COVID Economy

[#UnleashSean]

1. The cumulative overall death rate in the hardest hit areas of the Spanish flu were around 10-15 per 1000 people (that is all ages). As of May 2nd, 11.8 per 1000 18-29 year old were hospitalized for COVID, over all ages, 50 per 1000 were hospitalized. In 1918, they would not have gotten intensive care, and most/many would have died. So 18-29 year olds are being hit hard.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

This will be the only one I respond to, as the rest are either totally incorrect, or you are just playing a selective stat game (that we already went over on why they are wrong)

We both know they stats are highly skewed. As until very recently (like yesterday) they were only testing people who were severe enough to be eligible to receive a test.  We both know that the 11.8 per 1000 on 18-29 year olds stat is completely incorrect. They are the demographic most likely to receive zero testing. Meaning that stat is completely inflated due to only severe cases being tested.

I will once again, point in the direction of the Theodore Roosevelt ship (that you completely ignored?) This is the only true case study we have of active, healthy individuals in close quarters. As of April 29th (the day they stopped reporting) 96% of crew were tested. 969 cases were positive. 3904 were negative.

7 of these 969 were hospitalized. (Already going against your 11.8 on 18-29) Of course, were all 7 of these 18-29? No. We unfortunately only know the age of one. The single death on board, age 41. So while we can't assume that all 7 hospitalized were older in age, it is very likely.

The last thing I will say on this subject is the death rate. We have 1/969 reported. This is strikingly different then the one being broadcast around the world. Meaning 1 of 2 things, the death rate is being fudged (I've alluded to this happening in the hospital I work at) or this virus is really only lethal to those with extreme underlying conditions.

[forgetful]

This will be the only one I respond to, as the rest are either totally incorrect, or you are just playing a selective stat game (that we already went over on why they are wrong)

We both know they stats are highly skewed. As until very recently (like yesterday) they were only testing people who were severe enough to be eligible to receive a test.  We both know that the 11.8 per 1000 on 18-29 year olds stat is completely incorrect. They are the demographic most likely to receive zero testing. Meaning that stat is completely inflated due to only severe cases being tested.

I will once again, point in the direction of the Theodore Roosevelt ship (that you completely ignored?) This is the only true case study we have of active, healthy individuals in close quarters. As of April 29th (the day they stopped reporting) 96% of crew were tested. 969 cases were positive. 3904 were negative.

7 of these 969 were hospitalized. (Already going against your 11.8 on 18-29) Of course, were all 7 of these 18-29? No. We unfortunately only know the age of one. The single death on board, age 41. So while we can't assume that all 7 hospitalized were older in age, it is very likely.

The last thing I will say on this subject is the death rate. We have 1/969 reported. This is strikingly different then the one being broadcast around the world. Meaning 1 of 2 things, the death rate is being fudged (I've alluded to this happening in the hospital I work at) or this virus is really only lethal to those with extreme underlying conditions.

There was an error in my stat regarding hospitalization rates. I don't know if it is due to them updating (changing) the webpage or just me reading it wrong.

If you use the serological data from NY (actual total infections) though, and extend to total number of infections equivalent to the Spanish Flu, the results end up roughly the same.

I only correct these, because I think it is important for the overall analysis to be right. It is clear that you have you mind set, and will reject any data that runs contrary to your opinion. Given that all of this in the end is unprovable. I find no benefit in continuing to present firm data.

I only add, that contrary to what you state, the rest of my statements are from scientific literature sources, in peer reviewed journals. So if you have a problem with the data, take it up with the scientific community.

[#UnleashSean]

There was an error in my stat regarding hospitalization rates. I don't know if it is due to them updating (changing) the webpage or just me reading it wrong.

If you use the serological data from NY (actual total infections) though, and extend to total number of infections equivalent to the Spanish Flu, the results end up roughly the same.

I only correct these, because I think it is important for the overall analysis to be right. It is clear that you have you mind set, and will reject any data that runs contrary to your opinion. Given that all of this in the end is unprovable. I find no benefit in continuing to present firm data.

I only add, that contrary to what you state, the rest of my statements are from scientific literature sources, in peer reviewed journals. So if you have a problem with the data, take it up with the scientific community.

I reject data that we both know to be incomplete.

It's weird however that you continue to ignore the only study where they tested 95% of the population.

[mu_hilltopper]

I love this gem from yesterday's MU Law School poll .. taken about 10 days ago.

Over the past year, do you feel the economy has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?

28% said the economy has gotten better over the last year.
20% said the economy has stayed the same.

Also, 48% told the pollster they were at Arby's right now.

[Jockey]

I love this gem from yesterday's MU Law School poll .. taken about 10 days ago.

Over the past year, do you feel the economy has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?

28% said the economy has gotten better over the last year.
20% said the economy has stayed the same.

Also, 48% told the pollster they were at Arby's right now.

Supporters of the prez will never admit anything is wrong as that would be a criticism of him.  They don't do that.

[tower912]

Denial.  Not just a river in Egypt.

