Bracketology 2020-2021

[MU82]

Even if Carton is eligible, I will be surprised if MU makes the tourney. Wojo performs in-line with his pre-season projected computer numbers, and those have us solidly outside a bid with Carton factored in. He'll need another horse to get a 10 seed. Mane or a late grad transfer would do it.

EFR ... I'm sure it's been posted somewhere, but which numbers project us in pergatory with  Carton?

[Viper]

Even if Carton is eligible, I will be surprised if MU makes the tourney. Wojo performs in-line with his pre-season projected computer numbers, and those have us solidly outside a bid with Carton factored in. He'll need another horse to get a 10 seed. Mane or a late grad transfer would do it.

Specific to Lunardi, doesn’t he factor in all metrics when making his forecast? Hence, his 10-seed for MU would be based on something measurable I would think.

[BCHoopster]

Even if Carton is eligible, I will be surprised if MU makes the tourney. Wojo performs in-line with his pre-season projected computer numbers, and those have us solidly outside a bid with Carton factored in. He'll need another horse to get a 10 seed. Mane or a late grad transfer would do it.

Hard to figure out projected numbers right now as there are like 200 kids in the draft and only 60 places drafted, so names will be coming off that list including Bailey
shortly,  plus it seems there are new transfers everyday so rosters are still very fluid.  I expect Mane to go to college as well, the longer the pandemic the better it is
for Mane to come to MU.  I am sure Wojo will keep 1 scholarship open if he gets 1 more recruit, of course, that recruit might take Mane out of the picture.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

EFR ... I'm sure it's been posted somewhere, but which numbers project us in pergatory with  Carton?

I suspect he is referring to Bart Torvik's T-Rank. There's a tool that lets you add a transfer to any roster and it calculates their ranking for the next season. IIRC, that tool puts us in the low 50s which is likely an NIT caliber team.

Personally, I think the tool is fun to play with, but less than accurate. It was pointed out that according to the tool, adding a player like Jose Perez makes the team worse. Unless the player is going to cause chemistry issues, there is no way adding a player over an empty scholarship should make a team worse.

Also, if you look at his rankings for all incoming transfers (so sit out transfers who sat out last season and grad transfers this season) he has some very odd rankings. Maybe he's right, but you'll never convince me that guys like Rich Kelly (#8) and Ian DuBose (#12) are better than guys like David Jenkins Jr (#13), Cartier Diarra (#25), Seth Towns (#33), Matt Haarms (#39), and DJ Carton (#41). Maybe he's moneyballing and seeing something that no one else sees, but I don't think he does a good enough job accounting for the level of competition that players faced when putting up big numbers.

http://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&year=trans&minmin=0&start=-11101&end=trans0501

[brewcity77]

I suspect he is referring to Bart Torvik's T-Rank. There's a tool that lets you add a transfer to any roster and it calculates their ranking for the next season. IIRC, that tool puts us in the low 50s which is likely an NIT caliber team.

Personally, I think the tool is fun to play with, but less than accurate. It was pointed out that according to the tool, adding a player like Jose Perez makes the team worse. Unless the player is going to cause chemistry issues, there is no way adding a player over an empty scholarship should make a team worse.

I'm not sure about that. If the player is going to get minutes over more efficient players and the coach keeps running that player out regardless of what they are doing on the court, I certainly think it can make the team worse.

I get the on paper argument of "the coach will play the best players" but on more than one occasion, there's certainly reason to question whether that is truly the case.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm not sure about that. If the player is going to get minutes over more efficient players and the coach keeps running that player out regardless of what they are doing on the court, I certainly think it can make the team worse.

I get the on paper argument of "the coach will play the best players" but on more than one occasion, there's certainly reason to question whether that is truly the case.

That isn't a case of the player making the team worse. That is a case of the coach making the team worse.

[MU82]

I suspect he is referring to Bart Torvik's T-Rank. There's a tool that lets you add a transfer to any roster and it calculates their ranking for the next season. IIRC, that tool puts us in the low 50s which is likely an NIT caliber team.

