COVID Economy

[Lennys Tap]

I am just being realistic. Sorry if that bothers you.

Realism doesn’t bother me.

I just think you moved the goalposts a little - from being against opening up because you don’t think it’s safe to being against it because you now think it won’t result in business as usual immediately (which I and everyone I’ve spoken to readily acknowledge). If I misinterpreted your remarks I apologize.

[GooooMarquette]

Realism doesn’t bother me.

I just think you moved the goalposts a little - from being against opening up because you don’t think it’s safe to being against it because you now think it won’t result in business as usual immediately (which I and everyone I’ve spoken to readily acknowledge). If I misinterpreted your remarks I apologize.

FWIW I am concerned about both. I have mainly been talking about the safety part because that is my primary concern; if we open too quickly, I envision a terrible fall and winter.

I only brought up the business part because it looks like we are opening up sooner regardless of my concerns, so I wanted to express my opinion that many people are overstating the rebound that will come from reopening.

Instead of me moving the goalposts, think of it as me changing my responses as the goalposts are already moving (the economy reopening before I think it should).

I would LOVE to be wrong. I hope the second wave is smaller than I expect. And I hope the economy rebounds faster than I expect. Truly. I just can’t see it....

[Lennys Tap]

FWIW I am concerned about both. I have mainly been talking about the safety part because that is my primary concern; if we open too quickly, I envision a terrible fall and winter.

I only brought up the business part because it looks like we are opening up sooner regardless of my concerns, so I wanted to express my opinion that many people are overstating the rebound that will come from reopening.

Instead of me moving the goalposts, think of it as me changing my responses as the goalposts are already moving (the economy reopening before I think it should).

I would LOVE to be wrong. I hope the second wave is smaller than I expect. And I hope the economy rebounds faster than I expect. Truly. I just can’t see it....

Fair enough, Gooo

[WarriorDad]

Nashville proposed a 32% increase in property taxes.  Other municipalities will have to come up with ways to fill in gaps to their budgets through cuts or large tax increases.  Likely new realities coming, but what to extremes in the COVID economy?

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/495311-nashville-mayor-proposes-32-property-tax-hike-in-response-to-coronavirus

[pbiflyer]

Nashville proposed a 32% increase in property taxes.  Other municipalities will have to come up with ways to fill in gaps to their budgets through cuts or large tax increases.  Likely new realities coming, but what to extremes in the COVID economy?

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/495311-nashville-mayor-proposes-32-property-tax-hike-in-response-to-coronavirus

Massive layoffs and pay cuts are likely coming to state and local governments

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/coronavirus-relief-bill-layoffs-coming-to-state-local-governments.html

[tower912]

My city has continued to run staffing levels at great recession level.    20% lower than prior to 2008.     A rainy day fund equivalent to 1/3 of an annual budget.   No layoffs yet, but a hiring freeze and a recognition that the layoffs may be coming in a year.   

[Hards Alumni]

When businesses are able to reopen at limited capactiy... will they?  Will restaurants open at 50% capacity?  The risk vs reward for doing so would be pretty small.  You'd have to add staff, clean meticulously, and do all the normal things you'd do as a business... but at an increased cost... and with less customers than a 'normal' day.  Do you raise prices to compensate?  People's budgets are already tight so that may not work.  Then what happens if we get a second surge of cases and shut downs happen again.  If it's me, I don't reopen my restaurant, and continue with lower overhead and try to weather the storm with takeout and delivery.  Especially if my restaurant is smaller in size.

[mu_hilltopper]

It will be interesting how Wisconsin municipalities deal with this.

Depending on your property wealth, municipalities have two funding sources .. local property taxes, plus some state shared revenue.   

Every year, a handful of properties won't pay their taxes.  The county will send money to the municipalities anyhow and make them whole .. the county goes after the late payers.   Because of this, Wisconsin municipalities are somewhat immune to tax collection issues.

But .. imagine if 20% of all properties can't pay their property taxes.  Or 50%.  The county wouldn't be able to absorb that problem. 

I'm not sure about school funding, but it's likely the same -- but an even bigger problem.


#doom

[jesmu84]

If either of these are unrelated to the topic, please remove:

1. Why is it "okay" to bailout large corporations that are struggling due to the impacts of the virus, but not "okay" to bailout states that are struggling due to the impacts of the virus?