[StillAWarrior]

Supporters of the prez will never admit anything is wrong as that would be a criticism of him.  They don't do that.

A number of "supporters of the prez" have criticized him on this board.

[rocky_warrior]

It's weird however that you continue to ignore the only study where they tested 95% of the population.

And was that population representative of the population at large? 

[4everwarriors]

What economy, hey?

[#UnleashSean]

And was that population representative of the population at large?

Depends on how much you believe in the navy fitness system.

I myself would show this as proof its not deadly to those with no under lying conditions and to be a start to herd immunity for the "general" population

[MU82]

What economy, hey?

Exactly.

[MU82]

Kroger says it has hired more than 100K workers in the past eight weeks, including those from the hardest-hit sectors like restaurants, hotels and food service distributors.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17871686-kroger-family-of-companies-provides-new-career-opportunities-to-100000-workers

"Throughout the pandemic, Kroger's top priority has been to provide and maintain a safe environment for our associates and customers with open stores, comprehensive ecommerce solutions and an efficiently operating supply chain," said Rodney McMullen, Kroger's chairman and CEO. "Since March, we have invested to reward our associates and safeguard our associates, customers and communities."

The Kroger Family of Companies has invested $700 million since March to reward associates and safeguard associates, customers and communities.

"In the coming months, we know that our associates' needs will continue to evolve and change, and our commitment is that we will continue to listen, be responsive and make decisions that advance the needs of our associates, customers, communities and business," continued McMullen.


This would seem to fly in the face of the narrative that "nobody" wants to work when they can simply collect unemployment benefits instead.

By and large, people want to work.

Regardless, the increased unemployment benefits are only a Band-Aid -- and one meant to stimulate a flagging economy. Decades of studies have shown unemployment benefits to be among the very best stimulus plans because they typically go right back into the economy. People aren't getting unemployment benefits and then investing that money or burying it in the backyard. They are consumers who quickly spend it at businesses that desperately need economic help.

Unfortunately, some folks are very afraid that the "least of these" might be gaming the system somehow. Much better that only rich people game the system.

[tower912]

Went out on Saturday and bought a couple of mattresses.  Went by appointment, had the store to ourselves.

Received a handwritten thank you card from the salesman today.   For a $1000 purchase.

[Hards Alumni]

Went out on Saturday and bought a couple of mattresses.  Went by appointment, had the store to ourselves.

Received a handwritten thank you card from the salesman today.   For a $1000 purchase.

Classy guy.  I bet you'll go back as well as rec him to friends and fam.

[tower912]

It was a pleasant experience.   And yes, I will be recommending him to others.

[🏀]

Went out on Saturday and bought a couple of mattresses.  Went by appointment, had the store to ourselves.

Received a handwritten thank you card from the salesman today.   For a $1000 purchase.

The handwritten card is always a nice touch, I try to get my guys to do that. Never do, made them do it for holiday cards this year, so many compliments back.

[JWags85]

I’ve went mattress shopping twice, and both ended up being one of the best sales experiences I’ve ever had. Where you found yourself wishing it was a more frequent purchase that you could go to your salesperson again more often.

Meanwhile, I’ve had some business dealings with the group behind Sleep Number beds, who created a niche to surpass that whole in store purchase experience, and they ended up being some of the biggest unpleasant dbags I’ve ever met professionally.

[4everwarriors]

Sumwon 'splain ta me y mattress stores, car washes, liquor stores, and garden centers are considered "essential" in Sconnie, hey?

[tower912]

Knott sconnie, hay

[Eldon]

Conspiracy theory: Mattress stores are a huge money-laundering operation.

https://www.npr.org/2018/12/13/676543180/why-are-there-so-many-mattress-stores

[WarriorDad]

Classy guy.  I bet you'll go back as well as rec him to friends and fam.

How often are you burning through mattresses that you go back?  Live in West Virginia or Racine?

[Hards Alumni]

How often are you burning through mattresses that you go back?  Live in West Virginia or Racine?

You're thinking couches, bro!

[Spotcheck Billy]

Sumwon 'splain ta me y mattress stores, car washes, liquor stores, and garden centers are considered "essential" in Sconnie, hey?

Liquor stores had to stay open after the bars were closed. If all the alcoholics were forced to go cold turkey the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed. Obviously dentists are mainly unessential except for emergency situations.

[StillAWarrior]

This Unemployment Insurance Calculator illustrates an issue that has been discussed previously in this thread (or on this board, anyway...if this is the wrong thread).  I know that some employers are having a bit of a challenge because some employees who are on unemployment are getting considerably more than they get when they are working.

[mu_hilltopper]

Man, the economy is so .. effed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/economy/coronavirus-unemployment-claims.html

“I hate to say it, but this is going to take longer and look grimmer than we thought,” Nicholas Bloom, an economist at Stanford University, said of the path to recovery.
Mr. Bloom is a co-author of an analysis that estimates 42 percent of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss.

“Firms intend to hire these people back,” he said, referring to a recent survey of businesses by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. “But we know from the past that these aspirations often don’t turn out to be true.”