Sure.  But acting like all the vaccine work and those who are fully vaccinated still has us on the razors edge seems to be trending towards excessive worry instead of "trust/follow the science"

They are still sciencing.    It is truly astonishing to think how far science has come in relation to this virus in the last 18 months.   Kudos to all.   I just disagree about whether it is over for the vaccinated.     I am living my life maskless these days, but I still wear one on alarms.     And I know for a fact that I had two patients in the field who had it during the last 6 weeks.    So far, my immunities from having had a significant case of COVID as well as both vaccines has held.   And I am aware of the studies that say that combination provides the best protection.      For now. 
  It isn't over until it is contained everywhere.     And it is well enough understood to be able to stay ahead of the variants.    In my opinion.    Which I recognize is not universal.   


When I go to a fire, there are stages based on the severity of the fire.    There is the initial knockdown where you put out the fire that is so impressive to everybody watching.    The flames shooting out the window, etc.     Then the real work begins.    You look for the fire spread.    You put holes in walls, in ceilings.    You search voids.    You extinguish the hotspots and do the overhaul until you are positive that everything is out.    One of the most embarrassing things that can happen is to have to come back to find the same house burning again because you were too lazy to do the job right the first time.     The dreaded rekindle.     

In my opinion, the USA has put out the big fire.    We, as a society, are doing a perfunctory job of doing the hard work, getting into the corners and void spaces, to make sure this is done with.      And I fear that our laziness as a society will lead to a rekindle of the virus.   

  To say nothing of what is going on in the rest of the world.   

[Jockey]

Ah.  I see you have to shift the goalposts because your original statement was so reprehensible.

No.

I stand by my original statement.

[The Sultan]

No.

I stand by my original statement.

So you're a psychopath then...

[Jockey]

So you're a psychopath then...

Doctor fluffy?

[4everwarriors]

Science is real. Its over, hey?

[forgetful]

By that token, we are one vaccine resistant variant away from any commonly vaccinated disease from disaster.  20MM people are year still get measles in less developed countries but we don't live in constant fear of that.

Saying that COVID isn't defeated globally and some measure of caution needs to be taken? Sure.  But acting like all the vaccine work and those who are fully vaccinated still has us on the razors edge seems to be trending towards excessive worry instead of "trust/follow the science"

https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00041-0

There are reasons virus's like measles are different. Unfortunately, unlike for measles, the threat of an escape  variant for COVID is real, and likely probable if it keeps spreading like it is.

This isn't excessive worry. I'm really not all that worried. It is following the science, which clearly shows pretending this is over is naive.

That doesn't mean vaccinated people need to go back to masks, but it does mean that we shouldn't pretend like it is over, rather those that are sciencing need to remain vigilant. And everyone else needs to be prepared  to do their part (re. masks) if it indeed becomes prudent again.

[JWags85]

https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00041-0

There are reasons virus's like measles are different. Unfortunately, unlike for measles, the threat of an escape  variant for COVID is real, and likely probable if it keeps spreading like it is.

This isn't excessive worry. I'm really not all that worried. It is following the science, which clearly shows pretending this is over is naive.

That doesn't mean vaccinated people need to go back to masks, but it does mean that we shouldn't pretend like it is over, rather those that are sciencing need to remain vigilant. And everyone else needs to be prepared  to do their part (re. masks) if it indeed becomes prudent again.

Thanks for the info.  And I appreciate your perspective.  I wasn't directly addressing you about the worry.  But phrases like "back to square one", "overrun by variants", or the like seem extreme. 

I even mentioned before that I can understand and respect an far more conservative and healthier dose of caution/vigilance from those directly in the science, its their job to do so.  But attempting to dissuade from an optimism, grounded in the reality that some risk still exists globally, in favor of acting like there is a hurricane outside the front door and we'd be back to where we were in April 2020 just seems problematic and hysterical.  Especially when vaccination is so imperative and should be viewed as much as a fantastic solution as possible.

[MU82]

From Yahoo Finance:

‌On Friday, we learned nonfarm payrolls grew by 850,000 last month, with economists viewing the report as a signal that some of the hiring pressures we've documented within the labor market are starting to ease.

But underneath the headline data — which also showed a slight uptick in the unemployment rate as the number of people looking for work increased — we wanted to flag a few charts outlining some of the big trends set to drive the labor market in the months ahead.

‌The first comes to us via Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed, who noted that while overall labor participation was flat at 61.6% in June, we saw a notable uptick in prime-age participation.

During the month, the labor force participation rate among adults 25-54 rose to 81.7%, the highest since the pandemic began and matching the level seen in January 2018. As you may recall, the economy during that year was deemed strong enough by the Fed to warrant four rate hikes.

The labor force participation rate for prime age workers rose to its highest level since the pandemic began and matching the rate seen in January 2018, a time when the labor market was strong enough the Fed raised rates four times over the next year. (Source: FRED)

After the financial crisis, the decline in participation among prime-age workers was a major sign that the economic recovery was underserving workers and growth at-large. The rise in this rate over the second half of the 2010s was one of the most encouraging economic trends underway — before COVID-19 disrupted the economy.

‌A continued rebound in participation among those enjoying the fastest career and earnings growth will be a key gauge of the health of the post-pandemic economic recovery.

Another key area economists have been watching is the battered leisure and hospitality space, which bore the brunt of layoffs and furloughs during the most acute phase of the crisis.

As the economy has rebounded, this sector has seen some of the stiffest hiring competition, and wage increases have followed as a result. In June, average hourly earnings for this sector hit a new high of $18.23, a new record for the series and a 7.1% increase over the same month last year.

[MU82]

The manager of a Lincoln, Neb. Burger King and 8 other employees took a hike -- citing low pay and poor working conditions -- and used the store's sign (and social media) to announce it:



https://illinoisnewstoday.com/burger-king-workers-in-nebraska-depart-and-leave-a-message-we-all-quit/296289/

[MU82]

In many southern states (and a few others), those who likely caught COVID-19 at work are almost always denied workers compensation.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article252620273.html

North Carolina, like many GOP-run states, has very strict workers comp laws. Unlike many northern states, the legislature here refused to pass laws making it easier for people who probably got the virus at work to get compensated. Such a law was considered, but business groups spent millions lobbying against it ... and the law, like thousands of COVID-19 sufferers, died.

My wife personally knows 4 people at her hospital who almost certainly were infected on the job. All were denied workers comp. One is a 40-something long-hauler who, more than a year later, is still battling fatigue, migraines and other issues.

And yet, of course, the hospital constantly takes out ads on TV and in newspapers bragging about its "heroes" who worked tirelessly during the pandemic. It has treated many of those heroes like dirt ... but if bragging about them gets the executives (dozens of whom make $1M+) more money, heroes they are!