2. I sincerely fear for the post-covid economy. When the country was stabilized following the recovery from the 2008 recession, we easily saw where the vast majority of resources/money ended up. I fear it could be even worse this time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rich-americans-seize-historic-chance-110000526.html

[mu_hilltopper]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/temporary-coronavirus-layoffs-are-turning-permanent-around-u-s

Every day that goes by, it's harder to see how the world doesn't burn down in a  vicious cycle of evaporating demand and unemployment.

[MU82]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/temporary-coronavirus-layoffs-are-turning-permanent-around-u-s

Every day that goes by, it's harder to see how the world doesn't burn down in a  vicious cycle of evaporating demand and unemployment.

It almost sounds like you're implying that Wojo getting to the NCAA tournament 3 of the last 4 years but failing to win a tourney game is not the one problem that is on most of America's collective mind.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/temporary-coronavirus-layoffs-are-turning-permanent-around-u-s

Every day that goes by, it's harder to see how the world doesn't burn down in a  vicious cycle of evaporating demand and unemployment.

It is starting to be a US-centric problem. Of course the economic connections are global now, but many of the other countries in the world have started to get it under control. Us, not so much.

[GooooMarquette]

It is starting to be a US-centric problem. Of course the economic connections are global now, but many of the other countries in the world have started to get it under control. Us, not so much.

Don't worry. We're just waiting on the 'magic.'

[WarriorDad]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/temporary-coronavirus-layoffs-are-turning-permanent-around-u-s

Every day that goes by, it's harder to see how the world doesn't burn down in a  vicious cycle of evaporating demand and unemployment.

Glad I own multiple shotguns.  I expect some of my anti-gun friends may come over for some advice. Ha ha.


One good outcomes (maybe) are mortgage refi.  Got ours redone earlier this week for under 3%.

[MU82]

Will Americans react like this when Disney reopens its parks here?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disney-shanghai/shanghai-disneyland-tickets-sell-out-as-park-prepares-to-re-open-idUSKBN22K0N6

Tickets for the earliest days of Shanghai Disneyland’s re-opening in China sold out rapidly on Friday, according to the park’s website, as it prepares to next week end a three-month shutdown because of the coronavirus outbreak.

As businesses like this -- theme parks, amusement parks, concert venues, sports facilities, etc -- reopen, it's going to be an interesting look into the psyches of American consumers.

[Warriors4ever]

Based on how they flocked to beaches during lockdowns, I’m not optimistic they will show any restraint at all.
Article says they are will be operating at less than 30% capacity.

[tower912]

The coach of my son's 13U travel baseball team found a tournament going on in Pigeon Forge the weekend of May 23.    Because of all of the cancelled tournaments this spring, he really wants the team to drive the 11 hours and go play in it.    The reaction of the parents has been educational.    We have the one family with the father who got it 4 weeks of feeling terrible but not hospitalized bad who are opposed.    My wife is as negatively wound up as I have ever seen her and taking it out on me like it was my idea, because I am not in lockstep agreement with her.   We have at least 7 families out of the 12 who are all for it.     

[Hards Alumni]

The coach of my son's 13U travel baseball team found a tournament going on in Pigeon Forge the weekend of May 23.    Because of all of the cancelled tournaments this spring, he really wants the team to drive the 11 hours and go play in it.    The reaction of the parents has been educational.    We have the one family with the father who got it 4 weeks of feeling terrible but not hospitalized bad who are opposed.    My wife is as negatively wound up as I have ever seen her and taking it out on me like it was my idea, because I am not in lockstep agreement with her.   We have at least 7 families out of the 12 who are all for it.     

Travel recreational baseball in two weeks?  We may not even see professional baseball this year, and most certainly won't see it for at least another month or two.

Seems like a terrible idea.  I know it sucks to basically lose our summer...

[MU82]

The coach of my son's 13U travel baseball team found a tournament going on in Pigeon Forge the weekend of May 23.    Because of all of the cancelled tournaments this spring, he really wants the team to drive the 11 hours and go play in it.    The reaction of the parents has been educational.    We have the one family with the father who got it 4 weeks of feeling terrible but not hospitalized bad who are opposed.    My wife is as negatively wound up as I have ever seen her and taking it out on me like it was my idea, because I am not in lockstep agreement with her.   We have at least 7 families out of the 12 who are all for it.     

Wow, tower ... that's an interesting situation and quite a dilemma.

I was going to umpire at Cooperstown again in June but they canceled the entire summer schedule -- which is fine because I would have withdrawn anyway. Our spring youth baseball season in Charlotte obviously was canceled, and I have already decided I won't do any tournaments this summer if there are any. I also have decided to not coach at the Hornets' youth camps this summer. Just isn't worth it to me. Fall baseball is big here, and I'll decide about umpiring there in a few months. I fully expect to get back into coaching basketball in November, but who knows what "fun" the virus will have in store for us all then?