Personally, I think the tool is fun to play with, but less than accurate. It was pointed out that according to the tool, adding a player like Jose Perez makes the team worse. Unless the player is going to cause chemistry issues, there is no way adding a player over an empty scholarship should make a team worse.

Also, if you look at his rankings for all incoming transfers (so sit out transfers who sat out last season and grad transfers this season) he has some very odd rankings. Maybe he's right, but you'll never convince me that guys like Rich Kelly (#8) and Ian DuBose (#12) are better than guys like David Jenkins Jr (#13), Cartier Diarra (#25), Seth Towns (#33), Matt Haarms (#39), and DJ Carton (#41). Maybe he's moneyballing and seeing something that no one else sees, but I don't think he does a good enough job accounting for the level of competition that players faced when putting up big numbers.

http://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&year=trans&minmin=0&start=-11101&end=trans0501

Thanks for the explanation.

I'll worry about what we're "supposed to do" once we get to October and we know both who is on our team and who is on all the other teams.

And even then, I don't worry about that stuff too much ... because unless there are still coronavirus issues, we do still get to actually play games, right? NCAA bids aren't decided by Torvik, last I heard.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Specific to Lunardi, doesn’t he factor in all metrics when making his forecast? Hence, his 10-seed for MU would be based on something measurable I would think.

Not to my knowledge, Lunardi is simply a dart thrower.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I suspect he is referring to Bart Torvik's T-Rank. There's a tool that lets you add a transfer to any roster and it calculates their ranking for the next season. IIRC, that tool puts us in the low 50s which is likely an NIT caliber team.

Personally, I think the tool is fun to play with, but less than accurate. It was pointed out that according to the tool, adding a player like Jose Perez makes the team worse. Unless the player is going to cause chemistry issues, there is no way adding a player over an empty scholarship should make a team worse.

Also, if you look at his rankings for all incoming transfers (so sit out transfers who sat out last season and grad transfers this season) he has some very odd rankings. Maybe he's right, but you'll never convince me that guys like Rich Kelly (#8) and Ian DuBose (#12) are better than guys like David Jenkins Jr (#13), Cartier Diarra (#25), Seth Towns (#33), Matt Haarms (#39), and DJ Carton (#41). Maybe he's moneyballing and seeing something that no one else sees, but I don't think he does a good enough job accounting for the level of competition that players faced when putting up big numbers.

http://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&year=trans&minmin=0&start=-11101&end=trans0501

Yes this is what I'm referring to. I'll wait to see final roster construction & pre-season KenPom rankings, but those are usually fairly closely aligned. And Wojo usually performs almost exactly in-line with pre-season KenPom.

[Herman Cain]

I think that is vastly optimistic on their part. Taking a quick glance at the league, I felt there were four tiers. Villanova is alone at the top. UConn, St. John's, and Providence at a glance look like the next level and likely tourney teams. Then I think Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall are in a logjam fighting for bids. Butler, Georgetown, and DePaul look like the bottom tier for me, though I'll admit the Bulldogs seem to have a knack for overachieving their on-paper talent (just like Providence in that second tier sometimes tends to underachieve).

Creighton has their whole  starting lineup other than Ty Shon Returning , and  Denzel Mahoney Big East Sixth man of the year,  plus Epperson coming back from Injury, and finally Antwan Jones the Memphis Transfer coming on line after sitting out a year. They are going to be very strong again.

[brewcity77]

Creighton has their whole  starting lineup other than Ty Shon Returning , and  Denzel Mahoney Big East Sixth man of the year,  plus Epperson coming back from Injury, and finally Antwan Jones the Memphis Transfer coming on line after sitting out a year. They are going to be very strong again.

Other than a potential First Team All-American and the surefire preseason Big East Player of the Year? Yeah, that's not a loss at all.