If I were a parent in your situation, I'm not sure how I'd react. Any of us can say what we think we'd say or do in a given situation, but until it actually presents itself, we can't really know.

Unless I'm reading you wrong, it sounds like you are one who is "all for it." Would you be interested in sharing why that's your stance?

[StillAWarrior]

The coach of my son's 13U travel baseball team found a tournament going on in Pigeon Forge the weekend of May 23.    Because of all of the cancelled tournaments this spring, he really wants the team to drive the 11 hours and go play in it.    The reaction of the parents has been educational.    We have the one family with the father who got it 4 weeks of feeling terrible but not hospitalized bad who are opposed.    My wife is as negatively wound up as I have ever seen her and taking it out on me like it was my idea, because I am not in lockstep agreement with her.   We have at least 7 families out of the 12 who are all for it.     

For the moment, AAU is still saying that it plans on going forward with its volleyball nationals in Orlando next month.  They are saying no spectators, but each team will be given something like 10 "chaperone" passes (along with coaching staff).  So, basically, one parent.  This event typically draws 10's of thousands of people.

Personally, I don't believe it will happen; it would be a spectacularly bad idea.  I know that many of the bigger clubs have already pulled out and others are following.  In most places, teams aren't even practicing.  Also, I don't think that any colleges would be recruiting, so it would lose that part of its appeal (which is significant).

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The coach of my son's 13U travel baseball team found a tournament going on in Pigeon Forge the weekend of May 23.    Because of all of the cancelled tournaments this spring, he really wants the team to drive the 11 hours and go play in it.    The reaction of the parents has been educational.    We have the one family with the father who got it 4 weeks of feeling terrible but not hospitalized bad who are opposed.    My wife is as negatively wound up as I have ever seen her and taking it out on me like it was my idea, because I am not in lockstep agreement with her.   We have at least 7 families out of the 12 who are all for it.     

I can imagine the dialog.  Personally, I dont get it.  We can't keep our meat plants open because of virus spread but all in on summer sports?

[GooooMarquette]

The coach of my son's 13U travel baseball team found a tournament going on in Pigeon Forge the weekend of May 23.    Because of all of the cancelled tournaments this spring, he really wants the team to drive the 11 hours and go play in it.    The reaction of the parents has been educational.    We have the one family with the father who got it 4 weeks of feeling terrible but not hospitalized bad who are opposed.    My wife is as negatively wound up as I have ever seen her and taking it out on me like it was my idea, because I am not in lockstep agreement with her.   We have at least 7 families out of the 12 who are all for it.     

According to the most recent numbers from Johns Hopkins, cases in TN have increased by 36% from last week to this. Not leveling off, and certainly not decreasing. I agree with your wife.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-caseloads-states-b24899a3-286e-4ea9-bd71-0e88ed645e68.html

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The coach of my son's 13U travel baseball team found a tournament going on in Pigeon Forge the weekend of May 23.    Because of all of the cancelled tournaments this spring, he really wants the team to drive the 11 hours and go play in it.    The reaction of the parents has been educational.    We have the one family with the father who got it 4 weeks of feeling terrible but not hospitalized bad who are opposed.    My wife is as negatively wound up as I have ever seen her and taking it out on me like it was my idea, because I am not in lockstep agreement with her.   We have at least 7 families out of the 12 who are all for it.     

Tower, is this part of a league team or just 12 kids playing? 

Personally, I'd wait.  Our first tournament is now June 6th/7th and wouldn't be surprised if that is cancelled.

The thing to remember is that everyone is in the same boat.  The Lugnuts aren't getting an advantage over the Carburetors, cuz neither team is playing.

Side note:  if anyone is a youth baseball coach, there is a ton of instruction being put out my pro, college and high school coaches.   USA baseball has 2 or so sessions a week, tons of other options too.  If anyone is interested, pm me and i can get you more info.

[tower912]

It is a travel team organized through a fairly large local baseball factory.     Originally had double digit tourneys scheduled for the year, as well as 1-2 games a week against other teams from local travel ball organizations.     Week night games will probably start after June 1.   

For the record, our coach was unable to get 10 families to commit to yes, so the team will not be going to Pigeon Forge. 

[CreightonWarrior]

These youth sport tournament directors are way too greedy to not go after the paychecks they get from these things.

Safety is not their number one concern.