Mahoney and Jefferson both declared for the draft as well, I don't expect them to stay in, but it's not unthinkable one or both could. But the loss of Alexander (not to mention Mintz) is enough. He was the best returning two-way player in the country and it wasn't close.

[WhiteTrash]

Other than a potential First Team All-American and the surefire preseason Big East Player of the Year? Yeah, that's not a loss at all.

I don't think he ever said it was not a loss.

Anyways,  Creighton will be better than MU, and it won't be close.

[MU82]

I don't think he ever said it was not a loss.

Anyways,  Creighton will be better than MU, and it won't be close.

The cool thing is that, coronavirus willing, we'll actually get to see instead of firing off opinions.

[WhiteTrash]

The cool thing is that, coronavirus willing, we'll actually get to see instead of firing off opinions.

Come on.. this is a fan board, this is where we fire off opinions.

I agree, who thought Creighton would have been on track for a 1 or 2 seed this year?

I hope MU makes the Tournament but I think it's unfair to Wojo and the players to expect it.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Per Joe Lunardi
May 12, 2020

1 Seed Villanova
3 Seed Creighton
10 Seed UConn Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Marquette Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Seton Hall Last 4 In
             Providence First Four Out
             Butler Next Four Out

[MarquetteMike1977]

Per Joe Lunardi
April 28, 2020
1 Seed Villanova
3 Seed Creighton
10 Seed Marquette
11 Seed UConn
11 Seed Seton Hall
11 Seed Providence

Per Joe Lunardi
May 12, 2020

1 Seed Villanova
3 Seed Creighton
10 Seed UConn Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Marquette Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Seton Hall Last 4 In
             Providence First Four Out
             Butler Next Four Out

[WhiteTrash]

Per Joe Lunardi
May 12, 2020

1 Seed Villanova
3 Seed Creighton
10 Seed UConn Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Marquette Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Seton Hall Last 4 In
             Providence First Four Out
             Butler Next Four Out

That would be Wojo's best coaching job yet. Although I wouldn't bet on it, I'd gladly take it.

[MU82]

We're in!

[Johnny B]

We're in!

No doubt!

[MU82]

Now we can say that Wojo has gotten us to the NCAA tourney 4 times in 5 years, right?

And given that we would have gotten to the Elite 8 this year, and we obviously will get to at least the Sweet 16 next season ... wow! ... what a coach!

[Johnny B]

Now we can say that Wojo has gotten us to the NCAA tourney 4 times in 5 years, right?

And given that we would have gotten to the Elite 8 this year, and we obviously will get to at least the Sweet 16 next season ... wow! ... what a coach!

Arent u pro jo mike

[MU82]

Arent u pro jo mike

I am a ShoMeMoJo.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Per Joe Lunardi
May 12, 2020

1 Seed Villanova
3 Seed Creighton
10 Seed UConn Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Marquette Last 4 Byes
11 Seed Seton Hall Last 4 In
             Providence First Four Out
             Butler Next Four Out

Per Joe Lunardi
June 3, 2020

1 Seed  Villanova
3 Seed  Creighton
10 Seed UConn
11 Seed Marquette   Last Four In
11 Seed Seton Hall   Last Four In
             Providence  Next Four Out

[MarquetteMike1977]

Per Joe Lunardi
June 3, 2020

1 Seed  Villanova
3 Seed  Creighton
10 Seed UConn
11 Seed Marquette   Last Four In
11 Seed Seton Hall   Last Four In
             Providence  Next Four Out

Per Joe Lunardi
June 24, 2020

1 Seed Villanova
3 Seed Creighton
10 Seed UConn Last Four Byes
11 Seed Marquette Last Four In
11 Seed Seton Hall Last Four In
             Providence First Four Out
             Butler Next Four Out

[Galway Eagle]

Per Joe Lunardi
June 24, 2020

1 Seed Villanova
3 Seed Creighton
10 Seed UConn Last Four Byes
11 Seed Marquette Last Four In
11 Seed Seton Hall Last Four In
             Providence First Four Out
             Butler Next Four Out

Yeesh not a great year for preseason hype